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Threadguy Live
An Unfiltered Conversation with Chris Camillo
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Mr. Chris.
SPEAKER_00What's up?
SPEAKER_02Welcome to the stream, man. How are you doing?
SPEAKER_00I'm doing great, man. It's a good day.
SPEAKER_02It's a great day, man. I'm happy you uh you could make it. Look, I w I want to start, I want to give you a quick a quick intro. Everyone's always asking you for intros. I want to give you a quick one. Um, quick lore on me is I've always been like an internet hustler kid, right? And so uh in high school, I'm like a sneaker reseller. Near the end of my high school, I graduated in 2020, move on to sports cards in the beginning of COVID, found NFTs, which I know you had a little NFT stint at one point. NFTs sort of age out, move over to crypto, then we're trading crypto on-chain. And in 2025, the fall of 2025, crypto has a really rough year. 1010 happens, volume, liquidity, open interest sort of falls off a cliff. And I realized more than anything, I want to trade volatility. And so in October of last year, I start talking about stocks. And for the first time, I'm posting these, you know, clips are coming out from my stream, and I'm saying, like, man, I just feel like crypto traders can do well in the stock market, and that a lot of, not all of, our skills, narrative, attention, momentum, memetics port over. And so I post this clip. And at the time, I'm reading Unknown Market Wizards, and I I think I'm on the Peter Brandt chapter, which is funny, it's like the antithesis of how you trade. And you quote tweet me and basically say something along the lines of I've been saying this forever, it's about time they catch on. And I click on it and I'm like, who is Chris Camillo? I click on your Twitter profile and I see your banner is Unknown Market Wizards, and I'm like, no way, I have the book in front of me. And so I skip ahead, you know, a couple chapters and I get to your section at the same time. I'm trying to convince myself I can win in stocks. Like it wasn't lucky in crypto, and I read your chapter, and I mean it starts with a Snapple story, it gets to the Michelle Obama, and then it just ticker tags the whole thing. And I honestly could not believe what I was reading. Like, I I felt like it was it was meant to be at the time. It was yeah, it's an unbelievable chapter, and yeah, man, I'm excited to to have you on. When did you record that interview?
SPEAKER_00Oh man, that was years ago. Uh, I don't know, maybe like eight, nine months before that book came out. So, like, I don't know, 21 or something like that. Um, well, imagine this. Imagine you're who you are, but you're my age, and you were doing all that stuff, but the crypto didn't exist. And none of that stuff existed. The only thing that existed was equity markets. Imagine you're the only guy in the world that is taking that approach, and you're like, this is insane. There's literally, I'm not talking about not having 50 million other people like you have in crypto trading, not one other. That was my life, right? That was my life in you know decades ago, dude. And I've been just waiting and waiting and waiting for other people to catch on. And then the moment that people finally catch on to my methodology, it's not with equities, it's with this new thing, crypto. I'm like, dude, there's no, there's no effing way. There's no effing way that I've been waiting my whole life to have people think like me, trade like me, like, and they're not doing it with stocks. They're doing it with this new thing, crypto. It was, it was like insane. Um, and on one hand, it was super frustrating because it sucks to be a lone wolf forever. Like, you want to have a community, right? You want to be able to relate. Like, dude, I I've been like, you know, an investor. So like I go to investing events and conferences, and there's technical traders, there's fun, dude. I'm just like an alien, dude. Like, I don't relate to anyone, I don't give a crap about anything that anybody else is doing in the investing world. Like it is it could be as foreign to me as like anything you could imagine. Um, and so I've had like no friends in my world, right? Like I had no one to no one to relate to. And then all you guys step in and you're doing this crypto stuff. And I'm like, okay, it it sucked for me because I was like, dude, what the hell are they doing? But then on the flip side, I'm like, dude, if all of these efforts got involved with equity trading, my edge would like go down meaningfully because these kids are young, they're they're sharp, they're using algos, like everything that I'm doing, they're doing, but they are relentless. They're they're doing it the way I did it a long time ago, whereas I just didn't sleep. And I'm like, I don't know that I need millions to tens of millions of those kids competing with me as you know, attention arbitraders, social arbers, whatever you want to call it in the equity market, because my competition in an equity market is freaking nothing. Nothing. And people are like, how did you generate 70% returns for 18 years? Well, I mean, the new audit's not out yet. It will be soon. I'm waiting on Jack to give it to me. I think it's gonna be roughly 70% on 18 years. And like, you don't understand how weak the competition is in equity markets. You don't understand how slow hedge funds are. You really, really don't understand how much of a herd mentality is in this space that I've been working in. Yeah, they're smart technically. Yes, they have access to tens of billions of dollars and infinite resources technically, but none of that matters. They don't know what the hell they're doing. Um, and so, you know, I just started talking about this recently about these crypto traders coming into my space because I knew it was inevitable and it actually is starting. And I'm more happy about it than mad because truthfully, like my life obsession is to like fully democratize the investing landscape, have every human on earth enter, you know, the investor class and having them be successful and having them truly understand and believe that they could be great at this, because like no one fucking believes me, dude. Like every person is like, oh, well, the game is rigged, it's rigged against us. I'm like, dude, it's rigged for us, dude. If you're a retail truck, if you're a normal human that like doesn't have to report to a to a conventional office on Wall Street every day with a bunch of suits and protect your job and and like go by conventional research research methodologies, if you're just normal and connected culturally to the world and can do whatever the hell you want, this market is rigged for you, not against you. And like nobody ever believes me when I say that.
SPEAKER_02So I want to ask you about this because you are so adamant, outspoken, and open that you want everybody to participate in these markets. I historically have gone around in my life not lying to people, but avoiding the discussion of what do I buy, what do I trade? Because there was a time where I wasn't doing that, and I'm like, you buy this, you should trade this, you should buy this. I convinced my dad to buy NBA Top Shots and my friend to buy Solana, and every time it ends in it either ends in a disaster where they lose money or they make money and think it's because that they're a genius. And I have like found the easier path of least resistance here is to just not talk about it. And you are as far on the other end of the spectrum as possible with trying to get people to trade. Like, why is that?
SPEAKER_00So when I first created my company Ticker Tags, which was a the first social data intelligence company for hedge funds and banks, I want to prove that my methodology could be institutional. Like that was like my high ground. Like, that was like, dude, if I can get the biggest funds in the world paying me money for this sort of intelligence, how cool would that be? I've always I've I was always like an outsider. I was always on the outside of Wall Street. I always wondered what it would be like to see, you know, to get deep in the inside of like Wall Street. And I did, I got as deep as one could go. I worked with the biggest funds in the world at the top levels of those funds, educating them on conversational data sets and how to look at them, how to interpret them. Ultimately, they're so lazy and intimidated by that. Like most of them still to this day don't know what the hell they're doing in this space. But um I when I was making the rounds with these funds, which was a pretty cool damn experience for me at the time, this is like mid-2010s. Uh, one guy sat me down and he's like, Listen, like what you're doing is incredible. Your track record, your approach, your methodology. He goes, but no one in this industry is going to respect it. He goes, what you need to do is as as hard as it seems, as intimidating as it seems, because you never want to be called out for being wrong. You just have to be outspoken about what you believe and what you're seeing in the market. Like you gotta call, you gotta call your shots out loud. And every time you take a meeting, you go, This is what I'm seeing, this is what I'm doing. And people are going to see it work more than they're going to see it not work. And over time, you're going to earn the respect of other investors and institutional Wall Street. And so since that day, I've been very outspoken, not in terms of like you need to invest in this, but this is what I'm seeing, this is what I'm doing, knowing that I could just fall flat on my face because that trade might, and it doesn't always work, right? Of course, it never always works. Um, but truthfully, like, you know, I this is kind of insane, but like over 18 years, I don't know. There's been 70 to 80 high conviction trades that I've made over 18 years, and I think less than 10 of them have been wrong. So, like, you know, it's that seems insane. I know it seems insane. But but like I've been very outspoken with all of those 70 to 80 trades. So, like, if one were to go back throughout all of Twitter and all of YouTube and everything I've ever done, you would find the 70 to 80, and like a person could document all of them, the book, everything I've ever talked about, like before the trades happened. And it's it's kind of nuts, man. Like, like the guy was right. Like, eventually, if you're willing to just be open and be like, this is what I'm doing, this is why I'm doing it. There's always gonna be a weird thing that might creep up that you missed. The trade didn't work, the macro environment crashed right in front of you, so the trade didn't even matter. Like, there are a lot of ways for a trade to go bad, but damn, so many of them have gone so freaking well. And it's like, you know, even the most recent one. I mean, Amazon at 197, and every single person was shitting on Amazon, every big institutional investor, every retail investor, they were all of X was like, dude, this 200 billion that they're spending is insane. Like, I'm like, I was like, you know what? I came out, I was like, dude, and Amazon was hurting. I was like, I'm doubling, tripling, quintupling down. I did the same thing with Bloom Energy. Yeah, Bloom Energy shit the bank. It was down to 80. Bloom Energy came down to 70s. I think it came down to $77. I'm doubling down. I don't care. The reason why it's down makes no sense to me. Therefore, I'm doubling down. Now it's a 295, like a few months later, right? So it's like it's so hard. People don't understand how fucking hard it is when nobody believes, and and it seems like that's the dumbest move in the world to say, I so believe in this. I'm tripling down, like Palantir in the 30s. There were guys coming out, they're like, dude, you're getting into Palantir now, dude. Are you kidding me? This move is so over, so over. Robin Hood at 27, you know, it's just like, and here we are again. Robin Hood's down the 70s again, you know. Like, I'm good, I'm doubling down in Robin Hood. I'm still doubling down in Amazon, right? Um it's just it's hard, man. You know, but by the way, it's hard for me in equities. It's not hard for you guys in crypto because you guys are used to having the world against you. You're used to having outlandish, you know, opinions that are uncorrelated, that no one believes in. And you you guys are fucking nuts just like me. So it's like the thought of you guys coming into my world is both invigorating and exciting. Um, meanwhile, I know what's gonna happen. Like the edge is going to slowly, if you guys really do this, which I know you will, I know you will. You're already starting over the next five years. The edge is going to come down uh with what I do. But yeah, I'm at the tail end of my career, man. Like, I got I want two more years of big returns. I want to hit the 20-year return mark. Okay. And I'm getting involved in, dude, I've been grinding since I was 12 years old. Okay. Like, I'm not, I'm not young. I I I've made all the money I want to make times 10. There's nothing I want to buy. Like, I'm just I just want to help people. I'd love, you know, I don't sell anything. Like, yeah, yeah. I just want to in in I just want people to get in the market, learn how to invest for themselves, not be afraid of Wall Street or intimidated by Wall Street. Um, so I I the timing could not be better. I'm so pumped to have more of you guys getting into equities.
