Robinhood's Trump Accounts, DELL Is Insane, Tesla x SpaceX Merger, Running The Saylor Entry, Series H - Threadguy: May 28th, 2026

A Julian Robertson Tiger blow-up arc from More Money Than God: trapped on the Yen, the $150M slam-long save, the LP carry-out at the dot com peak. Bitcoin running the Saylor entry, Hood ripping on the Trump accounts launch, Anthropic's Series H, Don Jr's drones flying on the WSJ headline, a Ryan Watkins and DeFi Monk interview, and the inevitable Tesla-SpaceX merger.

Transcript

SPEAKER_02 0:06

Yo, what the fuck is good? How are you all doing? Welcome back, man. It's so good to see some beautiful faces in the chat. We got a big stream. We got 17 minutes until market close, and it's a wild market close to say the least. We have uh we have Ryan Watkins and DeFi Monk are gonna come on in an hour and 16 minutes, which is gonna be awesome. We'll probably be on for 45 minutes. So we're gonna cover intro. I have some stuff I want to talk about. We'll do roll call, we're gonna do stocks, we'll do market close, we'll get Trump accounts, hit a couple things that mergers, acquisitions, SpaceX, all of this. Then we'll think Ryan Watkins for crypto, DeFi, Bitcoin, everything in between. And then after we have uh a bunch of stuff, a couple trades I'm a little bit excited about right now. Eli Lilly's one we're gonna talk about. It's an interesting one. We have a lot to cover, we have a lot to get into, and we have 15 minutes until market close. Has anyone seen this obsession movie? I'm trying like, is it really? I don't really fuck with scary movies, but I really want to go. It looks so good. I'm kind of down to like on some freak shit, go watch it. I wanna go. Maybe it's not a good date idea, but I wanna go. I'm sorry, I wanna go. Um, everyone's told me it's like genuinely terrifying, and I don't like scary movies. I I'll watch this. I watched Insidious, I used to cry when I watched Insidious. I remember watching the first time I started crying. Yeah, tiptoe through the wind. Dude, Insidious was scary as fuck. So I don't know. Maybe I'll watch it on the first date. I told you, I'm like Zion, I'm like the Mike Coach K of first dates, brother. All right, I have a fun story for you, real quick, before we start, and I'll tell you why I sold Zcash and we'll do market close. I'm reading more money than uh More Money Than God is Richard than got more money than god, and it's the hedge fund story. Yeah, I just got to the dot-com bubble, and the thing that's funny about the dot com bubble is there's obviously a bunch of parallels to the market that we're in right now. People love to draw all the comparisons. We did a we did a couple segments comparing the two, but the most fascinating part of the dot-com chapter in More Money Than God is that the two biggest hedge funds in the world at the time, Tiger and Quantum, which is George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller, basically both blew up on the way up, like on the during the inflation part of the dot-com bubble, like not on the aftermath in the way down, but they basically blew up on the way up, okay, which is crazy. And so, in uh in the case of Tiger, they tell this really interesting story where right before the dot-com bubble, they got super long the Japanese yen, and they went at it really hard. I think they had like 20 billion AUM and they were long, like three, four billion dollars. And a couple announcements were made, and the market starts going against them, right? And so everyone is short at the yen, short the yen, short the end, and they're down 500, they're down a billion, they're down two billion, they're down three billion. Once they got down three billion, a bunch of their LP started requesting money to withdraw, and they sort of were sitting on like life support in this position, like they had so much money in it, and it's just going down and it's going down and it's going down. And if they were to sell at a close sell and close all their longs, it would it would also get destroyed. And so all these other funds start positioning super short, trying to basically take Tiger out. Like they know they know it's coming, they know they have to capitulate at some point. There's all these withdrawal notices coming in. This is right like 1999, like right before giga inflation in the dot-com bubble. And so all these funds start basically fucking with them and like slamming short the end. And so they don't know what to do, they're trapped in this position, there's no liquidity in the books, they're down multiple billions of dollars, and they don't know how to get out of this position. And so, what do they do? This motherfucker Julian Robinson, Julian Robertson is an absolute sicko. What they do is they have a they call an emergency all-hands meeting, they bring in all the best traders at Tiger and they figure out what do we do? We could sell here, we could cut our losses, we're gonna get slipped to fuck, we're gonna, it's gonna be our worst trade of all time. We're gonna lose billions, everyone's gonna withdraw, this whole thing is gonna go into shit. And so, what do they do? They take 150 million dollars and they slam long add. They add and they basically tell the market if you're gonna take if you're gonna if you're gonna carry us out of this trade, even though we're already down three, four billion, you're gonna have to come for the the jugular. Everybody else panics, close their short, yen goes their way, pumps, they get out of this position. But the thing about them getting out of this position, okay, is we're in the early to middle innings of uh tech stocks and dot com bubble going parabolic. And so all of Tigers LPs kind of panic and are like, dude, you're down, we're down 10 in the year, everything else is up 30, and we just got out of a fucking jam because they they sent out like a monthly report. Everybody knew they were positioned in the yen and they were stuck. They barely get out of this thing, they lose 2-3B, lose like, you know, I don't know, 10% of the fund. And then there's like this mass withdrawal announcement. And so they go from like 