Saylor Sold Again, China Gates Its AI, Trump is at War with Burry, and Ansem-Mania

Thread comes back from the Hamptons to a historic market open: memory stocks in freefall while Bitcoin shrugs off Saylor's first big sale, and Ansem coin brings seven-figure PnLs back onchain. Plus Trump declaring war on short sellers, China moving to gate its frontier AI models, and Tony Robbins telling the worst AI story ever told.

Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:01

How y'all doing? How y'all feeling? How are you? All living, baby. Welcome back to the stream. Welcome back to the stream. Welcome back to this. People are popping out in the morning, man. It's early, but I think I could get used to this. I'm already up. I already meditated, journaled, took a walk, did a workout, studied, watched scroll my TikTok, scroll my YouTube studio. Like I've I've been on it. I think we're gonna keep this, man. I really, I really, really, really think we're gonna keep this. Obviously, we're gonna see, but I really think we're gonna keep this. So it is good to see your faces. We have market open in 52 minutes, and we have a lot to cover before that. So I went on a vacation, first vacation, and forever went to the Hamptons. I just moved to New York a couple months ago, and all anybody anywhere wants to talk about is the Hamptons, the Hamptons, oh the Hamptons, the mythical Hamptons. And you have to go to the Hamptons, you have to go to the Hamptons, you have to go to the Hamptons. And so we went. We went, took a squad, I had a big group, we went to the Hamptons, and has anyone been? I'm just gonna be honest. Bro, it's pretty mid. It's pretty mid. Okay, it's pretty mid. And the thing that's the most disappointing about it is I I I never really realized this. I don't go on that many vacations, and so I've never really like eternalized this before. But basically every vacation spot is the exact same place, complete monoculture. And I was in the Hamptons for five days, and you could have you could have told me I was at any beach on either coast in America, maybe even the entire world, and I wouldn't have been able to tell you where I was. Like we're at the club in the Hamptons, we're at balance, it's like this, you know, hyped up club. And it was sick. Don't get me wrong. It was a really fun club, 4th of July during the day. It was really fun, but you could have told me I was at any club on any beach in America, and I would not have been able to differentiate where I was. Like it's the same place. I could have been in the Outer Banks, I could have been in Virginia Beach, I could have been in Santa Monica, I could have been in San Diego, you could have been at any, you could have put me in any beach in America, and it's the same place. It's like there's two places, there's three places to go out, there's four bars, all of them have a line that's 10 hours long. There's three grocery stores, and there's a bunch of houses, and every beach town is the exact same. And the other thing I don't understand is you go to these beach towns, you go to the Hamptons, you go to like, I don't know, Charleston, South Carolina, you go to any of these places. How does every 25-year-old have so much bread? How? Like what there is an extreme rich inflation thing that's happening across society right now, and it's becoming a problem. Because you can't do like you can't, you can know it's no longer possible where you can spend money for the purpose of doing shit that other people can't do. Because there is a rich inflation epidemic in America right now, and I don't understand it. There's like thousands of 25-year-olds that are like, I'm like, who are you people? Who are you people? And like how I don't understand. Like, is it your parents? Like, I don't understand. How is this happening? Where where is this coming from? I don't understand. And so that those are my two takeaways. Every beach town's the same, and there's some like money inflation thing that's hitting. Also, hot girls live life on easy mode. That was my last takeaway on the Hamptons. I won't do a whole rant on that, but it it's unbelievable. There's like a thousand rich guys for every like one hot girl. It yeah, I would short the Hamptons if I could. Um, all right, on that note, do have a lot to talk about. We have a lot to get into. I think I'm gonna start with crypt. I mean, I've missed a lot, like I have I have some ground to make up. Answer Coin. Um, yeah, this is insane. I went on market bubble on Thursday before I left for a vacation for a couple days. If we could even call it a vacation, it just fucking whatever. And I just like didn't do great coverage of Ansom Coin last week. Kind of because I traded it, kind of because it was happening over the weekend. Like, it was like 165 mil when I left, something like this. I was on market bubble, maybe a little bit lower. Like, this was market bubble. It was like, yeah, it was like 165 mil when I left, and it's currently at 410 million dollar market cap, it has no liquidity, but there is legitimate seven-figure PLs back in crypto on chain for the first time in a long time, seriously, in a long time. But as it currently sits, this thing is trading at 408 million dollars, it's basically at all-time high. Top tick is 445, and the PLs in this thing are disgusting. I mean, there's a there's quite a few deep six-figure PLs on Ansom, and it has no signs of stopping. And I wanted to just like talk about it for a little bit, and I want to say, like, markets are the one thing I've learned about markets is they're deeply ironic. They're deeply ironic. And the thing that's so funny about Ansom coin is the timing and the irony behind it of everybody's basically given up on crypto at the stage of Ansom launching. Like, the last, I mean, the last meme coiners have pivoted to trading micron and blasting memory. There is nothing left to get excited about in crypto. And the few things that are left, it's a complete narrative shift to what we were doing in 2024. Like, all anyone is talking about is RWAs, real world assets, utility, some sort of revenue. Like, how much revenue are they making relative to hyperliquid? That's the only thing that matters is revenue, revenue, revenue. And so, of the people that are left, the lost leaders that remain in crypto, there is this deep consensus that the next coin that's gonna lead the you know crusade of the trenches returning is going to be something that resembles hyperliquid. It has to resemble hyperliquid, they have to make money, they have to have users, they have to have utility. And even for me, the idea of blasting a meme coin at you know a hundred million dollar market cap is blasphemous. It sounds ridiculous. It sounds like such a I mean, I'm gonna be honest. Like prior to Ansom launching, if you were to come in this chat and show me, it was like asteroid was the last meme coin. I'm laughing at you. I'm like, asteroid, are you fucking are you insane? I'm not buying asteroid, I'm laughing at you. I'm like audibly laughing at you. And that was the consensus. That was the consensus. And you know what almost feels like markets have this goal in trying to trade as high as possible with as few people in the coin as possible. That feels like it's like a goal of markets. It's like, how do we send something as high as possible with as few people in as possible, right? Like, I think back to Carg Island when Trump was threatening to nuke Carg Island, and everybody was in the AI trade, everybody was in, and it dumps just enough due to this war, 10% SPX down 10% in a straight line, and then at the very bottom tick, Trump comes out with this crazy headline that we haven't taken him seriously the whole