The Kevin Warsh Era Begins, Saylor's STRC Death Spiral, Hyperliquid Changes Everything, Snapchat's $2,200 Glasses - Threadguy: June 17th, 2026

Threadguy watches Kevin Warsh's first FOMC presser live and comes away convinced the new Fed chair is no puppet, then runs the tape: why he's still long SpaceX into a parabolic move, the one flaw between him and an eight-figure P&L, the Michael Saylor STRC death spiral, Snapchat's $2,200 glasses disgrace, and why cheap Chinese open source could pop the AI bubble. Plus Hyperliquid's catalysts and the AMC trade that beat a year of Bitcoin.

Transcript

SPEAKER_06 0:00

Yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, what the fuck is gonna y'all doing? How y'all feeling? How are you all living? You know, you know me, man. Macro schmacro. I don't give a fuck about raids or Warsh or J Power. I don't care about any of it. However, I'm forced to care this time. This is a pretty historic. There's a lot of historics happening right now. And so we're gonna watch Warsh. Um, SpaceX is back above 196. I'm rich again, so life is good.

SPEAKER_03 0:28

A true honor to be back at the day and to take up this duty at a time of such consequence.

SPEAKER_02 0:35

Wow. He mogs.

SPEAKER_03 0:36

I've been especially heartened by the warm welcome of old friends and new colleagues both. And I've listened closely to my fellow FOMC members for a lot of new ideas, new thinking, and genuine interest in moving the Fed forward. This week's FOMC exemplified the very best of the Fed's traditions. Rigorous debate, open-mindedness, commitment to mission, responsibility, and accountability for performance.

SPEAKER_06 1:06

I can like there you go.

SPEAKER_03 1:07

In this business, they all add up to one thing: getting monetary policy right. Okay, cool. Or as near to it as we can do. That is our North Star. All right, that's good. As you saw a few moments ago, the committee decided to maintain the target range for the Fed funds rate. If you have any good send them up, pull them up three-quarters percent. I like his voice. In support of SpaceX like mandate. We recognize inflation has been running well ahead of the Fed's long-stated inflation goal of two percent. That's been going on for more than five years. His hair is kind of chopped. Persistently high prices are a burden for the American people. But the recent past need not be prolonged. Yeah, I got you. I am pleased to report that members of the FOMC are unambiguous and unanimous. This committee will deliver price stability. And with that, I appreciate your attention. I'm happy to take your questions. Market really likes him.

SPEAKER_02 2:03

And uh just specifically on the inflation uh framework, uh, you talk about first principles. Does this include a review of the two percent target itself? Uh you've mentioned that things to the right of the decimal. Flood tweet review matter. We want to watch FOMC with blank audio off and watch body language. 2% as a point estimate is is too strict.

SPEAKER_03 2:22

Let me break that into two pieces. Uh first, on the inflation framework review, their remit is what are the drivers of inflation? What's the Fed's responsibility for inflation? In part, how do we measure inflation, but that'll overlap with my data group. On the 2% inflation objective, that is the Federal Reserve's long-held objective of 2%. You've heard me say before, uh, I tend to focus on the left of the decimal point. Well, the two is the left of the decimal point. For now, zero is to the right. I see no reason until we have re-established our commitment and ability to deliver on the two percent inflation objective to revisit that. So that'll be outside the fucking thing.

SPEAKER_06 3:04

What are you talking about? What did that mean? Fuck, man.

SPEAKER_02 3:07

Thank you so much, Colby Swift and I'm not sure.

SPEAKER_06 3:10

SpaceX might have been 200 again.

SPEAKER_03 3:12

So I'd say it's only a market likes it for that. It's perhaps a function of different transmission mechanisms and monetary policy. SpaceX 200.

SPEAKER_00 3:20

Just a quick follow-up on your your market's point. If you look at two-year yields, they're really suggesting that markets think more tightening is needed. Without the whole fucking market, the two year yield is saying, such a good place.

SPEAKER_03 3:32

This is why we don't do third questions, I presume. I'm not going to offer any commentary on mark market reaction over the last uh 30 or 60 minutes. Um what we've given us is uh a new chapter for the fresh thinking. What we've given markets and households and businesses, I think, is a commitment to ask ourselves hard questions such that we can deliver on the promises that we've made before. Um this is a lot of change for financial markets to digest. I wouldn't be particularly intrigued by how they react in the first several minutes or even first several days. What I think is most important is that the financial markets, and at least as important, households and businesses know that this central bank will deliver on price stability.