SPEAKER_02Okay, let me ask you a uh about a specific trade and then we'll come to an old trade, which you wrote you talked about in the Market Wizards interview, but I I haven't seen you talk about on a bunch of YouTube videos. Uh the connection is the Sydney Sweeney American Eagle moment that happened in 2025 where she does all the ads for American Eagle rips like 75, 100%. That was I didn't trade it, but that was the moment where I realized, like, okay, I I think I could do this well. And you wrote about it was freshly in my head, it had just happened, and then you wrote about this Michelle Obama dress on Jay Leno in 2010 or something like this. That you I looked it up, we showed it on the stream, the yellow dress. You're watching it, you weren't paying attention. It was J. Crew. J. Crew goes on this like crazy run, and you you're telling Jack, you're like, I bought the fucking dress, it's in my closet. Like, do you actually have the dress and what you I got it, man?
SPEAKER_00You actually have it. I got it in my closet right now. It's in my closet right now. I bought it on eBay, god, forever ago, to remind me that there's always a social arb trade that you're missing out in the world. There's dude, that I think it was, I don't know, people, us weekly, one of those magazines on my coffee table. Dude, she was in that dress on everything, and it was right in front of my face. And it's like, how often does the first lady, you know, wear something like J. Crew? Right? And everything just made sense because at the time it was so hard for a company like J. Crew to break into a brand new demographic of like black Americans like that, really hard nut to crack. Michelle Obama at the time was like as big as it gets. And so she instead of going out and wearing some $10,000 dress, she's wearing this thing from J. Crew. And it was just like a moment for the company. And the fact that I missed that as you know, a so I was the only this is my pride was being a guy that caught on to those things. That's all I did. Uh, just shows you how many opportunities there are. By the way, there have never been more social arb opportunities than like right now. I've never seen anything like this in my career. Like, I can't keep up with them. I am missing them left and right. Like, I missed a monster one on coconut water a few weeks ago.
SPEAKER_02That was a good one, dude.
SPEAKER_00I mean, for me to miss that, because like my forte is oh, like I never miss a shoe trade. Like, I can't even tell you how many shoe trades I've made over the past 15 years. Every single time, like the shoe market shifts, like I nail the trade almost every time from Uggs to Crocs, like just all of them. Uh, vans back in the day with the white vans that sold that what went fire. Oh, damn Daniel. Damn Daniel, that's right.
SPEAKER_02Oh, that was a trade. Oh, hell yeah, 2010 trade.
SPEAKER_00Damn Daniel, dude, no say vans on fire. No, on fire. Um, so it by the way, people don't really understand how this works. It's not that like they can only sell so many pairs of white vans. The bottom line was the damn Daniel viral TikTok ultimately brought more eyeballs to Vans, got people thinking about Vans. Maybe they're in the mall, they're now that Vans is on their mind, they stop in, they check out the white vans, maybe they get something else, they get a t-shirt, whatever. It doesn't take much to move the needle of a company like that.
SPEAKER_02How big of a trade was that for you? Like, do you see this and you just it just goes off? The spidey senses start tingling.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, so so the way that I measure my trades is like the conviction level, right? So I, you know, low, medium, high conviction. If a trade is like high conviction or ultra high conviction, and nobody believes this, I had a video that came out recently, taught a video clip that everyone was ripping on because I talked about this QSR trade with Burger King and Popeyes and Tim Horton's. And how I lost one third of my liquid net worth in an hour. And people like, dude, as if the guy put a third of his liquid net worth in stock options that went to zero after. Yeah, I did, dude. I did. Okay, I lost that third. And by the way, a crypto trader wouldn't even blink their eye at that. Oh, yeah.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_00You're right, you know it. Like it, but but nobody does that in equities. I've been doing that forever. Yeah, high conviction trade. Listen, I'm a family guy today. Like, I I I really try to be more prudent in what I do. So I generally don't put a third of my whole portfolio in options, although it did happen again, again recently, and it worked in my favor with Amazon. So it does happen still. But yeah, I might put five to fifteen percent of my portfolio in a trade like that. And usually, you know, you know, I I try to make six to seven figures on a trade if it hits, if it's if it's you know, medium to high conviction. And it's all it's mostly options.
SPEAKER_02Speaking of Amazon, this isn't such a sidebar, but you uh you did an interview, I think it was a Graham Stefan interview, and you're telling this. I play this on stream, the stream was dying. The stream's you're the most requested guest ever after this clip. You you're talking about how you were at like a horse race or a flag football game or something with your friend's daughter, and she's like 10, and she's like, Chris, I have $500. Like I saved up. What should I buy? And you're like, okay, take this $500, put it, get 2x margin, borrow against it, get a thousand dollars, and put all of it into Amazon. Did she do it?
SPEAKER_00That's right. It was it was at a tennis tournament here in Dallas. Did she do it? I had just met this guy and his daughter. She was 11. He's like, she's got 500 bucks. She's thinking about opening up a brokerage account, investing 50 of it prudently. Can you help her out? I look at her in the face, I go, forget about that plan. You take that 500, you tell your dad to borrow another 500 on margin. Okay, you take the thousand dollars, you put all of it in Amazon, all of it. There's at least a 50% shot you're gonna 4x that money because Amazon's probably gonna 2x over the next few years. You're gonna 4x your money, you're gonna have $2,000, 50-50 shot that happens, like one or two percent chance that it this goes really bad and you lose it all. But you're 11 years old. Why do you care? It's $500. Do you want to make $2,000? She just thought I was insane. I think her dad thought I was insane. I actually don't know if they did it or not. I'm gonna find out. But dude, the trade would be looking good so far. She'd already be up. Dude, she would already be up to like, I don't know, Amazon's up 50. She were she already doubled her money almost. And that's that was like a couple months ago. So I mean, and I by the way, when they left, I said, listen, the trade goes totally bad. I will literally I'll pay you 500 bucks. I'll give it back to you. Because I felt I I was starting to feel like I shouldn't be saying this stuff to 11 year olds. Yeah, so so I and I told her, I was like, I'll give you the 500 as long as I'm not broke. And I honestly, if you lose all 500, I might be so broke I might not be able to give it to you. But I I do love that story, it was true.