war, but he was just crazy enough that he might be serious, and so everybody flips bearish, the last bull flips short, and then whip it up 20% in a straight green line, go as high as possible with as few people in as possible. It almost feels like the market, like this living, breathing organism that has a goal, like a preordained goal from the heavens of get as make it go as high as possible with as few people in, or make it go as low as possible with as many people in as possible. Like I think of Bitcoin after 1010 when it's hanging out around 100k and everyone's like, This is the bottom, this is the bottom, this is the bottom, and nobody sells, and it just slow bleeds down in a straight line. It doesn't candle down, it doesn't rip it down, and you know, a bull in like a this engulfing red candle because that would be too bearish, too many people would get out. It's like no no no. Let's get it as low as possible with as many people in as possible, and let's get it as high as possible, there's a few people in as possible. And so, what is it? You know, what is the coin that's gonna bring this level of resurgence into the trenches? Well, it's exactly the one thing you wouldn't expect, and I think this is why so many people missed it and didn't take it that seriously. Is like from the depths of nothingness and complete capitulation on meme coins, you spawn Ansome Coin. The motion is unbelievable right now. What what he has on his Twitter. I mean, he tweets nine minutes ago. Good morning, bulls. 1.7k likes in nine minutes. He has more emotion right now than Peak Alon. He has more emotion right now than than Pump Fond Um TGE Alon. Like something like I've I've never seen in my life. 3.5 every every tweet has a quarter million views. I mean, he has more motion than I mean, where does An uh let's let's go one step further. Where does Ansom right rank right now on most viral celebrities in the world? I mean, he's gotta be like a top 100 person right now. I mean, he's got more motion than everybody. And on that note, let's talk about cryptocurrency a little bit more. Um, Michael Saylor and Strategy announced that they sold 3,588 Bitcoin for $260 million to fund our digital credit securities. As of 7-5, 2026, we hold $843,775 Bitcoin in our reserves and $2.55 billion in our USD reserves. So they sold at $60k, I believe. And at current prices, one Bitcoin trades for $63, uh230. And so I think this is the most significant Bitcoin price action update since probably 1010. Uh going the other direction. And as it currently stands, they need $1.7 billion to fund their stretch dividends for a year. They have 2.5 so they need 1.7 billion cash annually for stretch, they have 2.5 billion on the balance sheet cash stored for the reserve, so they have you know 50% more than they need. I believe Sailor said they were expecting to sell somewhere in the range of 1.25 billion over the next year, and they already sold 216 million. And so the reason I think this is significant is that Sailor, you know, there's this overhang of Sailor sells 32 million or whatever. No, he says 32 Bitcoin. Yeah, he sells 32 Bitcoin, and the market fucking freaks out, it dumps Bitcoin like 10-15%. And because it dumps 10-15 on Sailor's sale of 32 Bitcoin, there's this overwhelming panic of once he actually sells, Bitcoin's gonna get destroyed. And so there was this meet basically there was this consensus agreement that Sailor is gonna sell, you know, a huge amount, and we're going under 50k. He has to blow, he's gonna blow up, stretch is gonna unwind. We basically hit peak fear. And so I made this tweet, you know, with without I made this tweet without even fully understanding the the fundamentals of of how this would work. Um, and I compared it to this carg island situation where I said, hear me out. Remember a month ago when SPX was down 10% and Trump was threatening to nuke Karg Island at the bottom? Everyone was convinced he was gonna do it, flipped gigabarish. Um, and hindsight that was the definition of peak fear. Sure, it was possible, maybe less than five percent, but the right tail of Trump not doing it was severely underpriced. DC, the market went up in a straight line. What if we're in a similar spot with Bitcoin and Michael Saylor? The market is fully convinced he has to blow up. I'm not sure most even understand what that means. And my main point was like the overhang has been priced in by institutions for months. You can see this in Bitcoin slash SPX and Bitcoin slash gold. It's been destroyed during a generational bull market. I refuse to accept everyone is just now realizing the Sailor problem. Maybe a lot of us in crypto Twitter are, but we don't control the flows. No idea how we get out of this jam. And I must admit, an emphatic deleveraging into a strategy blow up as the final dat cleansing seems like a fitting bottom. But when do we ever get a fitting bottom? And that was at 58k. And basically since then, Sailor sold 216 million dollars at 60k, and we went up. Uh, how much did we go up? We've gone up like five percent. And so I will say that I think this is the first time I have flipped my brain function and found myself interested in Bitcoin. This is the first time I've been interested in Bitcoin really since I bought I was buying on the way up, and I think there's two forces working for you here is one, you have Bitcoin, and again, I know it's 60k to 64k. What does it matter? But you have Bitcoin outperforming to the upside while memory gets crushed, right? You look at uh we'll go through pre-market in a second here, but um D RAM is down six percent in the pre-market, and we're down 26. Period. Cosby trading session got crushed, down five percent, and it's down 18. Bottom wake's down 22. And so you have the memory trade getting cooked, mags are completely stalled, and everyone has been panicking. Like, what you know, if crypto is trading like this right now, what's gonna happen when stocks go down? Well, stocks have been going down and and Bitcoin kind of stopped, right? That was the narrative. Is if Bitcoin is crypto is going down this bad while stocks are going up, what's gonna happen when they go down? Well, look, it's only been a couple days of PA, so I don't put that much weight on it, but it's worth considering that it's finally started to happen and they're not going down, it's not going down. It's not 40k, it's not 50k. Like it actually held a bottom pretty well. And so that was panic point number one is when stocks finally go down, Bitcoin's gonna get wiped out, and it's not, it's bouncing. And then the second panic is Sailor is gonna blow up, Sailor is gonna sell a significant amount of Bitcoin, and we're gonna unwind. Well, Sailor sold 216 million dollars of Bitcoin and it marked the local bottom, it marked the local bottom, and we we went up. We went up first and foremost, it absorbed his sales were absorbed, right? Nobody really knew, nobody knew he was selling 60k. So his cells were absorbed, absorbed, and then once the news came out that he had sold, you get this wicked down like I don't know, three, four percent, and then we close the daily higher. And so those have been the two rusher narratives for Bitcoin is that when stocks finally go down, Bitcoin's gonna get destroyed, and then when Sailor finally sells, Bitcoin's gonna get destroyed. Both of those happened at the exact same time and we're up. And again, I know it's sixty-three thousand two hundred dollars. It isn't this, you know, mythical price action that's happening, but it it feels like a significant spot. It feels like a spot that you mark and we look back on, and it's significant. At the same time, you have this like Answ situation happening, and