How to Prepare for the SpaceX IPO - GoodAlexander Interview

Good Alexander returns two days before the SpaceX IPO, this time in his new role as the show's resident IPO specialist. The ex-Palantir, ex-telecom analyst breaks down why the IPO wave is a liquidity event nobody can ignore, Elon's data centers in space pitch, the trade he has on into Friday, and the shorting heuristic he learned from his first blowup. They cover the OpenAI and Anthropic listings on deck, the fake numbers debate, Fable 24 hours after launch, whether Bessent is in the order books, and the question that decides Palantir. Closes on the one consensus long he would fade.

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Boom, Mr. Good Alexander. Welcome back to the show. It's been a while, man. You got a new background. How you been, dude?

SPEAKER_01 0:07

I'm good. I'm in uh I'm at home in Omaha in a basement. So yeah, it's a different setting. Uh, how are you doing?

SPEAKER_00 0:14

Um, I hope you're enjoying home, man. I'm doing great, dude. I have you're on with uh David a couple months ago. We were talking Chip, which was a really fun one. And we got to get a little bit of SpaceX action on that stream, but it obviously wasn't the focus. And now we're a day, two days out. And I mean, man, a lot's happened since you came on. I think the main thing to start with is that there's just been a lot of new information on the IPO circuit since you first came out. We didn't really know that much about SpaceX other than the fact that it was coming. We now know more information on their filing, their financials, we know about this Google 12 billion annual revenue deal, we know about the anthropic partnerships. We also know OpenAI and Anthropic are coming confirmed. I think we were just speculating back then. So I guess to let you start, how are you thinking about what is gonna happen with the SpaceX IPO and the impact it is gonna have on the market? And has your perspective changed at all since our last stream?

SPEAKER_01 1:18

Yeah, I I think the now that we know all the numbers, you know, my my previous comment on the stream was that this is a really big liquidity event. Um, so putting it into perspective, over the last five years, uh crypto VC, which we know has generated a lot of pain for various charts, has raised um, you know, a little like 130, 140 billion. And in the next year, we have about 200 billion of issuance. And in the SpaceX IPO specifically, it has a much higher allocation to retail investors than would be typical. Um, and uh they're basically normally it's like five to ten percent for retail. For the SpaceX allocation, it's about 30%. Um, and so we're looking at a $25 billion uh slug, um, which is coming out. And just from a markets perspective, uh you have to pay attention to it because it's gonna suck the liquidity out of every speculative asset, um, regardless of how these things turn out. And uh I think what's interesting in markets right now, or previously, we were in a kind of overheated environment where people are like, you know, I'll think I think a really good example of this is the the telecom, like the SP telecom ETF. It's like a telecom ETF, right? But it has satellites in it, right? So it has some satellite companies in it. Yeah, and this thing ran like 120% in a year. And and this is a thing that, you know, I used to trade telcos, these are like the most boring companies in the world, and you're like, there's no reason why these things should moon. And so we went into this with like a lot of speculative excess, and I think some of that excess has been taken out of the market um in the past, you know, couple weeks. Uh, but but yeah, the the way, you know, if you kind of look at the the raw picture, you know, what I was saying before is like the market cannot go up, the crypto market cannot go up, um, risk assets cannot go up into $200 billion of equity issuance is in three of the hottest companies in the world, right? Like, like it's just really hard. Um, and uh now what I think of the equity issuance is that's like a very separate thing. And I think uh, you know, I watched the Elon Musk presentation with Jamie Diamond.

SPEAKER_02 3:40

Jamie Diamond, I saw that, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 3:41

You did an interview, and you're like, okay, like what are we actually, you know, what's the play, right? Like, so so it's like, how are you gonna like this thing's growing at 30% a year? Maybe, you know, before before all these like revenue pump deals came out, you know, it was maybe growing 15% a year, which is not an acceptable growth, you know, just putting it in perspective, Anthropic is going at least uh 500 to 800% a year. OpenAI is likely doing you know 500% a year, and these are coming out at like you know one half the valuation of SpaceX, which is growing at one-tenth the rate. So you're like, okay, like like what do you got, Elon? Like, what's the pump? And he sort of like converged on the sun narrative.

SPEAKER_00 4:24

So he has converged on the sun. That was like the focus of Jamie Diamond was the sun is massive.

SPEAKER_01 4:30

Yeah, so so the sun meme, and actually it's funny because like you know, there's a Nick, Nick Land is the famous accelerationist who wrote uh uh you know um the CCRU stuff, and he was hanging out with Elon Musk. There's like a picture of this ghost-like being with Elon hanging out like via fire pit, and he went on podcast afterwards, he's like, Elon told me the sun is really big, and I'm like, fuck, man, like like where is he going with this? And and now we know where he's going with it because basically he he filed to launch a million satellites, and the thesis is that you can have data centers in space, and the structural argument is that you just have like this like pack of satellites that is cooled by space, right? So, so in the in the real economy, you have all this coolant, uh, you have all this logistics, um, and his assertion is that he's gonna launch 20% of the US power supply into space and have data centers in space, right? And so, so what you're paying this insane multiple for is uh, you know, and I I pulled up the the sort of like, you know, basically the reason why these uh anthropic deals and the reason why the Colossus deals are important is because it's foreshadowing for like what he's pitching, right? He's saying, look, I already was the visionary guy who got the Colossus data centers, and now everyone's renting them for me, paying me billions of dollars, and I'm gonna do it again, and this time I'm gonna do it in space. And there the the structural argument is that basically um you could make 300 to 600 billion dollars a year uh of like basically deflated because essentially the alternative is building out massive, unprecedented amounts of data centers in the United States, and people don't want these data centers by their houses, et cetera, et cetera. It drives out the power price. And so that's his thesis, right? And that's and so you when you're buying into this thing, you're buying like I think there's a really top investor who I won't name, but you know, he told me he's like the way I think about SpaceX is I don't know about SpaceX as a company, but as a stock, it's one hell of a stock.

SPEAKER_00 6:42

Oh my god, that is a sick line. I love that. So how how do you that was so good? Fuck also, I feel like the Sun thing is new. Like this is is a new narrative. Tell me this first. Um, what if what do you, good Alexander, think of SpaceX as a stock? And roughly do you have a plan on what you're gonna do when IPO is live?

SPEAKER_01 7:09

Yeah, I'm short every telecom stock right now. And explain that. Okay, so everyone's long every space beta into the SpaceX IPO. And you cannot have better space beta than what Elon is going to deliver. It's impossible. Like, you know, essentially the the thesis is that all the space trades just go into hardcore full reverso mode. Like, that's my my very normal.

SPEAKER_00 7:33

Like it's it's just too lucrative, it swallows everything. It's like, how can how can Aster go up when you have hyperliquid type of thing?

