SpaceX Might Top Everything, Inflation Hit Escape Velocity, Trading SpaceX IPO, GoodAlexander Interview, Brian Johnson's Rx Platform - Threadguy: June 10th, 2026

Two days out from the SpaceX IPO, Threadguy preps for the Jack Schwager interview with Market Wizards lore and the Druckenmiller Black Monday story, reacts to Brian Johnson's new Rx platform, and enters two new positions on the IRL thesis. Then CPI comes in hot, Broadcom asks if the summer already topped, and Good Alexander returns to break down the IPO that sucks the liquidity out of everything.

Transcript

SPEAKER_04 0:02

Yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, how y'all doing? How y'all feeling? How are you all living? I I went to the store and they said, What do you want to look like? I said, Give me that Carmelo Anthony 2002, 2003. He said, No, say no more. God, it is so good to see you all. Welcome back to the stream. It is a beautiful week. The markets look like shit, but we look good. Okay, we look good. We have so much to cover. We have so much to get into today. We have so much to go over. I got a special delivery last night. A very special delivery last night. The new new. That new new Jack Dwiger, Market Wizards, the next generation. That's that new new. I started reading it. It's awesome. Um, it's it's awesome. And by the way, I don't know if you guys know this, but this guy is in the market wizards, the short bear. Do you know who this is? He's like the biggest crypto bull on the TL right now. He's in the market. Apparently, he's made like a billion dollars in liquid markets. I don't know. I've heard a differentiating numbers, but he's in the book. Yeah, like Market Wizards. The asset he is the most vocally bullish on is ETH. Ether. He's an Ether bull, like perma bull on ETH. It's unbelievable. I don't know. That's just what I've heard. I I don't really know too much about too much, but he's never really done an interview. And he did Market Wizards, and Jack got him on. So he's retarded. Yeah, Jack got him on. And we got Jack on tomorrow. And so I was reading some old Jack Market Wizards books. And I mean, dude, I've been talking about these books for a long time. I've been reading these books for a long time. I think I first started reading them two years ago, three years ago, and I didn't fully understand what I was reading, so I didn't know who any of the traders were. And he's coming on the stream tomorrow. I mean, he's interviewed every and he's coming on the stream tomorrow, and I didn't fully realize the scale as to which he's interviewed quality traders. And I went through and I looked. And I mean, bro, he's interviewed everybody. Paul Tudor Jones in the book, Stanley Druckenmiller at 35 years old in the book, Michael Steinhart in the book, Michael Markets Commodities Corporation in the book, Bruce Covner in the book. Like, bro, he literally, he's the one who put us under Chris Camillo in the book. He's literally interviewed every David Shaw in the book, Jim Simons in the book. He's interviewed every Steve Cohen in the book. Like he's interviewed everyone, every great trader to ever live. He's interviewed. He's 77 years old. And the craziest part about the whole read is that he's not a trader. He's pretty open about this. He's like, I'm not a trader. I don't have what it takes to be a trader. I'm not a trader. Yet he's interviewed every great trader. Basically, every I don't think he's gotten Soros. There's some guys he's missed. I don't think Bill Ackman has been on. I was reading some old chapters. And so one of the things I realized, I'm reading these chapters. I read Stanley Drucker Miller last night, and I read uh Michael Marcus. And what I didn't realize at the time is that most of the information in More Money Than God is taken from the Market Wizards interviews. That's how he has all his info on all these guys. It was taken from the Market Wizards, which is which is crazy to read. And one of the one of the things I thought was so interesting is like, okay, the first Market Wizards was written in 1989. 1989. In there, Michael Steinhard is in there, the commodities corporation guys are in there. Bruce, Michael Marcus, and Stanley Druckermiller's in there. Stanley Druckermiller is like 30 years old in this book. It's it's insane. It's 1989. It was like two years after Black Monday. And I'm reading these really old interviews, and I'm reading this one with Michael Marcus. And so he he is famous. He worked for Commodore, he was a trader for Commodities Corporation, which was like the dominant fund of the 70s. And their whole bit was like they called it trend surfing. And so they basically would slam breakouts and they would not sell in all they were like the first fund that would trade all asset classes. This guy, Michael Marcus, allegedly turned 20,000 to 80 million in the 70s. After take fees, he turned 20, 30,000 to 80 million in the 70s, bro. Which is what? I mean, what's 80 million dollars in 1979? They're saying that's 360 million dollars. And it's so funny you read these old, these old trading stories, and it just is like a different era. And one of the things that I found interesting, always find interesting in these books, is they I don't think they're nearly as active in markets as we are, right? For better or for worse. And so they talk about the their trading eras by the trades that they were in, and it's like the trade of the 80s, or like the trade of the 70s, or like the trade a year. Like they don't take that many active positions. It's like the trade of the year. The trade, like the 80s, oh yeah, that was Black Monday era, and that's like, or like the 70s, oh, that was when um Volker or Fed share comes in. That was the gold year, right? Gold we're off the gold standard. Gold went up like whatever bajillion percent. That was the gold, it was like the gold decade, and then it was the black monday decade, and then it was the dot-com decade. This they talk about like a in decades, bro. And so we talk about these things in day in hours sometimes. And so one of the things that I thought was was crazy is he was 1989 and he's mostly retired, and he's doing this interview, and he's talking about Michael Marcus. You should Google him, and he's talking about how he had an era where he was really hyped about uh trading currencies. And the thing about trading currencies is that they're 24-7, and in 1989, Michael Marcus is like basically is like I had to stop fuck 24-7 markets, it destroyed my marriage. I was waking up every two hours. Nobody should ever have to trade 24-7 markets. Here we are, and basically everything that I mean, everything is 24-7 now. It's like we're we're buying Marvell at midnight on EST hours after Jensen's in South Korea talking about Marvell's gonna