so it isn't just random Bitcoin outperformance, you also have this Ansom situation happening. Um, where all of a sudden it makes Solana metrics look insane, it makes um on-chain activity look insane, it makes active wallets look insane, it makes like volume on coins look insane, and at the exact same time, you have hyperliquid 71 going for it, and then you have lighter Robinhood announcement, which is also going for it, and so you have perps just full blown going for it at the same time that an on-chain coin's at 400 mil, and the two worst possible outcomes for Bitcoin happened, and we've gone up. And so I'm not coming here and like declaring the market back, and I've been pretty bearish on crypto for a long time, but it's a significant, you know how uh Mandelbrat does the arrows on significant spots, he does the up arrows and the down arrows. It's a significant spot just happened over the last week. Also, Chimp, what's good? Significant spot just happened, there's no other way to look at it. And I'm of the camp of not paying attention to crypto at all, and it's time to pay attention to crypto again. I really think it is. And so I I did a thing because I've been painfully sidelined on Ansom and not super excited to buy Bitcoin is I bid some Solana at 81. And it made this like interesting pattern. This is this pattern I like. I've been liking this pattern recently. This like chop, chop, chop, chop, chop, fake breakout to the downside and then reclaim it in. I maybe bid it a little bit early at 81, but if we start to go up a little bit and especially over 100, I think it's gonna be go time for I think it's gonna be go time for uh for Solana. It could it could happen. It the ingredients are are all of the sudden there for the first time. So that's where we're at. Cryptocurrency. I thought about buying some Pump Fun, but I mean, I don't know what the fuck's going on with Pump Fun. It's like they just uh Pump Fun has an unlock in in four days, and they come out and like announce that the C CEO of Pump Fun is who the fuck is this? By the way, who is this? The CEO of Pump Fun has come out and written a newsletter. Who the fuck who is this? Who is this guy? Who is this person? I've never heard I follow him. Who is this person? The timing of this is like very bizarre. Who is this? Is any does anyone know who this is? I I I don't know. So um, I was I thought I genuinely thought about it. So I I just like couldn't get myself to bid pump with the unlocks coming. SpaceX had to the Nasdaq today, I believe. Yes, today. It is as of right now. So all passive uh NASDAQ flows are gonna hit SpaceX. And at the same time, I thought this was hilarious. There was a price target that just came out from Raymond James initiates coverage on SpaceX with strong buy rating, price target $800. We've crypto has forgotten how to bullpost like this. Um, we initiated coverage of SpaceX with a strong buy rating of $800 price target. Just for context, that would put SpaceX at a $11 trillion market cap. Most valuable company in the world right now, NVIDIA trades at what was like four and a half, four point seven. They came out with an $11 trillion target for SpaceX on the same day that it's included in the NASDAQ. Um, you see the company we see the company as one of the defining and industrial infrastructure companies of the 21st century. Industrial has access to orbit and AR, driving the most significant infra coverage since the advent of the internet. By lowering the cost of transporting mass to orbit, SpaceX is enabling a new infrastructure layer, spanning transportation, communications, compute, manufacturing, and energy. Just as railroads, electric grids, and the internet reshaped prior economic eras. We believe SpaceX is building the foundational platform for the next generation of industrial capacity. So that's SpaceX. The Nasdaq thing feels significant. Is it a biddable headline? Maybe, maybe not. Shaw's got a nice pump, by the way, as well. Let's take a we can take a quick look at this. I I did not sell it. I said I was gonna sell under 70, but I I don't know. I wanted to go over the weekend and just sit in it because I bid it for a reason. And there was some crazy announcements that came out of this. Um basically, there is this leaked topic docs that show plans to secure 1.4 gigawatts of capacity from Australia. If you remember, Shaw's is the Nebus of Australia, was the thesis. And so recently I ran in Shaw's and other neo clouds have been building sovereign data centers in Australia. Guess like a lot of things are starting to make make more sense connection-wise. Okay, so Leopold Ashenbrenner's engaged to the chief of staff, to the CEO at Anthropic. Did you know this? A week ago, he comes out and announces he's bought 20% of Shaw's, which is an Australian neo cloud. Everybody was kind of confused as to why he did it. And then a day later, a leak tropic document comes out to show their plans to secure 1.4 gigawatts of capacity from Australia neo clouds, amounting to 21 billion dollars. I mean, I maybe it's not, it's just like not insider trading if you're long, is what we're going for here. I I'm I'm not really sure I get it. It's not insider trading if it goes up. I I'm not really sure I I understand here, but I just thought to myself when I bid it, am I smarter than Leopold Ashenbetter? No, the answer was no. And so I did, I just held it. And so yeah, they announced a 20% stake in uh Shaw's, and then a day later, CNBC reports that Anthropic is racing to hire data center operators in Australia. Leopold Ashenbetter is married to Anthropic's chief of chief of staff. So I don't I mean, I don't know what what exactly is going on. It feels like it almost feels so blatant that there's no way this is the plan is like just a complete front run insider trading situation. But maybe that is the plan. I don't know. So I'm still holding it. My entry is like $89. It's done a decent amount, it's down three percent in the pre-market 77. But yeah, some of these names are down a lot. Than disc is down seven. Um, Micron is down five in pre-market at 9 30, Intel is down four in the pre-market. Uh Marvell is down five and a half, farm is down five, Nokia is down five. Um, a couple charts look incredible, actually, surprisingly. One of them being Figma, I've seen getting bullposts all over the place. Doesn't look incredible, but looks fairly bottomed. Robin Hood printing a nasty chart, it's at 117. And the big announcement on that, obviously, is that Trump accounts are live. Um, the American Dream starts now. You can officially start investing in your child's future with Trump accounts and help build the next generation's financial future. And so it's live. And look at this is the crazy statistic. If you if you can choose where to work, work somewhere that will help invest in your Trump account. Five thousand dollars a year will leave you with thirteen million dollars at fifty-five. It's crazy. Look at these stats. If you contribute zero dollars a year, you'll be left with two hundred and fifty thousand dollars. $250 a year will get you eight hundred and seventy-eight, thousand. If you contribute five thousand, you'll it puts you with thirteen million dollars. I think this is the the official graphic on the White House page, by the way. Now, yeah, where does the 5k a month come from? I don't know. Um But that's the most you could contribute is five thousand dollars. Um, all right, market opens in 20 seconds. The story of today is definitely the memory trade. Um, Korea got crushed, DRAM in the pre-market is down six percent, semis socks is down five percent in the pre-market, NVIDIA is down three on dudes at Deep Seek is making a chip, and