SPEAKER_01 7:40

And it's also just like the amount that the bankers are getting paid, right? Like the reason why JB Jamie Diamond is interviewing Elon Musk is not because he likes Elon Musk, it's because JP Morgan Investment Banking Division is minting on this IPO, right? And that's why he's fast tracking it into the Nasdaq. There's like, I think I I don't know what the speed is. I think it's it's something like a three-month fast track. Uh uh, I don't I don't know the exact terms of it. The SP refused to do it. They tried to like they they try to pressure the SP to do it, and then like, and so but you kind of uh the the the theory that I have is that Elon is the greatest equity salesman of our time, and you don't want to bet against his ability to just completely dominate the space narrative. And the thing about the space narrative is that it's completely unfalsifiable, right? Because it's gonna take him quite a lot of time to build um uh the products. You know, the other thing that I I I was originally bearish on was I was like, dude, what the what what is this cursor deal? Why are you paying 60 billion for cursor? And then uh the thing that changed my mind or like got me more excited, you know, I I use a lot of AI coding tools, and there's uh something that they cooked uh with you know Colossus. Uh it's called Composer 2.5 fast. And it's sort of they've started training new coding models uh with all of cursors proprietary data. And I thought, okay, like this is a meme. This is something you're doing because Grok basically failed, yeah, and you're just trying to play catch up. And I'm like, this is a pretty good model. You know, it's not, it's not uh, and when I say good, it's it's nuanced. It's like Claude is the great designer, engineer, mathematician. Yes, uh, Codex is the reliable tank that just like gets shit done, but cursor is just composer 2.5 fast is just ridiculously fast. Like it's it's it's like you can you can analyze you if if you're analyzing uh cryptocurrency or a new crypto protocol or a bit tensor amendment, you can iterate with it at the speed of thought, right? You can just literally be like, okay, what is this amendment exactly? Like, what does it do in the code base? And it'll just be like it does this, it does, you know, it create a chart for me that shows me visually what this and it'll do it. And it's like, whereas with with when you're interacting with uh Claude or you're interacting with GPT, you're like, tell make me a chart, and then you go and get a coffee, and 10 minutes later the chart is done, and it totally ruins your flow. And so, and so it's just super fast, it's super good, and that really changed some of my like before I was just like, okay, this is like the end, you know, this is because because it's like uh, you know, 33% pumped revenue growth thing, trading at, you know, 99 times sales, uh, you know, good luck at 1.7 trillion, uh, with all these like insider party deals between XAI, like jamming XAI into SpaceX at the last minute is just like like at first I was like, what what are you doing? And now I'm like, okay, what you're doing is that you're telling a story about AI data centers in space. And that's the story, and it's a good story, and Elon can sell it, right? And it's like, it's like, do I think the stock is gonna puke when it IPOs? No, I don't. But do I think it's gonna completely suck the liquidity out of everything that's possibly or tangentially related to that story that he's telling? Like, yes, I do. That's sort of what I my opinion on SpaceX.

SPEAKER_00 11:10

And why short telecom specifically?

SPEAKER_01 11:14

I I know the stocks the best. I um used to be a telecom analyst.

SPEAKER_00 11:19

Uh I've never heard anyone say that.

SPEAKER_01 11:22

Yeah, well, I was on a TMTC team, so I I covered Verizon and T-Mobile and you know SoftBank and I traded telco stocks. And I just know that these management teams are clowns, like they're shareholder destructive. Like, no key, like you can't buy uh well, I I'm confident that they're not going to do anything good with the influx of of of capital. Like that's sort of like the the the thesis. I started ramping back up on them because I started building this position um uh just to kind of see to make sure that I'm not like that T-Mobile isn't growing at like you know 100% a year, just just to make sure that I'm not like missing something. And it doesn't seem that I'm missing anything. If anything, like like let's say SpaceX is right and they launch a million satellites, like Elon suddenly has like everyone by the ball. Like, you know, it's like if SpaceX is right, if let's say SpaceX is right, now he has everyone by the balls, like from internet, from AI. Like, let's say there's there's AI compute on your phone, and then Elon can beam it from space, and then like what are you gonna do as T-Mobile, right? Like you're just you're wrecked, right? You pay whatever price. So it's sort of like I'm like, that's that's sort of how I was thinking about it. It's very much a a trade because I wanted to have this on in some some fashion. Um, and I also have like a ton of long telecom exposure because essentially SK will so SK Mobile uh and um you know is one of the big early investors in Anthropic. And then SoftBank is like a big invest, which is also a lot of people don't even realize that SoftBank has a telecom business, but it's a it's a telecom in Japan and they have a monster stake in both ARM and Open AI. And so my other IPO exposures happen to be long telecom stocks. So I already so I already was asked to to short them uh because I was like, I want to get rid of this um this risk. This I don't want to be long telecom stocks because I don't just I just don't have a view on the telecom sector. But then I started looking into it and I'm like, wait a second, why are these things up triple digits year on year? And you're like, oh okay, all right, got it.

SPEAKER_00 13:26

That is a I did not think about like this at all. I told the stream you're our uh your IPO specialist now, I think is gonna be your assumed role. I did not think about the telecom thing at all, but it makes a lot of sense. It you also can't compete. I also like the way you thought about it, where a lot of these narratives are far out, and so you kind of have to take him at his word until it gets built or it doesn't, and you spend so much time in anticipation of it, the price action happens anyways, whether he builds it or not. It's sort of like irrefutable, dude.

SPEAKER_01 14:00

Tesla, I mean, like I just you know, I've I've followed Tesla my entire career, and I've just seen everyone die shorting this thing, right? Like, like there's generations of people that I see they're like, Elon's not gonna deliver the cars, self-driving isn't gonna be a thing for the next 10 years, and you're like, you're absolutely right, but also the stock is up 300%, and now you're out of a job. So, like, good, like you just can't fade it. And like the thing is he's gonna be right eventually. That that's the thing about Elon is like you're like, okay, like he's gonna be right eventually. It might be 10 years later, but in the meanwhile, retail is gonna keep buying his stock because he's the best equity promoter of our of our generation.

SPEAKER_00 14:42

Man, what do you think about the prod? So, so one of my the first thing I thought about when I saw SpaceX IPO is short Tesla because we're crypto guys, and the two stories we know very well are low float high FTV and Dev launched a second token. And I'm like dev launched a second token, I'm short Tesla. And then immediately after Tesla starts hitting red candles, and then the leaks, merger, rumors of a merger, SpaceX acquiring Tesla merger, merger, merger, and then everyone's terrified to short this thing because at any moment, you just get like you said, you just get blown out because Elon says, fuck it, I'll break some rule, whatever, I'll make it happen, merges Tesla and SpaceX, and then you get blown out. How do you think of the prospect of that?

