Threadguy Live
Stocks, crypto, politics, culture, and the great financialization of everything. Threadguy is live every weekday from New York with analysis, commentary, and interviews with leading figures across the space of internet markets.
Threadguy Live
Jensen Loves Open Source, Bubble Boi Shares Alpha, and I Have Fun Onchain
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How does he do it every day? Is what I want to know. How does he do it every day, man? How every day? Purple and blues and yellows and whites and lights and brights. All right. Couple intro stuff. First and foremost, all right. Netflix just dropped a trailer for a prediction market show that, from what I understand, has nothing to do with Calci or Polymarket. Or predicted World Cup, even. Does anyone watch this yet?
SPEAKER_00The guys in this house have made millions of dollars on prediction markets. Probably eight figures just over the course of the World Cup.
SPEAKER_02I like betting on Calci trading on polymarket. I put five thousand dollars on Spain to win.
SPEAKER_03Eight figures followed by I put five thousand dollars in Spain.
SPEAKER_02The whole thing. I'll be on thirty thousand.
SPEAKER_03Talking about eight figures. What are you talking about? Eight figures? But that wait, what slip was that, by the way? That's a Calci slip. Eight figures, easy cleared, but if Argentina wins the whole thing, eight games, I'll I'll bink them for 30.
SPEAKER_02I'll be on 30,000. Like when you wake up, you gotta put on your lucky underwear, eat like a good luck meal, listen to your favorite song, take a deep breath, send a prayer. I think prediction markers are low key taking over the world.
SPEAKER_03Well, we'll see. I wish there was like some Twitter traders on there. I wish, I wish like Carr and Doma and people like this were on there, but they're not. It is what it is. Um, I'm I'm excited to watch though. We'll see. We'll see. Okay, one more thing, by the way, because you know we do robotics updates every morning. Unitree just dropped a video of their latest dog robot. Okay, I'm just gonna warn you. Remember, we watched the Black Mirror thing the other day. You gotta prepare your prepare yourself for what you're about to watch. Imagine you for you imagine you forgot to tip at Whole Foods and you're walking out for the grocery store and you're like a hundred yards away and you turn around, and this thing is just like in a full sprint with an AK attached to it. This is the type of shit that HOA sends your way when you paint your fence a little bit too shit too white. You like put up a basketball hoop without the permission, the HOA like drops this thing at the top of your cul de sac. They're in the process of IPOing right now. Anyways, they just launched this thing, and that is horrifying. YC just announced their like request for startups, and it's deep. There's like four crypto projects on the that they're requesting. They basically put out a document of what they are looking for in their next batch for startups that they want to invest in. Well, there's like 10 of them. We might not go through all of them, but uh, I want to just read a couple of them. All right, last two. This is crazy. These last three are crazy. One, the best time to build in crypto, it's a dispiriting moment in crypto. Prices are down, hot narratives have fallen flat, and many builders are leaving. It sounds crazy, but at White Combinator, we're more optimistic than ever. We've invested in more than 100 crypto startups, but we expect that number to go up a lot. Eventually, we expect every YC startup to use crypto rails from capital raising to payments, though most will probably never even know. Here's why we're bullish. Many YC funded fintechs, way outside crypto, are building on crypto, like deal in gusto. Gusto, I used to use gusto. Regulatory clarity is finally here. Stable coins are being adopted by every major financial institution, tokenized stocks are transforming trading. Projects like Hyperliquid with a tiny team are making top stock exchanges squeamish about their edge. And it feels inevitable that agents are gonna use crypto network as financial rails. We funded major crypto teams building in crypto like Stripe, Coinbase, and Axiom. They funded Axiom, by the way. As you know that one of