go to a trillion dollars, and there's you know, nine figures move on hyperliquid, and it was kind of a crazy thought. And so then it led me to think like, all right, are we gonna look back on these trading years as the decade defining trades? Like, are we gonna look back on the 2025 to 2030 era as the hyper liquid trade? Is that a thing? Or like the SpaceX trade? Is 2020s gonna be the Bitcoin trade or the ETH trade or the Solana trade? Is 2020s gonna be maybe there's smaller brackets like every three years? Like 2020s was like Bitcoin, meme coins, hyperliquid. It was the crypto decade. I don't know, but it's pretty wild you read these guys and you read these posts and the way that they talk about it, and it just felt like they traded so more infrequently. But it's yeah, I mean, it's it's sick read. It's a sick, sick, sick read, and I recommend that uh that people read it. And so he's coming on tomorrow. He's not a trader, Jack Schwagger. He got his he got his start because he had like he got an analyst job writing about cot uh cotton or something. One of the funniest bits in this whole book, by the way, and all these market wizards is all of these traders basically got a lot of them got their start as analysts at some trading firm that and they knew absolutely nothing. They they referenced it over and over. I knew nothing. I was and you were getting paid as an analyst? Yeah. Were the funds following your trades? Yeah. Did you know what you were doing? Absolutely not. It's a really good bit, bro. He's 77. He's been doing trader interviews since he was like 30. He's I mean, he's like actually he's the one, he's the go. So that will be tomorrow. I look forward to you guys getting a chance to watch that interview, and it's probably my personal favorite. So I'm excited for that. Quick story: the worst trade of all time. I read the Stanley Druckenmiller chapter, he was 35. I recommend you read this one because he's like he's old now. I mean, he's old, he doesn't sound as articulate. Friday, October 16th, 1987. Stanley Druckermiller and Duquesne fund. He's super bearish. Okay, he's like max short 100% of their book. They manage a couple billion dollars. He's max short. It's the Friday before Black Monday. Stock market dropped 29%. It was like a 160 Sigma move or some some insane shit. Okay, he's giga short. He's a giga bear. He's like, I'm so bearish, I'm so bearish, I'm so bearish. He looks at his levels, he looks at his technicals, and he decides that the move has happened. They're up a lot of money, they take their profit on the shorts, they close. Right before market close, he makes a decision and he says, you know what? If I'm not bearish, I'm bullish. I think at the very least, we're gonna have some level of a bounce before we go lower. I'm long. This is the Friday before Black Monday, October 16th, I guess, 1987. Not only does he close his shorts and flip long, but an hour before market close on the Friday before Black Monday, when the SP dropped 29% in like a day, Stanley Druckermiller takes the entire fund. Duquesne takes the entire fund and goes long 130% of their book. Market closes. He then goes and he hangs out with his old boss, this trader of his. This guy used to run the fund that he worked for, and this guy's been retired for 20 years. He hasn't, he, he claims he hasn't looked at a market in 20 years. Stanley Druckermiller gets lunch with him on like Saturday morning, okay? And he brings up the market and the guy asks him, he's like, Can you show me a price chart for like the SP or whatever? Druck and Miller's like, yeah, sure. Shows him a price chart. And the guy goes, you know, I haven't traded a stock in 15 years, but I'm at this retirement community, and there is one too many players at these bridge games on Friday night talking about how much money they've made in the stock market. I think it's about to go down a lot. And Drucken Miller's like, uh what? I just longed 130% of the book. Are you sure you haven't? No, no, I haven't looked at the market in 15 years, but I just like got this feeling. This is old boss. I just got this feeling. I think it's gonna go down. The next day, Sunday, he meets with Paul Tudor Jones and he's like, Paul, I'm fucking long 130% of the book. And Paul goes, uh, look at this chart, my associate, Peter Borlish, who we're gonna try and get on the stream. Peter Borlish just drew up and he has the infamous chart, and it's 1929, overlaid on 1987, and it's the exact same fractal, and it just has to go down in the straight line. And he's like, fuck. And he says, In that moment, I knew I just felt it. I knew I was fucked. Market opens, stock market limit down before he could sell, limit down again before he could sell, limit down again. And by the time he was able to sell, the stock market was down 29% in like an hour on the SP 500. It was on 29 in an hour, and Stanley Druckermill was like 130 of their entire fund, which was like a five billion dollar fucking fund, bro. And so this is the last thing is Jack, Market Wizard's author, has this little bit where he makes fun of efficient market theory, right? And they said that the like so he makes fun of efficient market theory, and one of the justifications he does or uses to make fun of efficient market theory and say it's bullshit, is that the likelihood of that drop in Black Monday, October 19th, 1987, was 10 to the power of 160. Okay. And this is what he claims. I don't know if this is true. He claims the same likelihood of the SP dropping 29% in a in a day has an equivalent likelihood of you blindfolding yourself, randomly picking an atom out of the entire universe, spinning around, closing your eyes, doing it again, and picking the same atom back to back has the equivalent likelihood of the fractal printed on October 19th, 1987, assuming efficient market theory was true. And it's fucking not. This influencer brand is really popping off. First and foremost, Brian Johnson just launched a longevity RX platform. It has all of the prescriptions he currently uses. And I mean, this is gonna be massive. I'm not gonna lie. This is gonna, I mean, he's gonna I would buy Brian Johnson pills. I'm not gonna lie. He's the first thing listed is his Cialis. Unbelievable marketer. He probably makes a billion dollars from this. You know, I I wonder, what does a company like Hims do? How do you beat Brian Johnson in distribution? You probably don't. You would have wished you signed him to a brand deal, but he's too smart for that. You if you're a Hymns, how do you beat Brian Johnson in over-the-counter drug distribution? You don't. Second one that launched is Kai Trump just launched an energy drink company accelerator entering the market as a competitor to Logan Paul and KSI's popular energy drink brand prime.

