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TraderMayne - What It Was Like Trading Crypto In 2013
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Yo yo, Mr. Main. I'm good, man. How you doing?
SPEAKER_02Beat you up on behalf of all the OGs, man, all the plumbers. Dude, that was nuts.
SPEAKER_00How about it, huh?
SPEAKER_02That was a good fucking tweet, man. That was a good fucking tweet. I like I think the follow-on engagement, like, yeah, you got a lot of quote tweets, but just the conversation it started, it was like the entirety of CT for the last 24 hours.
SPEAKER_00Are you offended? Were you offended by that clip?
SPEAKER_02No. Um, I mean, first of all, like, I know what you're doing, but like I'm a I'm a basketball guy like you, bro. Like, I'm a LeBron fan. I think Michael Jordan played against plumbers, dude. And Michael Jordan fans think, you know, the guys before him, like Bill Russell's got 11 rings. It's like, yeah, but there's like eight teams in the league. You know what I mean? So I I totally get it, but I am here to defend my fellow plumbers and uh happy to go into some war stories and talk about some of the things we had to deal with because uh at the end of the day, it's just a different game, really. That's what it is. And I think that's what ultimately your tweet was about, or your your clip. It's a circular argument. Like everyone's always gonna feel this way.
SPEAKER_00I think if you put Grayson Allen in the Bill Russell era, he would have like 20 rings and he'd be the logo.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, like Giannis is going for 80, 80 point triple, double.
SPEAKER_00Grayson Allen would be the logo if he played in the John Stockton era. Okay, here's my actual take. I do want to talk a little bit of lore, and we'll talk a little, a little active crypto. I think my actual take is that every era will think the prior era was super easy with hindsight and like new tooling, right? Like we think 24 was plumbers, 24 thinks 21, 21 was plumbers, but 24 thinks 21 was, 21 thinks 2017 was 2017 thinks 2013 was. AI Mania thinks.com was easy, dot com things like mortgage boom of 80s was easy, so on so forth. My example was like if you threw like Peterbot, who's the best Fortnite player in the world into Fortnite season one 2016, he would be like, I mean, he'd probably go three years without losing a game because building was brand new, and he's been building for like 20 years or whatever, 10 years, however long the game has been been been out. And so I think the same thing is generally true for markets because it's like okay, it looks so easy now, but at the time nobody knew how it was gonna play out, no one knew how to use the tooling, the concepts were new, the ideas were new relative to where you are in the cycle. And so I think this is my this is my actual take. Um that I think makes the most sense is we'll just do this forever after the next I'll be a plumber to the next bull run to the next bull run to the next bull run. I I think it's my take.
SPEAKER_02I think it's a fair take. Um the game changes, right? I think the biggest difference between like this and the basketball argument, right, is LeBron can't go back to Jordan's era and we'll never know. Where there are still OG traders around today who were playing back in those prior eras and are still performing well. I think ultimately, if you're good, you're just good. You know, like Michael Jordan would be a good player today. Would he be the greatest of all time? I personally don't think so. But Michael Jordan was good at basketball, and with the game rules setup that he had at the time, he was the best of his era. And I think many of the good traders today would do well in prior cycles. Absolutely. Like I think if you're talented and good, you're gonna figure it out, right? I think you could take a smart, talented person who's driven and you can put them into almost anything and they're gonna figure it out. If they're good, they're good. And I think that's true with trading as well. Um, I just think it's different. It's so hard to compare these different eras. I mean, I was around back in 2013-14, but like I had no idea what I was doing. Uh, if I had the knowledge I had in 2017 and 2013, uh, I think we'd be having this stream. Well, I'm on a yacht in the south of France. You were trading in 2013? That's when I first bought Bitcoin. But I had no idea what I was doing, dude. Like, I bought Bitcoin when Bitcoin was like anywhere from like 10 to like $100. And then I was using that Bitcoin to buy random altcoins on very shady exchanges where you would just send your Bitcoin there and like wait and pray that it showed up, and then you would buy some random altcoin, the exchange would go debunked. I lost money on Mt. Gox, like uh I gambled a lot on on websites that you could use to like play poker. I played a game called Just Dice with like what at the time was hundreds of bitcoins, bro. But but like then it was like nothing, like it didn't mean anything. And so I caught the very end of that bull run, but I had no idea what I was doing. But like the the biggest change for me outside of yeah, okay, there's more coins now, is everything is verifiable. The tooling, the on-chain stuff now is amazing. Yeah, that does, in a sense, make it more competitive because you can see, okay, this coin's bundled, I'm not gonna touch it, right? We didn't have that same info flow in prior cycles, like it was um there's much more information asymmetry going on in some of these old cycles, which inherently meant more risk. Yes, there were less coins to pick from, and many of them went up a lot more. I mean, fuck, Shiba Inu was a $40 billion meme coin, dude. Axi Infinity, like you know, Frank pointed out yesterday, is like, you know, who's buying this? It's like, but these things did go up for many months. So there were opportunities to make money, but the same people that lose money today, I think would probably lose money back then too, because they don't take profit, they round trip. And I think the important thread here to placate everyone is a lot of what's happening in the industry today is due to OGs paving the way, just like in sports. Uh, you know, the exchanges, the tooling, some of the OGs run some of the most successful crypto companies or involved in crypto projects today that make them so awesome. They were traders back in the day. And they're like, this is what I would want if I was a trader today, and then they go and build that. You have guys like like Brian from Layer Zero. Like, this is an OG crypto trader who's now made an extremely successful business in crypto. You have Kobe taking over Coinbase trading, hopefully, to make it better. You sure you can throw me in there if you want to.
SPEAKER_00Oh, yeah, I've thrown you in there.
SPEAKER_02What the fuck? I think a lot of the new traders, like it's that saying, you stand on the shoulders of giants, but you also stand on the dead bodies of all the people who tried and failed. There's a lot of them, man. Like, I got a lot of friends who aren't around anymore. Some of them, straight up, you know, are literally not around anymore. Uh, and I think it's just, you know, it's just a different game, but you know, I think that's like you said, always how the OGs are gonna feel. You're gonna be unk one day, and you're gonna look back and you're like, dude, back in the you know, pump fun as stand trenches, like you guys don't even know what you were missing, man.
SPEAKER_00All right. What was the easiest cycle objectively? I know the eras. What was the easiest cycle relative to the time, knowledge, skill required at relative all of that?
SPEAKER_02Um I think for I'll say for me as a as a preface, just so I don't get lamp bassed. I think 2021, the reason being is by 2021, we had like stable coins were prevalent everywhere. Um, and obviously you could short the market at this point, you could de-risk into stable coins. 2017 was easy in some ways, just by being around, and prices were so cheap on some of this stuff, but you still had to hold the right stuff, Bitcoin, and not round-trip it. Like we had 80, 90% drawdowns on Bitcoin, not altcoins on Bitcoin. Like Bitcoin used to go down 80, 90 percent. Um, but the thing about 2017 that people I think are downplaying is you didn't really have um as easy of a way to short really until BitMEX came around, which was like more 2018, and you didn't have stable coins to go into. So, like the base currency was Bitcoin. So you were stuck in Bitcoin, it was a completely different math, and Bitcoin was a lot less liquid, a lot less efficient. The entire market was less efficient. So Bitcoin would have would trade like an altcoin sometimes does, right? 10, 20 candles in either direct direction, illiquid wicks. And if Bitcoin ripped and you're holding an altcoin, that altcoin could nuke 20, 30 percent just on Bitcoin strength. So that rotation game was a lot harder. Where if you don't know what's going on, you can just sit in stables in 2021. Interesting. So that will be my bet, but I was no longer uh what I would consider like a rookie by 2021. I like kind of knew what I was doing, so I think I kind of look at it through rose-colored glasses. Like I was expecting the bull run. I knew the top was gonna come in eventually. I wasn't bought into the Kool-Aid. Let's put it this way: the easiest cycle is your second one. That was the first cycle, no matter what it is, it's gonna be hard as fuck because you have no idea what you're doing. You're gonna get annihilated. Easiest one is your second one if you were paying attention.
SPEAKER_00The 2024 is my second one. 2021, I thought this was just like the way the world, like the world was just gonna run on NFTs. Forever. Yeah, and like it's could never stop.
SPEAKER_02Dude, I I I was longing like the worst the coins I was longing in 2017 and stuff, bro. On the exchanges, they don't even exist anymore. The exchanges are gone, the coins are dead. You know, the people who launched them are in jail. It's just like I I learned my lesson in 2020. I was like, Oh, I want to stack Bitcoin.