SPEAKER_02That, yeah, that was a good one. I um, you know, I I'm reading this book right now. You you mentioned hedge funds uh a little while back, and I'm kind of obsessed with the hedge funds right now. It's called uh More Money Than God, and it's like uh the the fund of the decade every 10 years. So it has like Soros and Drucken Miller and Tiger and Paul Tudor Jones, and like it goes through it. And I'm like, yeah, I'm kind of obsessed with the hedge fund thing right now. And I think you've talked about it a couple times publicly how you Ran money for like a week and were like fuck this shit and you returned it. And then secondly, you are so vocal right now about how I don't know, just like dumb you think these funds are, specifically right now in this market, and how much edge there is. Like, where does that edge lie? And like, what are what are they good at and what are they not good at? And what is your general just like feeling of that scene?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I'm more comfortable like talking the truth about hedge funds because most of my buddies in the space have since left the space. So I don't feel as bad. Listen, by the way, I actually love guys that work at hedge funds. A lot of them are still my close friends. They're on what it's their career, it's their job, man. It's not the people, it's the institution. It it handcuffs you. It's wild to me. And by the way, there's no way that it used to be like this. Because when I talk to people and I find out how the best funds were actually operating like 20 years ago, 25 years ago, dude, they were so scrappy. Like calling calling supply chain, traveling Asia, getting the scoop inside back then, inside trading was basically legal. So they were all doing it in like the scrappiest ways ever. Like that was when you wanted to be in that business. When it was like, where can you find the alpha? You just go for like when you watch a show billions. It used to be more like that. But you know what happened like 10 years ago. The FCC came down hard. Now they're really strict about what information is public, what's private, what you can trade, what you can't trade. You got to document everything at a hedge fund, okay? You can't do anything shady and get away with this it these days. And people that work there, it's just a job, man. They don't really care. You know how you make money? You make money by not doing anything dumb. That's the number one takeaway from Wall Street. You have a career and you make money by looking really like smart and trustworthy and helping the fund raise a lot of capital and not doing anything stupid, right? Like you're not, you don't take like at bats for home runs in that industry. You just don't do it. And if the the the primary source of alpha, which I know it is, is like trying to make sense of what people are saying in comments on TikTok videos, you can't put that in your notes, man. Like you can't say that you lost, you know, this portfolio because you misinterpreted what a bunch of you know 25-year-old women were saying in comment data on TikTok. That's not cool. That's not that that's not gonna go over well with your 55-year-old, you know, boomer boss, right? Like they just you can't do that. So they're crippled because they can't adopt to the new way of trading because it just seems insane to like the boomer bosses that are still in control of a lot of these funds. So there's nothing behind the curtain, I promise you. They're really good. There's a lot of funds that are actually really good at algorithmic type of stuff, like, you know, making pennies on all the stuff. And like they do that incessantly. And that's just something that is foreign to me. I have no interest in it. You know, comp Renaissance Capital, there are still funds that are killer when it comes to figuring out how to institutionally make money no matter what, but by like, you know, getting between the margins. The Jane Street stuff. Yeah, but in terms of like finding real alpha, being really scrappy, knowing where to look, and just using your gut to put on big leverage trades on the information you find quickly, dude, they're not good at doing that. I mean, there are fast trading shops on Wall Street where you have pods, where there are small teams that have, you know, uh full autonomy to do whatever the hell they want with the money they manage. And some of those teams, the last because I've been working with some of those teams, you know, I did that at ticker tags. Some of those teams are savvy enough that they're willing to do that and they're kind of getting into this style of trading. But more so than not, no. In fact, I I won't name the fund because I have so much respect for the guy that is over the fund. He's like one of my idols. And I actually got to meet him recently and talk shop with him, which is the coolest thing in the world. But I did get invited when I was running ticker tags to go up to his fund and present to the entire, like all the teams after working with his data group for six months and having them vet my data for six months. I show up, sit in the coolest conference room in the coolest office I've ever been to in that industry. Not one pod showed up. Not one. And the and the data guys were just in the room going, dude, we're so sorry. Like we've been we've been telling everyone how well your data is working and like they need to learn this stuff. And at that moment, I was like, F you, F you, like I'm so out like of trying to like you know, teach these guys that that this is the way to think, this is the way to trade. And you know, ticker tags was hell for me. I kept it for years. I sold it to Jeffries Bank. Jeffries institutionalized it, used a lot of pieces of it, they poured money into it. But ultimately, I walked away from that experience five years, like working with the biggest guys on Wall Street, going, dude, they have nothing, nothing on us. They have nothing on us. Um, they are so crippled, they are so handcuffed, they are so lazy, uh, they're so trying to just protect their job and not willing to put themselves out there. And if every retail trader really saw what I got to see up close, they would have so much more confidence in themselves. Because some of the things that we are worst at is when we see everything clearly, we're like we doubt ourselves. Because like, there's no way that I am seeing this as just whomever in my bedroom, right? And and and yet, you know, XYZ fund that's you know managing five to 50 billion or 100 billion, that they don't see this. There's I must be missing something. I must be missing something, but you're not most of the time. No, you're not. And like if you were like, do you see the the moves on earnings? You see the moves, like they're not seeing this stuff. The only thing that they can see is transactional credit card data. That's it. Like that is their primary, and it has been for 10 years. That's their data source. And by the way, that data source is not that great. I i it's good. It's good. It's not nearly as good as what you know what I do. Um, I buy that data. I I spend six figures a year buying that data just for myself, just so I can see if the things that I'm seeing in conversational data sets is reflected in the data that hedge funds are paying for. Okay. So, like, that seems insane, right? Like, I just want to know if the thing that I'm seeing in a TikTok comment stream, right? If if that's showing up yet. So I'll give you the perfect example. Right now, uh I shit, I want to talk about this on my show actually, but like um, like like I'm looking at uh fuck it, let's just talk about it. Uh right now I'm looking at the sweet green uh wrap. Okay, so it's not really a trade yet. Uh sweet green came out with a wrap like uh eight days ago. Okay, and it has potential to make their product portable for the first time, right? Meaning like you could hand out, like hold it in your hand, take it with you, as opposed to being like salads. Salads are portable, but not as portable as like a rap. So what that means is there's potential, potential for a mega social ARP trade. So, so you have to have a prepared mind as a social arb trader. You have to know when something's about to happen that could be explosive, and you have to watch it every day and you have to know what you're looking for. So the first wave of conversational data is paid influencers. So, like almost everyone that's been talking about this has been a paid influencer, and that's cool. Sometimes you could have a you could have a viral moment just from paid influencers if they do a good enough job of convincing the world to go buy this stuff, right? So, what you're really looking for is the authenticity in what they're saying and whether it starts to translate outside of paid to actual consumers that take it viral. Now, it might take me a few weeks to figure this out, and and I I'm on the I'm on like the ledge right now. Like the reviews have been good, really good. It has potential to be a real game changer for sweet green, but I haven't seen enough yet to make that determination. But again, now that you know, you've got to be on it, right? So, like now, like you gotta like I am reading every review on TikTok every day of Sweet Green wraps. I'm reading every comment. I'm speaking to clerks, I'm going into sweet green, I'm having combos, I'm talking to customers. I'm uh and I'm doing this for a lot of different things. Sweet green is just one of them. And like you have to understand as a social up trader, you can't like become biased. You might want that trade to work, but you you know, you like you can't just convince yourself that it's a game changer because that's when you get into trouble. Um, for every hundred starts, you might get lucky and get one or two that fall out of the bottom of the funnel where everything is aligned, right? Like, dude, game changer moment for the company. Other traders don't believe it or haven't seen it yet. Nothing else is happening with this company that's more meaningful than this one thing that I'm trading. Well, in this case, it would be the rap, right? So there's a lot that has to happen for you to like get to the bottom of the funnel and actually trade in a big way.
SPEAKER_02How many physical locations have you been to so far to talk about?