SPEAKER_00 11:56

All right, let's see my new flavor. Oh my god. I just launched my own energy drink with accelerator, and honestly, I couldn't be more excited. This is absolutely amazing. It's called Blue Rush Lush and getting to create my own flavor.

SPEAKER_04 12:08

Brandy does kind of suck. I hate it.

SPEAKER_00 12:09

With her brand I've worked with for the past year, it has been so exciting. I love this brand, so getting the opportunity to go from being an athlete sponsored by the brand to investing in creating my very own energy drink has been something I'll never forget. This has been months of preparation from flavor testing and choosing the final recipe to seeing the can for the very first time. And everything that went into bringing this drink to life. Blue Ras Lush is officially out now, and I cannot wait for you guys to try it.

SPEAKER_04 12:33

I'm surprised it's not there's not been more of this. These influencer brands. How far away are we from you walk into a 7-Eleven and every single piece of merchandise on the shelves is like an athlete or a celebrity's own brand. It's probably gonna accelerate really, really fast. A company like Brian Johnson, what he's working on, is gonna obliterate a hymn's. How do you compete if you're hymns? I think it's really hard to do it. And so I was thinking about this, and I'm like, okay, if this is the case, and if every influencer, every celebrity is about to launch a product really fast, these sponsorship deals from these mainstream products are gonna go fucking through the roof as they try to save themselves. Like if you're Gatorade, you're in a weird spot. You are in a really, really weird spot if you're Gatorade. I think Def Curry is launching something, Tom Brady's launching coconut water. Like every single athlete in the world is gonna launch a drink. It's the most obvious thing of all time. You basically gotta sell out and sign Wemby, sign these other guys, sign it, sign all of this. But anyways, we'll come back to it. Let's take a look. The SP 500 basically closes at low of the day, coming in at 725.81. SPX down 1.62 percent at 72.67 flat. Pretty ugly day. It seems like war is still on the table. And this was a weird day. Like we were down a lot. We traced a lot of those losses, almost flipped into gains, and then like at one point we were up and then ripped it back down with a pretty gnarly close. We are now looking at a dip of about four and a half percent off ATH, and it's not a lot, but it's definitely not nothing. There's definitely not nothing on the SPX. The NASDAQ 100, that's down 1.82 percent. The Dallas down 1.87. The Cosby last night's session and the South Korea session, that's down four and a half percent. This is starting to look pretty gnarly. The Qs, they're down two full percent, making that about a seven and a half percent dip on big tech. Um, the semi-ETF puts in a second red day, that's down about 13 off ATH. The IGV, it tried it today, man. It really there was a moment, I think, where the socks was down three percent in some change, and IgV was up one to two percent, and it ends up closing down 1.5 officially, and then the IBB or bio index that is down two full percentage points, and we're looking at about seven percent off of ATH. All right, the big earnings that just happened. Let's give it a look. Um, Oracle with a double beat. However, we know that that is not enough these days to just beat you. Must demolish. Okay, Oracle was down like 2.2 intraday. It just wicked crazy. Wow, it was down to 183. It's now done like 1% ish after hours at 198. It really did go for a second. Um, moving on, cryptocurrency, Bitcoin. Really nothing new to add here. I was almost about to make a tweet today. I typed up the tweet and it was like something along the lines of wow, war escalation in Bitcoin is green. It was up like two percent intraday. It retraced the whole move. And it looks like we're going for new lows. I'm gonna be honest, we're we're ready. I think we're ready. I'm still completely uninterested in BTC at the moment, but uh 61.7 and it looks ready to go again. Hyper liquid is the real disappointing one, I think. Try to make a little bit of a move, but it looks it looks pretty weak. I don't know what the level is for buying on on HL. I don't know. So we'll see what happens with hype. Um, Zcash, not that much to take away from these coins at the moment. Uh, the weakest ETH looks pretty bad down a percent, and it just feels like there's no optimism painted anywhere on this chart. And then Solana, which came out today, and while they are trying to change the branding to not be a gambling company, they did announce this today. Um this could be the last card of the 2003.