SPEAKER_00You know, for being damn, you were here in 2030. When is your Twitter account? Was it broke?
SPEAKER_02Is that your first name?
SPEAKER_00Trader main was your OG name, or no? No. What was OG name?
SPEAKER_02I was crypto main only, bro. I mean, I thought I was I thought I was gonna diversify. I was like, you know, I can't be pigeonholed to only crypto. Here I am 12 years later.
SPEAKER_00That's so good. I feel like out of the cohort of people that have existed for this long on CT, you are one of the more optimistic people about new stuff. Like I remember not that long ago, we were doing streams and you were like you were in our FF and you're like putting Fibonacci lines on memes, and we were chart, we were like charting memes, go like you you're pretty uh open to the new stuff that comes around on crypto twitter. Like, why are you not giga jaded?
SPEAKER_02I got a lot of my life left to be a grumpy old man, you know, and like I always grew up with younger brothers and stuff, so I always wanted to help my younger brothers, you know, like get into stuff. I thought it was fun. I'm excited about because like I want as the torch gets passed naturally, and there's a new guard that comes in, it's inevitable. Like, who wants to be that grumpy old guy who's like, this person doesn't know what they're talking about, like commenting on your tweets and stuff? I'm like, bro, like, like this was us one day. Like, I remember being on Twitter asking bigger accounts, like, what the fuck was up? And I was very lucky that there was a few people uh who like shared info, shared alpha, and um started me on my journey. It was a lot harder to find information back then. So I've kind of tried to make it my goal is like uh, you know, I'm the in the RPG, I'm like the fucking guy you go to get your like beginner quests, and I'm like, yo, bro, go this way. Here's a little sword, here's a little shield, like get after it, bro. Um, because like that's that's what got me on my journey, and if I can do that for other people, and uh, you know, it's like this is and I'm here all day, dude. I can never leave. Like, why am I gonna be miserable about it?
SPEAKER_00Okay, you might fry me for this, but uh I guess I'm showing my age. Can you tell me who is this that you tweeted?
SPEAKER_02That's Ian Belina.
SPEAKER_00I don't really I don't I've never seen this guy in my life.
SPEAKER_02This is does he look like a plumber to you, bro? Nah. That's a that that guy might have the same suit you got on. I've never seen this guy in my life. So Ian Bellina is like a OG, like ICO, like original paid kind of KOL shiller. So like way back in the day, there wasn't even any paid shit, right? Uh-huh. But then in like 2017, and we got this in 2021 too, but we had like ICOs, new coins, right? And they would pay people like BitBoys, and he think of him like a Bitboy, I guess. He was like kind of an earlier BitBoy, not nearly BitBoy had a legendary prime, new generation. Yeah, this guy was not nearly as legendary as BitBoy, but this guy was, you know, had an audience, and he would tell you that, you know, this coin is the new coin. You buy an idiot, you get instantly annihilated on day one. Um, so yeah, but he's a he's a legend. He caught a case, though. Like a lot of our criminals went to jail. So uh I think that's something that the new guard gotta be ready for. Criminal prosecution in crypto moves kind of slow. Like, I think he caught a case only in the last couple years for crimes he committed, like several years before.
SPEAKER_00D Nap, let's look him up after this. Um, you think okay, this this might I mean this sincerely, but like you think if uh John McAfee was on CT right now doing the lists, people would be like screaming he's a scammer and all of this. Like I saw some posts, people were kind of shitting on him in in reply to my plumber stuff.
SPEAKER_02Bro, so I'm gonna get some I'm gonna get roasted for this. I think people think Kobe Bryant's better at basketball than he was because he's passed away now. Is that a crazy take?
SPEAKER_00I I think you're I specifically think you're wrong because I'm a Kobe stan, but like you get you do get legendary people in the chat are gonna be like Kobe's amazing. People in the chat are saying yes, you get legendary laurels.
SPEAKER_02Kobe is in my top 10, but people I have people tell me Kobe's like number two, and I'm like, okay, come on. Like Kobe's not better braun, like Kobe's not better in a lot of people. Kobe's not better, arguably not better than Shaq. Um, but I love Kobe, but I think because he's passed away, people look with rose-colored glasses, being like, okay, Kobe was the goat.
SPEAKER_00Well, you can't like hurt the image anymore. Like it's funny.
SPEAKER_02Of course, John McCaffee is legendary in many ways. I mean, he hacked the US government by selling them a bunch of computers with McCaffey antivirus installed. And he used it as like a Trojan horse to get like information on the US government. Like he may or may not have killed his neighbor. Like he's you know, was on a boat floating around in international waters, so he couldn't get caught for like crimes he was on trial for, and he may or may not have killed himself. But the stuff he did in crypto was absolutely unbelievably max level grift. Okay. Like, this is like a the biggest, this is like some big billionaire on CT today tweeting out their favorite altcoin every Friday, like their Jim Kramer Mad Money. Like it was not, but people bought it because we're like, oh, he's rich. Like, this is what I mean about the information asymmetry was different. My favorite altcoin is so it's so dude. You can't you can't see through the like they were it's so much more opaque back then, you know what I mean? So it's like, well, wait a minute, maybe he knows what he's talking about. He's got a bunch of dough. Where now it's like verifiable, it's like, okay, does this guy got it or not? No, I can go check this guy's on-chain history. He rugs everything after it goes to 10 mil, like he's trash.
SPEAKER_00This is actually uh something really good of the copy trading public wallet era, I think, is you could verify if people are rich or not, if they're LARPing or not, if they really make money or not.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, so the only way you could really verify back in the day if you were rich, I mean, some people would flash balances and whatnot, but that was easily fake. On BitMEX, you had slash position. This was what got Flood very, very uh kind of notoriety back in the BitMEX troll box. But you know, people would be talking shit. It's like, oh, I think Bitcoin's gonna crash here. Flood would be like scone up, dude. Yeah, fuck you, you're a fucking bear, retarded bear. And he'd like slash position, which shows you your actual position that you have on BitMEX right now. You can't fake it. And he would be long some ungodly amount of Bitcoin, and just like the other person would shut the fuck up immediately. Um, so like there was like some things where you could, you know, make it obvious. You could push around an altcoin, you could do some things, but it's not the same now where it's like, dude, here's my address, it's verifiable. I've made all this money on chain. It's nothing like that was really existing back then. Slash a lot easier to LARP back then.
SPEAKER_00Slash position that Bitcoin BitMEX Trollbox.
SPEAKER_02Yes, bro. Flood was like the legend in the BitMex Troll Box back in the day. Because like this, I would never heard about this. The 6k floor broke. So you'd go like slash position and then you type in like XBT for Bitcoin, and Flood would belong like 5,000 like fucking Bitcoin. Like at the time, this was like you know, five mil, like or or sometimes even more, eight figure positions. But like when you think about it like quantitatively, how much Bitcoin that is today, like you know, it was it was crazy. It was crazy. Whoa. But that that was like the that was like the equivalent of what you guys have today being like, you know, show me your wallet. Like that was the in the BitMEX days.
SPEAKER_00Wow. Do you think like do you think like the social dynamics putting an ever increasing weight on not how good of a poster you are, not how funny you are, but what's your PL is good or bad for the future of finance Twitter, if you will.
SPEAKER_02So I mean it depends like what the goal is. You know what I mean? I obviously think if you don't have some verifiable proof that you actually make money doing the thing you're talking about all day and telling other people that you do, you know, why should anyone listen to you? Like it is it is one of those games where it's like, you know, like if you're so good at it, like, okay, do you have any evidence? Um I I think there's a lot of it some people do it with ulterior motives, you know what I mean? It's like they're flashing the PL and whatnot, and they're like, yeah, but you gotta come and trade on my Axiom link, or you know, you gotta come copy me on, and there's financial incentive for them to inflate what they do. But like trading's like 1v1, dude. Like the only thing that really, the only person that should really care about your PL is you. Uh, you know, and if you want to share that online, you know, do it. I mean, I think that's why the proof's in the pudding for many of this stuff. I know a lot of people give guys like you know, Frank a lot of shit. It's like, dude, but like the numbers are the numbers. You know what I mean? Like, try to tell like an NBA player, it's like, ah, he wasn't that good, so he scored 20,000 points. Like, how many points do you think DeMar DeRozan has?
SPEAKER_00He averaged 20 for a lot of years. He's like how many, how many do you think? I mean, I think it I don't even know. He averaged 20 for how many years in a row? 15,000, 20,000? Yeah. 17, 5.
SPEAKER_02How how how high do you think that is on the list?
