Back From Vacation: The Anti Bitcoin Cycle & AI Stocks

First stream back from vacation: the trade he fumbled from the beach, Cash Cat breaking the ceiling while everyone posted the death candle, Intel asking for another $15 billion, and Strategy rapping through a drawdown. Plus the case that the next bull run leaves Bitcoin behind entirely, and where the only real way to get long sits.

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SPEAKER_01 0:00

God, we are back at 8 30, 8 40 a.m. in the morning for market open stream, man. It's been a while, dawg. It has been a while. What is good? I don't even know if you guys recognize me. I came back from vacation. I got a nice little tan. I now have experience as a parasailer. I did a little bit of this, a little bit of that. Added a couple pounds to my bench press. I mean, man. Got experience. Lead led the league at the beach in waves caught on the boogie board. I'm not even sure I'm recognizable right now, man. Um, I didn't trade at all during the week. I clicked, I clicked zero buttons. I only hold what I held when I left, which is a gargantuan amount of pump fun and FWA, which man, I guess I should have bought one percent of that coin at five mil. It went to five, but I wasn't really paying attention while I was gone. And at one point I look at my phone. The first couple days I could not detach. Okay, I'm like dying. And also the first couple days, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday were like, I feel like they were electric. Like Raspberry wins World Series of Poker, Palantir is up 25% in a day, like DRAM is ripping. I'm looking at my phone and I'm pulling hairs out, and then I stop paying attention, and then one day I pick up my phone after like 24 hours and I'm like, let me just like look at on-chain, like what's going on. I pull up deck screener, I look at my FWA balance, and I'm like, dude, it's five mil. Five mil? What? And then I open Twitter and for the first time in a day, and the first thing I see is a 35-minute tulip king video talking about how FWA is the worst thing that's ever happened to crypto. And I was just like, Oh my god, dude. Oh my god. And then I get a text from Malcolm, and he's like, What happened? And I wrote this sad ass reply back. Apparently, I convinced him not to buy 1% at 5 mil. I wrote this miserable reply. I can actually read you what I wrote back to him, dude. I wrote back this super sad reply. Um, to Malcolm. Let me see. I he goes, bro, we're so cooked on FWA LMAO. I'm like, annoying because it was 40 mil, and I really think that one should have played sad face. That was the message. None of us bought it. We're so back on that now. But I'll tell you what, the only thing I did for a week, and this might be a long stream, this might be a short stream, I don't really know. But the only thing I did for a week is I sat here and thought about crypto, thought about on-chain, thought about social trading, thought about traders of the new influencers. And I feel like a lot of our thesis, thes, thesis, thesis, thesis came true. That didn't come true, but started coming together over the last week while I wasn't streaming. I want to start before market open, we have like 40 minutes. Um, with the topic of are we back? I definitely missed a fun week of on-chain. All things considered, though, I don't really think much has happened. Like, we haven't really broke the fabled 100 mil ceiling on anything except for Cash Cat, which consider me shocked. Cash Cat got a Robin Hood listing. I'm surprised honestly, I'm surprised it happened. And I'm really surprised it's trading the way that it is. Like this, this is a massive narrative violation that this is happening right now, that this is green the way that it is, because crypto Twitter was so so foric to be able to post this candle and say you guys are absolute idiots on chain is not back. People were so happy to tweet out this candle because like I was on Twitter, I wasn't tweeting, but I was paying attention. People were so happy to tweet this candle and say you guys are idiots, crypto is still dead. And so I spent a lot of time thinking about it while I was gone. Like, are we because I wasn't trading, you kind of get like uh you get to step back a little bit and see where we are at and kind of like test your biases. You could I don't know, just like rethink, reevaluate where we're at. I saw this Ryan Watkins tweet. Uh it's a really good one. Sometimes I don't know if we've all become nihilists or if hyper speculation is actually the most effective way to get millions of consumers to ditch ditch the beige world of Tradfy for the crypto frontier. I haven't read out loud in like a week. In any case, the data suggests we're going much higher over the coming quarters with retail-led activity across perps, memes, and other on-chain speculative games inflecting. As a wise man once said, DGens are pioneers, and so there's kind of conflicting messaging, I think, of sentiment on where we're at as far as like being back. Is on-chain actually hot? Like, is it a bunch of bullshit? I saw like there's like three conflicting. So there's Ryan Watkins basically saying, like, yes, Jez