Korea's Leverage Wipeout, SpaceX is Crashing Fast, and is Crypto Bottomed?

Korea circuit-breakers into a leverage wipeout, Trump declares the USA guardian of the Hormuz Strait live on stream, and Apple prints an all-time high the same morning it sues OpenAI. Plus a 10 for 10 Polymarket World Cup run, SpaceX flirting with its IPO price, the Elon vs Sam beef, and the case that crypto just bottomed.

Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:00

Oh, what the fuck is going on? Y'all doing? How y'all feeling? How are you? Oh, living. Welcome back to the stream. Welcome back to the stream. Welcome back to the street. It is 8 37 a.m. And we have a lot to talk about today. I actually woke up this morning, and the first thing I it's crazy. I did it subconsciously. I didn't even realize I was doing it. I woke up, got on a morning call, and the first chart that I checked was on deck screener, which is crazy. I don't really know the last. I mean, what is the last time? The first chart that I've checked is a deck screener chart. I don't even really know when that was, to be honest with you. And I wish I didn't check it. And then I went over and I checked on Trading View, and that wasn't much better either. But yeah, SK Honic's down 17%. Cosby circuit breaker. I think it's like a 20th time this year. There's been more circuit breakers on the cost me this month, I think, than in the history of its trading chart. History ever. So it's a little bit of a scary day today. I feel like it's fucking groundhog day, man. I I feel like it's fucking groundhog day with this war in oil stuff. First of all, I missed a couple days. I was gone on Friday. I missed Friday. I went to the World Cup game, Spain and Belgium in Los Angeles on Friday. It was all because Phantom Wallet, the background. Phantom brought me, it was a fucking movie. Phantom moves crazy. Phantom Moves different. I'm not gonna lie. Phantom Moves Different. It was an absolute movie. It was a sick game. Um, I also bet I have this like I'm on this betting run. I hung out with one of my friends like four weeks, five weeks ago, maybe on the first day of World Cup games. And my homie was like, yo, I'm about to bet on. I don't even know who was playing. I have the Paraguay and somebody I'm about to bet. And I'm like, fuck it, throw my money down. What are you betting on? It's like, oh, poly market. I'm like, yeah, throw my bet, throw my money down. And I gave him 500. He started with 500. And we rolled the 500 account into 10 wins in a row. Accounts worth 5k right now. 10 10 wins in a row, proper bet sizing, win into rolling into a win, into rolling into a win, into rolling into a win, into rolling into a win. And 10 for 10, 1k account into 5k. It's kind of a movie. So shout out to Pauly Market, shout out to the World Cup, shout out to Phantom for Friday. Um, I went to LA for the first time since I left. And I'm gonna be honest, like, I don't know if anyone else it's a ghost town, man. I'm not gonna lie. I was staying in Santa Monica and it was a Friday night, and I was walking around to get dinner. It's genuinely ghost town. There's no there's nothing there, there's nobody there. Like, I did everybody just leave at the same time. I don't really know what happened. There's nobody there, it feels over, like there's nobody in LA. And I am happy to be back. So, all right, I got a couple intro stuff. First and foremost, on the IRL thesis, um, the Seattle Seahawks just sold $10 billion, the most expensive NFL sale ever. And you don't often get sports teams going up for sale, and you definitely don't often get sports teams going up for sale that just won the championship. And so they sold for $10 billion. I am increasingly convinced on the IRL thesis, the best way to express it is sports sports teams. Like, I think sports tickets, we've talked about it a bunch, is gonna go up only, and it's only right if the price of these sports teams go up only as well. $10 billion for the Seahawks just happened. It led me to this tweet that I was not aware was a thing that the Atlanta Braves is a public stock. You can buy the Atlanta Braves holdings. Let's see, be this. Yeah, there you go. Look at this thing. Try it looks fucking insane. It's crazy too because the Atlanta Braves stock is up only while baseball viewership is down only. I don't know when the last time I watched a baseball game is the Braves are public, man you is public, and Madison Square Gardens, there's like the entertainment, and then there was the arena that has where the Knicks play and they do events and whatnot, up only as well. So it's basically the Knicks. Knicks, Braves, Manu. All the charts look insane, and I would imagine they just go up only. The other one is TKO, which is the White House, or excuse me, which is the UFC. It's down two percent today. I guess it's counterintuitive to my IRL sports thesis, but I'm kind of bearish on the UFC. I am pretty bearish on the UFC. I don't know. The McGregor thing was awful. I hope he's okay. It's tough to watch, but the UFC does not have stars anymore. It was McGregor. McGregor's washed, it was Sean O'Malley. Sean O'Malley is completely watched, it was Ilias, sort of. He's he lost, it's not Patty, he's not that good, and it's Sean