SPEAKER_00Do you think like do you think he's top 50? Dude, I think he's top 50 all time, which is disgusting. He's definitely top he's definitely top 100. I think he's top 100 for sure, which is disgusting. What if I told you I think he's top 100, maybe top 50. I don't think top 25.
SPEAKER_02Damar DeRozan has more points than Paul Pierce. Does that sound crazy to you?
SPEAKER_00Oh, who else?
SPEAKER_02Who else? What if I told you that DeMar DeRozan is a good one? 26,000 points, bro.
SPEAKER_00Who's who are the three people below him?
SPEAKER_02He's 16th all time, bro.
SPEAKER_0016th all time?
SPEAKER_02He's above Steph Curry, Paul Pierce, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett. Oh, Tim Duncan? Dude, he's gonna pass Hakeem Alajwan this year. But like you'd never guess that. But like at the end of the day, can you say DeMar DeRozan's a bad basketball player? It's like, I guess not. You know what I mean?
SPEAKER_00He's unsigned, he's unsigned, a free agent.
SPEAKER_02The numbers are the numbers, bro.
SPEAKER_00Oh my god.
SPEAKER_02So I like it's it's pretty hard with what the tech you have today. Like, obviously, here's where I'm not as knowledgeable the sidewall things. I made a comment about a guy named Jack Duvall on streaming.
SPEAKER_00I was just there was just spamming asking him about Jack Duval.
SPEAKER_02And my opinion of Jack Duval is this I saw an inverse bra thread where he was going back and forth with one of Jing Tao's 75. Accounts and he was basically calling him out saying, like, hey, you made 50k, but we all know, like, you just post on your main wallet, you buy it on your side wallets, and then you know, scam that way. I couldn't even really tell you how exactly I work. And then you got responded to by Fat Duval, which is not him apparently, but I thought that was hilarious. So I read that thread, and then I made an entire opinion about this guy who I have no actual information on. But like you can tell me about that. Like, is that not an easy way that people can work? Like, uh well, I think if you are flexing that you made 50k, but the way you do it is you have a tracked wallet, you buy a coin, so people who track your wallet buy it, but you've already loaded up on side wallets and you're selling into that buy. So your your tracked wallet maybe makes some money, but really you make a ton of money on the side wallets. That to me is shady and immoral.
SPEAKER_00It's agreed.
SPEAKER_02Well, people are mad at your take. Well, I know he like tweeted at me and stuff, and I'm like, bro, I just want you to know, like, I don't know who you are and I don't care. What was his tweet?
SPEAKER_00What was his tweet?
SPEAKER_02Oh, he's like, I heard you're saying some things that are not very nice about me. Come chat to me on voice chat or something. He said no. I just said, dude, my entire opinion of you came from an inverse breast screenshot.
SPEAKER_00Like, uh hello, Trader Main. It's come to my attention that you have made some not so bullish comments about me, and I think you have the wrong idea about me. Come join VC. Let's trench some new pairs. Yeah. You know, I think Jack T ball is pretty funny. Like, I I shit on this broadcast. I mean, because I think he's just like go ahead.
SPEAKER_02If you're getting shit, you're doing something. I just like again, like, I don't know what the I assume the new gen hate the bundle sidewallet guys, you know what I mean? The same way that the old gen hated the guys who would just like shill coins that they were paid to shill and then talk about you know being rich and blah blah blah. It's like, dude, but you're paid to get this coin, you got it at a crazy discount, you're selling at the moment on your followers' head tops. Like, it's the same thing, it's just different, a different way to play the game. But it's just like everyone's got a moral barometer. I I know what I'm willing. Like, I think sidewallet bundle uh bundle raping is way worse than like posting a rain bet slip. You know what I mean?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I agree.
SPEAKER_02Some people are treating like casino shills like they're the devil. I'm like, you don't have to sign up and use the casino. You're buying this guy's coins and he's dumping it on you. Like, I don't know.
SPEAKER_00Uh Duvall independent, but take in a vacuum is I think I think uh the buying on main, selling on sides is absolutely no different than like writing some super bullish thread and then just slamming sell from some wallet. No one it's the same, it's garbage, it's it's bad. That's yeah. And no the method change, tooling changes, people will find a way to do the same.
SPEAKER_02Arthur Hayes does this today, like with his newsletter.
SPEAKER_00I know 5,000 guys.
SPEAKER_02You weren't even there. Forget the slash position. I mean, this exchange, we were paying for Arthur's lifestyle, like they knew where your stops were. Or to submission air windows, like when the market got volatile, and you're like, holy shit, I better put a stop loss on. Uh, it just doesn't work anymore. The exchange is just bricked, by the way. Like, it's just bricked. Oh, you might have been trading on this exchange as like a North American person while they were under investigation. The FBI might contact you. Like, like, there's a lot of shit that was going on back in the day with these exchanges where there was no on-chain. Like, we had no choice but to have counterparty risk. Shut up, counterparty TV. But like, we had no choice. I'm sending my money to some shady fucking Chinese exchange so I can long some bullshit altcoin because I saw some random thread on a forum, not even on Twitter, on a forum. Okay. And I'm just like hoping my fucking Bitcoin shows up there. I buy the altcoin and then I get I hope it gets listed on like Bitter X. Because that's legitimacy now. Bitter X also bankrupt, closed. Uh, like it was just a different world where now with FOMO, I don't even have the bridge. You know what I mean? That's crazy. So I I think like just to go back to our original point, like the game's different. You guys have landmines we didn't have to deal with, we had landmines you didn't have to deal with. There was a smaller pool of assets and a smaller pool of people back then. Like crypto was novel back in 2014. 2017 is novel. The president has launched a meme coin. We have the Clarity Act, you know, attempting to get passed in the Senate or Congress, wherever it is at this point. It's just different. You know what I mean? So I don't think one is harder than the other. Uh, because the same people who lost money today, I think would lose money back then. And I think people who are really good today would have adapted to the game uh back in the day. And the people who are still around now from the prior days are already rich. So clearly they're pretty good at what they're doing, or they're still able to make money now. I personally think it's easier to trade Bitcoin, ETH, Solana, hype now with leverage than it ever was.
SPEAKER_00Um just because they're bigger, they trade more normal.
SPEAKER_02They're liquid, they're efficient now. Yeah, like they're unbelievably efficient. There's so much money, there's passive flows, there's predictable trends. It's less volatile. Like Bitcoin doesn't go up as much or down as much. So I personally, as like a like a day trader or swing trader with perps, I find it easier. But I do not have the skills for the meme coin game, like straight up. That'd be like telling me, like, you know, some player in the 80s being like, Oh, yeah, there's this 3.9 now or whatever it came, late 70s. This this shoot from behind here, this worth three points now. They'd be like, What the fuck, dude? Three points for shooting it from here. Like, I only have the fucking oopsie daisy two-hand, underhand shot, dude. I can't be shooting from here. So I don't know, man. It's just a different game, dude.
SPEAKER_00So what what so what now? Where what what do you think happens now? Like, I uh what happens with crypto from here? We're in such a weird spot where I you know, I'll give you my view if if you want. It's like um I think most of the downside risk at this point to the Bitcoin is like fairly uh negated. Like, okay, cool. Maybe we get wiped to 50, but like I don't know how much worse can it really get? What does that even mean if we go to 50 from here? Like RR, especially for the last leg, is kind of like whatever on the downside. I think the problem with bit BTC is not um who's left to sell, but more like why would you buy it? I think there's some interesting thought processes, like an you know, on one hand, it's completely uncorrelated to the AI trade, which has basically become like the stock market. It's kind of hard to get exposure to risk that isn't betting on super intelligence. And so Bitcoin maybe has some upside there. I also find myself getting excited about on-chain again. I think this whole social trading thing is like really interesting. I'm seeing more people on TikTok talking about crypto than I am on Twitter, which is like wild. I'm seeing the kimchi get talked to, you know, people streamers are talking about kimchi. Like I just like sort of see it the go, see it playing out that yeah, this could be huge. It could be like what people thought day trading would be or what people thought Forex would be. And so the on-chain thing I get, but you need we're at some point we're gonna need some massive capital inflows. And I love to say that it doesn't matter what Bitcoin does, but it it does matter. And then what it's gonna take for those capital inflows to come to Bitcoin to me is like such a massive question mark. So I don't know, is it the lost decade? Like, where are we?