20 billion, lose 3-4, have another couple billion withdrawal, and they have like 15, 14 AUM. And so they're kind of late to the dot com rip. Everything's just going up only in a straight line, no fundamentals. If you add a website, you triple, you know, you you add 2x to your market cap. And so they're late to it. And also their strategy, their trading strategies, they're very like out, they're like alpha-driven stock pickers. And so they go like super deep into DCFs and into all these models, and they're like, and they're not like riding trends, they're making like alpha-driven like picks. Okay. And so mentally, Julian Robertson is like, I can't play this game, like I cannot just turn my brain off and slam tech stocks. And so what they do instead is they go super deep on a couple like airlines, okay? They go super deep on airlines and a couple like like suppliers, like Caterpillar and things like this, but they go super deep on this one airline, maybe it was American or something else. And the trade works, like it catches the trend at the back end of this tech explosion, and it does like a 5x. And so they missed out on all these gains in tech, they got carried out on the yen, but they're they're playing catch up on this airline stock. He hits a 5x, okay. But the problem is they have so much fucking money to deploy that their positions are massive, okay? And so after this thing hits a 5x, they own one-fourth of the entire company. I think it was American. We're just gonna say American Airlines for the sake of the conversation, okay? And everyone's like, You gotta sell, you gotta sell, you gotta sell, you gotta sell, you gotta sell. But they're looking over at all these other companies in tech, and he's like, has gains to he has to catch up on gains. He's gotta catch up on gains. So he's like, No, I don't want to sell, I don't want to sell, I don't want to sell. And so he owns a fourth of American and a couple other like airline adjacent kind of stocks, whatever. We'll say airlines for the sake of the conversation. He doesn't sell, okay. Bubble goes goes goes higher, airlines reports in bad earnings. He's now trapped in this trade, okay? It starts, pulls back 30, 40 percent. His gains are down significantly. You round ships a ton of UP and L. Everybody else is getting hilariously rich in tech stocks. And so what happens is even though they're up a good amount of money, they're super underperforming the market because they couldn't turn the brains off. And this is back in the era where funds had LPs had a uh could submit a withdrawal notice quarterly. Now it's like annually, maybe once, once every six months, it was quarterly. And so coming up on the quarterly withdrawals, all of their LP are slamming withdrawal requests, like all of them. Like they have $15 billion AUM. There's like five, $10 billion. That's like we want to withdraw right now. You have to honor it. And so what happened was they were super positioned in like three or four stocks. They own like a fourth of each respective company with the liquidity that they had to return to LP that were requesting it out. Everybody in the market knew what they were positioned in, and they had to liquidate, they had no choice. It's like the rules, right? They want to go to jail. And so, what happened is all these other funds saw and smelled blood in the water and just went super short. Eric and all these other, you know, the four companies that Tiger was positioned in, and they just sat there and they waited and they waited and they waited and they waited, and he had absolutely no choice but to close his eyes and fucking dump it. And when by the time the aftermath was done, Tiger and the craziest bull run in the history of the world, the best one of the best hedge funds of all time went from like 20 B AUM to like five. They had a had a massive red year, and Juliet Robertson retired on the way up, like during the craziest blow-off top run the market's ever seen. He got carried out back. They took him out back and they fucking they hit him, and that was it. Tiger, obviously, tiger's gone on to do crazy things. There's all the tiger cups. We've learned about them on stream, but they carried him out because the LP's quarterly request. It was wild, it was a crazy read. Same thing happened with Quantum and Juck and Miller, basically. And so there's a lesson in there somewhere. I don't entirely know what it is, but it was a wild read. All right, let's take a look. SPX closes up 0.58%. I think it opened red this morning, first 15 minutes. It is up 0.58%, closes at 7562.62. New all-time highs on the SPX. I want to buy more take two, but I hate using Weeble. Weeble sucks. That's how I learn how to trade options. It does suck. They don't have to they don't have uh take two on hyperliquid, they should. Um, the cost be closes down half a percent, the Russell up half, QQQ up almost a full percent, the semi-index up a percent and outperformed the semi-index is the IGV that closes up 2.83. Gotta be honest, this is starting to look very interesting. Before we get into crypto, let us take a look at the earnings guy who has reported on the Dell with a fucking monster of a beat up 10 after hours. And this is a 200 billion dollar company. Incredible to see it. Moving on, crypto. First and foremost, Bitcoin. I'm gonna be honest, guys. I think it looks terrible. I think it looks terrible. I think it's completely out of the spotlight right now. I am not gonna come here and just like bear cuck Bitcoin, but you gotta go run the sailor entry for sure. I mean, you gotta you gotta just run sailor entry on this 100%. Why, why fight it? Every rich dollar in the world, every every smart capital allocator in the world is rushing to get as much leverage as humanly possible on the AI trade. Why are we fighting it? I don't I don't understand. Why are we fighting it? I don't know. So we're not gonna do that anymore. We're not gonna fight it anymore. Hyperliquid, I think, looks really good. This is the one coin which we'll talk about a lot during Brian Watkins interview as well, which if anything was gonna go, it it is hype. I