Strickland, bro. And he is the most biggest brand risk fighter you could ever have. Sean Strickland is the face of the UFC, is insane. Everybody knows Patrick Mahomes, everybody knows Travis Kelsey, even though he's not really a star anymore. Everybody knows Brady. Who cares if he's retired? The UFC has no stars anymore, they have NBA stars, and so I don't know. I think this is a problem. The UF every sports league has stars, and that's my intro. I have a lot to get into today, and it is a little bit scary in the markets today. So let's start here with South Korea and SK Heinex went live with an ADR on the Nasdaq, New York Stock Exchange on Friday. I missed Friday's stream, and in today's, I guess yesterday or slash today's trading session, SK Heinex is limit down. Um I think it was as much as 17. This chart is giving me 13. Top to bottom, skyinex on South Korea Exchange is down 38 percentage points and is striking some fear into the memory trade. Crazy chart. And it's sort of at the spot right now. We're gonna go over pre-market soon in a minute. Pre-market is pretty scary as well. It's sort of at I don't want to say like do or die, but it starts to get pretty ugly from here. And I think one of the reasons it gets pretty ugly from here is when you sit back and you look at all of these like triple leveraged, 5x leverage, skynix, etf, like you see the stuff people have been trading as it relates specifically to the South Korea trade, and there is so much leverage in the system, it's it's it's disgusting. So here's SK Heinex, it's on 38 top to bottom. The cospie was limit down nine. This is also down what 27.5% top to bottom. And I don't know the next what's the next line for the cosby? It's like 6300, it's like third, it'd be like another five or six percent down, and below that it starts to really get ugly. All right, here's where we're at. Like, I know technical analysis is astrology from men, but SK Onyx either bottoms at 1850 or the gaps that need to be filled will wipe out an entire generation of leveraged up Koreans. Where's 1850 on SK Hynix? I mean, this is the line 1850. It feels like lower than this, we're going to like gap gap fill number one, 1680, gap fill number two, 1440. That'd be 52. And you gotta remember, it feels as if everyone buying the Korea stuff is so leveraged, like bare minimum. People are buying the 2x leverage SK Heinex, but I don't know. There's five X's, there's 10Xs. It is yeah. South Korea Cosby closes down 8.95 after circuit breaker triggered. SK Heinex falls for 15 on July 13th, South Korea's cospie triggered a circuit breaker during intraday trading and closed down 8.95 at 6806. SK Heinex fell 15.37 to KRW 1.8 million down at 38 from its intraday record high on June 25th. Dumb question. Why would a foreign company partner with a bank to issue an ADR for US investors rather than list it in the US? I actually don't know. Let's just ask ChatGPT. I have no idea. I don't really know how this ADR stuff works, to be honest. I don't think that's a dumb question at all. Not a dumb question. Lower regulatory burden, keep the primary market at home, access US capital without a full listing. They probably felt some pressure just to like jam this thing through right now while there's all this demand. Also, if you remember, like the story was Leopold Ashenbrenner was going to buy, I don't know, seven billion dollars or something, maybe ten billion dollars of the ADR of SK Heinex at like a 10% premium. Memory is in a really tough spot. And so you see, in this world, there's only two kinds of markets, my friend, the semiconductor go-up market and the oil go-up market. And unfortunately, right now, we are in the go-up market. I actually cannot believe we are still talking about the trade of horror moves and war and oil right now. But I mean, pre-market right now is pretty disgusting. The ugliest is DRAM, I think, right now, because you know, I drew this line on I drew this line on Wednesday at 54. And I said, if it gets to 54, I'm just gonna close my eyes and we're gonna bid. And we knew we were gonna get this like these flood narratives, and so you had basically the combination of memory is a commodity, Apple's gonna buy from China, like memory's getting cheap, memory is a commodity, and these margins cannot stay forever. At the same time, you have like war escalations heating up again, and so memory gets crushed on Wednesday. I draw this line at 54, it gets to like 56 on a wick, closes at 57, and then they pump it 15. And so I think to myself, all right, fuck it. Probably for the better. That was the dip. I didn't, I didn't I didn't bid anything. Also, it's not really my type of trade, like I'm not really like you know, knife catching DRAM based off of price action. It's just not my style. So I didn't to be honest, I didn't really want to bid it, but I drew the line as it as it made sense on sort of this gap fill. And so they pump it like 15, and then off of SK Heinrich, and in the pre-market right now, we're down like we're down 12, it's on 10 in pre-market right now. Friday was red, and all of a sudden the charts are looking terrible. So DRAM looks horrid, bags don't look that bad at all. Um, but the socks looks pretty bad as well. Semi-index is down like 