SPEAKER_00So I've only been to I've only been to one. Okay. Okay, so like so far, but I've And what do you do when you get in there? What? What do you do when you walk in? Very casual. Just just keep by the way, if you if you act like you're like you know, like no one's gonna talk to you, just get in there, order it, talk to the people on the line, ask for the manager, be like, hey, dude, like what's is this thing is this moving the needle for you? Like, what's going on here? Like, I'm a I like you just gotta be as casual as you possibly go in there dress like an idiot, don't go in there in a suit or not, like they don't like they don't want to like give any information away, yeah. Um, and just have fun with it. And but I started sharing this one with a few people in my community, so we're all kind of doing it now, and we're kind of listening what I love about being um you know an attention ARP, social ARP trader is that's a community, and I never had a community before, ever. Like I said, I've been a lone wolf for decades, no one cared. People thought I was freaking insane with the stuff that I do. Um, I had to always do this stuff alone. Back in the day, I used to like put a comment on a Yahoo message board and wait 10 hours for one other comment to pop up. I joked to Howard Lindzen about this, you know, the guy started stock twits. Like, he was the same, same way. Like we both live through that world. So, like, I love that that as social art traders, like we can work together. Like, I'm like, hey, I have an idea, I have a thesis, here's what it is, and then like everyone does their own homework. Everyone's looking at different data sets, everyone's going around interviewing clerks. I mean, we did this during the pandemic. I had a guy in my community get in his little propeller plane and fly to a Peloton warehouse and like walk up the ramp to where they were packaging the Pelotons for the trucks and just hang out and start talking to the guys about deliveries and you know how you know whether they had enough inventory and like, dude. And then he took video of it and uploaded it to the Discord, like, you're a maniac, dude. But like, that's what it's about. This is what hedge funds do, okay. And I joked in my book Laughing at Wall Street, that's like 16 years old now. I was like, my dream is that to create a community that we would be infinitely larger than any hedge fund. Like, whatever a hedge fund thinks they have in terms of resources and people power and like diversity of opinion and research, like we will be a thousand X that big. How cool would it be to have a community that's that much more uh intellectually diverse, uh, that is working that much harder. And that any any research we need to do, we're doing it instantaneously. Like we have more people on the street. And that's what's has started to happen out of the dumb money community that you know we've been kind of just messing around with the last eight years. Uh and listen, now you crypto guys are coming in, so it's even potentially will get a lot bigger.
SPEAKER_02I was cracking up about the you wrote the book at like two million dollar PL. I was like, I should write a fucking book. Uh it's uh I was watching some of your old interviews like 16 years ago. It's it's classic.
SPEAKER_00Wait, wait, hold on. Here's the thing. Here's the thing. You gotta understand, you guys don't get this now. You crypto guys, you just don't get it. To do that from 2007 to 2010, nobody invested with concentration, nobody invested with leverage, crypto wasn't a thing, like it was fucking nuts, dude. Not to hundred extra money in three years was psychotic behavior back in 2007, okay, 2010. Like the market moves so slow. Investors were like turtles back then, okay. You guys didn't enter this space forever, and so now you guys, yeah, the whole concept of YOLO and like all this shit, dude, psychotic behavior. Like I was the only psychopath back in the mid-2000s to late 2000s. Like I was the only one. Now, yeah, there's a million, there's 50 million of you guys. You know what's so crazy? Even today, I think you can check this. Okay, I think there's something like 30 to 50-ish million active crypto traders. I don't know if that's remotely. Do you think that's remotely right?
SPEAKER_02I don't know about active right now. One point, definitely. I think it's a lot smaller at the moment, but I think at one point, yes.
SPEAKER_00There, there are barely that many active equity traders. So, yeah, dude, very active? Absolutely, barely. I know that for a fact. So, like the majority of equity traders are still fundamental or technical, but even the technical crowd, there's not tens of millions of technical traders that are just all day long doing that stuff. Um, and and and honestly, most of the active traders are those technical guys. So the number of people that chase narrative in 2026 are it's still like that big, like that big. Um, it has it hasn't like we haven't had our moment yet. It's still in front of us, and I think it's gonna probably take you guys jumping ship and coming over.
SPEAKER_02So give me a take on this. Like, I the first time I ever traded an a stock option, it was maybe like 2019, and I basically just wiped a couple accounts and then got started with NFTs and crypto. So this like style of trading is pretty much all I know, and really as a co uh post-COVID phenomena is really all that I know. Like, how much has evolved pre-COVID to post-COVID and the way you look at markets, think about markets, observe uh activity in markets?
SPEAKER_00I think the key thing that has changed uh is that all of the world's communications have become digitized. Yeah, okay. That one thing is all that matters because if you're trading attention, you have to have the ability to surface shifts in attention. And if you think about what I used to do back in the day, um I would have to actually go talk to people and go to the mall and have real conversations, even on Facebook. Yeah, yeah. As crazy as that sounds, like Facebook was a social grid. So you didn't have access to things that existed outside of your own social grid. Instagram was a social grid, uh grid. Uh now the the the it's an information map. Okay, so social channels have become information maps. They're open, they're not contained to the people that you know and follow. So you could actually see in real time everything that everyone in the world is speaking about as they're speaking about it in real time. That is sick alpha. Like it's almost too much alpha. So, really, it's just a matter of like, where do you start? How do you go about doing this to make the most of your time? And over the next few years, I know what's going to happen. Like, AI is going to take over this space because there's just too much information flying too quickly. You need the assistance of a agentic AI to help you assess what the world is talking about and how that is connected to investable opportunities in the market.
SPEAKER_02So, something you talk about a lot is you know, turning conversational data about people talking into about products into trades. But something that's just crypto is familiar with and it is happening a lot in the stock market right now is conversational data of people talking about tickers and sort of like a memetic meme. Like there's this, you know, the Serenity account right now is going crazy. There's the Citrini picks, like, there's a lot of like people talking about stock names or coins and bringing this like momentum behind it. Is there like how do you uh think about that? Is there value in that?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I mean there's definitely value in that, but here's the thing um the reaction time is so compressed uh with those moves that yeah, you can make an absolute killing if you're quick. And I do understand how crypto traders naturally would be oriented towards uh alpha that is concrete, dependable, correlated alpha that you know is likely to actually work. Um, the type of attention that I'm trying to read is it uh it has more nuance to it. Got it, meaning that you know there's there's a a larger window of reaction time and there's a bigger opportunity to actually find that information and make a trade because it's interpretable and it kind of like happens over time where ticker data is like I like to take it if everyone's talking about a ticker, like you boom, if you're on it, you might have minutes to maybe hours, minutes to hours where the type of attention orb that I trade is usually days to weeks and sometimes months. It just I prefer it because I'm not a guy that likes to be tuned in. Like I like having a life, like I don't want to trade all day. I don't I'm not a day trader, like I'm not glued to a screen. Listen, dude, 20 years ago, maybe I might have loved it. Not anymore, man. Like I I love life, dude. I hang out with people all day long. Like I like to do my work late night when I'm just alone and I have chill time to, you know, do my research. So it doesn't fit with my lifestyle, but I get how it would fit with a crypto trader's lifestyle. So but don't don't stop theirs, what I'm saying. Like, yeah, that that's a viable like way to trade, but you shouldn't stop a ticker because you're leaving 95% of the opportunity on the floor.
SPEAKER_02So speaking of these longer horizon thinking, I I mean, look, I we were trading oil on the stream. Because we wanted some volatility. And for the first time in my life, I'm monitoring geopolitics, which I realize is a lot harder than I imagined. I'm not sure what I imagined, but it was difficult to do. And I got pretty one-shot black pill, like doomer pilled from this whole situation. Along with most of FinTwit. And I'm watching as Trump is, you know, threatening to drop a nuke on Carg Island in Iran. And I'm doom posting and you're on Twitter and you're basically like, what? There's a war, bought more Amazon. What? There's a war, bought more bloom energy. You go on Graham Staff and what? Bought more Bloom Energy, bought more Amazon. You just keep I'm I'm like, man, I thought Chris Cabelo was smart. Like, what the fuck is this? You know, I'm like, this is this is supposed to be my guy. What is this? And then boom, rips it back, you know, by by the fight, by the fear, whatever. All-time highs on both. And so from this framework that you trade off of, how like to as well as you could articulate, how are you able to develop such deep conviction in Amazon, but you're not just watching the chart, you're not watching it lose structure, you're not buying into a potential like World War III type of outcome.
SPEAKER_00Well, probabilities and outcomes, that's all that matters, right? So is is is there a probability that we could have gone down that path of World War III and bombing Iran? Yeah, I was aware of it. I assessed the probability of it, and then I looked at the probability of that not happening and what would happen. And I looked at the outcome of both, and I thought the trade was much better on the side that it wouldn't happen.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. Right.