SPEAKER_06 4:24

Wow. I wonder if it's a good one. I fucking like him. I kind of got the vibe that he's not a puppet, by the way. Like he felt pretty strong in his statements, he was cool, he kept it collected. I felt like he was pretty candid, even though he didn't say a whole lot. The task force thing was pretty annoying. I don't know. Look, I'm not a Fed guy, I pay zero attention. I'm I'm I'm pretty pro macro as a waste of everybody's time, but in moments like these, it obviously does matter, especially when uh you have a new Fed chair in. I feel like he's tapped in. I feel like he's really tapped in. Um, no more forward guidance, which I don't know, bullish bears, I have no idea. But I mean, I pay basically no attention. It's this is what it does feel like though, right? Is like, okay, without forward guidance, we are gonna be forced to watch FOMC meetings because the markets are gonna be more volatile. Feels like I feel like we're gonna be forced to watch every FOMC. Maybe this will just become a new thing. We watch FOMC now. Um, the yellow line is where he started the meeting. So we officially pumped 0.01% on the spy. Um, I let's take a look. I want to read a couple tweets, and then we have a lot to talk about. I guess the scariest part is 9 out of 18 Fed members think we need a hike for 2026, which is pretty scary if we did get a hike, but we're not there yet. I wish he would have given an answer on inflation being driven by oil in the Iran war. And imagine he said when the war ends, inflation will come down, and maybe we could even cut. That would have been unbelievable, but I feel like he didn't have a great answer for that. Um, what's polymorket saying for rates for the rest of the year? All right, fed decision in June is over, fed decision for July. We're saying no change as well. 81, 15 chance for cuts, or for excuse me, for hikes, and then September 16th, we're saying 64 no chance, no change, 23 chance for hike, 12 chance for cuts. So I don't know. I I guess we're gonna have to become daily watchers. There's a couple people out whose tweets I want to read real quick. All right, this is also a good point. Market front ran a lot of this hawkishness already. That was sort of the expectation. I guess we're just gonna have to get nice at understanding macro. I don't born to trade memes force to understand macro. Summary of the Warsh uh Fed share worship statement. One shorter Fed policy statements intended to give you the facts. I like this. We can actually read it. Board guidance and Fed statement, not well suited to current policy state. Establishes new independent task force in five key areas. It felt like it was 20 areas. Task forces will propose next steps, including changes to the summary of economic projections. The Fed will be maintaining its two percent inflation objective. Fed policy appears to be restricted for housing but not financial markets. A new era of the Fed is ahead of us. Not a whole lot there, huh? All right, here, let's read talks. So, first he said an hour ago. Um, we'll see what Wars has to say, but I don't think it's as bad as headlines. People are making it added more risk, and then less less unsure on this now. Don't want to overreact, but I think he has much more focus on price stability and inflation than the market was ready for. Didn't particularly take SALS and energy down now. ME PS as an easy off ramp. He could have used, but instead reiterated they'll fix it over and over. A lot to digest over the coming weeks and days. Um, what are what about stocks right now? So spy's down since he talked a lot. Q's are down. Let's go daily. Pretty nasty daily there. Bitcoin ugly, individual names. The mags are pretty ugly. Amazon down three and a half, Google down two and a half, SpaceX down two, Apple down two, meta down five. Ugh. And then the dollar is ripping, right? DXY, which I have here, is up one percent. That's a crazy chart, huh? Are we about to learn how to trade currencies? That's a pretty crazy chart. What about like the weekly? It's probably cleaner. I mean, I know nothing about any of this, but there's no such thing as a one, two, three, four, five, as a six tuple top. Never heard of it in my entire life. I didn't realize how based Warsh was. I wasn't familiar with this game. That's kind of my read as well. That's kind of my read as well. Pretty fucking based. All right, well, we did it. FOMC. Not the markets didn't really move all that much. Doesn't seem to be any crazy headlines that everyone's stirring around on. So we'll come back to when we come back to it. I wish we knew who the one guy who wanted cuts was. That would be electric if we knew who that was. But all right, let's talk about the market. First and foremost, topic number one, I would like to cover SpaceX. So traded really weak today. It got as low as low as 186. I don't know what to think of this trade right now. I had a stop for 187.7, which is my entry, because I was up, I don't know, $60,000 and did not want to round trip it to zero. And it was a really, really clean trade. I hit my three to one on a 51%er. I fucking binked it. I didn't sell any. I'm not entirely sure why I didn't sell any, but I didn't. And it got to my stop, and I do this thing where when a trade gets to my stop and I don't want it to get to my stop, I just remove it. And I did that exactly. I took it off. I just canceled it. I did this, I seem to do this a lot. Usually I lose money, sometimes it helps. And it's now trading at like it's now trading at 197. I'm gonna be honest, I don't fully know what I'm gonna do with SpaceX from the stage. I think first and foremost, I think the Warsh timing of this definitely slowed things down a little bit because we kind of had like a sucking of liquidity. It was hard to tell if it was from SpaceX or if it was from War, Warsh, whatever. And it felt very Trump coin-esque yesterday, and now it feels even more Trump coin-esque. But all right, so I stayed in SpaceX. Um, it felt very Trump-esque. I really still believe in the