3.2% in some change. Um, our biggest names look pretty bad as well. Micron's down six in the pre-market, San Israel down six in the pre-market, and all of a sudden, Intel is down four. SpaceX is 143, looks horrid. Tesla is down one, like all of a sudden, these names start to look NVIDIA's down two percent in the pre-market, these names start to look really scary. Honestly, I cannot believe that we're doing this again. That's a Monday after a long weekend where crypto looked great and meme coins were pumping, and then we have two nine-figure runners, and we're coming back, and I'm like ready to be bull crypto rotation. Like, I'm like ready to be bullish on uh, you know, excited about crypto, and then all of a sudden it's like bink war and oil are I don't know, back on the menu. And so these charts don't look that insane, but WTI is up I don't know, 10% off the bottom. Brent is up about the same, 10% from the bottom. I think the thing that is scariest about the war and oil situation is one, the fact that we're still here is like unbelievably ridiculous. I I genuinely cannot believe we're still doing this. But the second is that we're still here three, four months in February, March, April, May, June, July, like five months, five full months, and oil is as cheap as it was on March 1st. That I think is the scary part. And so, what the justification is for DRAM dump, unclear. It feels like oil slash war fear plays a role, and it is not up at all. And I don't know, man. I feel like I'm going insane. How are we still doing this with Iran? We're at like ceasefire number 10, peace deal number 20. First strike was feb February 28th on the week-long war, and we're like five months in, and we're still going. And so, I mean, look at these markets, man. Like, straight on booth traffic returned to normal by July 31st. This was as high as 72, and it's it's three percent, like it's it's it's zero. And so that's basically the story. I'm not long oil, I think it's a terrifying trade. I really have no interest in doing it, but it's back on the menu. Memory charts look horrible, and the stock market opens in five minutes. So, on that note, stock market is officially open. Let's go, let's go. Buy opens down 0.3 percent. The Qs opened down 1.2, DRAM down nine, down nine percent even to start. And it's yeah, this is a scary one, it really is. I have a line at 5439, and I don't know, am I a buyer here? Maybe, maybe not, but it feels like a buyer level if you are 737. We'll check back in on it. Um, bags are actually holding up pretty strong. I think high time frame mags looks pretty good. 6754, and it's not all-time highs, but it's not that far off. Mags right now are like five percent off. Meta's been getting some hype. We're gonna cover the meta topics. Apple looks like it wants to rip. That was green in the pre, and mags looks pretty good. It's about to flip green today. Um, DRAM fighting a little bit, spots gonna be down 0.2. The socks is down 3.3. The Dow was actually green on the day, despite looking red, and looks like it wants to go up. All right, cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is pretty ugly right now. Question is where does semi-money rotate to? It's a good question. Right now, it seems like the match. Um, Bitcoin 62.5, and it is just yeah, it's struggling. Silver and gold are both pretty red. Zcash is about 500, which is really strong. Um, hyper liquid 64, that's on five percent. That's had a pretty nasty day. Lighter as well, that's on 10 at 235. Pvs back at $10. Crypto across the board here is pretty ugly. Solana's 75.7, Warren Oil, crude's up three, but red on since the open. Same with Brent. On our AI names, we're about two minutes into open. SAS is at least Salesforce is green. IBM is also really green. Adobe is green. Is the IGV green? It feels like it. IGV is green, that's up a percent. Um, Netflix is also green, 2.5. Um, snowflake is also green. Apple about to hit 320. That's up 1.4 percent on news that they're suing open AI. Seems significant. Microsoft as well. Yeah, SAS is definitely green. That's up a percent. Amazon also up a percent. It's printing a fat green candle on Amazon right now, where it gets a little bit scary. Sandis is down six point six, farm is down six, micron is down five and a half, and it is fighting. Shaw's is I'm probably gonna have to cut this, is down five point seven six. It's about to lose 70 again, and it has sort of retraced whatever move it tried to fight. Intel is down five and a half, four and a half. Excuse me. It's getting ready to lose a hundred. Um, is that a new all-time high in Apple? Is that true? Is that true? Is that true? Yes, it is. New all time high in Apple. Look at that. Look at that. And Apple, it's also giving us an eight on Z score, which is crazy. Intel is pretty horrifying. Look at this Intel chart. That is a rough one. You don't want to see this like 100 level get lost on Intel. All of a sudden, it's gonna feel pretty, pretty grim. Uh, we're about to get our first five-minute close. Marvell, that's also down five and a half percent. Retrace the entire Jensen pump. Look at this. Go went for basically went for the gap fill at 220. Marvell is now down top wick to current price 33. I mean, man, if you're a buyer of