SPEAKER_00So, okay, so like, yeah, could it have happened? Yeah, let's call it five percent realistically. Yeah, it would, it was somewhere between it was somewhere between one and five max, right? So I'm looking at a 95% probability of it not happening for very obvious reasons. I mean, come on, like the the incentives. I kept telling people over and over again, look at the incentives. You always follow the incentives. Forget about what people say, look at what the incentives are. The incentives are he can't have it, he just can't have it. Okay, so is is there some possibility that Trump would lose his mind and get so emotional that he literally doesn't care about politics anymore? And he just says, do it. And he, yeah, that could have happened one to five percent. Okay, so I think that's a reasonable probability. Okay, now I'm looking at the flip side: 95%. It doesn't materialize, and we're gonna see the market normalize, and then my trades are gonna hit, okay? And and it was a very obvious trade to me. I think one of the biggest traps for investors is noise. All of institutional Wall Street gets trapped with noise. Why? Because they have to take the Long Island Railroad into the city every day with other suits, and then they go to the office and they're with the same rich dudes, watching the same CNBC, and they all get caught up in this whirlwind of be. I've seen it, Matt. I spent years deep in the trenches, like with these guys hanging with them, going to drinks with them at night and dinners and all the stuff. Uh, they all think the same because they all hang out with each other all the time. And they watch, they read the same paper, the same news, they watch the CNBC is going on in their office. I mean, if you wonder who the 80,000 people that watch CNBC are, it's like 50,000 of the 80,000 are TVs and finance offices, right? Like that's that's what it is. That of the I think it's like 80,000 people watch CNBC or something like that. It's embarrassing, right? That's insane. But I I don't know the exact number, but like it's embarrassingly low. I'll just tell you that. And I think like roughly half of the people that are watching like broadcast finance news are working in a finance company, right? And so they're part of that of that of that like echo chamber, yes, dude. And it's just it's like you you got as a retail trader, you gotta get the hell out. It's insane for you to be a retail trader following mainstream news because like why would you do that to yourself, dude? Like the I think the biggest alpha, the biggest magic you can have is just to figure out how to break out of the matrix and just think independently for yourself. There's not a lot of that happening, even with retail traders. And I think that's the biggest opportunity uh for just anyone trying to win at this game, is to like believe in yourself and just get the hell out of that echo chamber.
SPEAKER_02Beautiful take. And you know, something unique about your Amazon Bloom trade, at least from my eyes, is that it's a little bit different from your typical like J. Crew or Sweet Green or Vans, like social arbitrage, where at least how I've imagined a lot of your trades, it's like these sort of smaller companies, a specific product goes really viral on TikTok or on Instagram or on Twitter, and you find edge, you capture that spread, you make a lot of money. Amazon is not one specific, you know, product that's gone super viral, or like Blue Man, like these are just like much bigger trades on a longer time horizon, part of a much bigger mega trend. And so, how do you apply your strategy to these bigger, like mega trend type of ma uh major caps in in trades?
SPEAKER_00The biggest misconception, the biggest misconception uh in social ARP trading is that it only works with small companies. Most of my trades have been big companies, nice, most of them since day one. Um, I wrote an entire chapter in my book about the Apple iPhone one when it first came out, and how Apple is one of the biggest trades of my career. There was no stock more covered in the world than Apple, and yet there was no stock that Wall Street got more wrong than Apple. Every analyst, every tech reporter, every big multi-billion dollar hedge fund guy all thought that they knew what was going to happen and that the iPhone was going to fail. It didn't have a keyboard, they didn't have access to a good network. Apple knows nothing about telecommunications. We've seen this story before, blah, blah, blah. Right? Like, and everybody jumped on that bandwagon. And I was just like, I held it in my hand, man. I held that iPhone one in my hand at my pool party on the top of my condo. And I will never forget that moment we passed that phone around. And people were like, dude, this is this is insane. This is actually insane. I looked at that screen and I played around with it for like two minutes. I was like, this is going to be the biggest trade of my life. And what made it even better was that that damn data network they were on, ATT in Manhattan, didn't work through buildings at the time. So even if you wanted to get an iPhone, you really couldn't if you lived in Manhattan or worked in Manhattan. So most of the people that worked on Wall Street had very limited insight into friends, family, co-workers that had an iPhone that used an iPhone. So they were kind of oblivious to the magic that was happening. And like, so it was just like this perfect storm of bias and like skewed information. But that was the biggest company ever, man. Like Amazon, I traded Amazon. Amazon was one of my biggest trades before at the birth of AWS. When like I was deep into the software sector, like I was a sales guy. Like I my friends were selling, like working at technology companies. And we were studying essentially Reddit forums with technologists and monitoring every day the lift in the volume of communication around cloud computing as a word. Literally, we were just measuring how many times the word cloud computing was popping up in technology Reddit forums. And like every day it was accelerating, accelerating. I was like, dude, what is happening? And it was very clear to us that essentially every major company in the world was assessing moving to cloud computing, and that Amazon was going to be the primary beneficiary of that. And before investors picked up on it, we knew it because we were looking at what people were speaking about. And before anybody does anything, they speak about it. They talk about it with their colleagues, with their friends, they get their opinions about it. There is no better source of alpha anywhere in the world unless you can get inside the mind of humans, which maybe we will eventually, than reading what people say. Okay. And so, like people will talk about what movie they're gonna see, what they're gonna eat for dinner, uh, what peptide they want to get on, they will talk about the new product they want to buy, they will talk about everything in their life. You just have to know where to look. Okay, but you it listen being an attention arb trader, you got to get to the absolute earliest detection point. You want to be first every single time you want to be first. And it this is like ground zero of where thing the change that we're looking for starts. It starts in people's heads and then it's they they talk about it. Speak it, right?
SPEAKER_02You know that the pep you mentioned peptides, it brings me to a uh interesting question, which is like how do you think about the best expression of an idea? Because uh oftentimes in the iPhone example, it's obvious you you you buy Apple, or in the AWS example, you buy Amazon. The peptides is an interesting one because everyone is talking about this forever, and that's one where it's a little bit more unclear. It's like, is it Hymns? Is it Eli Lilly? Like, how do you identify the best expression of your idea and then figure out whether or not it's tradable?
SPEAKER_00Okay, great question. First of all, on peptides, I'm not there yet. I mean, we're planning a big peptide episode where we are going to kind of dissect all the theoretical peptide trades on Dumb Money Live.
SPEAKER_02We need that.
SPEAKER_00Uh, but there's a lot of research that goes into an episode like that.
SPEAKER_01Yeah.
SPEAKER_00Um there are two ways to look at it. One is who will be the real beneficiary of this? Uh, who, where will this be a needle meter? Is this a needle mover for HIMS? Is it a needle mover for some other platform? But there's a better way to look at this in early days. Sometimes it matters less who the beneficiary of that change will be. And what really matters is what will other investors think, right or wrong in the early days, right? So if other investors think that if you come to the determination that other investors will believe that HIMS will be the number one beneficiary of the peptide explosion that I believe we're going to see happen over the next number of months, not years, but months, then you could trade that even if you don't believe that HIMS is going to be a true beneficiary. Right? You just have to exit, you know, at the at the right time. Uh so like it is hard work though, because like you have to really figure out is there a needle mover here? And if there is a needle mover, who is it? Right? Like, and and are there other things happening at this company that are way, way more important than this one thing that I'm trading, peptides. Right? You don't know. But I'll tell you this peptides, it it's a freight train, it's coming for us. Fast. No one, no one is going to stop this freight train. I said the same exact thing about um Ozempic back in the day.
SPEAKER_02Did you trade?
SPEAKER_00When I was trading uh uh Novo, people thought I was I'd lost my mind. I told people I said this might be the biggest pharmaceutical drug of our entire life.
SPEAKER_02What was your tick on that? You tick tock?
SPEAKER_00Um, so it was TikTok, yes. And I was basically watching every single TikTok video and reading every comment of every woman that was taking um, you know, no, it was taking Ozempic at the time. And it was so clear to me that this was an avalanche. If you listen, most of my career, a lot of my big trades have been front-running female and youth trends because those are the trends that Wall Street tends to be slower at catching on to. Uh, so I understand what moves the female mind probably better than most middle-aged white guys, right? But uh so I realize that there is nothing, almost nothing more important to that females than weight. Okay, I've always known this. It's not, this shouldn't be a big secret to anyone. And somebody creates a miracle drug that will shed 15 to 25 percent of your weight without having to do anything. Are you can't do I even have to explain this? Yeah, and I get to inject it.
SPEAKER_02It's like, yeah.
SPEAKER_00I sat across from my buddy Howard Lindzen uh at the Crescent Hotel years ago, and I told him this, and he looked at me with glass eyes. He's like, What are you talking about, dude? I'm like, drop everything and put all your money into Novo right now because I'm telling you, this thing is going to fly. It's going to fly.
SPEAKER_02So when you need that, how much time is spent on like financials and revenue and like the current price and what it's trading at right now? What percent of your thesis is relying on that?