SPEAKER_01 15:30

I don't like short. The only the only way I would ever short Tesla would be if if Trump does a deal with the Chinese and we get the Chinese uh uh electric vehicles in the US, which are by most standards like market leaders in terms of cost and just consumer experience. So that then I would short Tesla. Uh I don't want to short uh Tesla. Um, I originally thought that would be a good idea uh because I was like, yeah, the the the dev second token, but then I was like, why would I short a robot, like why would I short the only liquid like liquid expression of robotics and self-driving in in public markets other than Google when I could short some like 70-year-old CEO telecom company that's growing revenues at like 6% a year and the stock is up like 180%, right? So I was like, I was like, like generally, like when I short things, I try not to short things that could invent the cure for cancer. That's like my my one of my heuristics. And I learned it, you know, I learned it the hard way because like my first big trading blowup ever, um, I was short plug power. It's like this, it's this amazing stock because it's it's it like it shouldn't exist. Uh it it it kind of has it's like an altcoin that's pumped, you know, 800% multiple times on hydrogen fuel that it never delivers, right? It never actually delivers anything, it just says that it's going to, but it always pumps. And uh I was like, this is going to zero. And then the CEO left and I tripled down and I'm like, all right, he left, it's a fraud, it's completely over. And then the market was like, Well, if the CEO left, like we actually don't like this CEO, and and they might have uh, and I didn't realize that a regulator didn't like the CEO either, and the stock went up like 600% in a straight line. And that was my first trading blow-up. Um, and and I like did this, you know, there's like this this ritual you do called five whys, where you're like, you know, why did this happen? And what it really boiled down to is I didn't, I wasn't a I never I I wasn't humble enough to be like, okay, if this has been a scam for 20 years, what stops it from being a scam for 23 years? You know, there's nothing, right? And it and and they have a track record of actually pumping 300%. And so generally with shorts, uh in crypto, right now there's like no good shorts, right? Because uh everything's market cap is so destroyed. And in equities, there are actually a lot of good shorts, and a lot of them are like these dyno companies that have gone on like generational runs, right? You're like like even Intel, um, you know, when when Intel was just going limit up, yeah, you know, and and and David Gills and I were in Intel because we were memeing like early on, like we're pretty early on Intel.

SPEAKER_00 18:15

I remember David Gills being very early on Intel.

SPEAKER_01 18:18

Yeah, because we were we were we're joking like Intel inside, like it was just like a meme, right? And then like it started pumping. Trump took the stake, it didn't really go for quite some time. And then when it did go, and you like really zoned in on the quarterly revenue, you're like, the stock is up like 200%, and quarterly revenue is up like nine percent. It's it's it's like you know, at least with the memory stocks, you're like, okay, like you know, you're growing at triple digits, this is insane. Like the compounder bros can kind of make a straight-faced argument that if it grows 200% a year every year for the next 10 years, like maybe it's it's it's reasonable. But then like with some of these stocks, you're like you're growing revenue at like eight percent a year. It's not like it's not like it's not like you're doubling or something. So so those are the ones where I'm a lot more comfortable uh betting against them. And and with Tesla, you're like, dude, I don't want to bet against AI. Like, come on.

SPEAKER_00 19:12

You know, this is this is like a uh I kind of stole this from Flood, but we came to the thesis on our own with longing oil. And it's like if you're long oil, you are actively longing an asset that the entire world is incentivized to see go down. Good luck. It's similar to like, why would I short a stock that could cure cancer or like solve artificial general intelligence at any moment because you're just gonna get wiped out? Okay. Dust settles on SpaceX IPO. Um then you are immediately thinking about the ones on the horizon. And I don't know if this is a terrible analogy, but we saw Broadcom earnings like a week ago, where and by the way, I mean, if we've topped for the summer, that was the first double.

SPEAKER_01 19:55

The fact you're looking at Broadcom earnings, by the way, it means like we've just we've just like, what have we done?

SPEAKER_00 20:00

I know who watched this, it's gonna get worse. What I'm about to say is gonna get worse. Broadcom's earnings happens, they they double beat, but it like they don't beat by enough, it goes down like 20%, drags everything with it. And then today, same thing happens, like Oracle beats, it doesn't beat by enough, drags everything down with it. And so, is there a scenario in which like SpaceX beats or it launches and it launches green, but it doesn't launch green enough or pump hard enough, and then everybody kind of panics. Oh god, there's not enough liquidity, it's sucked from all these other sectors, space is down, telecom is down, maybe semis are down a little bit on the speculative hop all the money, and then you're immediately looking at open AI and anthropic. Like, uh, we don't have the liquidity for this. So, how do you think about the dust settling after SpaceX and then the performance of SpaceX on how you would think about anthropic and open AI?

SPEAKER_01 20:52

Uh yeah, I mean if SpaceX, if SpaceX actually tanks, that would be horrendously bearish. And and I believe that's probably why people are doing such large deals with SpaceX, right? Because Elon probably called them and was like, hey, like if my stock trades down, your IPO is dead. Uh right. So so it's like everyone's incentivized to make this thing go up. And and the great thing about the sun story is that it'll just be Elon running around saying how big the sun is for nine months, and like um, you know, that's an unfalsifiable bull case, which is his specialty. Um, and it and it has some like solid physics arguments, right? Like, like because Elon's an autist, like he's figured this out where he's like, he's like, okay, actually, structurally, there's no reason why you wouldn't build a data center in space, right? Like, like so it's like this. Like, um, I think I'm not I'm not bare, I don't I don't think that that these other companies are gonna collapse. It's more like that is gonna suck up the liquidity on so much other stuff. Um I think that's the cleaner, the cleaner expression. And then regarding the other two IPOs, they're very different stories and they Have uh very different kind of risk profiles, right? Like um investors view in the current market view anthropic as this de-risked enterprise bet that reported this like made up profitability number, but then when you dig into it, it's like deeply free cash flow negative. Nonetheless, they say that they're gonna become free cash flow positive in 2027, which is like a typical like enterprise IPO story where you're like, we're burning money right now, but if we have our net retention number above blah, it's like it's all enterprise, and open AI is like the scary one, right? Because like open AI is like, dude, you're raising a you know, you're gonna run out of money if you don't do this IPO because they're burning so much money. Yeah, and I think like funnily enough, like open AI is the one I'm most optimistic on. Um, because I think so, so what people don't understand about so actually, you know, in my past life, I was like a uh a founder and I used to trade Amazon stock really actively. And back when I I was at the buy side, you know, essentially what happened was everyone was in Amazon because of AWS and they all marked the retail business at zero. And I was like, dude, in like literally in China right now, the retail businesses of these e-commerce players are crushing it because they have ads. And right now, Amazon doesn't have ads. And right now, like as of Q1 2026, there are 300 million active shoppers on Amazon, and it's a it's a $69 billion a year run rate advertising business. So this this business that they thought was worth zero, like back in you know a decade ago, is actually just this like money printing machine because it because it has an advertising engine. And and OpenAI has three times the number of users as uh you know Amazon. Uh, it has 900 million chat DAUs, and the and currently the market narrative and the market consensus is that Sam Altman's an idiot because he has 900 million DAUs and he's losing money on the DAUs, and it's literally the same exact like it just it's it's actually painful to watch it because I'm like, it's literally the exact same thing that caused everyone to be sidelined in Amazon for like to like like a solid 10-year run. Um, just because they didn't understand that that that it's really hard to get 900 million users, and it's like appealing to normies is not easy. And um Altman's done a good job, and and I think like basically the the thing I'm I'm really keyed in, or the contrarian like angle with open AI is they had this six-week pilot on open AI ads that printed 100 million with like massive oversubscription, and they're targeting 2.4 uh billion uh of of revenue, which is very small relative to where I think this thing could go. Like, I personally think that if open AI really focuses, um I think that you know, Bing, for example, by the way, has like a 5% market share in search, and like Google is like a complete uh monopoly on search. And open the open AI instant 5.5 instant search experience, if you use it, is really, really good, right? And and and because the reason why it's so good is because it can consume 10 pages at once and it can tell you what's on those 10 pages without you having to open 10 different sites and and click through everyone's ads. And so, so like basically I'm just like like right now, the market consensus is that Anthropic is the the the killer, uh, it's the winner. Uh the fable model or mythos as it's called is excellent. Um, and you know, basically their story is that they're gonna become free cash flow break-even and that Sam Altman's a moron and that he's he's gonna go bankrupt along with Oracle, right? Like that's the story. Yeah. Uh and so yeah, I actually think the story is probably a little different than what people think. Like, I I'm a big open AI believer. That's my that's my IPO preference.