SPEAKER_02 16:38

What you see is plain luck. What you don't see is the complex calculation behind every read, the cost of every call, the every fold. See them moving with conviction. You don't see the math behind every move, the position, the pot odds, the expected value, edge. You see the numbers on the cards. You don't see the numbers behind every decision, and the nerve to make the right one. You see them going all in. You don't see everything they held back. The doubt, fear, noise. The real play is never just the poker, it's the mind behind it. The world series of poker, now presented by Solana.

SPEAKER_04 17:13

It's a pretty good ad, I can't lie. But what does this do for the narrative? Nothing. I don't know how much do you think that spot costs, by the way? But Solana's $63. It's basically made this last support line into resistance, and I don't really know what happens below there. I don't really want to find out what happens below there. And then we have stretch here, 9581. Let's take a look just in case. But I don't think no zero bitcoin on stretch. Yields are up across the board, two year 10 and 30 are all up. The VIX was up 11% intraday today, which is terrible. Does anyone here trade the VIX? Is that like a thing? Is that a thing that anyone does here trading the VIX? Um, VVV is the last coin, it's volatility index. V is the last coin that I have on this like majors crypto section. It does feel like it's rot. I mean, this thing trade look at the way this thing is so like schizo, bruh. Look at this thing go. I've uh it's so schizo. Um, VVV is down 13 intraday. Um, all right, metals chats. Where are we? Silver, or excuse me, gold, which I've been pretty pretty open that I think gold looks terrible, is off a cliff today. It's down 4.3%. Peter Schiff is bare is bullposting, excuse me, but this looks this looks ugly. It's down four and a half percent on gold. Silver, I think, is worse, not quite. This is down to sixty-three dollars. It's down two, it's almost three percent on silver, and then the one that I like the most is copper. And I am not really looking, I've convinced myself this is a bottleneck of robotics and AI, and the most interesting out of all of the metals, but I have no position in any. All right, let's get into where things get a little bit dicey. First and foremost, oil crude front dated contracts is 9075 a barrel right now. That's up three percent crude. Second, Brent Oil, 93.45. That is up two and a half percent on Brent Oil. Um, not great. We have a Trump speech. We have to watch a few minutes of. We have some escalation headlines that we have to read. And the thing that is so annoying about this oil chart is it hangs around and it looks clean just enough for you to convince yourself that you could long it before you get whipsawed either direction. All right, here's where things get a little bit a little bit dicey. I have five green names on my semis, big AI, a little bit of SAS, a little bit of everything in-between chart. First and foremost, we have Cerebrus, which is printing a pretty nice potential bottom here. This is up four and a half percent, four point six percent on the day. Second, SPCE, our little micro cap space stock that is up 2.6 percent on the day. It's a fucking bizarre chart, but it's green. Netflix is up a percent, Apple's up 0.35 after an ugly day yesterday, and Snowflake is basically flat. Then we get into the red. Um, first and foremost, Robostrategy. Kind of a gnarly day because if you look at the hourly, this thing was the biggest gainer at one point. It was up like 12, 13, 14 intraday, and it closes down 15 on RoboStrategy. It's now up like give or take 25 from where Andrew Kang publicly takes over as CEO. Bloom Energy, that's down 10. Cloudflare, that's down seven. QCom is down seven, and it's a pretty ugly chart. I am willing to declare the Jensen show power over.