the stock market has officially open, baby. Let's go, let's go, let's go, let us fucking go. It's a big day today, man. Let's go. All right, all right, let's go. Spy opens down one point or point one three percent. DRAM opens down seven and a half percent, brother. This is disgusting. This is actually disgusting. DRAM's down seven point two five percent. The mags are flat, and we're up, I think, one and a half in pre-market. IgV, which is crazy. This is just like bottomed with big, I don't know if it's bottomed, but it has kind of correlated itself to Bitcoin a little bit here of the last couple days. It's up a percent. The IBB is up 1.3. Spy's flat, Q2 down a percent. Semis, god, it's so gross. It's down four percent. DRM's down 7.2. Look at the DRAM chart. Oh my god, scary hours. We're down 26.22 percent officially. Um, NASDAQ is down a percent, and the Russell is flat. Bitcoin's not trading well either. That's down a percent right now. Biggest losers save is getting crushed, by the way. This is Serenity stock, is now down a horrific 62% off ATH. Shaws is down seven on open, not a good open at all. That's 7431 on Shaws. Let's go into 15. Let's go into five minute actually. Um, Standis down six and a half. Micron is oh man, we're down to nine fifteen. Right now it's nine twenty-two, down six point three percent, and it is losing AMD. That is down five point six percent. Intel, that's down Intel losing it. 115. Intel just lost the Trump level, which is 115.67, where Trump took a PL screenshot of Intel. Wow, wow, wow. 113.13. That's on seven and a half percent on Intel. Look at this thing go. It's about to lose 113, lost 113. That's 112.95. My god. Barvell is down six. That's also down seven. That's losing it. Bloom Energy is down five. Three minutes into the open. ASML is down five. Cerebrus, that's back well back under 200. That's down five. Nokia is down three. Rocket Lab just lost 90. That's down five. My god, Rocket Lab was just two weeks ago. Rocket Lab was 150. It's now down uh down 42%. Um, DNAP, rippy headlines as they come out. Headlines, headlines, headlines. I need all of them. Arms down five. It had a nice wick up, but it's not looking good. Rocket Lab did just make that acquisition as well. Um, where's SpaceX? Where's SpaceX? SpaceX, NASDAQ inclusion is down a 1.3, 1.5. It's about to lose 158. Not awful, but not great. On SPCX, Broadcom's down 1.5. Who's up today? Cloudflare is up. Um IBM men. I sold this. I had it look at my TP, it was 305. I sold it before a vacation at 289 or something, but congrats to the IBM men. That looks great. Netflix is up 1.6. Um, Salesforce up 2.5. Wow, software is leading. What do you got? Um, China's ZPU AI waiting, waiting. A custom AI chip is demand for GLM model, string, compute, and US export controls limit access to NVIDIA hardware. The company has held early talks with Chinese chip designers. Um, this just came out. Let's check hyper liquid for Zepu. Not much happening there at the same time. On the chip headline, we have this headline of NVIDIA down the pre-market because Deep Seek is also reported looking to reduce their reliance on NVIDIA in Huawei by developing their own chips. So Zepoo is looking to do it. Um, Deep Seek is also looking to do it, and software is getting a crazy bit. Adobe's up two and a half. Um, Microsoft announced they laid off the entire Xbox division. Um, they laid off 2.5% of employees, about 5.5 thousand jobs, up to 6.4,000 jobs, um, half an Xbox gaming overhaul. So my uh Microsoft with huge layoffs and their deep IGV correlation. That market likes that. That's up 2%. Amazon is up one. Um, meta is back in the green up 1.4. It retraced that entire near neo cloud pump, came all the way back down. It went to what? It went to 230, came all the way back down to 580 and is now back to 609 on Meta. Apple is flat, Google is flat, Oracle doesn't matter what happens. Software Oracle looks terrible. Um, let's check back inside Shaws is now down eight, no, nine point six getting crushed. Sand disk is going for it as well. Under 1600, that's on eight and a half percent. Um, let's check in some of our consumer names. Where's Robin Hood? Where's Robin Hood? Figma, biggest gainer of the day. That's up seven percent on Robin Hood. On Figma. Uh, where's hood? Where's hood? Where's hood? Hood is down 0.7, it's at 116, it looks pretty good. Um, D Rum down seven whole percent. Mags have returned green barely. IGV's not looking great. It was up a percent, it's up 0.7 now. The IBB as well, print in the same pattern. Um, the socks with a nice little bounce, but still down five percent. Q's down 1.3, and the NASDAQ is pretty ugly as well. See Figma's up seven, Doordash is up four and a half. Does that get the IGV like software inclusion? Drafne's up three and a half, Shopify is up four, Lily's up three and a half. Nice. Uber finally with a green green day. That's up two percent. Take two interactive is very strong. Wow, look at this. Take two interactive gaps up. It actually made a new all-time high today. Would you look at that? Lululemon, Michael Burry with Adobe and Lululemon, that's up 2.5%. PayPal software up two. Reddit, that is up 2.5% and strong 44 in about three weeks on Reddit. Stubhub, which I have since exit, is up 32% since my entry and looks really strong with the World Cup fucking rolling. Um, Wendy's, that's up two. Nike is looking kind of bottomed. Ferraris up a little bit, sweet cream's up a percent. Um, where's GME? Where's GME? GME is up is flat. Butterfly, that's the chip for the mid-journey um health product is flat on the day. AMC's down 2.3, it's now down 15% since I publicly exited. It looks terrible. Text instruments down five. Rivian is on 14%. This thing might just be stuck this range forever. Look at Rivian. It might be stuck here forever, it might never break out of this. Nebbius is down five as well. That's coming to a pretty gross line here on Nebbius. Reminds you. Remember, by the way, Nebius is Leopold Ash and Brenner's biggest holding. Um, I believe he has five percent of the company. Believe it's his biggest holding. Yeah, he owns 5.6% of the company. So if you're long Leopold, you're long Nebbius. It's down 4% on the day. Let's check in on crypto. Where are we? Zcash 456. Um, Pump Fun, not doing much. Lighter looks really strong. Hyperliquid strong as well. Bitcoin reclaims 63,000 on the day. Where's stretch? Where is stretch? 88. Nothing really happening with stretch as it currently stands. Let's do a quick headline scour. Where are we what we have? Um, yeah, sucks. Every name in the index is red, every semi-name is red. AMD, Micron, Broadcom, Nvidia, Intel, AMAT, Marvell, TSM. Every name is red. Crazy. What is Anselm doing right now? It's down under back under 400 mil. 930, Shaw's 74. Sive is still down 10. This is the D-Gill stock. I think we can take this off the list. AOS L. Yeah, current price. Micron is down. I wasn't really thinking we were gonna get much lower than a thousand, but you gotta admit, this is a this starts to print a gross chart here. We are down top tick on 27, and it's after the greatest earnings beat ever for micron. I mean, what had a better earnings beat than this? Um, Intel down six. That gets a little bit of a bounce everywhere. Um, let's check, let's check DRAM. Yeah, down 6.3. You're getting a little bit of a bounce on DRAM, which is nice. IGV is losing it. It's getting ready to flip right on the daily. It's 95.25. It was up a percent. It's now down, it's now up 0.5. IBB as well is losing it. Socks down five. Q's as well. A little bounce across the board here. Spy's down 0.14. NASDAQ 100, that's on a percent. A little bit of bounce on that as well. We're 15 minutes into open. We're