made a tweet and basically said no. Four traders left, a bunch of idiots who call launching a coin deving and people that own exchanges, everybody else is dead. Rhino is it's insanely dead. Jonah, it's dead. Everyone's like, it's dead. The KOLs are saying on chain is alive, it's dead, it's dead, it's dead, it's dead, it's dead. And I think that the the take that I like love is that we don't actually need any reason to go up, by the way. And I was thinking about this because I read a lot, it's it's basically a complete barbell between Fourier on chain again. There's experimentation, there's things happening, and then what are you guys looking at? This shit is a ghost town, and I think people forget that after 1010, there was literally nothing, like there was bro, there was nothing in crypto, there was nothing, and it only got bro, it only got worse for like five, six straight months. And so I think there's a lot of people that one have complete, like just fully, completely written off crypto, but forget that forget how bad it was and how much of a ghost town it was after 1010. And then I think there's this other camp, and I'm a victim of doing this historically as well, that is just like super overintellectualizes why we have to either go up or down. Sometimes it just is time. I don't know. Sometimes the stars align, sometimes it's like just time, and I'm definitely not. I don't know, I don't have like a million percent confidence that we are or we aren't back, but I think I made it very clear where I stood as far as what I thought was gonna happen when I started talking about meme coins like four or five weeks ago. I mean, if you remember, I came here one day, I woke up five weeks ago, and I was just obsessed with meme coins. I don't know, something's happening, bro. Forget Bitcoin price, forget ETH price, forget, I don't know, just like forget it for a second, forget the like bare hold narratives that like we must go down because of X, Y, and Z. And let's just like look at what's happening, right? You're like, we're fucking market commentators, we're traders. Let's look at what's happening and let's make an assessment. And the assessment was that pump numbers are disgusting and they're not going away. And you look at it now, and it's like, bro, yesterday, Pump Fund bought back eight hundred and forty seven thousand dollars worth of their token, bro. The last time they bought back eight hundred and forty seven thousand, bro, it was January 27th, 2026. January 27th, 2026 was the last time Pump Fun made as much money as they made yesterday. Think about what the world looked like January 27th, 2026. Yeah, it's pre-war. Let's go complete 180 because we gotta talk about stocks. Because in 19 seconds, the stock market opens. As always, stock market open is powered by Phantom. Because anything you see during this segment, whether it's stocks, crypto, whether you want to sell your stocks for stable coins, whether you want to buy a coin, alt, perps, whatever it is. If you can trade it, you can trade it with Phantom Wallet. And on that note, stock market is officially oh, let's go, let's go, let's go, let's go. We're talking about crypto rapids. We gotta talk about it first. Rancorp, thanks for the raid. Let's go, let's go, let's go. SBX opens basically flat that is down 0.05%. And yesterday's trading session, the cost B was up 0.65%. Pretty flat. I'm gonna talk about that in a minute. Um, Q's as well are flat. The stocks is up 0.3. The IBB. Where's Greg? Looks nuts. Look at this chart. This was a coin I really liked. Um, look at this fucking chart right now. Look at this thing. Um, the triple leverage semi ETF is up 1.2% on the open. I'm gonna be honest, guys. These charts do not look good. The IGV is up about a percent. Mags are flat, and DRAM is down two point five percent. I think memory and semis look really uninspiring and weak. Maybe a bull case is that mags are fairly strong here. Like, look at the mags' high timeframe looks great. Amazon went crazy, Microsoft has been looking great, meta even got a little bit of a bounce. Google, like mags look great, but Emory and semis, which is really where all the momentum was coming from, look like they're gonna do a whole lot of nothing, and that speculative fervor needs somewhere else to go. And so I'm not gonna say crypto, but we'll see. Um, crypto 64.8 on BTC and Sailor is drilling support. He just sold another 100 million dollars. I think he has three years of I think he has three years of cash reserves for stretch. He's drilling support, bitcoin won't go down. ETH is 1900, hype is 55 strong in the open lighters 2.3, it's been very strong. Pump fun, we'll get there. Silver looks great. I would argue as well. Another uh case for like volatility to return away from memory and semis and into other assets is like look at silver and gold and copper metals performance. Look at this. We've kind of been waiting for this, but silver is breaking out of like I got again. I got a lot of charts to catch up on. Um, silver is breaking out of like a couple months of doing nothing, and gold as well looks strong, and then copper. I mean, I had this circle drawn months ago. Copper looks is anyone take this trade? You know, I love the copper trade, it's like a 200-day breakout, really. 