SPEAKER_01 20:44

As AI goes to the edge, do you expect um you know Nvidia to be strategically interested in, you know, also entering smartphone chips again?

SPEAKER_06 20:54

No. And the reason for that is because it's not necessary. I I think I think um Apple's doing a fantastic job. I think um I think Qualcomm's doing a great job. You know, I think I don't think it's necessary. I actually watched it. I also think that in order to build chips for smartphones, the software stack is very different. Nobody has a better software stack than V on PC, period. I can go toe to toe with anybody. So so we offer something very unique and we're quite you know quite specialized in that. But for for mobile devices, the software stack's very different, the peripherals are very different, and so we're incredibly good here. I don't think we're incredibly good at mobile devices, and I don't think it's necessary. I think they're just doing something.

SPEAKER_04 21:27

Yeah, it was a Uyghur show.

SPEAKER_06 21:29

Good job. Buy their stock. That's good.

SPEAKER_04 21:31

He hit that though. He hit that at the end. He hit that at the end. The Marvell show was kind of nuts. Yeah, this this was a way, it kind of got the quote, it was way stronger. Like Jesse Duong says to buy Qualcomm stock. I think the quote was way stronger than the actual show, but that's Qualcomm. Um, space got pretty cross today. Redwire is down six. Um, Arm is down five, Marvell was down five. Nasty. They had closed this yesterday for a reasonable loss. Wasn't too happy about it. Um AMD is down five, Micron's down five. We're now plus seventy percent. From the air mass level. NVIDIA's down four. Nokia's down three. Dell's down three. Rocket Lab Space. That's down three. And it's now fuck on 30% off ATH. Ready to lose 100. Amazon's at two and a half. Google's down 2.5. Let's check in on Oracle. Ooh, nasty. It went green and lost it. Completely lost it. Down five and a half after hours on Oracle. Weak. Market is weak right now. It is ready to sell. It feels ready to sell off. Market is weak right now. Oracle down five and a half after a double earnings beat. What has Broadcom done since their earnings? Is it still down significantly? Yeah, it is. Um this is Broadcom. I mean, if that was the top, by the way, if we topped for the summer and we don't make a new all-time high in the summer, this was to me, this was the first dead give. Is Broadcom double beat, not strong enough, gets absolutely destroyed on earnings, and it's down 25%. To me, that I mean it was down like 15% after hours. This was the correct me if I'm wrong, but this was this was the first type of sign, right? All right, moving on. Uh, some more and more consumer ass type of names. Biggest daily gainer three days in a row is the enhanced games. What gives? I don't know. I think it was just from a sell side like price update. We did this. Um, it is now up 78% off the bottom. Also, sweet green back from the trenches. This thing is up uh back up 26% from when Chris Camilla first came on the stream. Uh biggest gainer. Third biggest gainer of the day is MC, which I announced yesterday. I took a sizable spot position in. Let's mark it. Uh 196 is my entry. It's on Robinhood, so you're not gonna see it on my hyperliquid account. The red guy enters spot on AMC. I like this. Pretty big size, man. I got quite a few five figures in there. It was more or less I really want to rework the way that I position long-term spot and then special situations. I want to try to get off leverage just for the sake of being on leverage on a position I don't really believe in in these board trades. Um, DraftKings, that's up 4.5. Open doors up three. Robin Hood had a sick day. It retraced a lot of it, but closes up 3%, and it got as high as $92 today. And I think it was just because um Meyer Malka now bought 680 shares, $55 million of Robin Hood over the last two weeks. I don't know if this is actually what made it go up, but reasonable correlation. That's a lot of fucking size. GME pretty much flat. All right, biggest losers. Caterpillar down six, Unity down six, Rivian down six. He just CEO just went on TV, and I think was a good episode. I ran down four, him's down four. I wonder if the Brian Johnson drug platform announcement is bearish for himself. Let's actually mark that out and let's see how that plays out. Uh Neb's down four, Snapchat down four, Figma, the worst stock ever down four, reddit down three, Ferrari down three, Doordash down three, PUSA Golf Resort turned Donald Trump Jr. drone company. That's down three. Stubhub. This is the other stock that I took a position in, along with AMC to for my IRL thesis. I entered right here. And third guy buys spot. I like this one as well. Um, the if I'm wrong on either of these, the reason I'm gonna be wrong is that I don't understand the businesses well enough. World Cup is coming to the United States right now. NBA Finals tickets are the most expensive they've ever been. I saw a message that's where is it? Yeah, game two of the Spurs and Knicks was the most watched finals since 2018, which is pretty unbelievable. Shopify, that is down two, Nike down 1.5, MSTR down 1.5. It was gonna go green for a second, but this thing is getting crushed. Um, IBKR that's down one, Coinbase down one, take two interactive down 0.75, Lily down 0.7. All right, altcoins real quick. Let's give a look at some altcoins. Uh, leader is Monero. It's the only thing that's green. Everything else crushed, chip down 16, VV down 13, Athena down 10, Mega down 10, Leder down 8.5, Galaxy down seven and a half, pump fun. I have not heard anything. I gave my proposal for how to save Pun Fun. Nobody's gotten back to me, so I guess they're not interested on my proposal to save Pump Fun. That's down 8% today, and nothing else particularly worth noting. All right, uh, first and foremost, we have some war check-ins to do. Um, so there's some escalations that happened here. I don't like to spend too much time on the war on oil because it feels like deja vu every day. But Trump came out and said Iran's military is a complete and total mess. Much of it, like their Navy and Air Force doesn't even exist anymore. They have been completely defeated. Iran, Iran is all talking about action. The bully of the Middle East is dead. They've taken two long to negotiate a deal. That would have been great for them. Now they have to pay the price. Followed by Israel preparing to strike Iran, followed by Trump saying the US is going to strike Iran.