SPEAKER_02So I think like I I can almost consider myself retail-ish when it comes to the on-chain stuff because I don't do it that much. Yep. I think on-chain this cycle is way more attractive for someone like me. And uh if I'm a proxy for retail who's even got less knowledge about crypto, with the fact that we have like Pump Fun app, FOMO app, like I hated the idea of having a bridge last cycle. It's the worst. It is the worst. Like, and um I talked to some guys like, dude, you have to have money on every exchange, on every every um chain. Like, it's the only way to capitalize on all of these opportunities. I was like, Well, I'm not doing that. So the fact alone that that barrier to entry is gone, I think is is huge to your point. Um, I think on-chain is not going anywhere. I don't think meme coins are going anywhere. I don't have the same view of memes as like Ansom does, for example. Yeah, only because I think that he's reward first, not risk first. Of course, meme coins are one of the very few places where absolutely it's a lottery, dude. Like you can turn a little bit of money into a lot. We've seen it. Like, we've seen it a ton of times, but there's a little bit of like survivorship bias. Yeah, yeah, fair. Like most people get destroyed in memes, like it just it is what it is. Most of you are gonna get annihilated. If crypto is worthless in general, meme coins, a derivative of crypt of like the majors, are even more worthless, right? So if you're gonna get rugged on some altcoin that's got actual stuff going on, not that many do, but some of these coins even make money and they go down 89%. What hopes does your meme coin specifically of going up? And then also the culture of meme coins, I think some of like there's some work to do. Like, if you want it to be more like the old days where it was plumbers, it's like, well, guess what? We used to do in the old days, we used to hold shit. So, yeah, there was a lot of stuff that went up a thousand X, but most people round trip because they held too long, as opposed to now where I feel people like people sell too early. Yeah, it's like the inverse. People can barely hold anything past like a few days. Like, I'm on the FOMO app, I'm looking at like the top traders' hold time, it's like 48 hours. I'm like, what the fuck is this, even right?
SPEAKER_03Yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_02So I do think that that, like, if you want to have runners like we had back in the day, there was less coins, obviously, but like people held shit. People were more like Murad, like they found a coin, they made it their personality, they believed in everything that they were saying, and they held it. And it might have gone up a lot, but the vast majority of these people completely round-tripped it. The most exciting thing to me happening in crypto right now is the perpification of everything. Like, I think we're seeing these major companies, Kraken Coinbase, Robin Hood, Polymarket, all heading towards this nexus of like being the everything apps. You can do basically everything there, right? Like you're gonna be able to bank, you're gonna be able to trade perps, you're gonna be able to trade single name stocks, you're gonna be able to trade pre-IPO markets, you can be able to trade what color you know, shirt Thread Guy's gonna wear on his stream 2029 when he's you're streaming to millions. Like, that's just what it's gonna be. And I think that's a really cool use case for crypto is like everything's becoming on-chain, verifiable, trading 24-7, 365. So, like, I'm optimistic about that stuff. I think the thing that's I think the worst thing we've seen kind of come from this is how much attention the AI trade took from us. I feel like a lot of money that we thought was coming our way went to like Texas and is in AI data centers, yeah. And like, you know, even we're even seeing Bitcoin miners, I think it was Riot, right? Did a deal with Anthropic compute, and it's like, damn, dude, like kind of makes sense. Like, why would you mine Bitcoin when at these prices it's not even like really profitable or barely when you could do compute and get nine billi going out 15 years? So I think that attention's got to come back to crypto in one way or another. And I think everything going on chain is one of the ways that happened, is is is more people who are trading. We're seeing this already with hyperliquid early days, right? Remember at the start of the Iran War when hyperliquid started trading oil, crazy, the trad market snapped to what hyperliquid was trading at over the weekend. I think that's a way that a lot of money comes back on chain, and then maybe we can go back in time. One of the best things about 2017 is when Bitcoin went up, because there was nowhere to go with your money, that money naturally flowed downstream into Ethereum, yeah, into Litecoin, into all of these other altcoins. So you remember that I'm sure you've seen the screenshot where it's like the majors go, then the mid-caps, then the low caps, and people have tried to replicate that now. It just doesn't the money doesn't flow like that anymore because the market structures change. You can take profit to stable coin. Maybe this is a kind of simile for that now, where it's like this money's just gonna be on chain now because people want to trade Tesla on the weekend and they're like, Oh, you know, what else can I do with this money? It's already on chain rather than wire it back to my bank. Like, maybe I'll just keep it on chain, you know. So maybe that's a positive kind of thread.
SPEAKER_00What do you think about uh I think it's a great point about perps? Uh like load and medium time frame Bitcoin PA on some like TA shit.
SPEAKER_02What uh I don't think the bottom's in. Um I I think I'm starting to be more and more of the minority on that, but yeah, you are minority for sure. Exactly what you said. I don't think like a new low is a bad thing, or it's the end of the world, or it's like that damaging to crypto overall. Like I just think the bear market has been pretty shallow and nothing really bad has happened. Maybe this is just me being around for prior cycles, but pretty much every bear market ended with like something meaningful blowing up. Um, I know Sailor sold some Bitcoin, but it was a de minimis amount relative to his. Like, has he even sold 2,000 coins total? I don't think so. Yeah, it's like 16, 1700. He's got 700,000. You know what I mean?
SPEAKER_00Like, to me, a bottom signal would be like Sailor ripping a few like Billy, like a big really let's really because everyone's you know, as a local bull here, or at least on-chain bull, no real opinion on Bitcoin. Even I was kind of doing the like Sailor sold and we didn't go down. Everyone's doing this narrative, and he didn't really sell anything, so a couple hundred million dollars.
SPEAKER_02It's a test transaction, bro. Like, uh he hasn't really sold anything, and and he saw how much the market reacted when he did sell initially, and it was bad. So, yeah, I think like worst case scenario, we're in the 40s and 50s, but like if you're thinking long term, which at this point in the market you should be, is if Bitcoin goes to 200k next cycle, do you give a shit if you bought it 60 or 50? I don't think so. No, I don't think it really matters, and I think I think it's it's just a matter of like where Ansom is 100% correct, you should be paying attention now. These are discounted prices. I just personally think they could get a little more discounted, but trying to catch the bottom is is pointless, right? Like, we're pretty dang close. I like that.
SPEAKER_00Um, okay, I might have like one more for you. Complete switch up. Um, but I don't know what a couple months ago, maybe six months ago, you had a pretty sick outcome. You sold breakout, Kraken. I see the Kraken shirt on right now. It's getting cut off.
SPEAKER_02Bro, 11 months ago, dude.
SPEAKER_00That's 11 months ago. Yeah, right before you know what's crazy before you get into this.
SPEAKER_02I I I randomly was like watching like some video I had done, and it was about the the sale, and I'd posted on Twitter, and some guy is like, This is the top, it will be so obvious in hindsight. Like, and it was the top, and I almost want it got no likes, no engagement. I almost wanted to retweet it and be like, What did this motherfucker know? Because I mean, we we started the company, dude. Bitcoin was like 20k. We sold it, Bitcoin was 120. Like, we caught the bull run, like, pretty pretty damn good.
SPEAKER_00Wow, okay. So you sold Breakout to Kraken 11 months ago, sold your company you're working on for a long time. And I don't know how much money you have, I don't know how much you sold it for, but the assumption is that it's a very large economic outcome, even if you've done really well before. And I'm curious, 11 months removed from the sale. Like, I don't know what is sort of the psychology of selling the company, but then more so like how did it change your life? Like, how does it like affect your like a mental state, your happiness, your like ability to trade? Like, what has like personally changed from it as a result?