SPEAKER_00Virtually none. I just have to know. I just have to know is this a needle mover for the company or not? And by the way, AI will tell you that in two seconds. You don't even have to do the work anymore. Uh, and is there anything else happening at the company right now that if my thesis is correct and if the investment community comes to learn what I know is a fact over the next six months, is there something else happening at this company that could be more meaningful than that? And you know, AI will do a great job helping you with that exercise. So you might not have to actually do anything anymore in terms of real fundamental work. Uh, but like honestly, this is the equivalent of like a hair drug for men. Like, I've always said that if someone creates a miracle drug for hair, I will sell every single stock in my portfolio. I'm taking it, I will put it in.
SPEAKER_02It's hair.
SPEAKER_00I'll make a billion dollars on that trade. If someone invents a cure for hair loss that reverses hair loss, I will make one billion dollars on that trade. I will be the most heavily invested, most levered psychotic trader around that drug the second that information comes out that someone has cracked the car.
SPEAKER_02You know about the phenasteride monoxidal stat?
SPEAKER_00It no, it's not good, it's not good enough. It's not good enough. And it has too many side effects. So I'm not listening that it won't I'm not saying it won't be successful. I'm saying it's not the magic pill that GLP1s were for weight loss. It's not it.
SPEAKER_02Fair, fair, fair, fair. Wait, I've I'm thinking I have a question. There's this uh a friend of mine, his name is Good Alexander on Twitter, he's a really sharp guy, and and he talks about this concept of hallucination yield, which is basically if everyone's asking LLMs um what to buy and when they should buy it, the hallucination yield is basically the delta between the price target Chat GPT gives you and what a stock is currently trading at. And in theory, if everyone is outsourcing their information to LLMs, what the LLM tells you to buy or suggests you invest in will have an increasing impact on market flows in the future. Like, what do you think about that uh concept?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, it's absolutely true. And you know, the thought that someone's asking an LLM what to buy makes me want to just shoot myself. Uh I did the number I I had a multitude of people that that had texted and emailed me the week of meta earnings, the big earnings week for everyone that were like, dude, Chat GPT is telling me that Meta is most likely to explode.
SPEAKER_02Screaming to buy meta, by the way.
SPEAKER_00Dude, I was like, I almost shorted Meta just based on that. I had no position in meta money. I didn't care, didn't care about Meta. Uh I was I was like, dude, what the hell are all you guys doing? Like, that's not how you use AI for trading. Like, you use AI as an assistant to help you with deep research. So, like, as I just said, I come up with a thesis, then I want to ask very granular specific questions and have the AI just do the dirty work research for me that contributes to supporting my thesis or not. But I don't ever ask it blindly what stocks to buy. I mean, that that's just not how LLMs work. If you know how they work, that will it's a fool's errand to like go about using them in that way.
SPEAKER_02I like that take. Uh, one potential social arb trader that's been getting talked about a lot, I'm sure you've seen the AP swatch. What do you think about that? What do you are you in the trade? Are you thinking about the trade? A lot of people in my chat are excited about it.
SPEAKER_00Um, so the there there are potentially two waves to that trade. The first wave of that trade is being a really astute uh social arb trader and getting in that trade early before anyone.
SPEAKER_02Two weeks ago, yeah.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, that's right. You knew it was coming, you made an assessment for the reaction that it would have, especially amongst uh investors, because there are a lot of investors that are big watch guys, okay? So this okay, this is part of the culture here. You it to be a great uh um attention ARP trader, you have to understand culture. And so the demographic that this is gonna going to hit just happens to be the demographic invest as well. Okay, and that matters. So that trade's long gone. So there's a potential second wave of the trade. The second wave of the trade, potentially, is that this weekend becomes more of a mass market media event, meaning that we're going to see such outlandish lines on Saturday morning at swatch stores.
SPEAKER_02I have a kid ordering a line right now, camping out three days ahead because I want one for the stream. There's we have there's lines, New York everywhere right now.
SPEAKER_00I know. I listen, man. I got a strategy. I know, you know.
SPEAKER_02My bad, my bad. Keep going.
SPEAKER_00You know, I'm gonna I'm gonna be there too. Keep going. Uh so I I get it. I listen, I love this stuff, man. I love it. I I dude, I have done this so many times. Like, I used to trade Target collabs, okay, back in the day, when it would move the needle for Target because it would bring so many people into Target that it would be. Well, you talked about it.
SPEAKER_02What what was the Sony? What was it?
SPEAKER_00So Masoni was one. I mean, there's so many. There's like dozens, dozens of them. I bought the Masoni bike uh as a sylvenir and just kept it in my garage because I made so much money off those charts. So, but I okay, so if it becomes a true like mass market media moment this weekend, that it becomes a massive news story on Sunday and Monday, what we might see are people outside of the watch market. We might see more retail investors, just general retail investors, say, dude, I gotta own Swatch. This is crazy, right? And you might see a pop on Monday uh from the weekend madness. And I would say that the time to kind of exit out of that more or less would probably be Monday. So you'd want to kind of get in that trade now, exit Monday, but that's only if you believe that they are gonna knock it out of the park this weekend and it's going to be an otherwise slow uh market news kind of weekend, right? For markets, and and this one's gonna be in this the in the journal on Monday. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And like everyone's gonna be talking about it. Yeah, it could have some juice. It's it the big trade's over. The obvious easy trade on swatch is over.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, 100%. Do you you did this interview? Uh I don't know, you've done a lot of interviews, but uh I was listening to some old ones, and you mentioned you take two trades a year. And so, like, do you get fired up about a swatch like scalp?
SPEAKER_00Or you're kind of like I do more than two now, a lot more than two now. I Used to only be able to do two. Sometimes I can get 10 plus high convictions in a year now. Uh, it's been happening, like it happened last year, it was a monster year for me. Last year might end up being the best year I've ever had in the market, and then this year is turning into another one of those years. 2020 formally was the best year before that. Um so the more change, and the quicker the change, and the bigger the change, the bigger the opportunity for a you know, social arb trader, some of the trades on change. Uh so yeah, the love of the game. I love it, man. I it's it's not about the money always, like it's not about the money. Sometimes I just like these little fun ones, uh because they're just fun and it like it's nostalgic for me. And I'll and I used to trade movie releases. You know, the last big one I did was Barbie.
SPEAKER_02Oh, are you gonna make the movie? The trading movie?
SPEAKER_00Well, you know, I I did have a two-second clip in uh Dumb Money, the movie that they put us in. If you watch it, it's about an hour in to look out for us in that movie. I don't know, man. I don't, you know what? I do feel this way though. I feel that if you fast forward 10 years, the concept of trading, investing, this is gonna be one of the biggest things on earth. I I think I think we are going to have hundreds of millions of guys like us that are living and dying and eating trading, right? Like and investing, and because it it will become a primary means for wealth building uh in the age of abundance when the world is just rapidly changing and it is really hard to differentiate yourself through purely through your human output. Uh and it's more about capital allocation. So the cult concept of allocating capital will be something that we'll all have our eyes glued to. And I by the way, I'm uh transitioning a bit. Like my passion in life is people. It's like I really just love people, man. I love people that are doing great things. And while I'm a big believer in AI, I've been talking about AI for three plus years, saying it's the biggest opportunity of your life as an investor is to invest in AI. I've been getting beat up, especially early days. Like three years ago, I got beat up so hard for this. Now people are coming around on it. I now think that there's a massive opportunity in people. Like, and what I mean by that is if you are one of the few people that can survive this AI super cycle and develop a brand for yourself, a voice for yourself, a following. Like, I think if we fast forward five to 10 years, like podcasters, the ones that truly have a unique, strong, raw voice uh that are deeply connected with other humans, will be the new athletes worth hundreds of millions of dollars each. Like, I truly believe that's take, by the way. That traders beautiful take. Yeah, and and I want to help them. Like, I because I find that fascinating. And I think some of the biggest future podcasters are petrified of ever putting a mic in front of them. That's not just their iPhone with doing TikToks. So, like, my next big move is to help find the next generation of like human creators and help them become like hundred plus million dollar brands five to ten years from now. Like, I think that's the big ARB trade right now. And by the way, for me, it's just fun because I've been, like I said, man, like I get joy out of being around really interesting, ambitious, colorful people that are just balls to the wall trying to do something crazy and big. And like they like doing things outside of conventional business, which that's content creators, right? Like, I just want to hang out with other content creators, help them. So, like, that's gonna be the thing that I do next, which means because I know what's happening. You guys are getting in my world, you're gonna make my world harder. So, like, you know, like I'm gonna start to phase out of just you know, invest, you know, four or five, six hours a day of social art research. Like, that'll become less.