SPEAKER_03 26:56

So we'll see what happens. But we hit him hard yesterday. I'm gonna hit him again hard today in case you miss it. In case you don't turn on your television set. And uh we'll see what happens with the deal.

SPEAKER_04 27:08

We were it feels like he's getting antsy. He wants this. I believe that he wants this thing done. I believe he's wanted this thing done for a while, and we are not done. It feels like Trump is fucking I'm antsy. And then here's a quick explainer of what happened yesterday with the Apache helicopter. Their pilots were flying low in the street of four moose. An Iran drone lodged in between both pilots but did not explode. The drone caught on fire as the pilots were attempting to land the helicopter. These two pilots then took the helicopter into the sea and were rescued by an unmanned sea drone, which what's the company called? We looked it up yesterday. Unbo it's private. I wish it was public. I wish it was public because we could have seen how much it would pump. The unmanned sea drone. It's like a Waymo boat. It's unbelievable. I've never seen anything like it. The U.S. responded with 20 uh retaliatory strikes. So that is where we are on the war updates. I look, I continue to think the longer this goes on, the more likely we are to hit a curl pop on the oil trade. I just I'm not gonna be there to do it. You know, if it starts to really go, I could find myself in. But every second that passes and you are in this long, you are just a sitting duck, man. You're like a shahead, you're like a shahead drone flying over the US and they're just trying to take you out, man. Here it is. Remember by long oil, you're long and asked that almost every country on earth is incentivized to see trade lower. Tough. Second, um, okay, I don't do a lot of macro sh macro. You know I hate macro schmacro, I call it macro sh macro. If you come on this stream and tell me I'm supposed to care about interest rates, I'll tell you to go fuck yourself. However, there are some times where I think it's important. Today feels relatively important. I don't know. So CPI came in, consumer price index, which is so stupid. I mean, they just take the like least inflated basket of assets that's dynamically changing all the time, and then give you the best possible CPI. And the best possible CPI they could come up with today is 4.2%, which is at expectations that was 4.2%. Previous was 3.8. That's a lot, dude. I will never, at least not now, come here and pretend to be some expert on inflation or macro. It's the highest since 2023, and stuff like I almost feel like the price of things has just hit escape velocity. Like, I think 2% is the optimistic goal on inflation. It feels like things like stuff have just hit escape velocity in this world. Like, you tell me 4%, I I look at it, it feels like it's 20. I mean, I I was watching this video today about the price of cars, and this guy who was talking about pickup trucks in particular. You can't buy a new truck for under 100 bands. Can't you can't? I mean, the price of stuff is gone. I I casually go to the grocery store and now spend a hundred dollars and I'm like, whatever. Coffee and a I bought a coffee, a uh granola bar, and a blueberry today at the grocery store, and it was like $17. And so the thing about this too is that you get oil rip. It makes everything more gas and everything else more expensive. And we have basically completely ruled out rate cuts, and now hikes are on the menu. And I think first Fed meeting with Kevin Walsh is soon. It's like in when is when is the next Fed meeting? It's like in a week, June 16th. Next week, dude. I'm excited for that. Now it's next week. Trump spoke about it, and he uses the quote, I love inflation, is what he says.