original thesis. I think this thing is gonna go fucking parabolic. I don't really feel like it made the move. It made a move, it made a very strong move, but I don't I really don't think it's done. If they carry me out and we go to like below 180s, I'll be done. It'll be unfortunate. There's a floor at 175, I think. Because 175 is the number it has to stay above five out of 10 trading days before the first earnings report, which could be late July, which is very soon, or it could be early August. And so I think that there is a soft floor at 175. And then I also know they are buying cursor for 60 billion dollars, all shares at an average of seven trading days, as from when they acquired SpaceX. So the higher the price, the less shares they have to give to make up the 60 billion dollars. And so there's that. There's also, yeah, the cursor GitHub clone that news got announced as well, which we'll look at. And so I don't know, I still think it's being underappreciated how little float still exists on SpaceX and how long it's gonna take for there to be more. And so I'm sitting in it now. If we think back to my thought process on trades, where I I'm trying to stop board trades, I'm trying to take these event-driven trades only. I think I'm really, really good at. I think I'm really good at it. Like, I actually think I'm great at it. Ideas, unbelievable execution, very poor. Run Marvell for 40 bandos and then re-enter for no reason, lose. Run Zcash for a six-figure trade, re-enter for no reason, give a bunch back, then short it for no reason, give a bunch back. Base X, bank it, hit the trade exactly how I want, add it on the way up, unbelievable execution, round trip it. I seem to I seem to be doing this a lot, but so we gotta work on that. So it is a little bit frustrating because I have this thought where I'm like, okay, if I only take these little event-driven trades, three to one odds, where I feel 50% or higher that I can bank it. We seem to hit every single one, but the selling part is very hard for me. It's hard for me to sell. You know what I like to do is I like to I like to average up. It's like one of my favorite bits. I like to slam the way up. Like I'll be up. I mean, I had like a you know 20% of my perps book in SpaceX, trades up a hundred percent, and I'm slamming green candles, like slamming them. I'm doubling green candles. Like, I love I hate to buy red, I never buy red, and I'll just slam green candles. It starts going up, and I'm fucking closing my eyes and just firing at it. I love to do it, and when it works, it really works. Like, I I you know, I always say like buy high, sell higher as is my trading strategy, but I'm not sure that's my trading strategy. It's it's the one I'm using, but I'm not sure that's my one. And so I'm looking at this and I'm like, man, ideas. I basically hit, I've basically been in every good trade over the last month and a half. I didn't really put a trade on for anthropic fable ban either. The only good one would have been Z Poo. I don't even have an IBKR, so I didn't trade that either. Sneaky Binked AMC, which we didn't talk about that much. Sneaky binked StubHub, which we haven't talked about that much. And so, yeah, I think it's like a selling thing. I think it's a selling thing. I gotta I gotta figure out how to get better at this, guys. I really do. Like the the only difference between me and $10 million liquid PL is not ideas, it's not ideas and it's not trigger pulling. I think that's most people's problem. I think I'm getting really good because I'm focused for the first time in a long time. I've never been focused on trading in my life, and I'm really focused on it right now. But uh let's get into it. Stretch is $90, it's the lowest price it's ever been right now. Stretch your income. What happens after this? It's $90. You remember? Yeah, you remember when someone asked me if Sailor slept well at night when Bitcoin is 60k, and I said yes. I don't think he's gonna sleep super well when stretch is under 90. The only way you can get this thing back to Peg is you have to increase the yield. So it's a what? It's like 11 and a half percent right now. In order to get this thing back, you clearly that 11 and a half percent is not enough. And so he's got to increase it to 12, 13, 14, 15, which in theory you can do. If it doesn't return, you have to add it more. But okay, if you have to add a couple percent, you get 12 and a half, 13 and a half. You now need 10, 20 more cash to pay out in dividends. You also need 1020 to raise 10 20 more cat uh percent to support the total amount, and you also have 10-20 less runway with the cash you already have. You have to issue more mst, dilute shareholders more, raise more cash, and this whole time Bitcoin has to go up more to justify MNAV. And if it doesn't, you have to there's gonna be less demand for stretch, you're gonna have to raise the yield more, more and more and more and more and more and more. That is a scary thought. I'm not touching it with a fucking for 11. You're out of your you are out of your mind. I saw this one other take I really like about how to think about the Tesla acquisition. It's like okay, SpaceX equity right now is so valuable. They just bought cursor and an all-stock acquisition. You could maybe think about they're gonna do like Flood was in here saying they should buy Figma. There's they're maybe gonna be looking to buying other companies, but I saw this really good take on the Tesla merger, which is if I put on Elon's financial this is the friend of the stream, by the way. If I put on Elon's financial engineering hat, you do more acquisitions at the retarded valuation and pump the stock, and then you do everything you can to crush Tesla price so that you can get it much lower. Not focusing on that merger first alone will help do that. Pretty interesting thought that Elon wants Tesla as low as possible so they can absorb it for as cheap as possible, diluting as little as little as possible to get Tesla. It's kind of a crazy thought, and