200 day breakout, AI bottleneck. Like, I like the copper trade a lot. Drunk loves it well. I did not take it again. I I really had a hard no trading rule while I was on vacation, but copper looks great as well. Zcash has been trading well, and then uniswap. I have on this list, but we'll come back to crypto a little bit. W2i is 80. What's Brent on here? 85. Not yeah, not terrifying, but not great. Um, defense is all up, and let us get into mags, big AI, semis, memory, rocket lab leads. Wow, this is kind of an ugly day. Up two percent Shaw's is 50. Fuck this coin, that's up two percent. Uh, meta is up one, Marvell's up 1.3, Microsoft is up one, asml is up one, sand disk is flat, Oracle is flat, red wire space down one, Dell is up 0.26. The Dell, what did I miss on Dell? By the way, what happened to this? Look at this. This thing is uh since July, end of July, we're up like 27 and new all-time high on Dell. That's a Trump stock. SpaceX missed this as well, had a sick earnings. I wish we could hear Elon on the earnings call. They beat double beat, triple beat, and it's 133 almost back to deal price. I think a reclaim of 135 definitively would be relatively significant. Um, on SpaceX. I don't know if I'm entering at any point, but feels it would be significant. Google back above the Berkshire price, huh? 350, where they diluted 80 billion dollars. Blackberry's up one, broad comes up one, Tesla 328. What do we got? Amazon is red. Um, Cerebrus has been really strong. Well, I've really missed all of this. What let's see, high time frame cerebrus. That looks fucking amazing. Cerebris looks great up two percent. Um, NVIDIA's red, cloud flare is red. Where is Intel? IBM Micron is red, down a percent. Apple is down getting ugh. Look at the Apple high time frame, it's pretty kind of ugly. Um, Apple's ugly, it's like inverse to everything else. Are we supposed to learn something right now? I don't brother. Fuck it's market open, lock the fuck in. Okay, look at this. Intel is maybe the worst high time frame chart. So it deals down four on the announcement of dilution, bro. So they are going to offer 15 billion of common stock on Intel. Market hates it. Intel's down four percent, it's now under 100. It kind of looks like it wants to fill this gap. And so, so Intel's already gotten 30 billion in hard cash injections over the last 18 months, and probably much more in soft favor plus ecosystem investment, and it hasn't produced a single thing yet. The economics are actually getting worse. At what point do we pull the plug here? So, I think one of the scary things about the market is a lot of the darlings are pretty cocked right now. Intel is pretty cocked, high next is pretty cocked, micron is pretty like all of the momentum rippers are fairly cocked at the moment. Um, where's Micron? We just passed it. Micron's 866. These charts just like don't. Yeah, I mean, they were kind of the darlings of this cycle. I think Intel, Micron, Sandisk, IBM kind of IBM. Um, where's Hynex like real chart? High Nix, Hynex, Hynex. Like this, it's kind of crazy. Like, no real like I kind of think if the momentum were to continue, you get the aggressive liquidation, leverage bounce, and it's just like not coming for these memory names. Um, all right, where are we for SAS? Is SAS green? Let's see. IGV is green. Wow, all right, leader is butterfly, the mid-journey chipmaker. Roblox cocked, but is up. Take two interactive is knocking on the door of a new all-time high. Where's wavy 80? That looks really good. Take two interactive Uber's up four, Figma is up four, sweet green is up one, IBKR is up one and a half, Airbnb. Which had a what happened to Airbnb the other day? I'm up 20. Look at this. Look at this chart. Airbnb. I seem to have missed this, I suppose. Um, Airbnb is nuts right now. It's 180. Highest it's been since February 2022 on Airbnb. It's crazy. Uh, Lily's up one, stub up is green. That should never have a green candle ever again for the end of time. Shopify is green, game stop is green. On news that they're gonna back out of eBay. I think I saw. Um, Nike red, what else? Robin Hood is red. 92 on Robinhood. What does high time for Robinhood look like? Uh it looks pretty good. Decent level to bid, maybe on Robinhood. Um, what else? What else? What else? So if I'm red, him's down one. Coinbase is on support here, really. Crypto stocks are in a weird, weird place. Doubled with uh what is it? Clarity. It's just not passing, I guess. Like fuck this, right? Look at this. Clarity is in trouble. This thing looks like it's somebody knows this thing is not passing. Um, what else? MSTR did make it back above 100, but it's now 98 down 2%. AMC to five eBay's down four percent. I think on the GME news, yeah. eBay's or GameStop's Ryan Cohen Waze pulling $56 billion eBay offer. Yeah, I don't know exactly what's gonna happen with this, but GME is up and eBay is down, Hance Games is crushed, and Visa is flat. So Michael's Sailor's strategy. First of all, they posted this. Uh, this is the worst. The market is they do this every earnings call. This is the worst.