SPEAKER_03 30:14

Sure. The right people come into our country. Could that be a numbers we're trying to try and hold it? You know what I really love? I love the inflation. You know why?

SPEAKER_04 30:27

To take him out of context a little bit. He didn't quite say I love inflation. You know what I really love?

SPEAKER_03 30:31

I love the inflation. He did say it.

SPEAKER_04 30:33

Fine.

SPEAKER_03 30:34

Because as soon as this war is over, you know, I can say it now. Something in it. You know, we've been taking out millions of barrels of oil. Nobody knows it. You know who doesn't know about it? Iran, until right now. We took out the other night 22 ships late at night with no lights. Because they don't have any radar, because we blasted the crap out of it. We took out that's why oil's $85 a barrel. I mean, you take a look. Remember when I did this, I said, look, the one bad thing will be we hit the best economy we've ever hit. And I said to my people, I had Scott, I had Howard, I had Pete, it all I had Todd in the room.

SPEAKER_04 31:10

I said the one great minds of our generation, starting with Pete. One thing. We haven't said the word Pete in like a month.

SPEAKER_03 31:17

We have to do now. We had just hit the highest stock market in history, highest 401 case in history. Everything was going well. And I said, I hate to do this to you guys, but Iran's gonna have a nuclear weapon very soon. We have to go and attack. So we hit him with the B-2 bombers.

SPEAKER_04 31:32

So I have talking about price, but it's the one dev you don't mind talking about price. So that's CPI brought to you by yours truly. Look, I only bring it up if I if I I the only time I'm talking about macro on the stream is if I am utterly forced. Just genuinely forced. I'll bring it up. I'll talk about it. Also, one other thing I missed today is uh look at this cracker bale. Look at this plus 23% today. It was up as much as 35% in today. Chat Beyonce, when's the last time you waited a cracker bale? I why this is a public company. I went to a cracker bale when I was in Florida for an interview that actually never got posted um for some secretive reasons. And it was that shit was ass. Okay. Oh, last but not least, I I made a new list. IRL experiences. I have a new list. Okay. On the list, we have AMC, my favorite. We have StubHub. We have Live Nation. Everything was green on this, by the way, except for the one that's like a counter. Uh we have MSGE, which is Madison Square Garden Entertainment. This is the arena point five. We have MS Madison Square Garden Sports Corp, which is the Knicks. We have the Sphere, which is also owned by them. We have Royal Caribbean, this counter signal, because if you get on a cruise, you're not someone that I really want in my vicinity, just to be completely honest. We have Six Flags, which is also a little bit of counter signal, but it's up. We have Liberty Media Corporation. I forget what this even is. What is uh oh, Formula One, and then we have TKO, which is the is on here as well. So that's my list. All right, boom, Mr. Good Alexander. Welcome back to the show. It's been a while, man. You got a new background.

SPEAKER_05 33:06

How you been, dude? I'm good. I'm in uh I'm at home in Omaha in a basement, so yeah, it's a different, different setting. Uh, how are you doing?

SPEAKER_04 33:14

Um, I hope you're enjoying home, man. I'm doing great, dude. I have you're on with uh David a couple months ago. We were talking Chip, which was a really fun one, and we got to get a little bit of SpaceX action on that stream, but it obviously wasn't the focus. And now we're a day, two days out. And I mean, man, a lot's happened since you came on. I think the main thing to start with is that there's just been a lot of new information on the IPO circuit since you first came on. We didn't really know that much about SpaceX other than the fact that it was coming. We now know more information on their filing, their financials, you know about this Google 12 billion annual revenue deal. We know about the anthropic partnerships. We also know OpenAI and Anthropic are coming confirmed. I think we were just speculating back then. So I guess to let you start, how are you thinking about what is gonna happen with the SpaceX IPO and the impact it is gonna have on the market? And has your perspective changed at all since our last stream?