of these names, there is blood on the streets. AMD is down four. Um, Cy, ugh, disgusting. Nokia down 4.3. ASTS space stock, that's on three and a half. Um, BB, that's on 3.2, Broadcom back below 400. Let's think closed on Friday at 400 back below 400. ASML is on 2.5, Rocket Lab on 2.5, lost 80. Rocket Lab is on 47. Man, horrid, horrid, horrid, horrid, horrid, horrid. Red wire, that's on 2.5, QCon 1.5. Cerebrus has been really strong, I believe. Uh I think Frank came in here and said he was in it. Cerebrus looks decent, especially if it can get back above like 220. Cerebrus looks pretty good. They're involved in all the positive open AI news. I think Cerebrus actually looks pretty solid. Bloom Energy has been D Nap. What's up with Bloom Energy? They had some like lawsuit. Some send me Bloom Energy stuff we can go over. They're down a percent. Robo Strategy is down 2.5. SpaceX. Now, what do we do here, ladies and gentlemen? First tick on SpaceX was 150 on the IPO. The deal was done at 135. So if you got in the IPO, your price is 135. And so if you lose 135, there's this Gavin Baker clip talking about Cerebrus that the bankers are gonna rage sell SpaceX if you lose 135. Same thing happened to Cerebrus when I lost deal price. Now, the flip to that is are they going to defend try like fuck to defend 135? Maybe, maybe not. But you also worry that every day that passes, we're closer and closer and closer to dilution on SpaceX. And so this chart is starting to look it looks like a meme coin. It's on 37%. What's good, wavy? The thing that's crazy about SpaceX, by the way, is it's just printing. I mean, it's printing the IPO fractal. It's printing the same fractal that everybody thought or said it was gonna print, like every IPO does. And for a second, it looked like no, no, no, no, this one is different, and this one is not different. This also sets a pretty nasty precedent for anthropic and open AI IPOs. Meta 666, and it's sort of come back from the dead a little bit, despite being down 0.4 percent. We will do a little meta segment relatively soon here, but we gotta do a couple more five-minute closes. We're seven minutes into the open, NVIDIA's down a percent, Google's up or down 0.4. All right, let's check some of our like consumer names. Where's Robin Hood to start? Hood is very strong, um, up about a percent. I wonder how much the crypto news is going to help Robin Hood. Like, I wonder if that is if they start making meaningful revenue, get meaningful adoption, if there's enough tailwinds on the crypto chain to help Robin Hood. Amit made a nice post about it right here where he says, I've covered Robin Hood for the past three years, and it's fair to say something really different has happened in the past two weeks since their crypto event in the UK. This is the biggest Robin Hood bowl in the world, by the way. One week after launch of the Robin Hood chain, 17 million transactions, 350,000 total addresses, 250 million in protocol TVL, more than 1 billion in DEX trading volume. That's a lot. Um, three days ago, Robinhood chain flipped hyperliquid at 24-hour DEX volume. The implications for Hood are significant and really cannot be ignored by the market. It's evolving from a brokerage that earns customer trading activity, that earns from customer trading activity into a vertically integrated financial ecosystem with its own blockchain, exchange infra, tokenized assets, and on-change liquidity. This, along with the Trump accounts, which I agree, the Trump accounts are significant to me. It's why I think the stock has finally decoupled from Bitcoin. It is now trading at 80% above its lows in May. That's a big deal. Um, bitcoin could go up or down. The market has moved on with pegging hood's stock to random bitcoin fluctuations because hood is so so much more important than what happens to any individual coin. Robin of Chicken 2 is getting adoption, Robota could capture economics from blockchain fees, deck, dex fees, tokenized stocks, stablecoin payments, third-party applications, da da da da da da da. So we'll see, but it definitely is setting up a pretty nice precedent for hood. Nebus is down five, and oh god, that looks like it's going back for the lows. Um, core weave is also down five. MSTR announced today that they've raised more cash. I think they have three billion dollars of cash on hand to fund 1.7 billion of annual dividends. Maybe this means strategy doesn't have to sell more Bitcoin for a while, but stock does not like where we are at. Mar is down three, Eli Lilly is down one, Coinbase down 1.5, Hims is down one, IBK is on one, IGV lost it. They've gone green. I ran down 0.5. Stubhub is not really dumping the way that I feel like it should be. It's at $11. Um, Hood is now down one, lost the whole pump. What's green? What's green? Figma's up five, sweet green's up five, draft kings up three and a half, reddit is up two and a half, back above 200. Roblox is up 3.3. Uber. Wow, why why is Uber up 2% today? Lululemon's up two percent. Shout out to Michael Burry. GameStop is up one percent. It's crazy. GameStop doesn't move. Um, you would think that this thing would be volatile. It doesn't move, it just straight up does not move. But GameStop is up one percent. Take two interactive, that