the most successful startups ever is Axiom. They never they will never talk about it. It's a joke. They never talk about it. Interesting. This is gonna be a scary open. All right, stock market opens in 21 seconds as always. Stock market open is powered by Phantom. It's powered by Phantom because anything that you want to buy, any stock, any coin, if you want to sell your coin, you want to go to stable coins, if you want to trade perps on the coins, if you want to trade perps on the stocks, if you want a card, if you want a bank account, anything that you want to do that's related to the market, you can do it with Phantom Wallet. Everybody knows this. And on that note, the stock market is oh, I'm scared of luck, I'm scared of luck, I'm scared to look. The SP 500 opens green up 0.03 percent. The Dow is up 0.12, the Nasdaq 100, that is down 0.74. The Cosby yesterday's session is disgusting. It was down 5.75 percentage points. The QQQ down 0.225. The Sox is down 1.67, the Soxol is down 5.14, the IGV is green, wild DRAM down 5.11 553, and it is getting destroyed. Unopen, and the mags are back for revenge after one of the worst days in recent history. Yesterday is up 0.33. The trade was short, memory long. Google was that really the trade. Maybe if you opened it today, not if you opened it yesterday. Um, Bitcoin off a cliff, off a cliff 64.2, pump fun, not really feeling it. Shaw's 69, silver up 0.4 percent, Solana 74. Yields are all down across the board, two years down 0.2, 10 years down 0.3, the 30 years down 0.04. That's nice. Gold 4,050. Zcash is under 500, copper can never get to the level, and lighter is down three. Hyper liquid, where are we? Hype 58. Oh god, on hyper liquid oil, Brent oil 92. It's down off the highs of 95. That is good to see. Crude oil is down 0.2, it's 9033. That's on 2% today. Excuse me. Wow, Lockheed Martin continues. It's now 577. It has up 12 yesterday, and that thing is fucking flying on Lockheed Martin. Look at this thing, it's up uh 20 in two days on Lockheed Martin. That tell you what, that's all about cost per kill. Big AI. Uh, biggest gainer, Salesforce 2.8, Adobe 2.1, Oracle 1.6, uh Cloudflare 1, IBM one, it's 208. Apple's up one, Robochardy, half a percent. Microsoft green, that's up 0.5, Blackberry 1%, Firefly Space Stock. That's up 0.5. Arm is up one. Google is flat after its worst day in over two years. Two years. Okay, Warren Buffett is down off the 10 billion dollar investment that Berkshire made into Google's dilution at $350, $318. MD up a percent. Meta is red again. Amazon red again. Chris Camillo, friend of the stream, friend of mine. Um, he made a tweet yesterday, and he said he added Amazon on leverage. If I'm wrong, I will pay for it, is what Chris Camillo said yesterday. Wild tweet. Snowflake flat, Netflix on point three, Intel. This is this is uh crazy because it's below its earnings beat. It went to 113, it's under 100 once again on Intel, which is not great. Um, Shaw's 6947, Tesla's 320. This is an ugly day. Nvidia 208 down 0.5, QCom down one, ASML down one, Nokia down two, right after all of CT piled into Nokia. SpaceX 115 AOS L down two and a half, Bloom Energy down three, Micron down three, nine sixty one, cerebrus down five. One of the worst charts in recent history after what they just pulled. Look at this BART up, Bart down, Bart up, Bart down. Um, Sandis is down three, skynix, the ADR is 163, and it is down four percent. God, crypto is disgusting. DRAM is fifty six dollars. It is bouncing off the bottom. Uh our IRL thing says AMC is green. I I should have just bought IMAX. It's such a joke, it's such such a joke. All-time highs on IMAX. It's such a fucking joke. Stubhub green day doesn't ever deserve it ever again. Sphere is up two, Madison Square Garden, both of them are up one. Neo clouds, SAS, Figma up five. IGV is green, that's scary. Date is up 1.5, DraftKings up two, Shopify is up one, snap is up one, Lulu's up one, Uber is up 0.2, Reddit is up 0.6, 1.6, excuse me. DoorDash is up one, reddit is flat, eBay is red, mstr 92. Coinbase is down three, nevius down six. Anson makes two M a month on X subs. What are you talking about? $200 a month, 200 times 818, $163,000 a month. Chat, would you subscribe to me for $200 a month or no? How many, how many people would subscribe? Yes or no? Dad, be honest, be honest, don't lie. Would you subscribe to me for $200? $200 yen? Wouldn't you subscribe for $20? 