SPEAKER_02So I'll I'll preface this. I made more money selling this company than I ever made trading, and I consider myself having done pretty well trading crypto over these years. Um, I started working with a performance coach named Elliot Rowe. Shout out to him. I actually did an interview with him on my YouTube channel like two weeks ago, uh, about a year before selling the company, because I was, and this was before we even were talking acquisition or anything with anyone. Um, because I was in one of the worst spots mentally and physically that I'd been in a very long time because I was running the business that was growing very fast, and we were in the middle of a bull run, and I was trying to do both because I had FOMO, right? Because I'm on Twitter every day, because part of my job was being on Twitter, posting charts, getting engagement, because that drove people to breakout. Uh, and I like to trade, that's what I'd been doing for a living. Uh, but then this business had gotten to a point where like I could not do both well. I was like half assing two things instead of whole assing one thing. You know what I mean? And so my business partner, Alex, told me he's like, I know about this guy. He works with a lot of poker pros, traders, high net worth, high performers, athletes, MMA fighters. Uh, and he helps you basically max out and dial in your performance. And uh that changed my life because we had a bunch of sessions together. You know, he walks you through some of your hangups, you do hypnotherapy, bro. You go like back into your childhood and he finds things that happened to you as a kid, bro. I I sort of I'm balling my eyes out after our first call, dude. I'm like, I don't cry, like, you know, unless it's like the end of like, you know, some sad movie with a dog in it. But like, I'm pretty like stone faced, you know, and he had me crying because you he hypno you do hypnotherapy, you go back to childhood. It's like, oh, you have a problem around this, it's manifesting today in this way. Like, it was nuts. But, anyways, he helped me create some frameworks and processes to be more efficient with my time, perform better in my role. And what I gave up in the last bull run was I'm not gonna trade as much. I need to focus on breakout. We agreed, like, this is the thing where the potential outcome is higher. It's just I'm not getting that instant gratification you get from trading, which is short. Flood tweeted about this yesterday, but it's like you have to disconnect yourself, your sense of well-being from this short-term number fluctuations on the screen. You're never gonna grow. When you're in a bull market, it's hard because your net worth is like this, dude. Like, good day, fucking horrible day. Best day of my life, fucking terrible day. And that was affecting my life in many ways, my business, how I was treating my body, not going to the gym, not eating great, partying, whatever. So, yeah, we went hard. We ended up selling breakout, and he told me right before, like, because we knew the deal was done before it was like, you know, done done. He's like, You're gonna have probably 48 hours where you're on cloud nine. Like, that's it. I'm like, that's it. He's like, that's it. I'm like, bro, I'm on my honeymoon with my wife in Italy when I got the wire. Okay, like I'm like, how much better does it get? I'm on a that I chartered and I'm like, the wire hit. I look at my account, I show my wife, I ref I sign out, I sign back in, I sign out again, I sign back in, I'm refreshing, I'm screenshotting it. And for 48 hours, dude, it was like the highest of highs. Um I'm I don't even think about it anymore. Straight up. And that started pretty soon after that. Like life just goes on, bro. And I'm already trying to think about like what's the next thing I want to do, what's the next thing I want to build? How do I get the next level? And it's exciting, but it's also kind of annoying because it's like you can't wait. I thought this was it. You know what I mean? I thought, like, okay, I'm good now. I'm gonna just retire, bro. It's like I I know I'm unk, but like I'm not gonna, what am I gonna do all day, dude? So I went to Miami for like four months after we partied it up, we lived it up, and then I'm like, okay, I want to work again. I started streaming, like, why you're doing going harder now. I'm doing more content than I think I ever was, but it's like, I don't know, man. I think for me, the biggest thing is it made me realize it's like, oh, like there's another level out there, and once you do it, you realize it's possible. You just want to do it again and again and again. I think like winners love to win, and so when you find a new way to win, you're like, okay, I want to win more that way. Like, I don't think I won trading, I don't think you ever win trading, but I'd been winning at trading for a long time where it became mechanical. Like, my trades are just the same all the time, they're super basic. I make money doing it, I make a good living. This was a new winning experience for me, and I'm like, oh, this is fucking sick. You know what I mean? You're doing it right now, you're putting in the groundwork for something that in a few years' time could get acquired for some crazy sum. And you're gonna be like, holy shit, like, oh, it's possible. Like, you never think it's possible until you do it. You never think you're gonna make money trading until you start making money trading. And so I don't know, man. It's just like it was motivating in many ways because I'm like, oh, I want more and I'm still hungry, which was great. Uh, but it's also frustrating in some ways because you learn that there is no end state for people like us. Like the people who have the ability to have exceptional outcomes, make a bunch of money, be the top of their field. There is no end game. There's no winning, there's a reason why. You know, the best people at what they do always end up being involved in some way, doing it a different way. Uh, because you can't quit, man. You can't quit, bro. That the re the the reason you can't quit is the reason you're able to do what you do today. You know what I mean?
SPEAKER_00Wow, dude. Was our 49 like were you miserable?
SPEAKER_02Or does it select Italy, you know, crushing gelato and pasta and and red wine? So I think I was I was able to extend it. I also went to Miami. I was able to extend it for a little while. You know what I mean? Something in the Miami air. It's like a dot. You pull that song, pull that liquidity forward. They play that song when you open up your balcony in Miami and you look out. Like that was my life for a good few weeks. Uh, but then yeah, dude, like sometimes I even forget that it's there. And then I'll like be looking at something. I'll be like damn, like this this shit's kind of expensive. I'm like, what the fuck am I talking about, bro? Like, fucking, we're snapping the PJ. Like, why would I get a PJ to go on a two-hour flight? It's like, because I can now. You know what I mean? And so, like, there's certain things that like remind me that I'm like, okay, like, you know, that's pretty sweet. And absolutely, this came to me, but well before breakout, bro. But like, once you have a baseline of money that is spitting you off some income, so like you get a couple M's and you put it into like T-bills or something, right? Where you're like, okay, or you have a side gig, whatever it is, you post rainbent slips. Once you have that money that's that's handling your like monthly expenses, I actually believe trading becomes easier because you're no longer trading to survive. I think there's like grindset culture around 24-7 trading to like pay your bills. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn't. I started trading my best when I still was working. I went full-time and then I got a job again and continued to trade because then I knew, like, oh, I'm not pulling money out of my trading account that I'm trying to compound to pay my rent and to buy food and to live. So, you know, that part I think, you know, having that financial stability underneath you, I do think makes you a better trader. Wow. Bro, this can be me, this can be you soon. You're gonna be talking to some Zoomer, it's gonna be like virtual reality. You're both gonna have meta glasses on. You're gonna be like 32, sold counterparty for like mid nine figgies. And some guys you're like, what was it like, unk, back in 2024? And you're like, bro, do you even know what minting an NFT means? He's gonna be like, What the fuck's an NFT? And you're just gonna look at him and you're just gonna shake your head. You're like, you have no idea.
SPEAKER_00Wow, bro. I'm getting man, I'm getting old.
SPEAKER_02Bro, shut the fuck up. You know, Gary V going a little viral right now.
SPEAKER_00The gentle giant thing, yeah.
SPEAKER_02The inquisitive uh iguana.
SPEAKER_00Send hike hike hike race to 100, 100.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, retarded rabbit, you know, the shitty squirrel, all the other ones. Um I used to clown on Gary Vee a lot. Now, I like some of the stuff he says, but I used to always clown on him when he would tell people they're so young. You remember those clips? Like, dude, you're so young, fuck you. As I get older, bro, I I I grease so much, bro. I would give all my money back to be 20 again. Every single fucking dollar. And I'm not even like that old, but like I'm now looking at like legit, like 50 is closer to me than 20, dude. You know how fucked up that is? Because in my head, bro, like when we hang out, I feel like when I'm hanging out with you and the boys, I'm like, oh, I'm still like I can hang. Yeah, you can't dude. You're going hard, bro. Yeah, we can hang out. I can hang. But like when you're older, like your mind doesn't change, dude. I'm just an older, still retarded, like kid. Yeah, it's yeah, I got more responsibility, I can act more grown-up. Maybe I have some more wisdom. But like in my head, I'm still the same person I was 15 years ago. So I like I agree with Gary V on that, man. Bro, like when you're young, dude, like if you got youth, you got a little bit of money in this game, this is where I get, I think Ansem is super right. Like, some of you young guys, like, you do have an opportunity here where you can burn a year trying to chase this, like, you know, golden goose and change your life because you got nothing to lose right now. Like, there's no difference between 21 and 22. There isn't one. You know what I mean? So if you're gonna spend a couple of years in the trenches trying to, you know, run it up on a meme coin, you're single, you got no expenses. It's like, bro, now's the time to be taking like amazingly outsized risks because you have time on your side as you get into your 30s and stuff, you get a wife, you got a house, you got to think about all these other things, taking care of your people. You can't take the same risks that you did before.
SPEAKER_00Hey, I don't know if you post your real life. Can I can I tell the chat where you took me when you came to New York? Yeah, yeah, of course. Okay, first well, first we do a little kickback at my house for the NBA Finals. Main came over and he's kind of like the star. And the next night he took me to the bar.
SPEAKER_02Razmer bought my watch, which he then wore to win the Solana World Series of poker, bro. The lore on this watch is gonna be crazy by the time I'm gonna do that.
SPEAKER_00Main comes to the house with like, I don't know, there's 30 people there, maybe 35 people. Yeah, and Rasmer, he's like obsessed, Razmer's obsessed with his watch. He's wearing this gold Rolex. He buys it off of Main's wrist that night, right? Nick's won the finals. He bought it that night off his wrist. And then the next night, Main's like, we're going out. I meet up with him, a couple other anonymous crypto guys. He takes me to the box, which was kind of a movie. The box was a movie.