is also up one percent. Oh, speaking of take two interactive, real quick, and a quick follow-up on microtransactions is remember, I told you the story that all of the YouTubers were protesting, boycotting playing NCA 27 because the microtransactions got so out of hand. Well, it worked, and EA confirmed plans to remove all paid progression options from Road to Glory and Online Dynasty. And the insane that this worked. And I'm gonna be honest, if you're take two interactive, I think it's a little bit scary because you are banking 10 years of your company on insane microtransaction revenue from GTA, and this sets the precedent that there's going to be protests, like they are not. I'm go, I would imagine if I had to guess, GTA 6 is gonna be microtransactioned to fuck, and people are gonna be really unhappy about it. And so, what they're gonna do, take two, I don't know, but if it worked once, they're gonna try to do it again. It's crazy. Mags are green led by Apple. Where's Apple right now? Apple, Apple, Apple. Wow, three twenty two on Apple. Crazy. The company that has spent no money on AI, zero. All they have is insane amounts of cash on hand. They've spent no money on AI, they're not a frontier lab, they're not really doing anything interesting. Apple intelligence is whatever, series sub. They have done absolutely nothing, and they are winning by doing nothing. Let's check our unshain coins. Tashcat is 150. Ansome is 240. And this doesn't look great. All right, we have a lot of topics to get into. That was the first 30 minutes of market open. And as always, market open is powered by Phantom Wallet. Phantom Wallet, we love you. It only makes sense that market open is powered by Phantom Wallet, which you can use to trade everything: stocks, perps, crypto, on-chain, RWAs, tokenize this, tokenize that. If you could trade it, Phantom has it. So there's a couple like space. I have a little space segment. I just want to watch a few of these like Chinese uh space companies. Let's see, what do I have? What do I have on here actually? Um let's see. More evidence that China will never be able to catch up with SpaceX. Japan tests experimental reusable rocket in first flight. What what even what is that? Well, what is that? Dog, what? That looks like my water heater. That was insane. It's no so no one is anywhere close. What else do I have on here? This is why uh Eilen wanted what China just did cheap on the first try. Cheap Chinese LM sweep the market, but create a very American response function. Throw more money at the poll, make it strategically viral. We'll see what happens with space. Press from Chinese competitions will push her money to SpaceX in the entire company. My girl has a rubber version of that. She must be a SpaceX holder, is crazy. Um, I'll tell you this. I went on, I flew JetBlue this weekend, and Jet Blue doesn't have Starlink. Any plane without Starlink is quite literally unflyable, is unflyable. A plane that has as Starlink is worth two, like probably worth 2x the ticket cost is unflyable because you get stuck in this frustrating problem where the Wi-Fi works but not good enough to use it, and it is genuinely unflyable. I I could not believe what I experienced on this jet blue flight was so bad. And wow, 138. This thing is weak, dude. Kind of feel like it's done for the day, though. Like, are they just gonna give us the 135 entry? Why do you need Wi-Fi on a plane? Because I I can't read, I get like plane sick, but I can tweet. Um, I can't believe that I missed Sam Altman versus Elon over the weekend and over Friday. And so, first of all, Scam Altman got a little pumped, but that's not the point of this topic. Um, this Doge Designer guy makes a tweet on Elon Musk warned the world about Scam Altman. Now everyone is finding out why. And Gito just ripped. Let me see. Gito, Gito, Gito, Gito, Gito, Gito, Gito. Whoa, yeah, it did. Just ripped. Why? Wait, what happened? Gito. Thank you. They have a launch. What happened? Gino network to whoa. Gito networked to allocate a hundred percent of JTX revenue on buybacks and to buybacks and burns. Whoa, wow. Trump on Iran. USA will be known as the Guardian of Hormuz Strait. The Mushra is open and will remain open with or without Iran. We are reinstating the Iranian blockade, so named because it is only stopping Iran ships or customers from entering or leaving. All other countries will have fair and open use of the strait. The USA will be from this point forward known as the guardian of the Hormuz Strait. As such and as a matter of fairness, will be reimbursed at the rate of 20% on all cargo ship for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the world. The process information will begin immediately. Um oil handling on the news. Wait, hold on. What did I just read? We'll be re what does this mean? Uh we'll be reimbursed at the rate. What did I just read? We'll be reimbursed at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped. What does this mean? I don't get it. US Davy will protect the trade of her moves so ships. Oh, got it. So they're gonna protect the trade of our moves, and then they're gonna take 20% of everybody else's cargo. He's taking a toll now, dude. Oh my god, that's terrible. Holy shit. Let's see.