200 CLED tokens? It's like a dollar. I don't even have a Twitch sub. We get you for free, dog. Where are we at? Bitcoin 64. Ugly, ugly, ugly, ugly, ugly, ugly. Lighter $2. Pump fine is like holding on. Pump 1825. Soul 74 is so gross. You know what's crazy is I had that so long. Remember my soul? Roman dudes the meme coin of the food industry. Tastes good, little nutritional value, cheap. Yeah, that's insightful. Yeah, yeah. I mean, yeah. I I remember I had this soul long at $81 when Bitcoin was like 61k or whatnot. And it Bitcoin ran up like 4k, but like 10%, and you never even got uh soul. I mean, that uh that was the top, and it hasn't come close to that since all right. Where are we at? Are we getting crushed? Cerebus is under 200, two years down 0.4, 10 year down 0.5, 30 is down 0.2. Disgusting. Um, SpaceX 113, AMD down three, Broadcom down three, robo down three, Nvidia down 1.2. I wonder if that letter will pump it. Ugly. Major escalation escalation in Ron. Uh, this weekend in Iran, very likely. Feels that way, right? Polymarket basically says there's like a 70. If you like went backwards in this, ceasefire continues through. Like, we're saying like 22% chance they strike on the 25th, 30th, they strike by the 26th, 55 by the 31st. The odds in this are nuts. The odds in this are nuts. An immense wave of American airlock airlifts into the Middle East is underway, and the pattern pushes a possible escalation. Imagine everything else is assembling, special operation forces deployed from US bases, V1 bombers on alert in Britain, F-16s from Germany, and F-35s from England, refueling aircraft, massing in Israel. Wow. But all right, here's the plan, guys. That's market open. I have a second stream today. I'll see you at 1 p.m. Peace. Bubble Boy stream, 1 p.m. I'm out. Peace. Boom, Mr. Bubble Boy, the boy of Bubbles, part two. How are you, man? Yo, how are you? I'm good, dude. It's good to see you again. Look, I want to start really quick. First of all, thank you for popping in on late notice. And second of all, I want to give you a couple flowers because I think it was last Intel earnings. So I guess about a quarter ago, you came on and you had one of our best performing stream guests with trade ideas. Intel, and I believe Sandisc was the other one that proceeded to go basically up only since you first came on the stream. So congratulations on that. Yeah, thank you. Yeah, you're welcome. Uh, well, look, thanks for coming on. We had a deal. If Intel beat earnings, you would come on, and Intel crushed earnings, but the market is in a little bit of a of a weird spot at the moment, and so I think it's actually more valuable for you to come on now. Well, things look like this. I mean, how are you right now? Like, how is how is your year to date doing? How is your trading performance going in the market as we currently stand?
SPEAKER_01I think this is like the best year I've ever had trading or money-wise in my life. Whoa. I think all the years I've been working combined do not add up to the money I've made this year.
SPEAKER_03All the years you've worked in your life combined do not make add up to this year. Yeah. Wow. Why do you think? Like, is this just this is just the year you finally put it all together and all of the work just caught up and it just hit? Like, why do you think that happened?
SPEAKER_01I I think it's definitely the AI trade is part of it. And it's just because of my like career and background, it was a lot easier for me to know like what was bullshit and what was not, and who was gonna make it and who wasn't. Um, because I don't like sit down every day like with the financials, and I'm like, oh, like this company's expensive, this company's cheap. I'm always just thinking about the products and the customers that are gonna use those products. So for me, it was just like right place, right time. And I've always been, you know, because I just like am an engineer, I've always been fascinated by AI and have been thinking about it for a long time and learning about it. So I was just in the right place. It's like all that research and knowledge that I've accumulated over the years just like super valuable now.