SPEAKER_02So I used to scream this takearound. I used to scream crypto influencers with the new celebrities, and I would always joke, like, we're gladiators in the arena, we're like the modern day warriors and shit. What where does financial media go? Um, we do this every day. Where does this you you do financial media? There's it's it's honestly a relatively small group.
SPEAKER_00Um, no man, you know why it's small? Where does it go? Because it's boring. Finance is boring, dude. And I'm gonna tell you right now, other than you crazy ass crypto guys, crypto is boring to most of us. Like just boring as hell, dude. Like most like normal people that aren't crypto traders, okay, or like or like uh you know, technical traders, uh, or like finance heads. Like, we hate finance because finance is boring, dude. So here's the thing here's going to be the pivotal moment for finance is when the entire world, whether it happens slowly or quickly, starts to invest like I do. Because the shit that I do is not boring. Okay, and yes, and and and when the world wakes up to the fact that this is where the alpha is, all of a sudden you're going to have a billion people watching finance creators and like become like looking for alpha in their life, looking for alpha on TikTok, looking for alpha on in YouTube videos, like anywhere where they see the world changing, they're connecting dots and they're like, dude, can I get rich off the fact that I just sat in this car, a Tesla back in 2016-17? Yeah, you can, man. You can. Okay.
SPEAKER_02Wait, what's the blocker? Like, why hasn't why what's the blocker and why hasn't a GME type of moment happened again? I guess it's a little bit different.
SPEAKER_00Nobody, nobody believes my story. Like, people would rather believe that you can get rich off of a meme stock or a crypto coin than than the fact that you could actually get rich through real companies that are benefiting from real change that's happening in the world. For some odd reason, nobody wants to believe that you can do what I've done. They either don't believe that I've done it, or they believe that I'm some weird anomaly that can't be replicated. Meanwhile, I have thousands of people in my community that are just regular guys and women, more guys than women that have regular jobs, that have been doing this now for three or five or seven years, and they're like, dude, I'm averaging like 30 or 40 percent annualized, and all I'm doing is connecting dots from what I see in the real world to companies that are benefiting from it. And they're like, I don't even know how to thank you. I'm like, dude, like you just did. Because like the fact that I know what it's like to have a regular job and to be capped. I know, but don't get me wrong, my regular job, I was making a ton of money, like a quarter of a million a year, but that was not enough for me. But I was still capped. I was like, dude, I either got to go get some other random job, and maybe it's better, maybe it's worse. But like, dude, I'm not going any higher in this job. And a lot of people are in that scenario, but they're capped at like 50K or 80K or 90 or 100. And they will never make more money than that, ever for the rest of their life. Yeah, ever. Okay, other than maybe some inflationary moves. There's only one way out. If you're a regular person with a regular job, the only crack that you have of building generational wealth is to come to terms with the fact that you can be a great investor. And by the way, you can just do it on the side and you can have fun with it. You don't have to work with technicals, you don't have to be this pedigreed Wharton grad. You don't have to understand finance at all, especially in the day in the day of AI. All you have to do is figure out how to observe the world around you and connect the dots of change to companies that are either benefiting or being harmed by the change you see happening in the world around you, which by the way, most of that seeing is like watching videos on TikTok and reading comments. How fun is that, dude? Like, if that's not fun, a fun way to make money, I don't know what is. What's your screen time every day? You know, it it historically I used to spend about four hours a day doing this. I am uh more distracted than I've ever been, and I'm more interested in diversifying how I spend my time, whatever time I have left in the world doing things I really enjoy. And don't get me wrong, I really enjoy this, but I've been doing this a long time. And I've like I've made way more money than I ever thought I could make from it. And now I'm like starting to have more fun in my life. I'm like hang, I'm starting to spend more time with friends and family and hanging out and just doing fun stuff. So I'd say two hours a day, meaningfully now, every night, that I'm dissecting comments on TikTok videos, not four, and by the way, that's usually only like five or six days a week, where it used to pretty consistently be seven. Even if I was going out, I'd get home at like one in the morning and I'd start cranking like one to three or one to four.
SPEAKER_02That's a realistic target you just threw out there.
SPEAKER_00It dude, anybody can do this. I dude, there's no excuses, dude. And there's so much other stuff. I talk about this in all my other interviews. Like, you gotta bucket your money, you gotta have a designated account to be ballsy with, right? And like, don't put your kids' retirement in that account. Start a new account, like only put money in there that you could take big risk with, you know, start making trade-offs in your life, start balling with a new account with risk capital. But dude, don't start now. Just it can anybody can do it.
SPEAKER_02Okay, I have two, two more. I'll let you go really quick. Yeah, number one is there's this uh reminiscence of a stock operator, Jesse Livermore. He has this concept of like, I don't know what he calls it, like acts of God or something. When he he has a generational setup, a great trade, and then some bullshit completely out of his control, you could have never forecasted, happens, blows the trade up, he loses money. You have this one story about Frozen and the dolls that came out, and it was like a generational trade, but the company was bankrupt, they printed a bunch of stocks, sold it on your head, you lost a bunch of money on the trade. Any other fun examples of that?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I mean, there's never a such a thing as a sure thing in investing. Just know there's always something. Uh those are the two, those are the two that stick in my head, quite honestly. Uh, that damn frozen doll. Uh, the fact that there was a hedge fund that sold their entire position the day of the biggest earnings report in the company's history. And I nailed the trade. I nailed the fact that that frozen doll was going to be a game changer for them. It was the number one best-selling toy in the world. And stock was up 30% pre-market and ended up the day down 20 or 30% because a fund sold 10%. Oh my god they they owned 10% of the company and they dumped the entire position in one day. I don't even know how they pulled that off. Uh, but they did it because they sold into strength. They're like, they've they've been wanting to dump out those shares for years, dude. And as an investor, you will never know. Uh, also, as an investor, you will never know if there's going to be a macro market movement that's going to wreck your trade. As an investor, you will never know if something random pops up for that company that just was off your radar. There are so many ways for your trade to go bad. It's all about probability and outcomes. And as long as you understand that there's no such thing as a sure thing, and hey, I'm willing sometimes to put double digits of my portfolio into a single trade, all options. I'm willing to live with the fact that I might lose 10, 20, even 30% of my liquid net worth if something bad happens in a second. Uh, but that's because the objective of what I'm going for is big, right? Like I'm trying to build a billion-dollar charitable foundation. I have to take big swings in my life if I want to get there. Um, and also I'm in it to win it. Like, I want there's something fun about having you know a 20-year audited track record of you know, 70%. And like that's something I'm really proud of that I thought I would never be able to pull off. When I wrote Laughing at Wall Street in 2010, I was only three years into this journey. How old were you? And there was a uh God, that was 2010, 20, 16 years ago. So I was like mid uh 30s, uh young 30s, I guess. Wow. Uh young 30s. So I thought there was a chance that it was a fluke, that I was just like, you know, I was an anomaly and I could never keep that up. Maybe I could do it for two more years. It's like, oh, can I push it to 10? I was like, can I do 15? Now I'm at 18, and all I want, I just want two more years. Um, because I believe in the methodology, and I want to be able to say, hey, this methodology has worked for 20 years, right? And there's something fun. I don't know what that means. Is it the best retail trader in history? I think it's probably close to it. I know there's some other crazy traders out there that live in the shadows that have never been publicized or quiet and are probably doing just as well as I'm doing somewhere in the world. Uh, but I want to show that a normal regular guy can pull this off without having that, you know, not working for a hedge fund. That you can do it, you can make hundreds of millions of dollars in the market, starting with like a $20,000 account. I want to show that that's possible.
SPEAKER_02I can't wait to see the audit. Okay, last question before a sign-off. You did this interview like four years ago, I think four or five, six years ago, maybe, and you're talking to this guy, and you like ask him, Are you prepared for like if the biggest earthquake in America hits California? Like, uh, what are you gonna do with your money? I'm prepared. I think about this all day. What do you do when the biggest earthquake hits America? And are you actually like, are you thinking about natural disaster trades?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, of course, dude. I so I call this having a prepared mind. Okay, this is one of the easiest trades you will ever make. Basically, as an investor, you should have 20 scenarios. Each of those scenarios maybe has a 5% likelihood of happening in your lifetime. You know exactly what you're gonna do if and when that scenario plays out. It could be an earthquake in California, it could be a news report that comes out that someone just found the magic pill for baldness, male pattern baldness, like I was talking about. And you should have 20 of those, 30 of those, right? They're all unlikely to happen at any moment in time, but collectively, it is highly likely that one or two or three of those will happen over your lifetime. And if it happens on a weekday during market hours, that's the grand slam because you will be one of the only people in the world that's been sitting there and waiting for it. And maybe you set a Google alert for it, right? Uh, and you know exactly what you're going to trade. Now it sounds dumb, but it actually takes humans and hedge funds a pretty long time once something happens to kind of assess it, to do research, to think like, okay, what am I gonna do about this? What's my play? You would think that in 2026 that the market is so efficient, it is so inefficient when it comes to any low probability scenario. Like, I tell people as a joke, if it came out on CNN right now that we just discovered an asteroid that is 100% going to hit Earth in two years, and we are done, we are over, and you saw like 10 other mainstream news channels that were like, this is real, and the president comes on, even then, your brain is gonna be like not clocking it quickly enough. You're gonna be like, you need time. Like, we need time to process. What you want to do is. So, what are you doing in that scenario? What? What are you doing in that scenario? That's a longer conversation. Okay, and but like it doesn't matter. There are trades to be had. And by the way, AI will help you with these trades. The trades almost don't even matter because AI will help you with them. You just need to be mentally prepared for these low probability scenarios, including another pandemic, by the way.