SPEAKER_00 16:23

Good evening, shareholders. The market is pricing fear. I'm pricing bitcoin. The quarter was rough, but the SAS per share rose. They saw us selling, everybody froze. 32 coins just oh my god. The test the machine 0.004% barely seen. Then we bought 48 times more than we sold, but bears read one headline and hit caps lock bow. Own the most capital, issue the strongest credit, create the best equity.

SPEAKER_01 16:53

I didn't see this while I was gone, dude.

SPEAKER_00 16:56

Rinse and repeat it. Bitcoin is the winner. The credit turbine spins. They say the quarter's over. I say the century begins. Our most capital increase the stats per share. You saw us sell some bitcoin, we bought 48 times more. I would sue if my face was on this.

SPEAKER_01 17:13

Do you think they have a right to sue for like AI defamation? That was one of the worst things I've ever watched in my entire life, actually. Wow, but they sold another hundred million on top of the like 250 million they sold. And so remember, Michael Saylor and Strategy owes 1.7 billion dollars of cash to stretch holders every year in perpetuity, basically, unless they buy it all back, and they're now up to 650. No, they increased, uh, they increased it by 650 million, they're up to like yeah, 4.65 billion in the USD reserve. So they have like two years and some change of coverage, which the market has definitely taken a chill pill on the whole sailor blowing up thing as a result. Stretches at 95. And I think people feel decent about his ability to pay dividends, at least in the like the long, long like one year of coverage isn't enough, low-key, because everyone front runs it, right? Like, if you think they only have like a year to pay, then you're selling at like eight, you know, four months left, but then everyone's front running the four months left sell. And so you're selling actually with like six months left, like, and everyone front runs the front runner of the front run. A year is not enough. And so I think that the sailor blow up worry. I mean, man, it's funny, like, it wasn't that long ago, a couple weeks, a month, maybe two months ago, that the consensus was that Sailor was going to blow up right now, and you cannot fight it, you cannot deny it. There's no possible good outcome. And if you remember, we actually had Mando come on and explain the dynamics of stretch strategy, how it works, and the idea that like this doesn't have to happen, and if it does happen, it's going to take like a very long time for this to unravel. This is not some like snap call, it's done type of situation. That is where we unfortunately are at with Michael Saylor, the intro of the stream. This is gonna be the first bull run in the history of crypto where Bitcoin flat out just does not participate at all. This is going to be the first bull run where Bitcoin has no role, no say, no participation. It will be minimal at best. It will be Bitcoin to 75k, Bitcoin to 80k, Bitcoin to 85k, and there will be fucking mania on chain. Okay, because think about this, think about this, think about this, my friends. Think about this. My entire thesis right now is rooted in this idea that the next cycle is gonna come from this new blood getting at new blood of buyers and participants getting access to on-chain through quality of apps and cross-chain, you know, social mobile trading, whatever that did not previously exist, and developers getting new blood to innovate in DeFi or whatever it may be on-chain, especially with how good AI has gotten. This new crowd that comes in doesn't even know what Bitcoin is. Bro, they don't like anyone that joined crypto that wanted to be a day trader or whatever that joined crypto because they saw like kimchi clip or because they saw scented or they saw Orangy or they saw Rasmer, they don't even know what Bitcoin is. And in a lot of ways, Bitcoin has been separated from broader crypto for like years. It's been Bitcoin and then everything else. Really, the last I feel the last time crypto and Bitcoin were like synonymous was when Bitcoin was the only entry into crypto and like on-chain didn't really exist. And you came into crypto and then you're like you came into Bitcoin and like oh this ETH ICO thing. It's like 2017, low-key 2021. The two things were very separate. They were very separate. NFTs and Bitcoin had nothing to do with each other. And there was a a while, there was a there was a long think about it. There's been two like test pumps on this. Okay, there was like this um Bitcoin topped in 2022, and then NFTs go nuts. NFTs go nuts after Bitcoin is topped, and the NFT crowd doesn't care about Bitcoin at all, right? They