SPEAKER_03I know I asked you this last first of all, congratulations. I know I asked you this last stream. Are you still like are you a full-time trader right now? Are you working a job?
SPEAKER_01Well, I I I was uh probably consulting more back then, right? So I might have done like consulting gigs just because I like left my last job and I was just really wasn't into like going to a big corporation again or like some very like highly hierarchical place. So I was doing like consulting work, but I definitely don't do that now.
SPEAKER_03To your earlier point of you have this prior, you know, technical expertise that allowed you to see through the bullshit of what was real, what was fake, what was valuable at this initial blow-off on the AI trade. Do you think that edge has eroded and there's sort of a new game being played? The technical expertise doesn't help as much, or is it equally as valuable as it was six months ago, a year ago?
SPEAKER_01It's definitely equally as valuable, and especially if you disagree with the market, right? So um it takes time for the market to either like understand new information, or the market may weigh like certain kinds of information more than you would because they're run by like people who are not as like in the weeds or technical. So um Intel Earnings is a good example always because no one really knows what to make sense of it for a few days. But I also think like an example of uh people weighing things more than they should is like whatever NVIDIA does is like all that matters, right? But people don't understand like most of like the compute in the future, it's probably not gonna be NVIDIA, right? Like it'll probably be like uh all the hyperscalers own personal compute, you know, TPUs, training, meta. It doesn't mean NVIDIA is like gonna go away. Like the pie is growing, right? Like the whole class of like market is growing, right? There's growth in this industry, but you have to understand that like what one person says doesn't set the you know rules for the whole entire industry, the industry moves based on what's the optimal choice, right? From an engineering or money perspective. So, what do you think that means for the future of Nvidia's mode and like dominance? I mean, when you're like when you have like these 75% margins to like like right place, right time, right? But like as uh like Uncle Jeff always says, it's like your margin someone else's opportunity, right? Yeah, you can only get get away with it for so long, and there's a reason why hyperscalers for their own internal workloads are investing in you know their own ASICs, right? Like, or investing in their own interconnects, they want to own it because at the scale that they're spending money, why would you be beholden to a customer? Like, even you, like you want to like do a business, right? Like, you'd be really dumb if like you only prioritize one microphone company, right? For your podcast, you'd be like, Well, what if this microphone? Like, I like it, but I'm willing to change if like they start charging me too much or like they're not shipping. So I just don't I just don't know. I think um I think it's clear, like NVIDIA has you know a pretty dominant position right now, but the incentive structure for the labs and the hyperscalers is to you know vertically integrate. That's the incentive.
SPEAKER_03It's kind of like this trini post I think he made about uh with memory and micron after their earnings. And he was like, Okay, margins are insane, their earnings are disgusting, but the bear side to this is how long is the market gonna let them get away with I mean, fleecing everybody else, of course.