so it makes the short trade a little bit interesting. I'm still afraid of it, deeply, deeply afraid of it, but it doesn't look very good. It's having a pretty ugly day from the pit average short entry. Yeah, SpaceX 192. If they really want to walk me out, I'm gonna just sell it. But the pit average short entry is up like eight percent. Did you hit XPL? No, I don't trade that coin. I'll never trade that coin. Coin getting nuked. How bad? Yeah, spy cliff, cliff, cliff, cliff. Igv always socks is still green. What happened to gold? Is it bad? Two and a half, cliff amc man. Beta amc is a uh safe haven. And then last but not least on SpaceX, and we're gonna move on and we're gonna talk shit about Snapchat. Is and then we'll do market close. Answer made a good tweet on it, or a tweet on it. If you like showing more SpaceX shares, I think people have meaningfully underestimated the skew of demand supply with the float, continuing to be number one traded stock by volume, and also number one traded with options. Contest's barred sentiment is going to lead more people to being squeezed and general misunderstanding of progress that business has made across diversified verticals with short-sided focus on current revenue numbers. 30 uh feel like this goes to never one most valuable company by market cap by end of year. 30 unlock in August, likely first local blow off top. No, all right. So let's take one more look. Um, I'm gonna look at DXY, which I think is ripping right now. It's ripping hard. Yeah, it is ripping hard. Jesus. Wow. US two years up three is up four percent, ten years up one point one three, thirty years down point three. That's pretty scary at the exact same time. Stretch lost nine. Oh my god. Stretch loses ninety. Damn, I might have to just stack this bag right now. Very unfortunate round trip. And Bitcoin's about to lose 64 again. I mean, so are we just thinking that Warsh is not a puppet and he's gonna hike the fuck out of rates, therefore we're panicking, ripping the dollar, destroying risk. We also still have some tailwinds of maybe Iran war as it relates to Bitcoin. Bitcoin does not need a reason to dump, it's just the way that things are. I still think new lows are on the table for BTC, but we'll see. Snapchat, which was a CT friendly stock for a while. A lot of people on CT liked it. Base 16Z famously liked it a lot. I never I never tailed him. We also had a lot of fun with Ireneic Capital. Came out, publicly took a 5% stake in Snapchat and went activist. And one of the bull cases is that they've been working on these meta Ray Ban competitors for a while, these AR glasses, and they finally unveiled them yesterday. They are $2,200 glasses. Now, forgetting the price and how hilariously disgusting they are, for some reason, I'm just not that excited about the wearable thing. I'm not that excited about the wearable the same way. I was never that excited about like th 3D goggles at a movie theater. Is I don't want to wear them, I don't want it on my face. I like the idea of AirPods with the cameras, I like the idea of Siri and my iPhone getting really fucking good. I have absolutely no interest on wearing, you know, I actually agree. Chris Camilo and a Mint had a discussion about this. I agree with both of them that I have no interest at all on AI wearables. I really don't. I I I hated the Apple Vision Pro. I had one for a while. I I guess I never had one, but I used other people's. It is super impractical, and it would have to get like the Apple Vision Pro would have to get 20 times better for me to use it. In which case I will wear it all day, every day. It'll be attached to my face, but I don't want to wear that thing. I just don't want to wear it. And so I think Meta has found a nice little niche with the the Ray bands. They work well enough, they are like classy enough, they look good enough. I know enough people that wear them, like they're they're relatively interesting as a product, they're kind of gimmicky, but they work well enough, and they're not that expensive. How much are they? Yeah, they're not that brother. $450. Not bad at all. That's not bad. That's really not bad. $450, like you could justify $450. I understand the Meta Ray bands thing. Okay, they're cheap, tough, they have a use case enough, they're good enough, they're cool enough, and the product fundamentally makes sense. Snapchat launches their version, which first of all is fucking I saw this tweet. Do you know how long you have to be microwaved by living in San Francisco, California, to think that this is a product that somebody would wear? Do you know how many years you have to spend in an SF to think that this is something somebody would wear? Seriously, how many years it would take? I mean, that's like a multi-decade progression to think that somebody would wear this, first and foremost. I mean, does he have like a really hot girlfriend? No input, nothing. Okay. Second of all, $2,200, bro. I make good money, okay? I do well. The amount of things that I spend $2,200 on are very low. Absolutely not happening. And then third and foremost, it's like, bro, what is this? They launched this? Seriously? I mean, this is a disgrace, Evan. This is an I mean, this is a disgrace. I don't build physical products, I know it's hard, fashion, I know the whole industry is is is difficult, but this is an absolute disgrace that he l they launched this for $2,200. I mean, give me a fucking break. And so for our situation, event-driven little traders, this was a sick one if you took it. It they launch it $2,200. You can see exactly on the chart where it they launch it. And yesterday, you can see exactly where they launch it, like a giant red candle. Yesterday it dumps 13% bottom tick, but it dumped another 7% today. And so you could have binked this for 19 on a short. That was a pretty free one on Mr. Evan Spiegel. 19, you could have binked this. That's a really, really, really sick trade. Uh Shoku, we need it on HL. Tred XYZ doesn't have it, which means I can't trade it.