think this thing looks looks really, really good. This is this yellow line is ATH tick, sort of consolidating right on, and that looks great. Um, Zcash, we talked about it. I sold, I'm out 530-ish, 526. I'm out. I'm down to re-enter uh above 650, anything but before that. Um, not I this will get flows, this will make a new all-time high, but for now, I'm good. Um, I think ETH is the worst chart of crypto. It is the guy who said he's been holding for six years. I'm genuinely sorry. On ETH and Solana, the same is just brutal. Really, really, really brutal on Seoul. I don't know how long these things, how low these things can go, but it can always go lower and it can always chop longer than you want it to chop. So, where are my medals, Chad's? Uh gold had a really nice daily up a percent. Actually, it looks interesting here, especially if we start getting a market wide rip. Silver looks decent, and then copper is the one that I like the most if we were to get a rip here. I think until north of like 6'6, it's not something I'm gonna trade because I have no experience trading metals, but the copper thing looks very interesting. Stretch is crazy, by the way. I've seen a couple smart people tweet that there probably is some type of hero short on stretch. I'm not gonna be the one to do it, but this is I don't know. I somebody I don't think I'm smart enough to have money in this thing, really. It looks horrifying. They bought a thousand bitcoin today, but I don't know enough about this to have a real take. Um, near down five percent. Um, bonds are all down, bond yields was just nice, VVV down three, souls down 1.7, and XMR got crushed today, down 11%. Our energy and oil names number one, crude oil is 89.40 a barrel, up about a percent. Brent is up about 0.23 percent at 92725 a barrel. Um, defense is very interesting. First and foremost, Palantir put in a sick candle. This actually makes the chart look pretty interesting. It's up eight percent on the back end of IGV pump. Eight percent. Our other defense names are up about a percent across the board. These charts look pretty brutal, but are seeing a little bit of recovery. Long Palantir till I die in from 134. I actually have made money on Palantir. It was fun to trade when I was in it. I think it looks pretty good. It looks pretty good. Yeah, you know, if you really think about it, Palantir is one of the only Trump stocks that hasn't really gotten a pump. He tweeted the ticker on this on April 10th. All right, semis, big AI, everything in between, crown Santa, hello. First and foremost, arm is now up 54% from the Contra bullpost. This thing is a fucking monster, plus 10 on the daily, crazy. Second biggest on my list is space, about to make a new ADH. This is a wild chart. I don't I don't have a huge space take at all. Unbelievable chart. Oracle is up about 6.67 and starting to print a pretty sick chart. AMD up five, QCom up four. Um, Microsoft three and a half percent green on the daily blackman is firmly now in profit, and this is its best day in a while. Sand disk up three, Marvell up three, ASTS or yes, ASTS definitive all-time high space as well. I mean, look, you look at this chart, kind of gets you bullish RDW, right? It's like if you look at ASTS, ripped the new all-time high, very similar chart physiognomy to this, I would argue, that is ready to make a new all-time high. So we'll watch those two very closely. Adobe up 1.3 percent. This thing looks so fried. Uh Broadcom about to make a new all-time high up one, NVIDIA up one, Amazon up one, Apple up half, um, ASML up half, Tesla up 0.4. The pit is now firmly in the red on our average short entry. Not mine, but yours. Google up 0.3, meta flat didn't gain any, but didn't give back any gains after its announcement yesterday of AI subscriptions. Um, Micron, first red day in a while, down 0.5%, Intel down one, Netflix down one, Bloom Energy down 1.3, Rocket Lab, our leader in space that's public, down 1.4, Nokia down 2.5, 5. The serenity stock is down five. Cerebris is down 10% on the day. Pretty disgusting chart. Firefly, ticker fly is down 13%. Pretty wild chart in this thing as well. It looks like the pump chart. If you if you're a ball knower, looks like the pump chart. Okay, coming on to consumers, some of our SaaS names, and the lists are kind of a mess. All right, Hood is the leader on this list, up 12% on the news that Trump accounts are live in Robin Hood. Any Robin Hood chats in the chat. Um, it's AI trading is live, but that's not why it's up, in my opinion. I that didn't move it. That was announced yesterday. I had like a 1% day. Kind of a nothing. That's kind of a nothing burger, in my opinion. Figma leading the way up 10%. The worst stock of all time gets a sick day. Reddit up nine percent. And from the omit public entry, it's up 17% in two days. Nebius is up nine percent on news that Leopold Ashley Brown always acquired five and a half percent of the company is crazy. Shopify is well up eight percent. Partnership with uh integration with Reddit and is up 11% from amits public entry. You gotta give the guy some credit. He banked two of them. Open door up seven. Um, service now up seven, circle is up five, so fi up five, coinbase up five. It's crazy. Enhanced games up four percent, the worst chart of all time. XYZ is up four, Eli Lilly up four into a new ATH. It looks pretty crazy. Um, Ferrari race is up four, is fully retraced the dump. Nike up three, IGV, we already went over up three, sweet green up another percent. Uhr the swatch group is now up 17.5% since the reveal of the AP swatch. Him's up a percent. Biggest losers are Ren down six, Caterpillar down three, DraftKings down two, micro strategy down 1.6, and dear god, dear god, this thing is pretty terrifying. DoorDash down half, Texas Instruments down half, GameStop is flat. eBay is now lower than when Ryan Cohen submitted a buy offer to take it private at 125 via GameStop. And last but not least, take two interactive is down 0.27. Altcoins, oh brother. PL is the leader, everybody's gonna die. Stay up five, lighter up two. Biggest losers, Gito down 12, Monero down 10, mega