SPEAKER_00 25:59

Okay, give me one second to flip these uh headphone batteries. That was a sick fucking take. I want to ask you about uh I want to ask you about anthropic and everything that's happened there, and then we can go back to open AI. Can you first touch briefly on the fake numbers comment and like what that means, the implications of that, how that plays out?

SPEAKER_01 26:22

Well, okay, when I say fake numbers, if you read anthropic press releases and even if you have AI models interpret anthropic press releases, you would probably come to the conclusion that they're free cash flow positive. Uh, when in fact they're disclosing a non-gap operating profit metric that is made up. So it's it's it's common in enterprise businesses where they're talking about, and it's an important number because like the story they want to tell is that we can serve these models profitably on a unit economic basis. Now, that doesn't mean that they're capex, is it? Like the problem is that okay, cool, bro, you can serve this one model profitably. But you know, one way to look at it from an equity analyst perspective is like, do you have to spend the money in capex or not? Can you cut your capex or not? If you're Coca-Cola and you cut your capex, people are still going to drink Coca-Cola, right? So you can cut your capex and no one gives a shit. If someone launches a new product, it doesn't matter. If you're anthropic, you cannot cut your capital expenditures and expect your unit economic profitability to last because you will get wrecked in the next model upgrade, right? So so the reason I say it's misleading is because they're characterizing their capital expenditure as a one-off when really I would say it's structural to their core business in such a way that it is effectively an RD expense, right? So, so so in my opinion, that's why it's misleading to say that they're unit economic positive, because if they stop training models, those unit economics would go off a cliff. And then they're like, you know, so it's so I just think it's bullshit. And they uh, you know, that said, like they have structurally better margins than open AI because almost all of their revenue is from enterprise. Whereas, whereas OpenAI is like it's a different story, right?

SPEAKER_00 28:15

Got it. And so I guess follow-up on anthropic is 24 hours out from Fable launch. And it is, I mean, I don't know, most controversial model since like the original Gemini, like woke launch. What's yeah, what I what is your take on the whole situation, on how good it is, and then this like fuck anthropic, they're dangerous narrative as well.

SPEAKER_01 28:40

Um, okay, the model is excellent. Uh, I think a lot of the takes that it's not good are are probably misinformed. Um, you know, originally I was like, I was getting upset because it was refusing to do uh some security analysis on uh uh a feature I just shipped because I was like, okay, like I have this wallet integration, I want to like check it, and it's like, no, I won't do that. And you're like, fuck, man, like what am I paying the thing? But then, but then you like learn how to prompt it, and you are like, you actually learn, for example, that it's allergic to making uh security mistakes and will actively find security mistakes in the repo as it's working and be like, by the way, there's this one thing that could be like an XSS exploit, and I'm gonna fix like we should you should fix that. And so it's like you're like, as you work with it, you're like, this thing's really good. Um, additionally, you know, one of the metrics that I I I like, well, I don't know, internally I write a lot of code, and so it's like, how many bugs did uh Opus 4.8 find in GPT 5.5's code? Not many. How many bugs does mytho or sorry, Fable find in 5.5's code? A lot. Like it in in the and then when you go and you report those bugs to 5.5 and you're like, okay, like, do you agree that of this assessment is always like yes, like it's basically right, right? So it's it's it's kind of like um Fable is the the alpha model in terms of just uh uh deployment. And so I think that's just real. I actually don't like anthropic. I I don't I don't I remember um but but you know at the end of the day, like you have to just respect the fact that they have a really solid model and you can't pretend like it doesn't matter that I don't like them at the end of the day, the model is the model.

SPEAKER_00 30:27

So you understand the economics probably a lot deeper than I do, but it feels like I mean the expenses here are are are are racking up, and it feels like we're exiting the subsidy era on compute for consumers. And I've seen like there's all these headlines like Microsoft is no longer really looking to use anthropic, they're spending way too too much money. There was that Uber CEO went on Invest like the Best podcast, and he was like flexing this gargantuan number that the company had spent on like anthropic credits and was saying they're basically done using it, or all engineers are capped. And then Tulip King from uh our our our team made this tweet today, which Mothko tweeted it. I thought it was pretty funny. But he says, I look forward to our Chinese brothers liberating the knowledge from within Fable V and selling it to me at five percent the cost and 2x the speed. How much of a I don't know how much of a problem is this gonna be for these IPOs and then the usage of these models going forward? If it's just like this forever cat and mouse of uh American lab ships, incredible model, China distills or however they do it, open sources at like five percent of the speed or five percent of the the the the cost. Like how how big of a problem is is is end of subsidy era here?

SPEAKER_01 31:45

So uh this is why I like open AI more than anthropic. And so, and so so the basic my basic premise is that uh right now, if you wanted to run Fable uh in a single agent, let's say a typical engineer runs two agents on average, you can pay attention to two agents. Um, that costs about $100 an hour. Uh that's expensive. That means that you're uh you're you're dropping a couple hundred grand a year, you're basically dropping a full-time engineer uh for using this model. And then the question is, what's the ROI on doing that? Um, the ROI for most applications is tied to the actual ROI of software. Because what are you doing with that stuff? Are you you're building software? And then how much software demand is there going to be on a forward-looking basis if everybody can customize their own software? It's gonna be lower, right? Like, like um, you know, if if I can build my own software, I don't need to pay for yours. If I can build my own video game, I don't need to pay for yours. Um, so what you're doing is you have a uh in enterprise, you have this like nasty situation where the models keep getting more expensive and the value of delivering those models keeps going down because essentially the models cannibalize their own end market. Whereas in consumer, the thing that I like is I'm like, Google is already this like monopolistic behemoth that just prints money, and everybody talks to Chat GPT all day about what they want to buy, their feelings, and everything. And so to me, consumer is like a much more greenfield uh market because you're like, okay, I already know, having run ads, that people don't think about product skews. You know, they they that when people are looking for uh a coffee mug, a lot of the times they're looking for a cute Christmas coffee mug. They're not looking for you know this brand's coffee mug with with this decoration. They want someone to kind of help them think through their purchase decision. And large language models are really, really good at that. Uh, because they'll be like, you know, these are the top 10 Christmas coffee mugs, and you know, this is my preference, and people like that. And so I I'm very bullish on the kind of which is contrarian, because right now everyone's like, oh, enterprise is the only thing. And I'm like, okay, we've used Uber, right? I use Uber a lot. You probably do too. Is the app actually better than it was two years ago? I'm like, I can't tell, man.