SPEAKER_01 21:01

During your keynote, you took a jab at Mark Zuckerberg and you said the folks up north aren't gonna be able to copy these. But meta right now is selling much lower price devices. You have the 250.

SPEAKER_06 21:11

He did what? Evan Spiegel made this exact remark during his keynote. He was taking a direct jab at Meta, located north of Snap's Santa Monica headquarters, regarding their history of copying Snapchat features. He boasted that the copycats up north won't be able to steal the new technology because Snapchat has filed over 7,000 patents for it. Brother, they do not want to copy glasses. That was brutal.

SPEAKER_05 21:35

Uh la la la la la la la la la la.

SPEAKER_06 21:40

And I'm looking at the clock on the bottom of my screen, and it says that it's 4 or 5 p.m. Do you number with that me? Uh do you number with the SPX nasty day comes in open flat. I think it was a little bit green at one point. It comes in down 1.21% at $7,420 on the SPX. The Nasdaq comes in down one full percent. The Dow comes in down one full percent. The Cosby closed last night up 1.6 percent. Today it's gonna be very interesting to see how this trades. It might get destroyed. I don't know how futures look on it. Um, Russell down a percent, Q's down a percent. A lot of these charts, by the way, if we go lower, have this pretty nasty double top pattern. Like Qs just put it in here. SPX put it in exactly the same here. NASDAQ put it in the exact same here. Um socks really put it in the same way here. Pause. And the IGV can't put it in because it just looks terrible all the time. And then here is actually up 1.2% the bio index. This chart looks insane. It's one of my favorite charts in all the crypto or in all in all the markets. Basically, been sitting in this range for 205 days, just chopping, chopping, chopping, chopping, chopping, chopping, chopping at all-time highs. Look at this, chopping at all-time highs, ready to go. So I don't know, I'm not a TA guy at all, but the market's a little bit scared right now. But like looking at the NASDAQ, it's like okay. If this thing regains, makes a new high horizontal line over like 37, 30.7. If it gets back up here, we do like a little, like, you know, choppy choppy choppy, and it goes above that. I think we're off to the fucking races. SpaceX 400, fuck it. But if it doesn't and it goes this way, it starts to look pretty ugly. So we'll see how it plays out. Crypto. There's pretty much only one chart that looks good to me in crypto. Bitcoin is scary. Who has a new Bitcoin position they put on in the last two days? Has anyone put on a new Bitcoin position over the last day or so? It was I mean, man, it was green, but I wasn't I longed rope and stool. Yeah, it wasn't like doing anything particularly interesting, I think. It was just uh like a very structural technical bounce on BTC. I mean, bro, I sold my Bitcoin to buy AMC stock, so I don't deserve to say much. Well, I am I am up, but I don't really deserve to say all that much. But I sold my Bitcoin to buy AMC and Stub Hub, and I'm up. So I'm gonna just let this one simmer. I'm not gonna rub that in your face. But this is a uh I'm sorry it's a messy chart, but nothing's changed for me on Bitcoin. The one coin that everything has changed is hyperliquid looks incredible, unbelievably good. Um, I think it sort of got cucks on this breakout today with larger market forces. But hyperliquid 725, and you know, in the very near term horizon, we have huge delta for positive news with CFTC. You have Clarity Act, potential for positive news, you have anthropic IPO very soon. We don't know how soon, but soon. You also have open AI IPO, and man, if they could get these Chinese open source companies on hyperliquid, ZPU, Minimax, you could get some of these things on Hyperliquid. It has crazy tailwinds. But yeah, we are a little bit at the mercy of the larger market as it relates to hype, but it's funny. Like Robinhood had a sick day today, or at least it did. I don't know how it closed. Robin had a sick open, and IBK are also had a sick open. And so the higher Robinhood goes, the crazier your price targets for hyperliquid can grow. So this looks unbelievably strong. Zcash, not much to write home. I almost longed Zeke. Illinois governor Pritz Pritzker signed a 0.2% tax on crypto transactions into law, including transfers between personal wallets with the crypto council for innovation calling it the most punitive digital asset tax in the country. This is insane. 