SPEAKER_02That was crazy. The box was crazy. I didn't know what to expect.
SPEAKER_00He can hang. You can you can actually really hang better, probably better than I can.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, it just gets harder the older you get. Hanging, hanging, hanging gets harder to do the next day, the day after. Ooh. Ooh.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, that was a great session. Um, how often are you streaming right now?
SPEAKER_02Twice a week. Tuesdays and Thursdays, bro.
SPEAKER_00How do you like it?
SPEAKER_02Well, we'll have to get you to come on. We gotta get you to come on, bro. I want to see you in the guest chair. I'm gonna I'm gonna prepare some questions for you, bro.
SPEAKER_00Hey, for the by the way, for the chat, don't find this funny. Uh you asked me to come on a couple months ago, and I told you let me close Zcash for a million dollars and then I'll come on. I closed it. I round shipped like half of it. It was still a it was a sick, close, sick trade. But once I started texting you, let me make an M on it first.
SPEAKER_02I I should have been your take profit. I should have snapped close right there. You yeah, you always stream on YouTube, yeah. I stream on YouTube and Twitter. Chat's asking what I love about streaming is I suck at writing, bro. Like, I actually think you're a good writer. Um I think like Ansem's a good writer. Like, there's lots of guys who can write and and and kind of portray what they're trying to say, get the point across in long form written content. I've always been better at this. I'm a yapper. Like, I I don't do any planning on my streams really. I just turn the camera on. You just go and I just rip. That's awesome. Um, and a lot of what I do on my streams, the first hours, all charts. So it's just a bit of, and that that's what I love about where crypto content creation is right now is like you have so many different shows you can watch where you're getting different information, different takes from different people. Like my show and your show are different. You know what I mean? Like, I think there's value in both of them. You talk to some of the most interesting people in the space, your finger on the pulse of what's going on on CT. You're young, right? So you're in the trenches doing the things, trading on chain. Whereas, like, I will chart your shitty altcoin and give you an objective view as someone who has no skin in the game, uh, but knows a little thing about TA, and I'll give you my opinion. And then you can go watch, you know, Z and Faye's Banks and watch their show, see them interview great people, talk of Z's market takes, obviously, very popular right now. So uh I think that we're just gonna see this continue to grow and expand. And for the people hating on like the new age content creators and stuff, bro, it's like a lot of the content creators in crypto back in the day are all grifters. Okay, the only reason they created content, BitBoy, Moon Carl, all these guys, the martini guy, was because if you made YouTube videos, you could get so go look at these guys as like audience size, and then look at the views that they get. They're all their followers are dead, right? Because they lost all their money because these people would say top 10 altcoins for this market cycle, and every single one of those altcoins paid them to have an ad placement, to have a video spot. And so it was just like that was the griff back then. Whereas like, dude, like you're doing this because you like to do this, you know what I mean? You're not doing this because you're trying to shill someone, some ICO that you have a pre-sale into. So I actually think crypto content's in a way better space now than it ever was. Unbelievable take.
SPEAKER_00And as a wrap, I'll let you go in a second. Speaking of TA and speaking of shilling coins, um, pump font.
SPEAKER_02Yes. So do you I'll ask you this because I personally did not get the DM from the big Yahoo, I mean Alon, uh, about about the pump fund. Like, I didn't get into the round, you know. Like, I know some people got in the round, some of my friends got in the round. I didn't even get the offer, like they messaged me like later being like, hey, we want to work together. I was like, you guys didn't even let me. You didn't DM me. You didn't even give me the DM, bro. Um, because I would have invested 100% long degeneracy.
SPEAKER_03Yeah.
SPEAKER_02Um, so do you think it's interesting how a bunch of people simultaneously, almost in unison, started getting really bullish on pump fun um right before the unlock.
SPEAKER_00Okay, here's what I'll say. I have a few takes. You want my takes? I have a few takes.
SPEAKER_02Yes.
SPEAKER_00First of all, I didn't invest. Um, second of all, there is some interesting timing. Okay, but the one thing I will say is I started seeing these takes. A lot of people were saying this because they're fired up because everyone's chilling pump. And I felt like they were wrong because I felt as if I was one of the leading chillers of pump. And the reason I started chilling pump was kind of this let's call it coincidental timing where basically back to back early July, Cash Cat deploys on Robinhood, it goes to 150 mil instantly. Ansom deploys or takes over his coin, it goes to 450 mil as a soul pair. And then we're all kind of like, I feel like there's this communal wait, meme coins? And then I started looking at Pump Fun's revenue, and I was like, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. You're telling me it's they're still doing this now, like in these conditions, they're doing this now. And hyperliquid is worth 25x. Why is hyperliquid worth the 25x? Well, hyper liquid's worth the 25x because people think perps is the bigger market than meme coins. People think Jeff is the go in Alonzox, and then people think perps are gonna be here in 10 years, and meme coins are not gonna be here in 10 years. Maybe we'll we'll equate seven or eight X's to each of the three. Well, the eight X's to meme coins are not gonna be here in a couple years. It seems like it's being invalidated right now because how much worse could it get after 1010? And they're still making a million dollars a day? Okay, there's eight X's out of the 25 right there. I like this. And so I started talking about pump as a like, wait, wait, wait, what exactly combine that with you know the social trading stuff? And I'm like, wait, wait, what's what's going on here? Then Kimchi goes viral at the same time, and there's sort of these like outer forces. Now, was this orchestrated because of the unlock? Maybe, maybe. I'm not gonna say the timing isn't a little bit interesting, but there were some ulterior things going on here, and honestly, I don't think the big dudist has enough motion uh to to send a two billion dollars.
SPEAKER_02The big duder, bro. That's my goat, dude. Um, no, I think that's a good take. Listen, from a pure TA perspective, uh Pump Fun put in a monthly low and a weekly sweep all the way back in the middle of June. You want to do the screen share for the one time? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Let me do that. Let me do that.
SPEAKER_00I'm on full camera, no one can see you if you like reveal something like that.
SPEAKER_01Sharing turned on, request set.
SPEAKER_00Allow. Let's do it for the one time.
SPEAKER_01Do it for the lads. Alright, let's see here. Can y'all see that?
SPEAKER_00Beautiful. Nice, I got it.
SPEAKER_02Okay, so regardless of whether or not unlocks were happening, like this is a bullish setup on any altcoin. Whoa, this looks good. So on any altcoin, when you have this really aggressive sell-off, then a slightly less aggressive sell-off, right? So it's like straight down basically here, and then it starts to go sideways. This is exactly when you want to pay attention because it's either going to consolidate and then bounce, or it's gonna just roll over. So there's like if you look at like this, it's a good example of the same thing here on Pengu, right? Super aggressive sell-off, slightly less aggressive, sideways, then it gets its rip. So altcoins just kind of follow this bottoming path, and they either break out or they don't, right? So pump fund seems to be attempting its breakout here. But what's most important, I think, is down here, this is right around the time everyone started shilling, a little bit actually earlier. Anytime we get a weekly SFP on any coin, Bitcoin, altcoins, etc. So it's when that candle wicks below an old low, but then closes above. So you get that kind of like doji looking thing right there. That's a really high hit rate signal for crypto. If you go to Bitcoin and you look up every single time we have had a weekly SFP, I would say almost 90%.
SPEAKER_00Is that 97k fake pump one?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, almost every single time we get a big move. Here's the top of the last four big moves. These are all weekly swing failures.
SPEAKER_00What about that next one? The next one. Does that count?
unknownRight there.
SPEAKER_02This is a weekly swing failure. That was a sailor. That was brutal. This is a weekly swing failure pattern. This is a weekly swing failure pattern. I did a YouTube video on this. It was like 80% of the time over the last five years. These have resulted in a minimum of a 10%. So what is it? Like a big wick on the weekly that doesn't the idea is this, right? You have a level here, like this is the low time frame. We're trading above it and then back below. And it just ends up closing like this on the weekly chart. But the concept here is very simple. If we're gonna go down, my stop loss goes there. All these people are trapped. They were longing for a breakout, right? And a bunch of people were shorting here thinking it was gonna go down. It it they shorted too early, they flipped long, they're trapped. Now you're in high odds for a short. So if I zoom in on Bitcoin here, like that's exactly what this price action looks like, right? Like we traded above the level and got instantly back below. Instantly, all these people are now conceivably trapped. You have an easy validation, and even if you're wrong, your stop loss is super close. So this is one of my favorite setups in all of crypto, and it's exactly what Pump Fund put in. So I was kind of joking, half joking, when I'm like, what do you think about all the coordinated shilling? I mean, it was just narrative. When everyone starts shilling something in unison, rather than bitch and complain on Twitter, I look at the chart. I say, is there a reason? Yeah, sure, there's unlocks, but does the chart look good? The same thing happened at Solana at the bottom.