didn't pay attention to it, they weren't buying it. ETH was their Bitcoin. That ETH it was stacking ETH, not stacking Bitcoin for the first time. You're like stacking some new asset, right? The NFT crowd doesn't care at all about didn't care at all about Bitcoin. That was your first test pump. Your second test pump was a little bit more egregious and in your face, which was that the bull run happens at 24. And yes, Bitcoin goes from like, you know, what 20. To like 120, but Solana goes from eight dollars to 270, and then the meme coin mania happens, and the on-chain kids that pull up have they pay zero attention, even to ETH, right? So it was like Stack Bitcoin, then it was like Stack ETH, and then the new crowd was like, no, no, no, stack Solana. That was the meta 24. It was like Stack Bitcoin 2017, and then it was like Stack ETH 2021. 2024, it was Stack Solana, it was print money on chain, Stack Solana, or even crazier, it was like it was like Stack SPX 6900. It went like one step removed. Stack SPX. And so every like incremental cycle, I think, has like separated further and further from you know Bitcoin versus the rest. Now it's like stack hype. It's been stack hype was the trade after Stack Solana. It was like stack hype, right? It was stack hype. And so, in a lot of ways, like the thing that has me the most, and I know I'm spending a lot of time. We have I've been gone. We gotta catch up. I know I'm spending a lot of time talking about this stuff, but we I've been gone. In a lot of ways, my thesis for or my my my just like animal spirits for what would bring back mania here is this it's a mando tweet, wreck mando. It's a mando tweet that I'm gonna pull for you right now. Is is one is really, really, really good one. And it's kind of been the idea that I've built my like entire career on, but it's starting to play out. Crypto is becoming the arena again. The tech means that every asset is coming on chain. We have perps, options, prediction markets, memes, nfts as products, platforms that make your PL public. Suddenly, this is the place to make a name for yourself. And so, any new person that shows up into crypto, in my opinion, is trader, not Bitcoin maxi. It's trader first. You're you these are traders, they're not Bitcoin maxies. The sailor thing means nothing to them. Like, what you know, one of the things that the one of the takes I think is funny is you know, there's a little bit of this on there's this on-chain pocket building itself, and everyone, all of the unks are doing this like, no, no, no, pump the brakes. We we are not back because Bitcoin is gonna leg down again. Pump the brakes, we are not back, we are not back because Bitcoin is gonna leg down again. And I'm looking around and I'm like, so like, okay, so what if Bitcoin legs down again? Because I mean, so what if Bitcoin legs down again? I mean, look at these Bitcoin, like, look at these charts versus Bitcoin. Look at hyper liquid hype BTC high time frame. Look at this chart. This is hype BTC. Like, everyone's like, no, no, no, no, no. We cannot be back because on-chain can't be back because Bitcoin's gonna leg down again. And I'm like, okay, and then what? It's like, okay, so what? Bitcoin legs down again. Okay, I do you think that on-chain right now is correlated to Bitcoin price? Where is that the case? Here's hype BTC, looks like this. Nuts. It decoupled, like, I mean, really, it really decoupled in January, but it decoupled in April 25. Okay, that's hype BTC. And then you have like, I don't know, what is I don't even know what this looks like. Pump BTC looks like this, bottomed in like June, really kind of bottomed in December 25, looks like this. Lighter BTC bottomed in May, looks like this. About uh soul pie doesn't look great. What about Zcash BTC? Look at this. I mean, this thing bottomed in like March. Could argue earlier, and so I ask like Bitcoin's gonna leg no no crypto, Anche cannot be back because Bitcoin is gonna leg down again. I don't think it fucking matters at all. I don't think it matters at all. I think if you get a nuke and we go to 50k and we sweep new lows, coins are gonna get hurt, obviously. Of course, it's a rite of passage. Coins are gonna get hurt. If we go to you know, we go to 50k, fine, it's gonna be a bad week. Coins are are gonna get hurt, but like is it is guys that are building Udiswap v4 hooks give a fuck about what Bitcoin price is. They don't even know. These people don't even know. You go on on Twitch right now, you look at scented viewers, and these people don't even know. And so, man, I just think like these for the first time, it really happened in 2021. It really happened 