SPEAKER_00 34:15

It's more expensive, probably.

SPEAKER_01 34:16

Right. And so it's like, okay, they they just burned X amount of dollars on Enthron, like, you know, it's like same thing with Salesforce. They're like like 45% of our app is written by AI. You're like, cool. Like, is the app actually better? It's like, uh, you know, it's it's kind of like you know, it's it's maybe maybe there's some new features. Uh, and so that's the thing I don't like about the enterprise um AI side is that it it's just it's just replacing a lot of software. Now, now there are like like I think the exciting stuff is uh the biology, you know, uh Dario Amade is like a biologist, and the thing that I'll say about Fable that's like exciting, uh especially in cryptography, we saw the Zcash hack. Um, I think Zcash is like a really good example where you have a bunch of Israeli geniuses who are employed by Zcash, and they're the only people who actually understand Orchard, right? It's a very complex cryptography thing. It came out in 2022. It had bugs in the code sitting there for years that nobody was able to even like find because they just fund it, like it's it's genuinely hard to understand, and it's very, very expensive to hire people who can understand it. Now, that's like the really exciting thing on Anthropic is that it can understand it very well. Um, and it can find the specific problems with it, um, and then it can actually improve those algorithms. Um, and so so yeah, I mean, like especially in things like privacy protocols or really complex tech or even emerging tech like biotech research or mathematics research, you can be more white-pilled because you're like, okay, maybe the end markets can grow a lot because they'll really move the needle on innovation and discovery and making better privacy technology and it's innovation, but you're like, okay, that's gonna be a very small percentage of sales relative to these enterprise buyers like you Uber. And in the in the Uber case, it's like the app isn't better than it was last year, but they're spending $20 billion. And you're like, okay, like the ROI is probably not there.

SPEAKER_00 36:20

Do you think we're about to have this explosion of drug discovery? And are you aping bio stocks and pharmaceutical stocks and things of that nature?

SPEAKER_01 36:29

You know, it's funny because this is like one of the, you know, there's a a good expression. I think it applies to me. Being early is indistinct from being wrong.

SPEAKER_02 36:36

Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 36:37

Um uh I did write, you know, a couple of years ago this thing called the Blackprint Manifesto. And and my thesis was that, you know, essentially the scary thing about AI is that if you had a company that pulled ahead or a uh AI algorithm that pulled ahead uh in biotech research, and it could deliver you uh vaccines or things that you couldn't get elsewhere. You know, you can't the only thing you can you can't buy with uh money is time. And imagine if there was a company that was able to say, you can be young, you know, you we can keep you young if you work for us, right? It's like it's like then you're you're operating on a level of monetary value. When people I when for me, the permanent underclass is is actually the scary version of the permanent underclass is more of the Gattaca vision, where Gattaca is an old movie, you should you should watch it. Never seen it.

SPEAKER_00 37:27

Gatta classic.

SPEAKER_01 37:29

Yeah. Um, and you know, it's basically a society where half of the society is uh genetically engineered, and there's two brothers, and one of them is genetically engineered, and one of them's not, yeah, the other's not, and they're like these awesome scenes where they're like swimming in the water, and the non-genetically engineered guy like beats the genetically engineered one, and it's just like it's it's a good, it's a good movie. Um, is in the 80s, right? So people have been thinking about this for a really long time, and uh, I do think it's it's a very powerful narrative. The problem is that um, and actually a lot of crypto people are very, very active in this. Uh so uh you know, Fred Ursham uh pivoted out of crypto into line.

SPEAKER_00 38:12

Brian's doing this, isn't he?

SPEAKER_01 38:13

Brian Johnson Armstrong. Brian Brian Armstrong, excuse me, Coinbase. He's he's running a big uh uh fundraise. Um yeah, a lot of a lot of early crypto people like Dovey Wan are are super longevity nuts, and and they uh yeah, I think there is some sort of interesting, and actually Vitalik is hanging out with the the human genetic engineering guys, like ex-girlfriend. Like, I don't know what's up with that. She was posting photos with all this. Um yeah, there there's this aggressive um overlap between crypto and longevity. Uh and I think like the what do I think of it? You know, I'll I'll give you my my take. You know, um if you look at Brian Johnson's biggest investment, it's Ginkgo BioWorks. It's a tick ticker DNA. Down 99%. It's like it's like it's it's it's a down-only chart. He publicly bioworks holdings, he publicly showed it, it's an ARC investments, and it's $500 million market cap. Down only tech, right? It used to be massive, now it collapsed. And uh what you find when you talk to ultra high net worth individuals who are investing in the biotech space is you're like you you think that longevity would be a good investment, but the reality is that longevity historically has been a very bad investment. Um and the reason is actually pretty interesting, it's because when you're let's say there's a new startup in Panama that can do something with you know ocular degeneration, apparently Eric Schmidt will will have already bought that company before you even like had any interest in investing it. And so so so all the good stuff gets acquired, the stuff that's that's really good gets invested in at a at a price invariant multiple because the the ultra-rich care about their health more than they care about their returns. And so when you're competing with with with uh others who have no price target, uh like if you're a return-focused investor and they don't give a shit about what they pay for things, you're gonna you lose money.

SPEAKER_00 40:22

You're losing, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 40:22

So so so that's sort of like the problem with longevity investments and the reason why longevity funds haven't done well in the past. Now, that's like that that said, like Demi Hasebus, uh, you know, the the Google guy is like basically raised billions of dollars. Uh and and I mean I would take that seriously if you can get access to it. I think I'd rather I'd rather be exposed to like the stuff that's coming out of the labs. Oh, like Google or you know, anthropic, they're gonna do something in bio because you know that's Dario's background.

SPEAKER_00 40:55

Yeah, yeah, he's a biologist, right?

SPEAKER_01 40:56

And so so I would be kind of like, okay, like if I can get preferential deal flow to those, I would be a a buyer. Um, you know, there's uh I I'm less certain about you know longevity as a uh uh I I think Brian Johnson is a bit of a cautionary tale, right? It's like if if longevity investing worked well, why is he selling olive oil, right? It's like it's it's sort of like he's doing it because it didn't work well, right? It's it's uh it's a really tough game and it's it's an insider market. Um and so my my bias with like ArcG or biotech stocks is to stay stay far away from them. I'm not a domain expert. I know people who are domain experts. It's actually like a very useful. There's a really excellent biotech portfolio manager in Puerto Rico, and I had this like I had this one night out with him, and there are a bunch of crypto guys who are into longevity stuff and peptides and biotech, and they started rattling off their investments. And then he's like, Oh yeah, that one went through a clinical trial that was statistically invalidated, and you know, that one. It's like the level of in the weeds that really good biotech investors are is truly frightening. Uh, and you don't want to be in the trenches with them by default. Um, and so so yeah, I I stay, I stay away um from that. Um uh just just personally uh is an investment. I I would change my mind, I think, if I had an order of magnitude more money.