ETH, somehow down another 10%. I guess we'll add XLM. Fuck my life. Fine, fine, fine, fine, fine. Up 20. My god. Let's do a quick check-in on quantum stocks as well. First is IBM, it's up four percent today. Second is GFS, was flat. The third is QBTS D wave, was up seven today. The third is Reggetti RGTI was up 10. And the fifth is INFQ is up 15. I'm very compelled to buy one of these trump names. And then last but not least, let's check in on on-chain. Um, is it a disaster? No, looked good yesterday. Nothing crazy. Octra, still green somehow. Neat 37 cars 42 mil. Dea 20 off a cliff, crushed. And how about rail gun? 180 mil looks pretty good. And asteroid, god, I'm sorry, quantum, quant, and nothing else on my list that I could seem to care about at all. Last but not least, quick hyperliquid check-in. SpaceX is at 198. So that is where we end market close today. So a couple of our biggest stories here. All right, number one is we had news of another ceasefire. So SSDD, US and Iranian negotiators have reached an agreement on a 60-day ceasefire of understanding to extend the ceasefire and launch negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. But President Trump has yet to give his final approval. I mean, these have gotten ridiculous. Seriously. How do you come out and you basically say we have a ceasefire with Iran just as long as Trump agrees and as long as Iran agrees? There's no ceasefire. I hate to use this term again, but it also feels like we're getting back to diminishing returns on these announcements because it's like, man, how many times can we pump on this ceasefire news? I don't know. I mean, how long can this go on really is crazy. It does feel like we are pumping less and less on each one. And it felt like that headline was so ridiculous. I'm like, what am I reading with this fucking headline? It's like, there's a there's a deal so long as Trump and Iran agree. There's no deal. Trader home moves is closed. We have an energy crisis, but oil's down only, stocks are up only, and why just like crypto, why are you gonna try to fight that? On the news of Robin Hood, this is a pretty fun story. Um, Hood launches Trump Accounts app. And so Robin Hood has released its official Trump Accounts app. Parents can now open a Trump account to invest in their child's future. Eligible children born 2025 through 2028 will receive a $1,000 starter contribution from the U.S. Treasury. The app is available for download today, a major step toward long-term financial security for millions of kids. Is this app live? I haven't is it a different app than Robinhood? Trump accounts. Oh, it is live. Wow. Trump accounts, official app. Whoa. Build a stronger financial future for your child. Trump accounts help eligible American children begin building long-term financial growth from early age. It says nothing about Robin Hood. Robin Hood made the app. I know, but it doesn't mention them at all. Why? Anywhere. They have the copyright at the bottom, but it doesn't mention Robin Hood at all. Yeah, I don't it uh it's a cool announcement. Like it's pretty cool that it pumped on this. I wonder, does this make like it's it's a little bit weird that Trump doesn't talk about Robinhood that much? Like, is this does this make Robin Hood a Trump darling account? I wonder, or a Trump darling stock? In my opinion, it doesn't either. I actually think Trump has treated Robin Hood very weird during this Trump accounting. Like it doesn't mention them on the app anywhere, which is like okay, they built it, but fine, but no clout. It's a separate app, so it isn't like Trump is directing people to Robin Hood to get these Trump accounts. And then in the press release, which we read a couple streams ago, when they talk about Trump accounts, the only thing they say is like, God bless you, Michael Dell, and then has Robin Hood's logo listed next to like Chipotle ServiceNow and Doordash at the bottom of the sponsors. Like they don't really get that. I don't know, they don't seem to get that much publicity from it. And so they get the AUM though, that's all they care about. I don't think it's gonna be that much. They could theoretically get 15 to 60 billion of platform assets. Oh, four to seventeen percent. That's a lot. 345 billion total platform assets. The monster up they upside down to a thousand dollars. Whether parents employers keep actively contributing. So if you have 14.5 million kids. And each of them get a thousand dollars. That is baseline 14.5 billion, which is 4.2% of Robin Hood's current platform assets. Well, I wonder what kind of multiple they get on uh their assets. Huh. It's actually a decent bull case. Two quick rapid fire on Enthropic just to update you. I haven't used it yet, but Anthropic just launched Opus 4.8. Has anyone tried it? And what do you think? I think uh I still stick by the Daniel Tenero thesis, which is my favorite, which is as long as each model continues to get better than the last, Capex is forced, financially forced to continue to go up only. And the but there's no way for the market to slow down. Actually, no way. They also are teasing Mythos very soon. I mean, I think it's a very, very simple thesis. I haven't tried it yet. I've seen mixed opinions, but to be fair, this thing released a couple hours ago. So how does anybody really know? So that's anthropic number one. Enthropic number two is the dah that they have raised $65 billion in a series H funding at 965 billion post money valuation. Congratulations to Athropic, but this is disgusting. It's disgusting, bro. Series H. It is disgusting. I mean, it's like it's it's it's honestly such a fuck you to retail traders. Somebody has to solve this. Somebody has got to solve this. Series age is ridiculous. Like, there's pre-IPO perps, as in SpaceX is gonna IPO in a month and we're speculating on you know, first tick when it goes live, versus anthropic might never IPO and we're speculating on nothing. There's not the same thing. Somebody has got to solve this on nobody going going public. I have this like mini theory that the lack of companies going public is gonna lead to this