2021. It was no longer about stacking bitcoin, it was about buying NFTs and stacking ETH. 2024, it was buying memes and stacking soul, and in 2026, it feels like it's gonna be just like trading on chain, stacking cash. Is that bad for crypto? I don't know. That's what it is. Low-key stacking cash. These trading these trading apps denominate themselves in um cash, it's stacking cash or it's stacking pump. Low-key, that might be a crazy take. It's low-key stacking pump, and so I just think you know, I read these tweets again. I was gone for a week and I was kind of uh took a step back. And whether we're back or not, it's a different discussion of when we are back, it is going to be completely isolated from Bitcoin PA. It doesn't uh it doesn't matter. I don't think that that's a bad thing either. That Bitcoin is is is kind of cooked right now. I think that that's I think for the crypto industry to mature to get to where like I think it can get to and I think it should get to, you need other things to have staying power, multi-cycle staying power, a unique buyer base, and that kind of brings me to a thing that I talk about every day, but I haven't been here in a while, which is pump fun, which is my biggest bag right now. Um, I covered this at the beginning, but I'll just go back. July 16th, no one's praising the outcome that meme coins are a foundational part of finance and never going away. Plus, pump has an unvampable moat. Hundreds of launch pads I've tried and they all failed. It is not rule bit. Pick below related. And the reason I started getting like autistically obsessed with memes in on-chain again was Ansem and Cash Cat breaking the 100 mil ceiling in the same like week. And I thought to myself, oh my god, how is this possible that this is still uh actually, how is this possible that this is trading like this, that there is this much demand to buy memes after all that? And so I tweeted this July 16. Uh, I I I marked it. Here it is. It was like at uh it's plus 70, you know, 70% ago, like 1600, maybe. And so it's been a pretty good trade so far, but you know, I actually think my target on pump is really disgusting because it's sort of the bow on the top to tie everything I talked about today as to why you could be bullish on an on-chain cycle together. Because if you believe the traders influencer thing, social trading thing getting really big, actually, I didn't even finish my topic on that, but the social trading thing, public PLs getting really, really, really big. If you think kimchi is sort of like a test pump to how big these people can get, if you believe that if this next bull happened the way that previous ones did, there would be, I don't know, a hundred million users combined between all these mobile trading apps. Like, if you believe these things to be true, and that I don't know, AI ushers in on-chain innovation, crypto is the arena for for speculative uh for financial whatever it is. You believe these things to be true, there's no way to get long, really, other than pump. Pump is like the only thing you can buy at the moment. It's almost shocking to me that there is not more launch pad competition after all of this time, but this is the only way to get long on chain mania, really. Soul is well, soul is well, but I don't know, pump is like leverage soul. So basically, the entirety of what I thought about while I was gone and why I was excited about crypto and why I think we could have another euphoria on chain is basically this tweet right here. In the next few years, individual investors will outperform Wall Street. The best individual investors have the same conviction as active managers and none of the shackles with streaming and social clout, it compounds. The best pickers can now attract flows directly. There's a paper that proves the mechanism. These guys took every US active fund 1983-2018 and they asked, forget the whole portfolio. How do managers' highest conviction picks actually conform uh perform? They're finding summarized by Claude. One manager's best ideas beat the market by 2.8 to 4.5 percent a year, and it's permanent. No reversal even a decade later. These stocks were genuinely underpriced. Two, everything else in the portfolio adds nothing. The average fund holds 160 stocks, all holdings, the all holdings portfolio earns six bips of alpha, statistically zero, six bips, like 0.06 percent, bro. It's nothing. Three alpha declines from idea one to ten. Only the top five matter that on their 155 positions are filler. Okay, so stock picking skill is still a thing. So why do funds lose to the index? Because the rapper forces managers to bury their five good ideas