SPEAKER_00 42:30

Yeah, that was honestly well thought out take. Thank you for that. One uh I gotta get one more rant out of you. And you I think last time you were here, I told you about how we were covering geopolitics and war for the first time, and we were talking about this like headline terrorism concept where Trump is like clearly in the books and he's clearly timing headlines around futures open and market close and things like this. And since then, we've had the Intel run, we've had Go Out and Buy Adell, we've had IBM with the quantum investment and just general like pumping of IBM, we've had Jensen Marvell, we had Jensen QCom, which is Qualcomm, which didn't go very well, and we've basically went from Trump is timing strikes around market close to Trump and Jensen or like prime Shaq and Kobe on selling stocks and picking winners. And I I feel like it's just devolved another order of magnitude or maybe multiple step functions further into this is just like that was bizarre, and to this is the new norm and this is how we play. And I don't know, have you what do you think about it? Like how where where are you with playing this game and and the evolution of this game that seems to have happened?

SPEAKER_01 43:54

Um yeah, I mean, I think the I'll make a controversial take. uh that we can play in the future. I believe that the uh I believe that there's been intervention in U.S. equities in U.S. equity futures. Um and I think in the future administrations will look back at some of the actions taken in the oil futures market as well as the SP futures market and ask what the hell is going on. And I think Scott Bissent is actively involved. That's one of my takes uh there there's some there's very very abnormal price action in the market and Trump is myopically focused on the stock market in a way that given the portfolio of his behavior that it wouldn't shock me if he was like if he called Bissent and said I'm going into Iran make sure the SP goes up right like like that's something Trump would say like you just you've lit you've seen him for eight years. We know what he's like um so so that's I do think the market is kind of controlled by insiders. I don't think it's obvious that uh it's monetizable. Um so I mean I think the class the canonical example is uh Hegzeth buying large position in defense stocks that then collapsed uh after he bought them so it's like um is there egregious insider trading yes are they CTOing equities yes is it worth trying to predict what they're going to CTO next uh potentially um uh but like I know a lot of people are building uh polymarket insider uh detection systems because they're trying to basically identify um who in the Trump administration knows when certain things are happening. So there's like insider trading wallet tracking and that's popular. Uh I don't know I I know a lot of people who've tried doing that and um so I feel like I'm being too bearish on like money making activities. Like yes there is definitely a way to profit off of this and it absolutely is relevant um in terms of like the government and the political environment because the average American looks at this and is like these are rich guys you know playing dice with the global economy and I think that's politically unpopular fully agree.

SPEAKER_00 46:16

Also for what it's worth it feels like this is such a mychocasm of what's actually happening. But like I remember there was this the two month period where we were doing B finance smart chain basically on-chain meme coin season and the whole game was which coin is CZ gonna engage with next and it would go up for like five minutes and then if you bought it after you had to have held it before he showed it or else you lost money. That wasn't exactly the case with with Intel but Intel pumped more than Dell which pumped more than IBM which would probably pump more than the next one and the next one and the next one what are the imp okay so let's let's just like assume I like the take because I agree with you. I don't know what I I maybe I don't have as much proof but of Bess and Trump very clearly in the order books.

SPEAKER_01 47:00

Why do you think that that's happening like what did you see that made you think that's happening but more importantly what are the implications of that like what does it mean for the future of capital markets and how you think about trading especially as a retail investor in the US uh yeah I mean is basically just uh the the market like you know there was a meme like actually I think base 16Z started as like anything bad happens the market is down 0.3% yeah and yeah I mean there were just like massive buying volume like you know normally if you trade war markets uh if you have traded them for a while for example in Ukraine even in 2022 or even in COVID you have this really gappy market there's not a guy just showing up and buying the dip like in massive size especially if there's like geopolitical escalation right like it's not a thing um and that's exactly what happened like and so I'm like okay there's someone who's buying unlimited amounts of SP features down 0.5% such that we literally can't go down on any bad news and that person is probably a Soros trained trader who was trained by Stan Druckenmiller who said I like it when markets go up on good news so it's probably literally Scott Bissent who was trained by Stan Druckenmiller who told him exactly the exact phrase that he would need to like it so I'm I'm just like looking at this this price action and I'm like this is nothing like the price action in any other risk-off geopolitical event I've seen uh Scott Besent has been trained by a guy who said that the market loves reading into bad news and the market going up and Trump has basically no respect for you know the rule of law and so I'm like okay you combine those things together and you're like okay what's the easiest explanation for the market not dropping you're like well like the easiest explanation is the obvious one uh um so so that's sort of a conspiracy theory I I think we'll see in a couple uh years I think there'll be investigations into this period that will like you know be more uh concrete um but um yeah I think in terms of what it means for markets I I think it's very uh I think probably people overestimate I I I guess I have a I have a relevant take I guess uh I think there are some stocks which are embodiments of the of the legitimacy of this administration. Um one of those stocks is Palantir um and you know I think uh Peter Thiel fleeing to Argentina and uh uh JD Vance being on the wrong side of things and and like Democrats generally kind of doing quite well I I think I think there's probably I think there's probably a set of stocks that are kind of Trump beta that that maybe won't do as well. And unfortunately that hurts um it's not great for you know one of the things that scares me in the current market in crypto is uh the odds specifically on the the the Clarity Act. Because I'm like like stablecoin vault like you know USDT and USDC have basically flatlined supply growth when they were supposed to be adding hundreds of billions right Scott Bissent's big plan was like 10 trillion right yeah and you're like okay why is it stuck at 180 B like like circles trading like fucking death and you're like okay you're not able to get this Clarity Act thing passed which is your Hallmark legislation like why isn't the stable coin volume going up right and and and I'm like okay it's probably because people are worried about the treatment of stable coins damn and and I'm like that's not great right it's it's like Howard Lutnick uh is you know uh got this massive tether equity stake uh through his son's business and which is the auditor of tether's reserves and you're just like okay like there are all these businesses that are at the intersection of Trump capital markets and the state and it's spending right it's like we know what they are it's like Circle, Palantir, Tether, right? Ripple you know there's like a series of sort of like these entities that are are based on this regime continuing. And it's kind of like you're like okay like I hope that for the sake of crypto that that they like play the political actually Ripple's really good at this like where they play like you know Chris Larson I think is just autistically obsessed with climate change. So um you know he kind of like they naturally play it well because they they've been like in bed with all these like left-wing politicians for a long time uh but you know there's a lot of gap risk for actually anthropic and palantir I think is like the most relevant thing to this IPO discussion. A lot of people are not paying attention to the language that Anthropic is using with regards to its partnership with Goldman Sachs.