SPEAKER_00So remember you put one in recently, right?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, right down here. Everyone was shitting on Solana down here, being like, Whoa, look, the Solana KOLs are out in full force. I'm like, Solana's not fucking paying anyone to shill Solana. I was like, let's look at the chart. Okay, it just took out a huge low. If it can close above this low, it's objectively bullish, regardless of what you think is going on. So it took out the huge low, traded above it, reclaimed, had a huge push. Pump fun put in the exact same setup. So if you can learn to master this setup, you'll make a lot of money in trading. So weekly SFP. So this thing's going down aggressively. It takes out that low and it closes back above. This is like your clue that buyers are potentially entering the market. For whatever the reason doesn't matter, doesn't matter. Just look at the chart. So closed above there, I'm officially bullish unless we trade below there again. That low. So not not up here anymore. I mean, like when you're taking your so once I see that close above, I'm looking for any sort of reason to long on a pullback here. And we actually get the same setup play out right here. Yeah. Just on a lower time frame. Oh, you did. Same setup, yeah. Same setup. This is and where is this pulling back to? You want me to pull like out my OG Fibonacci retracement? Yes. Like it all works the exact same, right? There's your OTE 62%. Sweep right into it. This is a pullback in an order block. All the stuff I'd be looking for are here. And I have an entire video series, guys, on my YouTube trading bootcamp. I just released. You can learn all this shit. It's free. Go watch that shit. Yes. So like this shit was bullish regardless of what happened, is kind of my entire point. Like it was bullish regardless of the unlock. I agree with you. There may, and what's great about crypto now is we have fundamentals like that matter. Like back in 2017, bro, we had a white paper, fake partnership announcements, but there's no real money. At least in DeFi season, it started. It's like hey, curve makes money. Is curve worth $400 million making what they make? Of course not. But now I think this cycle, like we we kind of saw the beginnings of it the last couple cycles, revenue meta. Yes. This matters now. Like hyperliquid, no longer, in my opinion, can be looked at just as a chart. The fact that this company makes so much money matters. Just like Pump Fund, to your point, noticing, hey, dude, they're still printing. That's an actual data point now where it used to be like, I don't really care what they do, just show me the chart. Well, now what these companies are doing if they're not making money, the fuck who's investing? Like, why am I other than a meme coin that you're investing purely to speculate on? It's gonna be very hard to justify selling any sort of altcoin that's not a meme coin unless there is some sort of revenue attached to it. Like, what does your business do? Does it make money? If not, why is anyone gonna want to buy it? Because we have coins that make money that don't even go up. So and and the markets can market. So how do you rip targets on something like this after you get your I think you look at the high time frame and you just look left, right? So, like, where has so this is kind of like a really nice place of symmetry here is we have a bearish SFP, right? So we traded above that high, closed below. We nuked 50%. Now we traded below that low, closed above. We rallied 100%. This is the inverse move of this. Uh, I see. You see how that's like if I would have put this chart upside down, um there's the bottom, there's the top. It looks so top, it's going so low. Yeah, so nothing that's this to me looks like kind of a a test of support now. Okay. On the inverted scale. So, like, this is definitely resistance, and this thing's moved up 150%, where Bitcoin's up 10% off the bottom. Like, if you long anywhere near the low on pump fund, I think this is probably a decent area to de-risk some. Any sort of close above 3,500 here, I think is probably like a pretty easy breakout.
SPEAKER_00What if you're hypothetically long at 1800?
SPEAKER_02Hypothetically speaking, if you're long at 1800, yeah. Um with a lot of money. With a lot of money, hypothetically speaking, of course. Yeah. Um, I don't hate, I don't hate holding some. Like, I would have probably TP'd a little.
SPEAKER_03Okay.
SPEAKER_02Like I would have dereased a little at this point because you you're up 50%. Yeah. Like raw. That's pretty good. Yeah. In a short amount of time, in a relatively vertical move. Uh, then you have two options. Option number one, you draw a little trend line like this. Uh the moment it breaks below this trend line, you're just uh it's probably cooked. At least for a while. At least for a while, some sort of pullback. This is exactly how I kind of time the top on these. We're gonna go from pump fun to AI trades.
SPEAKER_00I was gonna say SpaceX kind of looks like this too the chat saying that a bunch.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, but like if you look at any of these AI moves, right?
SPEAKER_00Like, is this starting to look interesting too, aren't they?
SPEAKER_02Oh, yeah, 100%. But is this any different than a parabolic meme coin? Like, once you lose that really aggressive trend, I did the same thing on Micron here. Like, once you lose this really, really crazy trend, yeah, usually you get some sort of correction. Now, can this go up again? Absolutely. I agree with you. Like, Micron looks decent here. Sandisk looks kind of decent here. Gun to my head, this stuff goes kind of choppy sideways.
SPEAKER_00You think it has to break here? Do you think uh that 1400 is bullish again, or it's gotta go 17?
SPEAKER_02For this, yeah, I don't think this is bullish again, high time frame until it's above 1700.
SPEAKER_0017. What's the four what is the 14? It kind of just like a little new range of stuff.
SPEAKER_02This is this is potential resistance here. Like if it's gonna put in a lower high, I think this is where it happens. Like, I think this stuff kind of does. But like if it's like if that's the end of the year.
SPEAKER_00You're not a bull yet.
SPEAKER_02I would maybe even look to short it.
SPEAKER_00It's a little early, you think it's got to get above yeah, too early.
SPEAKER_02And the other thing that I just have no fucking read on is the S P five hundred and the NASDAQ and stuff. Like, I'm long NASDAQ here. Um I I I want I'm this is my expectation. If this doesn't happen, I think that's really bad and Bitcoin kind of dies. I kind of want to see everything here just extend. I don't want to see this pull back, chop. I just want to see extension of the move, or I think we're back in this range and potentially larger corrections.
SPEAKER_00What about a hyper liquid? Put in a weird chart, like a double top kind of thing.
SPEAKER_02Listen, people might hate me. I first of all, this kind of this is the inverse of that trend line breakdown I'm showing you. Like it should go up from here. Yeah. If we get one more leg below on Bitcoin, I'm buying as much hyper liquid as I can.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, that seems reasonable.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. And if it doesn't come down there, I'll buy it higher. Like I want to own hype. I already own some hype and I plan to buy more hype. Um, this to me is like BNB esque kind of trade. Ah okay.
SPEAKER_00I find one more thing. I find myself uh feeling a little bit interested in ETH as like an idea. As an idea.
SPEAKER_01You're a good idea.
SPEAKER_00Ramen hood, like friction coins.
SPEAKER_02My friend Ponzi trader calls this based single line analysis. Okay. Um, this is the most bullish that ETH BTC has looked in five years.
SPEAKER_00What a brutal chart that is.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. So this is remember, ETH made a new all-time high here versus dollars, right? But like relative to Bitcoin, like there's an argument to be made that this thing never makes an all-time high against Bitcoin again. Probably not, right? Like, we could see ETH go to 10k and this thing could do this. So the peppers. That being said, this is the most bullish this thing has looked in legitimately five years because it's just been a consistent aggressive downtrend. Now we've got this kind of move up and it's attempting a higher low. I think that's what's most interesting. So as long as this chart can actually start flipping some of these levels, so this would be level one.
SPEAKER_00So, like you, I mean it's got to flip like level two, though, doesn't it?
SPEAKER_02I think it's interesting now because the first clue that it might flip level one is the trend line breakout because technically this is still a downtrend.
SPEAKER_00This could just do this because, like, versus your sand disk, you wanted it to flip level two before you got bullish.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, yeah. I think that but the difference here is I'm not trading this chart per se.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, fair, fair. I'm trading fair, fair.
SPEAKER_02I'm trading this chart.
SPEAKER_00Fair.
SPEAKER_02And and and we're talking about different things here. Like, I think short-term bullishness on ETH makes sense here, but like this is also the most optimal area for it. Oh, that one did a little a little sweep at uh I I think ETH could very easily trade sub a thousand still this cycle.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_02I don't think if Bitcoin goes to like 50k or 45k, I would not be surprised at all if ETH makes another low. Um, but for short term, medium term, like it's been stronger lately. And this is the chart I'd be watching. If this thing can continue going up and the market Bitcoin's gonna go into the 70s, maybe the 80s, ETH is gonna continue to outperform. So this is one to watch.