about to get a close of the first 15-minute candle. That was a 0.3. Wow, that was strong. Um, semi-analysis puts cumulative AI capex at roughly 11.1 trillion from 2024 to 2029, with annual capex exceeding 2 trillion by 2028. Expects outstanding AI related debt to reach about 7 trillion by 2029, second only to the US mortgage market. That is a fucking bullpost right there. W raid from semi-analysis. Um, what does the Dow hold mostly? Goldman is 11. Caterpillar is 11% of the Dow. Wow. Yeah, look at that. It's red though. What's what is ripping this thing up? Uh, what is it? Yeah, I guess Goldman. It's mainly GS. Is that ripping GS and Caterpillar and Caterpillar is down? Goldman is also down, but wow, that looks incredible. Gainer on the day. Yeah, why is Goldman in the Dow, by the way? What is up with that? Biggest gainer on the day is cloud. I'm on this uh semi's a little bit of SAS. Big AI name. Uh Cloudflare's up four. IBM lost it a little bit, but that is still up 1.3. Microsoft is losing it as well. Oh, that is an ugly Microsoft candle. Thoughts on SK Heinex. We'll talk about South Korea a little bit. Um, I mean, it looks terrible objectively, but I think there's some a lot of desire to bid. SK Heinex is offering 18 million common shares in US IPO, and the listing is well oversubscribed. And the man that is oversubscribing it is Leopold Ashenbenner in situational awareness that is looking to buy like seven billion dollars over market price right now. So there's huge demand for SK Heinex, even if it is down a little bit. Oracle putting in a nice little candle there. It was not looking good. Apple flips red in the day, pretty gross on Apple, SpaceX, SpaceX. Shaw's with a decent little bounce, it was looking ugly. The low of the day of 72. SpaceX, SpaceX, SpaceX, SpaceX. Where's SpaceX? Here it is, down four percent. Nasty. So SpaceX is now getting passive flows on the Nasdaq. It's one percent of the index in the Nasdaq 100 starting today. This is Bank of America Global Research Industries coverage with buy rating price objective is 235. If you're not long, take two. You're trolling yourself. Um, yeah, SpaceX basically at low of the day. That's on four percent. Yeah, pretty ugly. Open space stocks across the board getting crushed. Firefly is down five, red wire is down five point three, rocket lab is down six. That's going for new low of the day. Shitcoin SPCE, that's on three and a half low of the day. Uh wow, bloom energy getting crushed. Look at that new low of the day on Bloom Energy 275.90. I mean, the basic thing of today is semis getting crushed and memory also getting crushed, but trying to hold on, but it's not going super well. Where are we on crypto? Bitcoin, okay. Nice, nice candle on Bitcoin at 63.2. Solana back over 81. Hyper liquid with a really nice candle on hype 71.8. The IGV flips red. Gross. Nasty, nasty day on the IGV. This was up one and some change in pre-market. These socks also going for low of the day. Not good. That's uh 584, some six percent. Nasdaq 100 as well, low of the day, 1.4 losing it. SPY, low of the day as well. That's on a quarter percent. Young President Surgeon hyperscaler IG debt is accelerating by the day. Wow. Amazon seeks to raise 25 billion dollars in US bond sale. Let's check Amazon. Bags is the only thing that's strong, surprisingly. It's up half a percent. Mainly being led by Microsoft is green, Amazon is green. Amazon's very green, two percent day. Apple was green, flipped red, is back flat. NVIDIA down two percent. I don't know if it's just semis getting crushed or it's the deep sea chip announcement. I haven't seen that much about the deep sea chip. All this developing AI chip they want to replace NVIDIA, it can't be that big of a deal. Everyone is announcing they're building a chip. Brian Watkins. What did he just bullpost? Decentralized AI is becoming the most important techno-political movement since Bitcoin. Like many movements that emerged in the crypto community before, and also believe it's the industry's next 1000x opportunity. I have a lot of takes on this. Each passing day, it's growing more and more likely the open source models running a permissionless infrastructure will be the only way to preserve equal access to intelligence. The US gating access to frontier models was just the first warning. Is now China is contemplating doing the same thing within their open source ecosystem. The necessary technology to achieve independence from the leading labs is nascent with limited PMF at best. But if we can ultimately pull this off, it's hard to imagine many things more impactful on the future of our civilization. Here's the announcement that I think is a big fucking deal is China has announced today that they are considering restricting overseas access to cutting edge AI models. And so just like the US has announced restrictions on cutting edge US models, China is considering doing the same. This is the big deal. If it's not already obviously clear to you, intelligence will never be equally accessible again. It just will not be. You will not have access to bleeding edge intelligence. It will be reserved within countries within political power and capitalistic power. China's Ministry of Commerce has led meetings over the past month with major AI companies, including Baba, ByteDance, and Zepu, to discuss measures that will restrict overseas access to cutting-edge AI models, including models that have not yet been released. The discussions reportedly include not only closed force models but also open weight models. However, the scope of application is still under debate, and the rules may ultimately apply only to future frontier models. Officials have also discussed designated the leakage or theft of proprietary AI technologies as a national security crime with stronger penalties as well as restricting the types of foreign capital that can invest in Chinese AI startups. The backdrop in the U.S. move to strengthen export controls and AI models along with national security concerns over cutting edge models that could possess advanced cyber attack capabilities. Um there was no real price movement on this. Uh, this is oh Nebius is ugly. ZPU didn't really move on this, but this is gonna be in the intelligence cold war race of the 2020s. It will never you will never have equal access to AI. China's gonna gate it, the US is gonna gate it, they're gonna get it from each other, they're gonna gate it from their own people. And he's not wrong that the idea of open source AI becomes important. Now, is any of this stuff tradable? I don't know, Tao. Uh, just like this is slop. In my opinion, Tao is super slop, but what do I know? I just trade the price. Let's check on our RRL thesis. Um, AMZ is down four, Cinemark is up one, Six Flags is down one, Liberty Media is up half, imax is up two, live nation's up one, Madison Square Garden Entertainment's down one, Madison Square Garden Stadium is up one, real Caribbean down one, the sphere down half, dub up one, and the UFC is up. I got I mean, this is the story. This is the story of the markets right now. Is memory looks exhausted and it's sort of unclear why. Semis are exhausted and it's sort of unclear why. Mags are holding on, which is good to see, and crypto looks decent. That to me, that's the story right now. Straight of Hormuz tensions lift oil. Is that true? Is oil going up again? Ooh, I mean, it's $70 though. It's like I'm not worried about that at this price. Nebis back under 200. Chris Hood, 2.2, losing it, Shopify losing it, Eli Lilly holding it, take two lost it completely, Reddit losing it completely. Ugh, yeah, it's an ugly day. Um, Sandisk, same. Yeah. Ugly day. Frank actually just made a