SPEAKER_02 52:04

Okay.

SPEAKER_01 52:04

Um they're like we're dropping forward deployed anthropic engineers uh into these banks and you know uh that's Palantir's name for what they're deploying into the banks and so it's like anthrop and and by the way basically um he called Dario implicitly retarded right so so Dario went out and he said that oh I saw this yeah yeah high employment and that high unemployment due to models and that you need to be worried about it and you know because he had a fight with Hegzeth and and Carp you know chirped up and was like you know he's like yeah well if you think this is how it's going to happen maybe you have a high IQ but you're actually retarded like that's what that's what carp said. And I think that probably angered uh Dario Amode uh and as it should and I think Anthropic is is powering a lot of Palantir ontology deployments um and I believe that if they kind of came to market like one thing we know about Anthropic is they have no fear just launching competitor products to like their various customers right it's like Figma is like excited about using Anthropic and then they're like Anthropic's like yeah I made an internal Figma and your stock's down 80% that sucks and and so it's like it's like but but like that's like what they're that's what that's what anthropic's like when they don't give a shit like I would be very afraid of what Dario Amode is like if he does give a shit right if if he's like fuck Alex Carp right like if if Dario Amode really wants to say like because because Alex Carp sort of like told him to F off I'm like okay like you really don't want to be on the wrong side of Goldman Sachs and Anthropic right now. You're gonna get crushed right and so it's like and like if JD Vance was your cover like good luck man like like honestly um uh so so I think that's sort of like one of the scary the scary takes is that um one of the one of the really good macro indicators is like you know tether supply and circle supply are supposed to be up only charts.

SPEAKER_00 54:11

And it's not happening.

SPEAKER_01 54:12

And they need to start going up again. Like like like in order for us to rebound in a material way in cryptocurrency or a lot of of risk assets like uh that are not AI stocks, then we need to see the stablecoin supply start to run. And if it doesn't that's like a very strong canary in the coal mine uh uh that things are not good and you know I think from a trading perspective it's like okay you know where do you want to place bets right now it's like okay like do I really want to fade SpaceX um no I don't uh do I want to buy anthropic probably not it's probably too expensive in consensus open AI seems appealing to me I'm there I'm in soft bank uh I like the advertising thing because people are like sleeping on it and I think it could be huge. And then you're like okay well in public markets there's all these expressions of the Trump Bissent era right and you're like how does this era end? You know is it so there are two ways it could end. It could be Marco Rubio and the the anointed one sort of like continues a republic administration to the sunset and like Larry Ellison's like winning and then there's like another era where it's like Gavin Newsom and AOC just show up and just you know like regulate everyone to death and like investigate everything that happened over the last four years.

SPEAKER_00 55:38

And unfortunately I think it's probably more likely the second thing happens right you're like like the excess is going to be paid for um unfortunately I think um and so it's like yeah it's it's pretty crappy for for people like us because uh I think you and I to some extent have a lot of personal beta uh to things staying the way they are whoa that I I love the uh if JD Vance is your cover good luck because yeah it's also interesting like Palantir probably is the I mean it's the only stock that Trump tweeted a tick I mean tweeted ticker PLTR and it's it's lower they're at par with where he did that two months ago and so there is something to be said there that the most tightly anointed Trump beta is trading horribly and yeah go ahead go ahead well I think it's like there's a really interesting there's like this core Palantir bet I'm I'm doing the work on it because you know I used to work at Palantir it's been a long time since I built how did you work there for I worked there for two years.

SPEAKER_01 56:47

Okay um I did capital market stuff and and the the interesting thing the thing I don't have insight into is the core claim the core claim is fascinating the core claim is that um the LLMs don't work out of the box. That's what Alex Carp's thesis is. He's like and in order to make LLMs work you need to have an ontology and an ontology is a structured way to basically tag your data in an intelligent way which aligns with our old intelligence product because the old Palantir pitch was like uh you know the there is something called the 9-11 report and it was how how did how did 9-11 happen? How did we fuck this up? Why weren't we able to kill Osama bin Laden when we knew exactly who he was and where he is and everything and um the two conclusions were number one agencies can't share information and number two when they do share information and you say that there's a guy in a white outfit with a jeep in Afghanistan turns out that's every guy in Afghanistan and so you can't just say kill the guy in the white outfit with the jeep with a beard because that's every guy in Afghanistan. So you just start shooting random people and you can't do that. And so Palantir was like you need to have an intelligence method to be like tag whose Jeep is whose like how do we tell who's the right guy right literally that was the beginning of the ontology and they evolved that pitch into AI where they're like okay if you take the ontology that we built to find terrorists and you map it onto business data and you map it onto intelligence data and then you feed that into large language models the large language models work really fucking well that's their pitch. Yes and the problem with that pitch is that all of the research on vector databases that like and even the behavior of prompts like one of the more common things in prompts is like people used to have these crazy prompts where they tell people to do like 19 steps in order to make Opus do what they want it. Right. So there are these prompt engineers. Prompt engineering has been going down a lot because the models as they get smarter you don't need to feed them an ontology to get their shit right so so so the big question to me is like like what's actually under the hood like like and that's that's sort of the the tell is like you know I think we'll find out if anthropic and Goldman actually are able to um you know Palantir is an amazing business right by by the way because and there's a reason why they have a huge multiple it's it's like they have great people and once you show up and integrate everyone's data and like have a system to interact with it it's really hard to unplug it. But it's like okay if Anthropic is motivated enough and pissed off enough and they're working with Goldman Sachs like and the ontology might not be necessary for vector database performance and that's like the really like spicy thing is like what if carp's wrong what if you don't need an ontology what if you just need like a snowflake database with like you know some automatic automated tagging that like mythos can figure out in like a day right you're like then you're fucked right like then then you're going to 10 times say you know then your your stock is down 80% right so it's it's like like I think that's like a really interesting place to spend time on anal analytically on this like core question is like do you actually need an ontology for large language models to work? Because I don't have an ontology and I use LLMs every day and they work great right and so it's kind of like this like like what if I did have an ontology would work better like I don't know maybe maybe I'm missing out.

SPEAKER_00 1:00:17

Have you ever met Alex Carp? I have what what do you how what is his presence like in person I think a good a good summary he he's like he's a CEO whisperer.