explosion in public s SPVs, which are gonna trade at massive multiples, which would leave room for some of these pre-IPO perp vehicles to catch a lot of volume and a lot of adoption, which would then force companies to go public because you're basically already public. But the problem is these pre-IPO perp vehicles, what are you even trading? Nobody knows. And I can't, in my right mind, recommend you trade you know, Ventuals Anthropic. It's like you can't trade this thing, so yeah, they've gotta do something about that. I mean, congrats to Anthropic. Great to see the rounds getting bigger and bigger and bigger, but they've gotta someone has to solve that. This is this is ridiculous. All right, one more topic before we get Ryan Watkins on is Trump. So Trump has recommended us some new buys, which we're gonna talk about. That I mean it's basically a Trump KO market. So I have this old tweet from May 21st. Wow, this is how is this seven days old? It's crazy. Seven days old. This is seven days old when Trump came out and said the US is granting two billion dollars to nine quantum computing firms. These were the five biggest, and then France came out right after and announced a billion dollars behind it. And so there's definitely some alpha in some of these names. At the same time, Trade XYZ just announced a pre-IPO perp for QNT. That I don't really know what this is. Let's actually look at how this is trading. Um, let's look at this trading two million dollars in volume instantly. We should actually look into this. Um, this is my biggest new equity position. Actually, they're holding company Honeywell. What is Honeywell? Honeywell International is an American multinational conglomerate that manufactures technology for commercial and industrial applications, headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina. The company operates across four primary segments just holding into QT IPOs, aerospace building automation. Interesting, interesting, interesting. This is live on Trade XYZ, which we will follow very closely. I spent this morning looking at these five. IBM is fucking expensive, and I don't think it's the most direct want to play. But some of these other ones are very interesting. Um but what I wanted to cover is this. So this headline just came out, Wall Street Journal, which are the Trump admin is in talks to fund US drone companies. This has been, I mean, this has been the most profitable trade tail, whatever Trump says to buy to just buy. It just so happens that Don Jr. uh backs two public drone companies, UMAC and PUSA. Previously a publicly traded golf course company that Don Jr. reversed merged with Power Rust, the drone company he backs. Umac is specifically named as one of the companies in talks to receive a government investment. What a coincidence. So here's the announcement the Trump administration is pursuing funding deals with a group of drone companies as part of its effort to increase domestic production and lower the cost of the increasingly vital weapons. People familiar with the matter said the potential deals follow months of discussions between a diverse set of private sector drone companies in the Pentagon. The people said the discussions have included the Office of Strategic Capital, a lending office set up by the Biden administration to fund companies deemed important to national security supply chains. The deal talks are in are still in a negotiation phase. The people cautioned, and Pentagon deal makers are continuing to vet the companies before finalizing. Well, let's look at them. Number one is UMac. Funny how the companies getting these US deals happen to be taking investment from uh Donald Trump Jr. Well, it's worth 1.4 billion after pumping is a 700 million dollar meme coin, basically. It is up 57 percent on the daily, just a I mean a monster candle. And the second one is P USA, which used to be a golf course that was reversed, reverse mergered. Uh what the fuck is this? Up 17 and a half percent. It's a hundred million dollars. What is this? Why does this look like this? Yeah, it was a golf company. Why does this look so terrible? Dude, it's a hundred million dollars. Huh? What what the fuck? It's not even updated, bro. On CNN. Agent ownership and operation of public golf country clubs. It's not even updated. What the fuck is going on here? Wow, that is I mean, this is a literal shit coin. Down two and a half percent after hours, it was up 17 on the daily. I mean, do you just like what do you do here? Do you just buy this on the back end of it's a great day to be a drone company, especially one that's backed by Trump's sons? Trump was the leader. It's up 50% year to date. P USA was number two. RCAT LTRX. There's quite a few that are down year to date. What is RCAT is traded really well? Red Cat holdings up 32% today as well. This is uh $1.74 billion. I mean, these are tiny companies, man. These are so small. Yeah, that is wild. Let's add it to the list, I guess. P USA. I mean, bro, CNN still thinks it's a golf company. They're gonna win a billion-dollar contract from Trump to build drones for the US. It's a $93 million company. They're gonna win a billion-dollar contract. Really? That feels far-fetched, but uh Donald Trump Jr. is an investor. Um, yeah, that's wild. Um, look at this. Dell just won a five-year $10 billion Pentagon software given for the US military. But Trump also bought Dell. He bought multiple times since February 10th up more than $5 million. On May 8th, he said go out and buy a Dell. Unusual. If you look at this chart, May 8th, when he said go out and buy a Dell, May 8th. Don't mind if I do, just slide it right over here to current price. It was already up so much, it's up another 50% since that. Oh yeah, it's crazy. This was also after tech billionaire Michael Dell and his wife Susie pledged 6.25 billion to fund and incentivize investment across accounts for 25 million American children. I think if we were in the weeds right now covering what the way we cover stuff, like we were back then, you probably catch that as unusual. Yo, yo, yo, yo, he's above mellow right now, by the way.