SPEAKER_00Wow, that was great.
SPEAKER_02This is all the plumbers had, by the way. Okay, there was no there was no holding USD. It was if when you were tired of trading Bitcoin, you would put it into ETH because that was it. Oh, I thought about the TA.
SPEAKER_00I'm sitting here thinking about the first time you showed me TA on fucking shogith coin. I was like, oh my god, bro.
SPEAKER_02I've I have charts with lines going back to 2014, bro. I really was I was plumbing with fucking like wooden tools, man. You guys got like pneumatic fucking drills and shit now. I was using like a hammer, fucking hand calculations. It was brutal.
SPEAKER_00Wow, that's awesome. Um, man, you're the GOAT dude. This was fucking this was lit. Is there anything?
SPEAKER_02Always a good time, bro.
SPEAKER_00What yeah, show your um like boot camp and and whatnot one more time.
SPEAKER_02Every Monday for the last 18 weeks, I've released a 30 to hour long educational video. Uh, I'm calling it the whiteboard series. It's meant to take you from no idea what you're doing to being able to mark up the charts pretty proficiently. It's not the be-all end all, but this is absolutely a very good starting point. If you're like, hey, I want to learn the basics of trading, market structure, risk management, technical analysis, a little bit of trading psychology in there, some do's and don'ts. There's gonna be 30 videos once it's all said and done. I just finished recording episode 20. That'll go out next Monday. Um, so check it out. It's free, it doesn't cost you anything. And I think this, if I had this early on in my career, I think it would have expedited my journey a little bit. And the stuff that I teach you in this course matters whether or not you're trading stocks, crypto, equities, or meme coins. TA still works, markets are markets, risk management is still important when you're trading meme coins. You gotta know how much soul you're you know potentially sending to the incinerator. Make sure you're doing bankroll management. So we cover all that kind of stuff. Definitely think it's worthwhile.
SPEAKER_00Oh, last one. Uh do Bitcoin.
SPEAKER_02Oh, yeah, Bitcoin.
SPEAKER_00Also, is uh is um is Elliot taking new clients?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I'll intro you, bro. Um hit me with intro. So the the claim he makes is you will earn 10x what he costs in like future revenue, whatever, like 10x. See how expensive he's expensive. Okay, but I I think you can float it. Um tough, tough, tough. And you think it'd be you think it'd be good for me? And if you don't work with him directly, he's got a team of right of other people. So like I set my stepmom up with him because she runs a business, but she can't afford him. So she's working with one of his guys who's great. Um, I I dude changed my life. I swear to God. Watch my interview with him. I I will do that, and it it changed my life.
SPEAKER_00I'll watch it and I'll see what I think.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, he works with guys who win World Series of poker tournaments, UFC champions, Olympic gold medalists, like just high performers. He helps you bring out the best in yourself. And 10 months after working with him, I sold my business, and I do think he was part of that because I became so much better at my job after working with him. It helped grow my company. Say less. Um, so totally worth it. So Bitcoin, I think, like arguably the most annoying chart on the market. So bad. People have been telling me the bottom's in, and like, you know, I called Pico Bottom. It's like, dude, we have not moved since June. Like June, June 6th to today, we're up 7%. You know, I mean, we're up 10% off the low. We're in a range that's you know, 15% big. Not a lot is going on in Bitcoin. Um, the biggest question I think everyone has on Bitcoin is we are one of two places. We are either here or we're here already. Oh. That's the conversation people are having right now, where this is like kind of a summer rally and we got one more leg coming down. But it was quick.
SPEAKER_00This looks quick.
SPEAKER_02This is the camp I'm in. I think we're in circle one. Guys like Ansom, for example, think we're in circle two. The TLDRE, it doesn't matter. If you know that's scary.
SPEAKER_00Wait, look at that dump right after circle two.
SPEAKER_02This is FTX, dude.
SPEAKER_00Wait, wait, so so after circle two, you go up, makes a high, makes a newer high, then it gets flushed. That's a scary. Yeah.
SPEAKER_02So this actually was where I put all the remaining dry powder I had into spot. So I would be scared as fuck on that. Here's why, dude. You want to know how to long every bottom and top and short every top? You just use the weekly chart alone. So I did a thread on this uh in October 2024, predicting the top. Look, this is a weekly structure break. Meaning we were in a downtrend here, right? So this is low episode episode three of the market structure whiteboard series, guys. Just so you know. So this is higher highs and higher lows.
SPEAKER_00Someone like that, someone like that, someone like that. Yeah, go ahead.
SPEAKER_02Higher highs and higher lows, very clearly, right? Like the market is going down here. Yep, it's making consistent and then it closes through this low. That's a market structure break. So when it closes through this lower high, the market structure just went from this to this. Ah. On the weekly, that's important. Coupled with that. This was so important.
SPEAKER_00This was so boring.
SPEAKER_02We also got a weekly SFP right as that happened. That was all in. I literally tweeted, I'm like all in the remainder of my stack here between like 19 and 22,000. This works at the top too. The moment the top was in, right? We're in an uptrend here. Higher highs and higher lows. Dude, that last moment we get a weekly close through here, it was cooked. It's over.
unknownRight?
SPEAKER_02Did it have over?
SPEAKER_00Like, could it not could have been less over?
SPEAKER_02The moment we got a weekly close through here, it was done. The moment we got a weekly close through here, it was done. And the moment the bottom was in was when we got a bullish weekly structure shift. From this bullish market structure shift to the very top of the market, there was not a single weekly bearish market structure break. Every single one of these moves is a higher high and higher low on the weekly. Every single one until literally right there. So two lines: bullish weekly market structure break there, bearish weekly market structure break there. That was the bottom and top. Wow. So if we want to see that same thing happen on Bitcoin now, the argument is is this the weekly market structure level or is this it? Uh if we get above here, the bottom's in. If we get above here, unclear. It looks pretty good still above 67. I think the reason I like one more low as well is like, let's say we do get one more low, we do something like this. Oh the moment we flip this, you know the bottom's in. And who cares if you miss this last little move? Like you have confirmation here. But yeah, I think we're getting close. And I again, I think we're circle one here. Like seasonality-wise, a rally in the summer and then a dump into Q4 is pretty consistent for Bitcoin. Four-year cycle believers like myself would put the bottom anywhere from like October to January. So October 2026 to January 2027. It's not that far away. We're talking about it, so I think I think regardless, where Ansom and I agree, it's time to pay attention. I've already started accumulating some Bitcoin. Have you?
SPEAKER_00What percent of your dry powder is deployed?
SPEAKER_02Still very small. I bought a little bit on the move below 60K. I have more that I'm hoping to deploy lower. This is how I did this cycle, other than the fact that I got annihilated on um FTX. The moment we broke below 30K, I started to buy. So I figured we are far enough off the high. I started to buy from 30 to 25 to 20. I bought more down here, but I had dry powder at 10. Like if you were online back here, people thought we were going to 10K. People thought it was going, yeah, 10K. So I had money available down here, but the moment we did this, all that money that was sitting here, I dumped it in here. So that's the same strategy here. I think that even at these prices, it's pretty cheap. And if it goes lower, buy more. And then the moment we get a weekly structure break, buy the rest. Not financial advice, but that's exactly what I'm doing. Trader main, you are a special, the special guy, man. Let's do it, bro. I'm bringing you on the stream soon. I want to put you in the hot seat, bro. We're gonna absolutely grill, lamb-based you. Um, and I think I think it'll do topics, man. Bro, I honestly, dude, straight up, like seeing where you've come from from doing spaces to like this. Like, I mean, your interview with like, I mean, first of all, Flood's interview. If you guys haven't watched it, you want a breakdown of what happened with situational awareness. Very few people I think could have explained it better. Very high level. I learned something in that interview. I learned a lot of things. Chris Camillo bro. Wow, like banger interview, dude. So you've been bringing on some crazy guests. Um, and you ask great questions. Like, I think that's what makes the interview good. It's not just like the guest. I've seen Chris Camillo be interviewed before. Uh, yours was the best one because of the questions you asked. Um, so to see the growth you've had, bro, is unbelievable. So uh, you know, kudos to you. It's always fun to come on, dude.
SPEAKER_00You're the goat, man.
SPEAKER_02You you're the goat. You have a stream tomorrow? I'm a stream tomorrow, bro. What time? 3 p.m. PST. I'll see you all there.
SPEAKER_00Trader main. We love you, man.
SPEAKER_02You're the goat.
SPEAKER_00Thanks again, brother. Talk soon. That's really That's really the one, man. That's really the one right there, man.