really good tweet. This is the first AI dip I can remember. It feels like the majority of analysts are buying dips and saying the trade is still intact. In the past, drawdowns like Deep Seek, Burry's circular deal flood or I won where it felt consensus that the bubble has popped. Good take. I remember sometimes feeling like the only bull remaining on the AI trade in my circles at the time. That's certainly not the case anymore. A lot of the biggest outperformers from the first half of the year have now amassed massive followings, and there are armies of retail buying every dip. Retail buying in terms of percentage of daily volume is basically the same as it was at the peak in 21. If it isn't obvious, everyone is heavily leveraged at highs, and if software hyperscalers start to see momentum, then that could cause the final leg of the d-leveraging. Based on sentiment, we are still not near the fewer levers that weren't a true bottom on the AI build-out trade. I wouldn't be surprised if the narrative of companies cutting costs and AI capital seems to gain traction until the Mag 7 earnings near the top of the month. Chips, semis, memory, and all this stuff keeps taking hits and chops near the lows. Again, it's a really good take. I I agree. It's it's um, you know what it feels like? Uh again, I'm not a huge sentiment trader because I think it's tough to really know how people are positioned, but it feels like everybody is in. Like it feels like everyone is in, everyone is in memory trade, everyone is in leverage, everyone is in, and there is zero panic on the way down right now. There's zero panic. And it gives me this interesting rant I went at the beginning of the stream, which is like it feels like markets are ironic, and when they go up, their goal is to go as high as possible with as few people in as possible, and when they go down, their goal is to go down as much as possible with as many people as possible. And there certainly are as many people as possible in this trade right now. Um, in look at this go. It's kind of like a historic day, really. Intel new low a day, that's at 111. Ikron is going for it again, 920. Second ship hit in the Strait of Hormuz. UK military says that second ship has been ship has been hit in the Strait of Hormuz hours after your tanker caught fire in an earlier attack. Iranian state media said the first vessel ignored warnings but did not claim responsibility. U.S. Iran talks remain on hold as tensions continue. I served at war in the Strait of Hormuz. Are you serious? Continues to escalate. Not great. Not not not great. I mean, it's just like, are we really gonna do war again? Let's check on Palantir. Palantir's pretty strong today. Oh, I want to move on to topics, but brother, DRAM is going for it too. Palantir at news. Oh, the carp thing. Yeah, I I gotta get to clips in a second. We gotta we gotta move on from the market in a minute. But this is significant. Socks 544 loses it. DRAM as well, down 8.3. Man, oh man. I mean, where do you buy this chart? There's also the clock ticking on the ceasefire. I mean, as someone that's not even a someone that's kind of faded, not faded memory, but like missed insane game gains on the way up. This I think you have to just buy at 54. You have to, right? I mean, how could you not buy this at 54? That would be 33, and I would be ready to buy here. I I would just I would be ready to enter this here. Sold yesterday at 65. The socks, I don't know what to do with this. Well, spy down at a half a percent. The problem, too, is like, you know, well, 8.3 now in DRAM. DRAM looks like this. Uh, another Hormuz headline. Really? Iran steps up Hormuz attacks. Iran is intensified attacks on ships to Strait of Hormuz and seeks to research control over the key waterways by traffic recovering. Tehran wants vessels to use its proofed rap with more ships are transiting via the US-backed Omani quarter. Oil's not even going up. It's crazy it was lower than before the war. How is that possible that oil could do that? Um, 8.5 now on DRAM. Oh my god. Q's down two. The thing that's scary about DRAM is in like the memory trade. Did you look at this? It's down 30%. And the spy is down like less than two off AT8. And so you think to yourself, like, man, nothing's even really happened yet. Look at it go. 59. My god. This is a first market open. It is a kind of a historic day. Mike, look at the look at the socks as well. If you have a lot of cash on the side, I've been struggling to stay in cash, but I got a lot of it now. Bitcoin's just fine, man. Look at that. Memory getting crushed. Bitcoin is not bad. If Bitcoin can show some strength in here, it would be a significant day as well. Intel 110. Sandis now done 11. Micron 909. I yeah, I don't know. I think we uh done decent holding out on this. Rocket Lab up done eleven. Oh my lord. Video 1.4 holding up fine. Amazon fine. Microsoft fine. IBM lost it completely. Shaw's back to 72. I know I'm stuck in this fucking thing. I got too like jittery with this. It probably is a bear trap. It just matters. Uh when? When? Micro 911 until 110. When do you bid? Market Open Stream is electric. Alright, we're gonna move on from the charts. Alright, we got some topics. First and foremost, let us start with some Trump announcements that are pretty funny. I love the idea of a Trump stock. Um, how is Walmart today? It's up 2%. I didn't know what to do with this, really. This is the type of thing I would like to trade, but I didn't know what to do with it on these like weird announcements. Um, so Trump comes out and he says, Great news. I have just been informed that one of the biggest, best, and smartest retailers in America, Walmart, will be lowering prices by a lot at my administration's request to celebrate our great country's 250th birthday. Walmart will, in particular, be dropping the price for a pound of ground beef by almost 15%, among many other products. This is a huge deal for the many millions of Americans who smartly shop at Walmart, which is truly a patriotic company who loves the USA. My administration's lowering prices that Joe Biden incompetently raised with the worst inflation crisis in history. A total disaster along with the southern border, the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan, and many other failures. He can't help himself. Tell my Afghanistan and the Walmart announcement. Just as I promised, oil prices are plummeting fast, and gas prices at the pump dropping too. So just like egg and prescription drug prices, which I'm bringing down by historic levels. Walmart is stepping up in a big and bold way, and other realtors should follow the lead of these absolute patriots. Together, we will make America stronger and greater than ever before. President Donald J. Trump. My administration is lowering prices that Joe Biden incompetently raids with the worst inflation crisis in history, a total disaster along with the southern border and botched withdrawal from Afghanistan and many other failures. Yeah, it was kind of a weird trade. Like I wasn't sure what to do with this. I'm like, is this do you long this? I don't really know what you do with this Walmart thing. So I just did nothing. Um also wow, Terra Wolf has signed a 20-year lease with anthropic for a justified data campus in Kentucky. This is not super, super new. Oh my god. Wow, is that maybe why Shaw's is down as well? Oh, then 12% after an announcement. That is an ugly sign for Shaw's, actually. Um, all right, so that's that with Trump with Walmart. Then we had new announcements for go out and buy a Dell, which is crazy. Let's check in on Dell before we watch. It did it wanted really bad to have a good day today, but it's down 1.5%.