2% tax on transfers, bro. And it's they it it it passed. This is, I mean, it's terrifying. And so it's like again, uh privacy is gonna be a luxury in the new world. It just is. Privacy is going to be a luxury. You'll own nothing, you will enjoy it. You was it, you'll own nothing, and you'll be happy. They're gonna tax everything. Ever there will be a camera everywhere you look, everything will be recorded, everything will be on camera, and privacy will be like a luxury for the rich. And so, you know, I was talking about Tullip King today on the morning call, and I'm like, should I long? I was a little bit late, but is this a long Zcash on this announcement? And I kind of just came to the conclusion where it's like, all right, if you believe in Zeke or any of the other privacy coins, it's gotta just be a longer-term time horizon because it's pretty clear where the world is headed, it's pretty clear that privacy is gonna be a luxury. I like the way he framed it. I'm gonna I'm really gonna steal that. But it just might take a while, it just might take a while, and trading it whipsaw is just painful and tough and frustrating. But to see this, and I mean, bro, I don't know. There's there is a something here to see this is is unbelievable. Um, ETH looks like shit. Solana, I told you I'm down to stop being a a bear cuck on Seoul, but I switched to flat. I switched from hating to flat on Solana, but I'm not, I don't know. I'm still not down for a lot of the on-chain stuff on Seoul. I think cards is the only interesting one, and something has got to be wrong with that token because I don't know why it trades the way that it does. Um, bond yields are all up across the board, which is a little bit scary. Um, Nier is down 3%. VVV is actually up on the daily, kind of putting in a weird candle, but it is up on the daily. All right, this is also scary. Stretch is at $89 right now. I don't fully understand the alchemy that goes on in the strategy ecosystem, but what I do know is that in order to get this thing back to par, the way if it doesn't just trade its way back, you got to increase the yield, the dividend payouts. To increase the dividend payouts, your runway, you you need to raise more cash, you have less money, you can sustain it for less time, so you need to loot more MSTR shares, and so you hurt the MNAV of strategy, and then it's sort of this recursive flywheel if Bitcoin doesn't go up. And yeah, I don't know. Weird spot. I know some people that are way smarter than me like it a lot. So I'm not here to call the death of anything, but strategy looks like this, and MSTR looks like this. Total life support. I mean, look at this. This is strategy right now. Michael Saylor is the egg man. There's this old joke on Wall Street. A trader thinks that the prices of eggs are going to increase, and so he contacts his broker and asks him to buy a million egg futures at $1.70. Sure enough, a week later, the price of egg futures is $2.50. And the trader, happy to ride his winners, places an order for $3 million more egg futures. Next month, at $4.30 apiece, he pats himself on the back and restructures his liquid investments to buy another 10 million egg futures. At the end of the quarter, egg futures are trading at $7. And the trader finally calls up his broker and tells him to sell them all. The broker replies, to who? You're the egg man. All right, metals chads. We took a hit today. Um, or you took a hit today. Number one is silver's down three percent. Gold is down 1.5, the Mando coin, and copper, which I like a lot. I really like a lot still at 1.7% today on copper. Um, again, if it makes a move and it wants to rip above 6.6, 6'7. Uh-huh. I'm interested. All right, oil, good. Good, good, good on oil. Uh, crude oil is down 1% of the day to 7528 a barrel. Uh, Brent oil also down 0.44. All right, here's what matters big AI semis, a little bit of SAS, AI bottlenecks, photonics, all the big AI stuff. Here we go. Um, number one, biggest gainer, Cyber's up 10%. Shout out to Serenity. Real biggest gainer that in NYSE is Red Wire, Space Doc, up 6.5%. Arm is also up 5%. It made a new ADH today, but it retraced below. Broadcom is working with Anthropic to make ASICs, which is kind of a sick announcement. And it is up 4.3% today. Also a space stock, SPCE, Virgin Galactic Holdings, that's up four percent. Marvell's up four after news that the CFO sold a hundred percent of its supply yesterday. Good to see that. AFTS space stock up four percent. Dell, four percent ASML, four percent Intel 3.5, and it is teetering on this Trump PL screenshot level, but looks decent. Rocket Lab space stock up 3.2%. Micron up 2.2 with teetering at a new all-time high, but it lost it. Bloom Energy up one, AMD up one, Cerebrus up one, Firefly, space stock, that's up one. All right, biggest losers today. Let's start from the bottom. Beta bag seven looks terrible, down five and a half. Adobe, Michael Burry stock, that's down five and a half. SpaceX, close of the day, 191.82. That's down five percent. After hours, it is up 1.5% to 194.59. I'm still holding from 187, but big round trip is on the table, but we'll see. I like it, I think it looks good, and I think it's it is due for a squeeze pop, but we have some new tailwinds to deal with and to calculate in, which were not part of the thesis before. We're not I was not thinking about Warsh. I was more concerned about the war. War seems to be over. We