under 155 mediocre ones, fees are on AUN assets under management, diversify to scale, capture your own alpha is fees. Manager wins, client pays alpha fees for closest uh for closet beta. Two career risk. One concentrated bad year gets you fired. Nobody gets fired for humping the index. Three morning star and sharp ratio ratios are punish concentration. Flows chase stars, stars require blandness until Ansom, Thread Guy, etc. take over. Oh, I didn't even know I was mentioned in this. Oh, what? I guess I never really read it. Morningstar and sharp ratios punish concentration. Flows chase stars, stars require blandness until Ansom, Thread Guy, etc. take over. Lawyers, rules, tree, conviction is liability, and then the kicker. Size kills alpha. Best ideas of small hedge funds beat those of 10 billion dollar giants by 15% a year. The individual investor has the smallest AUM of all. Here's how to win based on this paper. Um, Adam, what's good, bro? Here, I'll link it. Here's how to win based on this paper. One, concentrate. Your top five ideas size like you mean it. Stocks capture 80% of all diversification benefit, anyways. Two, buy cheap beta for the rest. Diversification costs nothing, thanks to Vanguard. Alpha cost everything, never pay active fees for filler. Three, go where the funds can't. Illiquid, small, or weird. That's where the best ideas outperform most. On-chain. Four, do the work. Catch that conviction without research is just gambling. These managers earned their alpha. They weren't, they just weren't allowed to act on it. You have to be both the analyst and the allocator. Five, build distribution. The funds moat was never stock picking, it was gathering assets. Streaming and social flip that audience is the new AUM. Tools to responsibly monetize that will emerge. Wall Street can't hold its own best ideas, but you can, and that's the edge. This is basically the summarized thesis of the social trading, institutional investor, like rise of the active trader, rise of the influencer trader. Like it's really this the rise of Chris Camillos. Exact, exactly, bro. And so I don't know. I don't know. That's that's just like a lot of what I was thinking about while I was gone. Is is this and only this? And I think it's gonna lead to some mania, potentially lead to some mania in crypto. So those are my thoughts, those are like my complete and utter thoughts. Um, we're still at war, which is crazy to me. Trump has privately admitted defeat and told senior AIDS he is willing to end the Iran war without a nuclear deal if Iran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz, retreat from his initial unconditional surrender. Trump has been laying the groundwork to declare victory based solely on Hormuz reopening, walking away from his initial promises to decimate Iran's nuclear program. However, Iran has raised its price for reopening the strait in the form of new demands, turning what Trump hoped would be his exit into a full US surrender document. Those demands include $300 billion in compensation, the release of up to $100 billion in frozen assets, lifting all sanctions, U.S. troop withdrawal from the entire region, and an end to the naval blockade, and accepting transit fees on every ship. U.S. officials say Trump is desperately searching for an exit, with the only viable option being the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, however, has made even that impossible unless Trump surrenders to all of the demands. Um, I think my stance really on this whole thing is that no matter how this ends, the market has sort of decided it doesn't really care. We've been saying this for a while, but the market has kind of just decided it doesn't really care. And even if the US were to like wobble out of this with their tail between the legs, it is not really much of a concern to me that the market is like gonna get destroyed. It's just not. All right, all right, all right, all right, all right. Well, guys, look, I'm back. We have a lot I need to catch up on. We have a lot we need to go through, and this is going to be a absolutely electric week of stream. I missed you. I really did miss you. It's good to be back. And let's go, man. I'm out, I'm out in the stream. I'll see you tomorrow. If you're new here, if you're new here, you're new here. I'm live every day at 8 30 a.m. every morning. I missed you. I love you. I didn't cover half what I wanted to, but we'll get there. I'm optimistic, I'm excited. At least for the first time in a long time, there's things happening, and I will catch you when I catch you. I'll see you when I see you. Have a great rest of your day. Love you, motherfuckers.