SPEAKER_01 29:26

Yeah, he's above mellow right now.

SPEAKER_02 29:28

He's above mellow right now, man. Um, it's good to see you guys.

SPEAKER_00 29:32

Are you Nixon?

SPEAKER_02 29:34

No. For for like the next month. I'm a Lakers fan. I'm a Lakers fan. I'm a Knicks fan for the next like month, you know? Partying in New York, man. How are you guys? Welcome back. It's been a while.

SPEAKER_01 29:47

Yeah, good, good, good. Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 29:49

It uh go ahead.

SPEAKER_01 29:52

No, I was just gonna say, can't complain. Knicks in the finals, hyped at all-time highs.

SPEAKER_02 29:56

Almost at all-time highs. It uh, you know, it's an interesting time for you guys to come on because I think crypto is what I'm the most excited to talk about. Hyper liquid, perps, all of this. There's uh yeah, crypto sentiment. We always talk crypto sentiment, crypto sentiment. I feel like has been a discussion for a while, but it's and I always say like it's the lowest or it's the weirdest, but it's in a particularly unique spot this week where you have hyper liquid above 60, I think 61 right now. We were just charting your great perpification uh of the world on the chart and where that was, which has played out very well since you posted that. Hyperliquids above 61, Zcash has traded really well, things like VVV have done well. There's a couple spots, and then Bitcoin is just chudding along, and everybody is just rage quitting. And so you basically held hyperliquid, longed Zcash, or you are ready to get carried out. So I guess I'll go to you first, Ryan. We'll go to DeFi Monk, and we could just sort of go round table on this. Is like, what do you make of the separation between sentiment and like price action, where we are with hyperliquid, and then what what everything else is, what everyone else is feeling in crypto, how everything else is trading, how are these two things so separate? Why, why does it feel like this right now?