SPEAKER_00 26:15

The leaders are gone. They had leaders, they're gone. And they had another set of leaders, they're gone. Now they have another set of leaders, they may be gone. Who knows? And yeah, and you know what? I may be gone too, because I'm their number one target. We're not playing around this time, dude.

SPEAKER_01 26:30

The US freaked out and said there's no way we're paying. Yeah, there goes Max. There's no way we're paying this Iranian toll. And then the US said, actually, fuck that. We're gonna charge the toll, and everybody else is gonna pay our toll. Wow. And oil's long oil's lower than before the war started. We still have a bunch of topics to cover. Uh, let's do Calvin wellness check real quick. I feel bad, dude. Oh, he's tweeting! No, baby, he's tweeting. Whoa, something big must have just gotten hit, he says. Wow. What's what did Evans tweet? Yeah. It feels like fucking groundhog day. Where's Brent? Oh my god. The thing is, it's just like it's under. I mean, I I sold my oil at I sold my big crude oil at like 125 or something. It's like $80. That was months ago. Um, all right, here's where I got distracted, but it is important to cover real quick. On Sama Elon. So Elon co-tweets him, says he takes Gaming to a new whole new level, which by the way, if I recall correctly, there hasn't been any interaction between Elon and Sam negatively since the lawsuit. And Sam Altman, homeboy, you're the one selling public market investors on short-term space data centers. Elon replied after tweeting that you don't understand SpaceX will be worth more than the rest of Earth if we accomplish our goals. Rips a tweet and says we start flying them next year. Maybe you can come see them if your parole officer approves. After stealing an open source AI charity, you then stole all of Apple's phone technology. Wow. What do you plan for an encore that is tough to beat? Sam Alton replied, There's a lot of benchmarks that suggest 5.6 soul is the best model in the world right now. But the most reliable way to tell is that Elon is obsessed with me again. And then Elon comes out, not at the same time, but at a different time, a couple days before, but relevant, and says, I was clearly wrong about anthropic. They're obviously currently the leader in AI. No company has released a model that's as good as Mythos Fable, and they will undoubtedly have Mythos 2 ready soon. I would never cut them off in a way that hurt them badly, even as a competitor. That's not my style. Tesla open sources patents, and we made the supercharger network available to all competitors, even though we could have made it a walled garden. SpaceX launches competing satellite systems with no increase in price or use of unfair terms. Even my worst enemies can attack me on this platform. The enemy of my enemy is my friend. And they pay me 1.5 billion a month. But the enemy of my enemy is my friend all day, all fucking day, every day. Um, I'll tell you this. I know that half of Twitter is in AI psychosis right now, and nobody can really figure out if these tools are actually good, if there's a complete waste of money, if who's in psychosis, the people that use it, or the people that don't. There's the perpetual debate about this. I'm just gonna tell you that Fable is so incredible. It's the real deal. It is. It is it is I have not used so full soul point 5.6, and I've definitely been critical of some of these LMs in the past. I'm sorry to be the guy to tell you this, but if you have not used it, Fable it's just the real deal. I don't know what else to say. It's the real deal. I'm not even building anything with it, I'm using it for like my personal life, help with my writing, grade the streams, tell me what it thinks about topic ideas or like organization of topics or organization of the streams, or like help me break down financials of a stock. Very simple life stuff. I'm not building anything, I'm not even using it to code, it's built me nothing. And dude, it is so good. So I guess on that topic, also there's this protest. There's also there's an anthropic protest and open AI protest, like stop AI build out or something. Good luck. But at the same time, meta released Muse Spark 1.1. I can't believe we missed this on Friday. I guess we didn't miss it on Friday, but we missed like a lot of the posting on Friday. Meta stock as a response is trading pretty well, all things considered. Um, it's up like off the bottom, we're up 22%. Top tick, it was up 26. They release uh Spark 1.1. I think it's pretty hilarious that Zuck makes his first tweet in like a long, long time. Zuck hasn't tweeted since 2023 before that, 2012. He tweeted 2023 to announce threads before that 2012 is the last time he tweeted, and he announced it on Twitter because it's the town square of the world. And with the announcement, like, let me see. Yeah, Global Town Square, we know this. It's pretty crazy. Like, they announced Music 1.1, um, image model natively in Facebook and Instagram, things like this. And they're basically on Twitter posting the one-minute chart, right? Like, Alexander, this tweet was made at 1110 on Friday. Quote tweet at 1250, talking about how Meta's retraced its daily dump and turned green. Alexander Wang market is spoken, is is pretty pretty insane to me. Elon follows him. He then quote tweets semi-analysis, which to me is pretty crazy. Compute daddy, uh, Dylan Patel is spoken. That I mean, they're basically quote, like Dylan Patel is that guy, it's like kind of citrini adjacent. But the