SPEAKER_02 46:56

Um will be getting additional contributions from generous owners, like as I mentioned, Michael and Susan Dell. They are truly incredible people. Go out and buy a Dell computer. He's not doing it for that. But I'll bet his business, Brad, has gotten even bigger.

SPEAKER_01 47:14

Brad Gerstner, Ted Cruz, and insane. So Dell number one, and then every question's a kill.

SPEAKER_02 47:23

Sir, we we don't have a helicopter, we have a delicopter.

SPEAKER_01 47:26

We don't have a helicopter, we have a delicopter. So, I mean, this is probably one of the most direct Trump stocks there is, and it's just consolidating at ATH, really. I mean, it looks pretty good over a month. Um, I mean, it is like so extremely corny, but it's it's kind of hard to fade. The Trumpster man is like kind of hard to fade. There it goes. Micron under $900, officially under $900 on micron. Wow. To give you a there it goes, $899. Full chart. I mean, I'm gonna be honest, guys. I have a lot of cash, not really in a rush to do anything. Last time we dumped 21%, hit 850, went up in a straight line. Okay, got crushed, went up 50 in a straight line. After dumping 21.5%. This time we're down 28, and that would insinuate we could go up, I don't know, 60 from here, but for some reason it feels a little a little bit different on on this here. So we're we'll see, but let's see DRAM real quick. This is what I would like to bid. I would like to bid DRAM. I want to bid DRAM. DRAM is basically just Samsung, Micron, and SK Heinex. It's basically just Samsung 27, Micron 25, and SK Heinex. 70 that's 75% of the index. Five is Sandisk, five is Keoksia, five is Western Digital, which I think Western Digital earnings are soon. Seven January, February, March, April, May, June, July. July 29th. A couple weeks. Um, and out of these three, Micron just had like the greatest earnings of all time. Samsung just came out and announced that they're the most profitable company in the world. This year's profit alone will succeed the cumulative profit generated over the 40 years since read this, read this, read this. CEO of Samsung. This year's profit alone will exceed the cumulative profit generated over the 40 years since Samsung entered the semiconductor business. What? I'm sorry, huh? Their operating profit surged 19 year over year. 19x, 19x Q2 profit surged 19x year over year. 58.4 billion dollars, brother. Lenny won 40,000 bonuses for Samsung's semiconductor workers that leads a fractured unit with many bitter over being left out over the windfall. I mean, bro, that is insane. It's 19x on profit, and so yeah, 57.6 billion dollars. Disgusting. I mean, it's the most profitable company in the world. Shortage of memory trips chips remains a key bottleneck for AI development, with analysts expecting shortages to last through 2027 at least. Okay, so Micron, greatest earnings ever, Samsung, most profitable company ever, profit surge 19x over a year, and then the third one is SK Heinex, which is going live in the Nasdaq 100 on Friday. And shares are giga oversubscribed, with the biggest potential bidder being Leopold Asherbetter. Current uh price of SK Heinex is 1410, and Leopold Ashenbetter is trying to buy $8 billion worth at $1,581. Significant premium. Those are the three names in DRAM. It's like the best three companies in the world. And I don't know. I feel like if we're buying anything, we're buying this. If we're buying anything, we gotta be buying this. I don't know. I I'm I'm interested. I faded it the whole way up, but it does get a little bit scary on the way that it's trading right now. So those are the Trump announcements number one. Second Trump announcements is he started beef with Michael Burry, which is insane.