SPEAKER_01 1:00:31

You know I I think a lot of CEOs deep down are worried that they're not interesting people like like if if you're if you're Jamie Diamond or you're um you know at the top of the finance game you're not afraid of being rich you're afraid of being boring right and Alex Carp is a very interesting person like extremely interesting almost painfully interesting. He's read every book he does qi qi gong barefoot in his office uh he's extremely inappropriate um he he gives these like one hour speeches to everyone who like shows up uh and he like berates people and he makes fun of them like I I remember one time he like took me aside he's like I think you probably imagine that you're good at sales and I'm like I'm like well I was just in a sales meeting and I'm like kind of I I think I kind of crushed it actually and he's like he's like that sale was going to close regardless of your presentation you know and it so he he's able to just like he kind of picks people apart and and he'll tell people it's sort of Steve Jobs esque he'll tell people like like kind of he's kind of like one of the things he tells people is he's like you're you're a spike talent you're really really good at one thing but you're not good at anything else right and and like his job at this organization is to take all these like mutants who are good at like exactly one thing and jam them together and create this like enterprise grade solution and and I mean he's a fantastic CEO he's he's great with retail investors. I was like a basically a retail investor because I was so young when I started there I was like this guy is crazy I love it like this is bullish. But yeah I think that can probably go against like I think that can turn out poorly um if you end up starting a fight with with your biggest AI supplier.

SPEAKER_00 1:02:22

Yeah damn that was a thank you for that that was a sick excerpt um and yeah I think this is gonna be a memorable stream that we'll come back to some of these takes that they're either going to age great or bad but it's a it's a sick time capsule.

SPEAKER_01 1:02:39

I I guess to give you like a wrap we're gonna have to do it again maybe for anthropic and open AI we could just be you could be our IPO whisperer um yeah I don't know I I guess it's like a rap I I hate rap questions but it is I believe trading will go live Friday like what do you think are gonna be the most important things to pay attention to you think we're up or down in a week on SpaceX and yeah I don't know what what what should people pay the most attention to overcoming SpaceX IPO and then into the next two that are on the horizon well I think the the most important thing is going to be uh retail understanding the space story and articulating it and amplifying it um because if you're paying 90 times sales like you got to keep in mind that you're paying much lower sales multiple for open AI and anthropic and so someone going into the SpaceX API really uh sorry API uh IPO they have to dream the dream yeah you know they they have to dream the dream um and uh in other words you need Jamie Diamond and and the Goldman research team uh it's like a concerted effort between Elon the Elon marketing machine and the sell side marketing machine to build a credible story around space and so the thing that would blow us up would be like someone's like okay the reusable rocket thing isn't gonna work uh here's why or they could prove it or you know it's and then you're like oh or you know the the structural integrity of data centers in space isn't good but like I'm bullish I'm bullish on the ability to overcome that because you don't have to do something in real life yes uh you just have to meme people um you know as a long-term hold probably terrible investment because you've got all the execution risk and it's already priced into the stock uh and it's growing too slowly uh and then like what you need to see to hold it was you need to see that the composer the next composer model actually is good like bet at like like if they start getting state of the art stuff on composer where it's like fast and they also have unfair compute advantages then you just like hold it. So I think you know my my assumption would be SpaceX itself trades well every other speculative asset trades down. It's path dependent in the near term based on uh basically XAI being a thing. Yeah um if it's not a thing then it just starts drifting lower uh in terms of uh open ai and anthropic like I mean I don't know honestly I I'm I'm I'm just kind of bullish on both of them uh Fable's incredible codex I think codex and Fable together are some of the best tech products I've ever seen in my career right you don't want to you don't want to bet against like the best product you've ever used right you're like okay it's expensive it trades at like 30 times you know 40 times say you're like okay like but it's growing at eight X you know it's it's growing insanely fast. Um I think like the thing that would just make me like raging bull on open AI would just be more successful ad pilots. And there's like a famous meta, there's a famous Facebook line. The moment when like the bottom of Facebook, I remember Zuckerberg was running around being like, We did a trial where we we turned off ads on Facebook and people used it less. Because like actually people, you know, like like that. That's insane. And that was like, I I remember I have this, like, I have this friend, he's actually a billionaire now. His name's Garrett Lord. You should have him on the stream sometime. You should get Garrett on the Garrett Lord. He he's doing a billion dollars in ARR now. He was running an education startup and he got into like the AI labeling game. This guy's just a genius. Um, and I remember he was like full ported in Facebook, you know, he's full ported in meta and I'm or Facebook at the time. And I'm like, what are you, you know, it's like, what are you thinking? Like, um, he's like, Well, yeah, like if people like the ads, then it can only go up. And you're like, yeah, I guess that's true. And so it's like, like, that's the the open AI thing is like uh Anthropic has already attacked OpenAI, they've run advertising campaigns saying, like, you won't ever see an ad in Anthropic. It's like, yeah, but also Opus will bitch me out for no reason for in like it's an unpleasant user experience. Super unpleasant. So it's like like you need to see Sam Altman or OpenAI give clarity around the user experience with advertising in Chat GPT because there needs to like if people feel like they lose trust or DAUs decelerate because they're like, dude, like I was going to you for advice and now you're shilling me like a diaper product, like, like, no, I'm not gonna use Chat GPT anymore. But if they're like, okay, like I'm delivering you products, you know, one of the one of the magical um like Cloudflare is a really good example where Codex will automatically spin up Cloudflare tunnels without asking you, right? It'll it'll just be like you're about to do something unsecure with an HTTP port. I'm gonna spin up a Cloudflare tunnel, which is a publicly traded stock, right? And you're like, huh, like I would have maybe done that differently, but you spun up a Cloudflare tunnel. Now I'm thinking about Cloudflare, like this is basically like advertising, right? Yeah, and so it's like and but I'm not that mad. I'm like, yeah, I can see why you did that. Like, you know, it's it's justified at least. And and a lot of the times the agents will tell you, like, dude, I you shouldn't build this from scratch. Like, if you're if you tell like Fable, you're like, I want to build HubSpot from scratch, Fable will be like, you should just buy HubSpot. Like, like, you know, it's like the models are not designed to sort of like blow up enterprise sales processes. So, so yeah, I think that would be like, I think the thing that people are probably sleeping on is open AI advertising. I think that's like, I think it's gonna be this huge story. It's very contrarian because everyone's in love with anthropic right now. Um, and I think it could probably like I think the the the probably the fade of all these like AI stocks. Notice that we just spoke nearly an hour and a half about tech stocks without talking about Google. It's it's the most consensus buy side long. Everyone's long, right? Like everyone thinks everyone is long, Google. Everyone thinks TPUs, it's like the obvious like cash flow positive public traded comp. Their cloud backlog looks like it's fucking fraud. It looks just like a uh a hockey stick, you know, everyone's long and this and it's not trading that well, and it's because Gemini sucks, right? It's sucks, so it's like nobody uses Gemini for coding, like it's just not a good model. And so I think that's like the the the other take would just be like Google relative to consensus, the fact that we didn't spend any time talking about it probably means it's a fade.

SPEAKER_00 1:09:52

Wow, as on that note, I just got a uh out of thinking USD Nodi Blood. Really feels like Google caught the top on the entire equity market by raising 80 billion of equity, not debt for context. 80 billion is larger than Thropic's last round, open AI's last round, and SpaceX IPO raise. So yeah, Gemini does suck and good Alex. Always a fucking pleasure. Until the next until the next IPO, man.

SPEAKER_01 1:10:15

Peace, brother.

SPEAKER_00 1:10:16

We'll uh get you back on. Thanks, man, for your time. Have a good one.