people leading super intelligence labs are basically quote tweeting Twitter posters to justify their stock market price and their margins and their their valuation on the open market is fucking insane to me. But I think the one thing that's true after using Fable is this idea that like everyone is competing for and posting about the fact that they have Opus level intelligence, like number three, number four, number five uh in the lead, or posting that they have opus level intelligence, right? But open AI and Anthropic have mythos level intelligence, and as time goes on and you use Fable, I haven't used 5.6, but it seems to be pretty comparable. It feels as if the gap between one and two and then three is so extreme, there's almost no catching up because you use Fable and then you get limited back to 4.8, and it's an unbelievable step down, like it's an unbelievable step down to come back to Opus after using Fable. It doesn't even I don't even want to use it. I I you know I asked it this, I was deep in a combo with it, and I asked it this question about like I asked it a question about mushrooms, and it bumped me down to 4.8 because I I guess it doesn't want to do like drug paraphernalia. And I'm just like, I I closed it, closed it completely, no interest when I read it. Like, I don't even want to talk to 4.8. That's how much better it is, and so it does feel like this there's this ever-widening gap between um leading labs number one, number two, and then leading lab number three, whoever it is, if it's perplexity at the moment, if it's Google at the moment, if it is whatever, meta at the moment, whoever it is, it feels like the gap is so extreme. So, on that topic, real quick of AI as well. There was two robotics product videos that went crazy viral over the weekend. I didn't I saved them for street, I didn't get to watch them yet. Number one is introducing Neo's 25 degrees of freedom, tendon tendon-driven hands, nearing or surpassing human-level dexterity, strength, speed, and reliability. For 70 years, robotics worked around the hand problem. The humanoid bet is the reverse. It lives or dies at the fingertips. Has anyone watched this? No, not the Lego. Imagine this robot scares you, and so you unplug it and it plugs itself back in and says, No, I'm gonna stay on. Okay, now watch this. You thought that was bad. Watch this one. Same company or no? Same company or different company? Same company. DNA, where's the third one where it's like doing the finger stuff? Where's the third one? Oh, here. Yeah. They knew what the fuck they were doing with this video, brother. They knew exactly what they were doing by posting this, man. And so that's the update on robotics. I feel like every day we come on here and there's some new crazy robotics product release. And yeah, there seemingly is some new crazy robotics product release. Fable is the greatest model of all time. I mean, it's unbelievable how good Fable is. And the robotics figured out hand dexterity and are basically sex toys. What a time to be alive! All right, let's hop into Robin Hood a little bit and talk crypto. Here's where we're at. Like, I don't think much has really changed as it relates to Robinhood chain. I think I still find myself genuinely pretty optimistic about what their potential is. I think, um, look, I think it's the first real like wrinkle of optimism we've had in crypto on-chain for a long time. It's like you have Robin Hood, the retail chain retail exchange with 25 uh 27 million funded accounts. Obviously, there's a reason there you would get excited about on-chain. Like, there's a it makes sense, even though corporate chains have historically not worked super well. Obviously, it makes sense why people would get excited. I don't hold anything on it right now. I played Cash Cat pretty bad. If you remember, I bought it 60, just chopped myself around and around and around and around and around and around like an idiot, but it happens. But the metrics right now are pretty impressive. Um, launch pad scene and robin chain is exploding. Daily new tokens on Robin Hood through uh Nox of Fun is up only. Yeah, we remember. I know we remember. Daily New Tokens, which I don't know if that's like the best metric, is up only. Um, let's see what Adam Tech has. This is hourly tokens deployed. Um, volume on EVM dexes, Robin Hood, significant share, meaningful share. And this is Robin Hood chain dex volume. They did basically a billion dollars three days in a row, which is and it's impressive. It's an impressive number for looking at it objectively. Um, let's see this. Robinhood is rolling Robin Hood Earn. This is part of what you said you wanted to happen. Robin Hood Earn, yeah. This is a big deal as well. Lend USDG on chain through a self-custody wallet and earn estimates 7% APY. That is an insane amount. Where does the yield come from? I don't know. Letting itself runs on Morpho, one of the most established protocols in decentralized finance, all accessible on the Robin Hood app. 7% APY to hold their stable coin is a lot. Now, did Morpho go up from this? Not bad, not great, but it's in a nice little sweet little range here. Um, it is in a sweet little range, I can't lie. In the morpho, is this biddable? I don't really know that much about their fundamentals and and financials, but it's pretty impressive what uh what Robin Hood has done so far. Um, we also know that they're a competitor on the perp scene, like they want to compete in perps, as we know. And I don't know, man, we'll