need to be concerned about Warsh and Hikes now instead. Um, but but but AOS L is the D Gill stock, that's on four and a half. Salesforce down five, Microsoft Mag 7 looks terrible, confidently under 400. Uh Bill Ackman is down like 11% on the bag he bought very recently. He's 13F. It's down four percent. Uh BlackBerry's down four, Amazon down three and a half. Amazon is now 15% off ATH. IBM, that is down three percent, Oracle down three, Google down two and a half. Looks like it's gonna test that Berkshire level again. They bought at 350, bought 10 billion dollars of Google at 350 on a 5% discount. It's pretty close. Tesla down two. I really like the contrarian cap take that Elon wants to merge Tesla. You need Tesla to go as low as humanly possible, SpaceX as high as possible to dilute as little as possible to get this merger off. It's an interesting perspective. It's gonna be a fun one to follow since this tweet went live. And Sandisc is down one point six. All right, some of our consumer broker, uh, fintech, and SAS names, enhanced games, biggest gainer, nine percent. I hate this stock. Robinhood, uh on news that they are laying off half, uh not half, 10% of their employees takes a big pump today, up nine percent. It was as high as 112 on the daily. Third biggest gainer is AMC, which I hold a lot of on spot. It's up 35% since I announced my position on AMC in basically a straight line. Christopher Nolan, the Odyssey, is in theaters in less than a month, and we binked AMC pretty hard. Not selling, I have it all spot, but it's what I sold Bitcoin to buy. I sold Bitcoin to buy StubHub and AMC, and I outperformed like a year of holding Bitcoin in like a week. So that has been fascinating. Nevius, Leopold Astro better, new all-time high, up six percent. Um, Figma up three, IBKR makes a new all-time high. That is up two percent. Hims looks very good, is up 1.3, and GME is up 0.2. Biggest losers on this list. Let's start with Carvana down 10, Snapchat down another eight. I would, man, you had a 25%er on the Evan Spiegel glasses announcement. Special situations and long-term spot. That's all I want to do. DraftKings down eight, sweet green down seven, um, Reddit down five and a half, MSTR down five, up 1.2 after hours, but looks ready to die. Shopify down five, Ferrari down three and a half, Roblox down three, Coinbase down two and a half, and Nike continues to put in one of the worst charts of all time. What would it take for Nike here? Look at this thing. Who did you know it looked as bad? Here's the monthly on Nike. Crazy, crazy. I did not realize it looked as bad. I mean, it's just like there's like no support. I mean, this is the monthly, but Nike's just dead, man. I don't even wear Nike's. I wear I feel like Nike got killed by niche. You know, Nike used to dominate every vertical. Now you have you had Lulu, then you have Aloe with sneakers, Asics, Hoka, Ace, basketball shoes, fine, but basketball shoes used to be casual as well. They're not casual anymore. I don't know. Jordan, Jordans are dead. I wear them still, but they're dead. It's all dead. Um, nothing else. Airbnb down half a percent. Oh, All Birds. What did they do? They changed their name just because they changed their name. All birds, the uh GPU product provider. Is that it? They they pump because they changed their name. They already got the AI pump, though. They already did this. Look, first one, look at this. This is it already happened once. This was an announcement that they're pivoting to AI. It was up 900 top tick, closed 576. This was announcing they're changing their name to SmartBirds, which gave you 78 top tick. Right now, like 40. It's a 48 million dollar coin, bro. Dude, it's worth less than cards. It's 48 million dollars. It's worth less than cards. 48 million dollars. That is tiny, bro. 48 mil is mark. That's the market total market cap. I mean, I you could like there's like CT K KOLs on crypto Twitter that could pump this thing. I mean, like, I mean, we could rip this thing, really. And an Ansom tweet would handle this thing to all time. I mean, you could Ansom could like handle this on one tweet. That's crazy. All right, that's market close. Now we have a couple topics we want to talk about. Um, I thought this is one of the funnier clips I've seen. There's this like crazy Warren Buffett Schmir propaganda going on right now. I actually heard an interesting trade thesis that people are like uh Berkshire. Trades like inverse to risk, I guess, where they have so much cash and they're pretty diversified away from the AI bubble. Now they did take $10 billion and slam it into Google at 350, but I think they're generally pretty risk-off. And so if the market starts getting destroyed, they have a lot of stuff that's like inverse to AI, like airlines and like Coke, Coca-Cola, and they can, I mean, they could buy everything if it got bad. So there's this crazy smear campaign going on, and it's all because this Peter Teal clip.