SPEAKER_00 31:17

Yeah, you know, it's funny. I I think this is my third time being on here, and every single time I come on here, it's always just like, oh, sentiment is so shit, it feels so bad. And like it almost feels like you know, we're we're kind of on here to to kind of give a reason for people to believe. Uh it's just funny how it happens, but but yeah, I think for so to me, you know, one thing I've always thought about is at some point we're gonna have some level of decoupling across the gasic glass, some dispersion. It's just a natural maturation process. Like as we start to get more sophisticated investors, as you start to get more uh higher quality projects, and especially projects whose fundamentals just aren't tied to cyclicality of crypto. Like obviously you will have some things that just don't uh trade one-to-one with Bitcoin. Now, are we there yet? Uh I'm not sure, but we do have things like hype and Zec and VVV, which are starting to separate from the pack. And it actually makes sense. And in fact, I think this makes more sense than uh any kind of like previous decouplings have, because uh let's just take you know, hyperliquid, for example, like what is actually driving a lot of the growth in volumes. I saw like some people today talking about how hyperliquid fees have been relatively stable throughout the past three months, despite the fact that like price has gone up and obviously the volumes are going up, open issues going up. It's because it's all like the equity and commodity stuff that is like lower margin because we have growth mode on that is actually driving the growth, right? And same thing with uh, I think BVB is also uh not to me at least not the same level as hyperliquid, but similar situation where it's just like compound growth, like just nothing to do with what is the price of Bitcoin, it's just are people signing up for Venice or not? People are signing for Venice and they're paying money, the hell does it have to do with the price of Bitcoin? Right? It doesn't have anything to do with it. And I think there's like more than enough capital that is in this asset class where if you have some assets that are really doing well and prove themselves that they can go up, even if as a whole, the entire asset class is not getting a ton of new inflow. So I think this makes sense. I think it's like a a beginning of what this asset class will look like moving forward, which is that you just have to be a much sharper asset picker because rising tides doesn't always lift up vaults anymore.

SPEAKER_02 33:35

You do have to be really sharp right now. Like there was a couple spots, if you hit them, you feel great. If you didn't, you are in a brute you're you just you've underperformed, especially because the risk to reward or I guess opportunity cost to be trading crypto right now is high. I mean, I mean what do you think about our select basket of alts right now that have done relatively well, all things considered?

SPEAKER_01 34:01

No, are you asking me?

SPEAKER_02 34:02

Yeah, yeah, go ahead.

SPEAKER_01 34:03

Yeah, yeah. No, I mean I think I think what you're seeing right now is kind of an asset class that has historically been populated by traders, kind of shifting to an asset class that is more fit for an investor, and that's causing a lot of dissonance within the community. And dude, I get it. Like, if you are down on your BTC longs, I mean I'm frustrated at BTC too, and you're looking at semiconductor stocks going, you know, like putting up 10% daily candles just like four or five days in a row, you're like, why don't I just leave this garbage asset class and go along these these other trendy momentum assets? And you can do that. Like, I think that's perfectly fine. Um But I I think at the same time, there is a structural edge to having been in crypto over the last five years, to where something like Hyperliquid, I mean, we've had now, um, I mean, Hyperliquid, I think was, I mean, it's been live since 2023, but the points program didn't start till really start till like 2024. And then it'd, and so we've had now, if you've been in crypto, multiple years in a row of knowing what hyperliquid is, knowing who Jeff is, understanding the story, understanding the narrative. And now you're seeing all of these institutions outside of crypto, all of these exogenous flows, go like, wow, this is this this asset is a stud. Like, I want in on this. And you, as a crypto participant, has now had multiple years of knowing what exactly makes hyperliquid so special. And there are people that I'm calling who are just now going through this discovery phase of understanding why something like hyperliquid is so special. And so that's a structural edge in and of itself. I think it sucks that it's such a low hit rate kind of phenomenon where we only have these few assets that are actually doing well. But if you're willing to lean into that edge, uh, like we are at syncrecy and kind of go, hey, look, everybody is looking at semiconductor spots right now, but there's this asset called hype, which we think is one of the best assets in all asset classes, not just in crypto. We think this could be a stud in equities. We think anybody who understands a narrative will be incredibly bullish on this thing. And so you can just view that, you can flip it and kind of view it as an edge. Like right now, there is edge in crypto if you're just staying in here, if you just know what's going on. And I think what's different from now and before is you really need these protocols to start making some sort of real impact outside of crypto, which is what VVV, which is what hype is doing. I think Zec is appealing to investors outside of crypto as well. Like you've got to find a way to get your story out there beyond just a crypto circle. But once it gets there, you do have an edge in knowing what exactly is actually going on behind these assets.

SPEAKER_02 36:48

You know, I'm I'm more excited to talk about uh the upside of some of the things they're doing well rather than you know why why is everything else so bad. On the hyperliquid discussion, I'll ask you, Ryan. It's like, okay. I think everyone in crypto unanimously agrees perps are an incredible product, they're a superior product to what exists in TradFi and the hyperliquid business model is like undefeated. But the valuations do start to get like a little bit lofty from here, especially once you've captured captured everybody in crypto. The question now becomes like, what is it gonna take from a storytelling perspective for the rest of retail? I think hyperliquid has like 15,000 DAUs, something like this. Maybe I made that number up, but I had that number written down 15,000 DAUs. What is it gonna take to convince the retail world that perps are better than options? Like, do we need to is this like a job you have to go out and spearhead or you on Reddit or like a new Wall Street bets? Like, how do you actually acquire these new people into crypto? Because I think that's what makes this story so interesting interesting.

SPEAKER_00 37:49

Yeah, I'll actually let uh let Monk take this one because he's been doing a lot of work recently on like hyperliquid valuation FTV. I think is like a good good.