SPEAKER_01And I've always I've always like, yeah, that's just to your point, like Micron has higher margins than even NVIDIA, and they sell a less differentiated product, like people are more willing to um just think of the value NVIDIA is adding, right? Like they are more willing to pay a premium because you're managing, you know, infrastructure, you're making a unique differentiated product, there's all this capital expenditure, like people don't want to take on that risk all the time, but you know, that's why people pay a premium. But micron is really probably like the worst memory maker from just a quality perspective, really? Yeah, just like from a quality perspective, their HBM has always been like the lowest quality. And one thing, I don't know if I mentioned this in the last stream, but if you actually look at the big three memory makers, Samsung, SK, Micron, people think it's all about HBM because that's what the GPUs use. Now that's part of it, but most of the growth is actually coming from the commodity RAM. Because to make HBM, you take commodity DRAM wafers and you slice them, you dice them, and you stack them, right? So they consume commodity DRAM. So look at that. Um, you know, people still need DRAM for other things, right? But there's this big uh AI build out where people are gonna just start consuming that, and the price of commodity DRAM has just skyrocketed even more than HBM. HBM's like steady to flat, maybe slightly up, slightly down, because they because they have capacity, right? But commodity DRAM, like just the stuff you're putting in your PC, that's shooting through the roof, and that's where Micron and all these other people are making their money. But really, Micron is the most egregious because their HBM was always the lowest quality. Their HBM is the lowest quality, but they're just dominating on a layer below with the yeah, I mean, like exactly because let's just say like NVIDIA, and I don't have these numbers off the top of my head, but let's just say NVIDIA sources 10 of their HBM from Micron, and they source like 40 from SK, you know, 50 from Samsung or whatever, right? Well, there's less DRAM, like there's just less commodity DRAM, and Micron's just gonna charge the market price for it. So, what does this mean for CXMT IPO? Is that yeah? All right, so like it's funny because you already because you said, like, oh, I I made all these great calls. I'll give you a call. If you can get access to CS CXMT's IPO, you should just like full port that. Um, you should just like I was thinking of like you know, pawning like everything I own to get more money to do this because it's extremely like mispriced, it's extremely lower. And the thing is, CXMT, despite them, like you know, they're Chinese, they don't really have an HBM product, the demand for just Kamai DRAM is so high, and they still get to charge that premium. And they're mainly selling to Chinese companies, right? So there's been like a lot of talk like CXMT is gonna crash the DRAM market. I mean, it's not in their incentive to do that either, because they don't make fucking like good HBM either, but they can sell to all the Chinese companies and make tons of money. And if you just look at like what Micron trades at, what CXMT is gonna IPO at, and then just look at like how many bits or like DRAM sells their shipping, CXMT is extremely cheap. That's partly because it's Chinese, right?
SPEAKER_03So at what price is it still egregiously cheap? Because I think hyperliquid valuation right now is 400 billion, give or take.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, that that doesn't sound that cheap to me, but I think uh Chinese uh I feel it's 130, maybe. Yeah, that sounds pretty cheap. But I mean, even at 400, it'll grow into it. Like, I don't think it's the end of the world, but like at 130, I'm like moving to China if I can to get access.
SPEAKER_03Okay, I don't have that much experience trading emerging markets, but the age old ism is like never trade Chinese companies ever. Why like why? Where does that come from?
SPEAKER_01I think it's I think partly it's because like government intervention, the markets like the government will back an industry, and then immediately when like the industry is in trouble, we'll just be like, you know, you guys gotta figure it out, like like stop living off of our like you know, welfare or our coattails. So the Chinese industry, like the uh you know, the CCP, the central party, they will prioritize an industry. They did this with uh EVs a couple years ago, right? And all the EV companies were great buys, but now they're not because they're in deadly competition. China's not about like, from my perspective, the Chinese like stock market and the government there is not like, oh, I want a big winner, I just want like the biggest market cap company. It's more like I want this industry and I want people to compete to lower the cost. I want like this is gonna be a public good. Like electric cars, cheap electric cars is great for the Chinese people, it's great for the world. Cheap memory will be the same thing. But the thing is with these semiconductor companies, they actually can't employ that uh strategy. They actually have to back them because it's such like the capital that you need to play in this game, especially at the global scale, is just so high that it doesn't actually make sense to make people like compete. It makes sense for people to come together and work together, right? So I think uh for the semi companies, it's it's extremely like it's a great opportunity. And I'm invested personally in like some Chinese companies.
SPEAKER_03Bubble Boy, shout out to Bubble Boy. I look forward to part three at some point in the near future, maybe 200 intel. And um, maybe I'll see you in New York. Yeah, for sure, man. All right, my guy. Much love, dude. Thanks for coming on. Bye. Peace. Have a good weekend. I love you. I will catch you when I catch you. I'll see you when I see you. Have a great rest of your day. It's not even my favorite Italian brain rock character. I'm gonna keep it a buck. I'll see you when I see you. Peace.