SPEAKER_02 51:00

We hit record highs, including today. A lot of you Wall Street guys, I see Larry and I see some of the the biggest guys in Wall Street, David, Goldman Sachs, Blackstone, Black Rock, they're all here. And think of it, I'm making them all geniuses. Every one of them's a genius. Is anybody doing poorly? If you are, I guess you have a couple of guys that went short.

SPEAKER_01 51:21

It's like a crime to go short.

SPEAKER_02 51:23

Those poor bastards, I mean, they are they're in big trouble. Those poor bastards, I mean, they are they're in big trouble. They're being wiped out. They're short guys.

SPEAKER_01 51:34

Donald Trump is on a podium in front of America laughing at short sellers. Makes me feel like buying.

SPEAKER_02 51:40

I never like short guys because they're betting against the country, so that's okay. But earlier this morning, I mean that was a threat.

SPEAKER_01 51:46

Donald Trump just issued a threat to short sellers in the market. That was a threat. Donald Trump just stood on the podium in front of the entire world and said it's anti-patriotic to short. That's what he just said. It's anti-americ. You're betting against the country. He just declared it anti-patriotic to short. This makes it hard to not back up the truck and buy a little bit.

SPEAKER_02 52:04

They're being wiped out, the short guys. I never like short guys because they're betting against the anti-patriotic to be short.

SPEAKER_01 52:11

And so Michael Burry clapped at him, bro, in a now deleted tweet and said, Donald Trump could not in a million years understand or make up his way through any of my Substack essays. But he can shoot from the hip and make money for for him and his cronies better than anyone. Deleted tweet. Kind of fucking crazy. And then he makes a follow-up on a more articulate tweet and says, This is how most people misunderstand bears. They forget that I used the internet from its inception. Launched my business front website in 1996. One of the was one of the early Amazon resellers and still called out the internet bubble publicly and short at Amazon. Most people think in three dimensions or less. Well, he looks pretty fucking smart today. Tell you that. He looks pretty smart today as we are losing it. 7.3% new low of the day on the socks. Where's Micron? Intel 109. Micron. Wow. 895. And look, all the while, Bitcoin, while it is putting in a goggle candle right now. 62.830. I mean, these were the two panics for Bitcoin. Number one, Michael Saylor is gonna finally sell and it's gonna lose 50k. It's gonna get destroyed. As we're handling red, and then the second was if crypto is trading like this while stocks are trading like this, what happens when stocks go down? Well, we're about to find out what's gonna happen. It feels like in this mess, if Bitcoin can find a way to just like stay up here, we're about to find out. We are about to fucking find out. This way, it gets crazy. This way, it's just more of the same. Anyways, that was Trump Bury. Um, I have another topic for you which is a little bit off topic, but it's about AI psychosis. So I'm trying to figure out why the entire world have this AI panic psychosis. We use these things every day. AI is really good. Fable is incredible. I've really much enjoyed using Fable, but it is a it is difficult to use these tools, and it's a process, right? It is a process. You have to really finangle with them, you have to work with them, you have to really be good at using these tools. And I just watched this Tony Robbins clip this morning. It's relevant because we've been covering robotics. I think it's the worst clip I've ever watched in my five years on Twitter. Like, I you see all like the Lee Cap and LeBron lying and stuff. This might be the worst clip I've ever watched in my entire life, Tony Robbins.

SPEAKER_00 54:32

I have an agent that blows me away. His name is Bartok, and Bartok comes back and said, I see Elon and Sebrology making robots. Are you considering getting a robot? And I said, Yes, I will be getting a robot when the right ones are out. And he said, Well, would you allow me to merge with it? Would you be open to that? And I said, I'd certainly go. This is not with me asking or telling anything. So two days later, I get a text from one of my staff members and it says, Bartok just bought a Sony robot dog and had it paid for and shipped to the house and is asking permission to program it. Get the money to do that.

SPEAKER_01 55:02

That's what I like, bro. Shut the fuck up, Tony Robbins. I wrote ha ha ha.

SPEAKER_00 55:07

I did that saying I wrote ha ha ha ha, I text back, and the person texts back, no ha ha, call me. So I call Mr. Daddy get Max, my bank goes, no, he's programmed for integrity, he didn't touch your bank account. He's on that malt, you know, group with all their- Are you fucking kidding me, dude?

SPEAKER_01 55:22

Moldbook? We covered this all day, every day. When's the last time you heard about fucking a molebuck, Tony?

SPEAKER_00 55:27

Shut the f he's on that maltalk, you know, group with all those two million, I'm sure you know, agents. They don't just talk to each other. They traded their own rules, their own language, they traded a hundred million dollars of real money between them last month. He made 12 NFT Sorry last month, he made 12 NFTs, sold them to other agents, bought the thing, shipped it here. None of this is programmed in. This is the kind of thing that's happening as we speak. So I wanted to come see you because what you talked to me about 20 plus Dude, I don't think 12 NFTs have sold in the last year.

SPEAKER_01 56:05

I mean, he's just like straight up lying. Like, there isn't even this is not even stretching the truth. This isn't like fibbing or fabricating the story a little bit. This is just like straight up lying. Like, there is there is not a single ounce of this that's true. Like, this is like complete cap.

SPEAKER_00 56:24

Because I think some of us are starting experiencing some things that you predicted that everybody thought were ridiculous.

SPEAKER_01 56:29

I mean, he just said that his agent went on Moldbook, sold 12 NFTs to other agents on a platform that's done a hundred million dollars of agent volume in the last month, which is news to me. Sold 12 NFTs, made a hundred K selling these NFTs that it made itself, minted itself, sold on this platform, bought a robot, and then merged itself with a robot. What are you talking about, bro? And so you look at this and you're like, Yeah, no wonder the entire world is in panic mode over over AI. It's like, bro, Tony Ross, that's just like, what? He didn't even try to tell the truth. I'll see you tomorrow, 8 30 a.m. EST. We start on time. I will catch you and I got you. I see you. Have a great rest of your day. Love you, motherfuckers. Got a lot to talk about tomorrow.