SPEAKER_05 34:17

Yeah, I I think the now that we know all the numbers, you know, my my previous comment on the stream was that this is a really big liquidity event. Um, so putting it into perspective, over the last five years, uh crypto VC, which we know has generated a lot of pain for various charts, has raised um uh you know, a little like 130, 140 billion. And in the next year, we have about 200 billion of issuance. And in the SpaceX IPO specifically, it has a much higher allocation to retail investors than would be typical. Um and uh they're basically normally it's like five to ten percent for retail. For the SpaceX allocation, it's about 30%. Um, and so we're looking at a $25 billion uh slug, um, which is coming out. And just from a markets perspective, uh you have to pay attention to it because it's gonna suck the liquidity out of every speculative asset, um, regardless of how these things turn out. And uh I think what's interesting in markets right now, or previously, we were in a kind of overheated environment where people are like, you know, I'll think I think a really good example of this is the the telecom, like the SP telecom ETF. It's like a telecom ETF, right? But it has satellites in it, right? So it has some satellite companies in it. Yeah, and this thing ran like 120% in a year. And and this is a thing that, you know, I used to trade telcos, these are like the most boring companies in the world, and you're like, there's no reason why these things should moon. And so we went into this with like a lot of speculative excess, and I think some of that excess has been taken out of the market um in the past, you know, couple weeks. Uh, but but yeah, the the way, you know, if you kind of look at the the raw picture, you know, what I was saying before is like the market cannot go up, the crypto market cannot go up, um, risk assets cannot go up into $200 billion of equity issuance is in three of the hottest companies in the world, right? Like, like it's just really hard. Um, and uh now what I think of the equity issuance is that's like a very separate thing. And I think uh, you know, I watched the Elon Musk presentation with Jamie Diamond.

SPEAKER_04 36:39

Jamie Diamond, I saw that, yeah.

SPEAKER_05 36:40

He did an interview, and you're like, okay, like what are we actually, you know, what's the play, right? Like, so so it's like, how are you gonna like this thing's growing at 30% a year? Maybe, you know, before before all these like revenue pump deals came out, you know, it was maybe growing 15% a year, which is not an acceptable growth, you know, just putting it in perspective, Anthropic is going at least uh 500 to 800% a year. OpenAI is likely doing you know 500% a year, and these are coming out at like you know one half the valuation of SpaceX, which is growing at one-tenth the rate. So you're like, okay, like like what do you got, Elon? Like, what's the pump? And he's sort of like converged on the sun narrative.

SPEAKER_04 37:24

So he has converged on the sun. That was like the focus of Jamie Diamond was the sun is massive.

SPEAKER_05 37:30

Yeah, so so the sun meme, and actually it's funny because like you know, there's a Nick, Nick Land is the famous accelerationist who wrote uh uh you know um the CCRU stuff, and he was hanging out with Elon Musk. There's like a picture of this ghost-like being with Elon hanging out like via fire pit, and he went on podcast afterwards, he's like, Elon told me the sun is really big, and I'm like, fuck, man, like like where is he going with this? And and now we know where he's going with it because basically he he filed to launch a million satellites, and the thesis is that you can have data centers in space, and the structural argument is that you just have like this like pack of satellites that is cooled by space, right? So, so in the in the real economy, you have all this coolant, uh, you have all this logistics, um, and his assertion is that he's gonna launch 20% of the US power supply into space and have data centers in space, right? And so, so what you're paying this insane multiple for is uh, you know, and I I pulled up the the sort of like, you know, basically the reason why these uh anthropic deals and the reason why the Colossus deals are important is because it's foreshadowing for like what he's pitching, right? He's saying, look, I already was the visionary guy who got the Colossus data centers, and now everyone's renting them for me, paying me billions of dollars, and I'm gonna do it again, and this time I'm gonna do it in space. And there the the structural argument is that basically um you could make 300 to 600 billion dollars a year uh of like basically deflated because essentially the alternative is building out massive, unprecedented amounts of data centers in the United States, and people don't want these data centers by their houses, et cetera, et cetera. It drives up the power price. And so that's his thesis, right? And that's and so you when you're buying into this thing, you're buying like I think there's a really top investor who I won't name, but you know, he told me he's like the way I think about SpaceX is I don't know about SpaceX as a company, but as a stock, it's one hell of a stock.

SPEAKER_04 39:41

Oh my god, that is a sick line. I love that. Good Alex, always a fucking pleasure. Until the next, until the next IPO, man.

SPEAKER_05 39:50

Peace, brother.

SPEAKER_04 39:51

We'll uh get you back on. Thanks, man, for your time. Have a good one. That was lit. Yeah, I mean, I feel like that's what we needed, right? I feel like we needed, we've done 15 solo streams in a row. I feel like we needed a just full, like full stack discography of the world from another brain. We have a big week ahead of us. War escalation, SpaceX IPO, Jack on the stream. Friday's gonna be a big one. We have a lot to cover, we've a lot to get into, and that is what I'm going to do. Also, I don't say it enough. You see it in the background. Um, you see in the background, you see the top corner, you see in the right corner, you see it in every corner. I also got the little buttons. I don't know if I ever formally introduced, but man, shout out to Phantom, the ghost goaded partner of all time for making the streams possible. Shout out to Polymarket as well, the other most goaded partner of all time for making these streams possible. They love you. I love you, we love you, and I will catch you when I catch you. I'll see you when I see you.