SPEAKER_02 37:57

Also, what is the what is our FTV that we're using? Give me that as well.

SPEAKER_01 38:01

Yeah, uh, I mean, sneak peek. Uh we're gonna be putting out a report on this soon where we just kind of we're gonna be getting this question all the time from people who are not used to crypto valuations. They're going, like, what the hell is FTV? What the hell is circulating? What what should this thing actually be worth? Um, I mean, ballpark right now, like we think it should probably be somewhere in between, if not closer to circulating. And so that's a massive shift in the story, right? If all of a sudden hyperliquid is not worth $60 billion.

SPEAKER_02 38:30

Like, where that goes, why you are not accounting for it?

SPEAKER_01 38:33

Yeah, I mean, I've had a background in equities before, and there is no such thing as an FTV for the average stock. The the way people look at dilution is they look at what is dilution going to be over my investment, forward-looking investment horizon, right? And so what is inflate, what is inflation going to be for shares of NVIDIA over the next few years? And then you kind of run your valuation across diluted EPS across that time period. No one ever sits down and goes, what is the maximum amount of shares that NVIDIA could ever issue over the entire history of the stock? Right. And so I think now that we're introducing hype to this more traditional kind of investor, we kind of need to speak on their terms. And the reality is like the 40% or so of supply now that is allocated for future incentives, I just don't think that makes sense to be including in any sort of real market cap discussion. One, we have no idea when and if that supply will ever come online. And two, if it does, I think there's a real chance that Jeff and the team decide to use it in an accretive way. Where let's say a dollar worth of hype incentives generates like a dollar or more of hype buybacks. And so it's not really true inflation in the in the typical sense. And so what is inflation really? It's probably just staking rewards, which is pretty minimal, um, like easily offset by buybacks, and then it's just team unlocks. And that's basically what you should be focusing on. And we'll we'll get more in depth in this when we put up uh the report, but that's that's basically I think what investors should use.

SPEAKER_02 40:03

All right, I'll let you guys go top of the hour. Thank you so much. It was an absolute pleasure. Congratulations again. I look forward to part part four. It's always great to have you guys on. And uh yeah, have a go Nixon six, man. All right, guys. Thank you so much. Have a good time. Peace later. Movie. As we approach a potential Tesla SpaceX merger, they're making it seem like this is gonna happen. Um so he already merged XAI and SpaceX, as we know. And they're saying it might be inevitable that Tesla and SpaceX merge at the current price, they're valuing SpaceX at like 2 trillion and some change on HL. And Tesla currently trades at a $1.66 trillion market cap. And so a merger puts it at like I don't know, four plus four-ish trillion, assuming that there's no dilution, which I don't know how exactly how it works. And we already what did the SpaceX segment last Friday, SpaceX segment last Friday, where it feels like this thing is gonna get the infinite bid up only. They're bending the rules to sort of force people to twap SpaceX on low float high-tv. And I pulled this up. I have the 10 largest mergers in history, but it's crazy how small they are compared to what SpaceX would be, and these don't really happen, I suppose. Charter and Time Warner Cable 2015 acquisition, $79 billion. Time of the deal. Nine is Exxon Mobil merger, $81 billion. Eight is in the year 2000 pharmaceuticals merger, Galax Galaxico Welcome and Smith Klein beak beachum beacum is 107 billion dollars. Six ATT Time Warner 2016-2018. Some deals are valued higher, just the combined valid both. Got it. 108 billion United Tech and Raytheon, 121 billion, 2020. That was kind of recent. Dow and DuPont 130 billion in 2015. Um, Verizon 130 in 2014, AWOL and Time Warner in 2000 for 165 billion. That's a fucking monster in 2000, and then the biggest ever. I don't know what this is. Vodafone Mansman, 180 billion dollars, hostile acquisition. What happened here? Hostile acquisition for 180 billion dollars, 180 billion dollar merger that reshaped global telecommunications as the largest acquisition in corporate time in the history. British telecom giant Vodafone successfully acquired German conglomerate Mansman, shattering taboos against hostile takeovers in Europe. Made a surprise $33 billion acquisition of the British telecom company Orange, perceiving this as the threat to Vodafone's European wireless dominance. CEO Chris Gent retaliated. Wow. Except except facing immense pressure from major investors. Esther sur uh surrendered on February 4th, 2000, accepting a sweetened deal that valued Mansman at $180 billion. Holy fuck. That's crazy. I'm rugging the stream. I'm not sharing the pit link. I'm gatekeeping it. And we're gonna have a really fun stream tomorrow. I'm live every day at 3 30 p.m. EST. More like 3 35 p.m. EST. And on that note, I'm rugging the stream. I love you all so much. Thank you so much, but thank you so much for supporting. I will catch you when I catch you. I see you when I see you. Have a great rest of your day. Love you, motherfuckers. See you tomorrow. Peace.