SPEAKER_04 36:24

The other thing I think is sort of problematic, at least, about Buffett is that uh you know he's become the richest man in America um by avoiding technology altogether. And so it's it's always technology problem. Not doing would you rather invest in a spaceship company that goes to Mars, or would you rather invest in a Mars candy bar? And you know, in the end of the hundred when people live on Mars, they'll still be eating Mars candy bars. Spaceship companies will come and go, so you only invest in candy bars.

SPEAKER_06 36:55

But like, bro, Warren Buffett is 95, bro. He was born in 1930. Can you blame the guy for not being that excited about the AI trade? He was born at the century pico bottom. Can you blame him for not being super hype about recursive self-improvement? It's like, what is he supposed to what do you want him to do? You know, I mean he was buying the SP at like one dollar. It was one SPX was one. Airlines to him are like AI to us. That's crazy. Airlines to him are like AI to us is nuts. All right, switching it up. There's some crazy news on the AI world right now, and the timing of this is unbelievable. So I haven't used it yet, I haven't even tried it. But GLM 5.2, and the consensus is basically that this is the second best model of all of the models outside of Fable, which we no longer have access to, which would then as a default put this thing to number one. It's allegedly better than Opus 4.8, it's allegedly better than Codex 5.5, and because Fable is gone. Now it's a tough bar. It's like we know Fable exists. Fable is the bar, but it's gone, and it is gone for the foreseeable future. I don't know when we're gonna get Fable back. GLM 5.2 is the bar, and what's so fascinating about this is that you know, we had Hasebon. Okay, so C makes us pose it for a long time. I've been saying that the gap between open source and closed models is gonna widen because of the data gap, hardware gap, and increased restrictions on distillation. I was wrong. Z.ai by Z Poo, GLM 5.2, it's on another level. Incredible benchmarks on this model and early vibe reports are strong. Now running my Urmez agent on GLM 5.2 via Ask Venice API will report back how it feels. I remember when we did the China maxing segment. If you remember this, if you're a real OG of the stream, we did this whole presentation about China Maxing. And this is a while ago, six months ago, maybe less, five, four, four or five months ago. And one of the things we discussed is that there's this discourse in America that China is not a real competitor on frontier AI, LLMs, and they're just stealing American models. Sam is pushing this narrative, Dario is pushing this narrative, all the VCs are pushing this narrative, that they are just stealing American models. And the one point that I made is that while that might very well be true, they are far and away the leader in video. And so if they are able to lead in video by, you know, 10 cent by like a significant amount, if they're the best frontier video AI, then I don't know. Feels to me like there's a scenario in which they're not distilling and they are actually just producing incredible output with tight constraints. And that scenario is maybe underpriced because that's bad. Because the economics are a problem, right? Because they're open source and the requirements are very low and they're very fucking cheap. You know, I don't understand the economics of AI that tight, but I know enough. And we're already hitting this like headbutt. You've you've seen the narrative get pushed. Uber, seeing Google come out, you've seen Microsoft come out where they're limiting their devs because tokens are so fucking expensive. We're we're exiting the subsidy era for anthropic and open AI. These tokens are so expensive. But the the the differentiator has always been that the intelligence gap is so severe, you'll pay way extra, you'll pay exponentially more for incrementally better intelligence on the frontier labs, therefore America will win head and shoulders. But there's also this thought, Philip King peeled me on this, which is like, okay, what if, you know, say say the model 120 IQ, 125, 130, 135, 100, 140, 145. What if we decide that for most of the body of white-collar work, you only need like 120 IQ. You need like 120 IQ. That's the bar. Anything more than that is a luxury and it's nice, but you don't need it to get the tasks done for most of the body of like the labor force, right? Average college grad is 110. So let's let's say 115. 115, a little smaller than a college grad. 115. If that's the bar and all open source Chinese models are there for 10 10x cheaper, are you really gonna pay like you know 10x more to be on the bleeding edge to go from 115 to like 116? Like, what happens to the economics there when most of the body just needs 115? And it's uber cheap. I don't know, it's it's a very interesting discussion, but as it currently stands, there's export controls on Fable. No one in the world can use it, and even Americans. And the best model is open source, it's fucking cheap, and it's Chinese. Is that DBoo's public, it's a Chinese company, and they basically launched GLM 5.2 on the same day that Fable got hit with export controls and got banned. And so I was trying to figure out what the trade was. It was maybe VVV, but the VVV doesn't really make sense for export controls. I think VVV candles 100% when ChatGPT announces that all their chat logs got leaked, right? That's when VVV does 100% in a day. Oh, Enthropic announces every everyone's chat logs got leaked in some Ashley Madison type of situation. You panic, you buy VVV for private. Tau doesn't make any sense, tau is retarded. I didn't really know what to buy, and so I ended up buying nothing. But I'm again, I think there's a special situations trade every couple days. SpaceX, Binker, Snapchat short on the $2,200 glasses, binker, and then Fable export controls. That's almost like a black swan. That's like a special situations. Fuck event driven. That's like a special situations type of trade. And so from basically bottom tick on Z Poo bottom announcement of Fable to Top Tick, 48. And currently flow at flow, we're trading at right now is 36 gain on this. Crazy. Now you could argue it deserves plus 36 on releasing GLM 5.2, not on GLM 5.2 and export controls on anthropic. Z Poo's 100 billion, it's the best model, it's like 10x cheaper, and they just slapped export controls on Fable. No one can use it, and there's no, by the way, not only can nobody use Fable, but there is no timeable return for Fable. So think about it. It's one Z Poo right now is one tenth the price market cap wise of Enthropic. And until further notice, it's the best model on the market. And so this was a un there's a sp there's an event-driven type of trade every day, it feels like this was a crazy one. Could have banked it for 40%. It's very interesting. Now there's uh some friction here because IBKR, you got to apply to get access to Hong Kong stocks. I don't even have an IBKR account, which it doesn't help. It's not on the perp deckses, so I don't even know how to trade it. But this is uh this is a fun stream. This is a fucking fun stream. Chat, you like the earlier time to an hour early. I think the streams are way better. They're way better an hour early. I don't know what it is, but I got like a little pep in my step again. Yeah, I agree. No earlier than this, though. More energy, right? I'm like in a better mood. Can you stream longer now? You know what? You know what? On that note of can I street longer, can I stream longer? I would like to officially announce right here, right now, at 5 20 p.m. ST on June 17th, Wednesday, that I am seeing you tomorrow. 2 30. Have a great rest of your day. Love you, motherfuckers. Got a lot to talk about, we got a lot to get into tomorrow. Don't miss it. Don't miss it. Don't miss it. I love you. I'm out.