see. Like, the thing that I'll say, especially as it relates to the special situations types of trades, is Cash Cat was just one of those. And I try to go back in time and think to myself, could I theoretically have bid this coin at 5 million on the Robin Hood chain? Like, is that something in hindsight I would have done? And the answer is probably no, but should I have just done absolutely nothing at 50 mil when the special situations trade turned itself into a special situation? And the answer is like obviously yes. So I don't think fucked that trade up a little bit, and I did some reflecting on it over the weekend. But these spots do appear where there is some crazy unknown thrown to the known. My reflection on it was basically buy less, stop with the sizing, like chill the fuck out with the sizing, please. Please chill out with the sizing. And so we'll see if I'm able to do it. Um, I guess it leads me to this other topic, then, which is the idea of a crypto bottom here. I'm not sure that I'm convinced, but I think the conditions feel good, and uh they feel about the same as when I was first buying Zcash two months ago and we made the Zcash trade. And I said that there's a small basket of vaults that have carved out their position in the world that they matter, and I think these are gonna do really well. And they did well, and crypto was interesting, and then it kind of got destroyed. Sailor sells, wipe out of positioning, start over from zero, and then here we are again thinking about it. And I there's I don't know, there's some decent takes. Like, I'm down to convince myself that it's an interesting spot again, like very rare circumstances where both retail and high net worth crypto native capital is mostly sidelined. Retail sideline because of outperformance and AI stocks, high net worth crypto sideline because of four-year cycle timing, waiting for Q4. A lot of capital will chase quickly if coins rip here. I agree with this, I very much agree with this that a lot of capital will chase really quickly if coins start going up. The problem is what is it gonna take for coins to go up? It's specifically Bitcoin. So, I mean, man, you saw Cash Cat to me was a significant signal where people are like, Whoa, they're ready to fucking bid 200 mil in absolutely no time. People are ready to bid again. But what would it take to sustain that across the whole eco, across Solana, across ETH, even across some of these bigger alts, VPV, things like this? Unclear. But I I don't hate the narrative. Bought some ETH here after promising myself last summer I never do it again. Please, god forgive me, please Vitalik send at much higher CPB. I think base 16Z was also long ETH, or is maybe actively long ETH on Robinhood, pairing it with the liquidity on Robinhood chain, and then there's the opposite side, I suppose, which is we had a spot where betting on further downside for majors is retarded, but betting on an imminent uptrend is also retarded. So, at best, MMs will pay some crypto cable to puppet up alts on the side of some skill participants. Well, bad word, the less skilled on perps. And so Robinhood is basically like fuck no, and everybody else saying fuck yes. And so I don't know, I find myself feeling like it's an interesting spot. I think Jazz made a tweet as well. Let me see. I bought spot spot ETH again. Everyone's buying spot ETH. Lord forgive me. Trying time to go back to the old me. And then here was his take on the Robinhood chain I liked, which is Bates had a chance to outcompete Soul for meme coin liquidity by weaponizing Coinbase listings, but they dropped the ball. People are now speculating Robota could do the same. Usually the issue is sex leadership wants to protect the user's liquidity, while the on-chain eco wants the listing for EL. But for the first one, I think everyone is aligned in creating a new success story. Then TP on two uh thirds to free will remain one third here for a good time, not a long time. And so, chat, have you bought any crypto recently? I am basically all cash and some perp Solana, which is insane for me. I'm never perp Solana, but I'm also ready to capitulate, but it feels like there's a chance above. Um, do you think Robin Hood chain success is bearish for Robinhood Chain is bearish for hyper liquid? No, I think it's really hard to build a quality trading product. I think it is really difficult to build a very quality trading product that traders like, and then once you have the moat of traders, I think it's really difficult to convince them to switch. And so, as it currently stands, I think hyperliquid has such a moat over liquidity and the network effects of people trading tokenized stocks and trading perps that as it currently stands, they're just winning. And I don't think Robin Hood throws a wrench in that at all. Now they could think we could get to a point where it is, but my general stance on perps is that assuming they become legal in the US, the whole class is just gonna 10x. Everything is gonna 10x as it relates to perps. And so I don't think it's really like Robin Hood versus lighter versus hyper liquid. I think it's like perps as a percentage of options volume. Probably does, you know, if it's like 1% right now, it probably does a 10x. And everybody prints. This is kind of what I think is gonna happen. I see you. I'm live every morning, 8 30 a.m., 8 30 a.m. EST. Every morning, 8 30 a.m. ST. It's gonna be a big week. Lock the fuck in, drop the fuck in. I love the morning streams. I love you. I'm out, peace.