SPEAKER_02Yeah.
SPEAKER_00Because when one of them happens, you want to be able to move in real time. The difference between moving in a matter of minutes and moving in a matter of hours might be the biggest trade of your entire life. Because if you could move in minutes with high conviction with leverage, when one of those 20 low probability things actually starts to materialize, you will make the biggest trade of your life. And that's the only trade you ever need to make to be a top 1% or even one-tenth of 1% investor. And people do not pay enough respect to the fact that all you need to do is have a little preparation, do a little homework. I got a lot of these. I don't talk about them because I don't want like the whole world to be onto all my low probability trades, but there are a ton of them. You just need to mentally prepare. Because if you don't mentally, I promise you one thing, you will not pull the trigger on that trade unless you've been thinking about it for years. If you've been thinking about it for years, you will pull that damn trigger so hard because you I've been waiting. You have been waiting for it to happen. So the second it happens, you don't, I don't care where you are, you could be in your car, you will pull over the side of the road, put on the trade, like it it will happen.
SPEAKER_02Don't tell me the plan, but which outcome are you the most prepared for?
SPEAKER_00Man, I I mean, I am pretty prepared for that disaster outcome. The disaster outcomes are pretty easy trades, and you know they're coming, right? Like you know, you know there's another virus coming at some point, dude. I hate saying it, but like in the age, in the age of, by the way, also in the age of AI, you know, as as much as I like to stay optimistic about this, there are some bad actor things that are going to happen in the next 10 or 15 years because of the democratization of intelligence. The democratization of intelligence is gonna result in some of the greatest breakthroughs in all of humanity. It is also going to result in some of the scariest stuff that we have ever seen. So you just gotta be prepared for both. You gotta be prepared for both. It's happening. The cool thing about AI is that stuff is gonna happen quickly. You've already seen it in the markets, right? So if you're this is why I tell crypto traders, equity traders cannot process information quickly. They just can't. They've been doing this so slowly for so many decades. You guys, as crypto traders, your brains, your neurons are hitting way quicker than equity traders. Also, you guys are willing to take risks, you're not you're accustomed to concentration, you're not afraid of leverage, and you're not afraid of losing a crap ton of money when you're wrong. So, like, you are in the driver's seat to like own equity traders once you kind of get comfortable with this world. So, hey, I I'm happy to see you, man. Like, like, welcome to it.
SPEAKER_01I'm happy to see you. I'm happy.
SPEAKER_00I I can't wait to like I love watching other guys that are even ballsier and younger and quicker than me, like make it in this world of social arb, attention arb. This is what I've been waiting for. Like, I just want to see other guys, and maybe even someday women, though I doubt it. They they like are so afraid of this world, uh get into this space and crush it and crush it. Because every time they do, there's an there's an institution on Wall Street that is so pissed off by it. They're so pissed off at it. We will literally dismantle that world like one trader at a time.
SPEAKER_02When you say the funniest thing about talking about the natural disaster happening is you know, if it happens to be within market hours, which sounds ridiculous to me, are you on the perps wave, 24 7 markets, hyperliquid, perps? What do you think about that concept?
SPEAKER_00I am not. This is where I'm like an old school guy. You know, I I should be. You listen, you're right. I should be, and maybe I'll get on. But I'm kind of like semi-retired, man. I'm just like, I know it sounds crazy. I'm just, I just don't care as much as I used to. Um fair. So like getting on to new things for me, I just don't care. And but it I should be on it. I absolutely should be. Like, no doubt about it. I should. But I'm doing less these days, not more.
SPEAKER_02Fair. Um, Chris, I I got a sign off for you, but this is absolutely incredible. I think uh you're sort of like the mega boss of a lot of things that I talk about on a micro scale, and so it's yeah, man, it's in it's it's an you're you're like an inspirational as a concept to watch what you do, to follow your style, because I think it's very it's very familiar and refreshing to a lot of people that come from the crypto world, come from these niche markets. You feel like you can't compete, and then you watch somebody who seems fairly achievable compete at the highest level and crush it, which is awesome. So I really appreciate you coming on. I love that you do so much media. Shout out all your stuff, shill all your stuff. But final question is who are your personal, if any, like trading goats? Like, who do you think is the best? Who did you take inspiration from? If it's nobody, that's kind of cool too. But I'm just curious.
SPEAKER_00No, there's only there's there's there have been two. Uh, one is Peter Lynch. Obviously, Peter Lynch is the goat of observational investing, uh, with the Magellan fund back in the day. I read his book, One Up on Wall Street as a kid. I mean, listen, everything I do now is inspired by what he did. I just do it in way more of a pure way. For Peter Lynch, it was part of his methodology. For me, it's a hundred percent of my methodology. I also uh, you know, I like Steve Cohen uh because of how ballsy he has been throughout his career and how aggressive he has been uh just with everything that he's done. And we, you know, we're both we both grew up on Long Island, we're Long Island kids. Uh I'm very different from him. What we do is very different from each other, but I just like is how aggressive he is. Like I he just he just he wants to be the best, you know, and like I want to be the best at what I do, and and like you know, he got into some trouble along the way, right? But but he he he pushed the limit uh of what you could do as a hedge fund uh when when he was more active. So those are the two guys that come to mind.
SPEAKER_02That's awesome. Have you ever like thrown up because your size is too big in a trade?
SPEAKER_00Close to it, yeah. But but you got to realize something. I've been trading options since I was a young teenager. It's like anything else, you just become so used to something, it you don't feel it anymore. Uh, the only time I became almost physically sick from a loss was that QSR trade where I did lose a third of my liquid net worth and it was really hard. Uh, I didn't know if I was gonna come back. Thank god I did. That was really that was the one time that it really hit me hard. Uh, but no, I just don't care. I just don't care because I also don't, I'm not like a big consumer of things. So like I don't even even the money I have is all for a greater good. I pour most of my excess returns into my charitable foundation. So it's you know, I have enough to live, I don't need anything. So it's just a matter of, you know, am I gonna build the foundation quicker or slower? If I'm having a good year, it's gonna build it quicker. If I'm having a bad year, I'm upset because I want to do good in the world, and the foundation is part of how I do that. So, like it's you know, when you're not trading to pay your bills, you don't really get nervous. You just you just go for it.
SPEAKER_02Actual last question then no sign-ups just walk out. When you make a hundred K, a million dollars, and 10 million for the first time, what do you do with the money?
SPEAKER_00Nothing. I I I like I said, I I I don't, it's the win that matters. It's not I'm not trying to buy something.
SPEAKER_02What if you were to recommend to somebody else in their trading portfolio that isn't as insane? Like, how would you protect yourself? 100k, mil, 10 mil for the first time.
SPEAKER_00I think the biggest trap, and I fall into this many times. After my biggest wins, I do the dumbest things not by buying things, but the worst trades come after that. Yeah, the absolute worst. So I'll tell you exactly what to do. When you hit a grand slam and you're like, dude, I just knocked it out of the park. I am a genius, I know exactly what I'm doing. Don't even touch the market for a while in a big way. Just chill out. You're not as smart as you think you are. Okay. You are about to make the worst trade of your life. I if history repeats itself almost every time I've knocked it out of the park, I have then gone on to do something so stupid because I get so overconfident. I have so I'm so cash flush that I am not as regimented with my process. And that is the trap. I know I just said not to do this, but I know everyone watching is gonna make the same mistake that I made. You there's only one way to learn these lessons. You gotta get destroyed. You gotta lose money. The only way you really learn in this game is by losing money, and then you'll learn. But that that's that's what I would say to do. Do less. Do less after your big wins, and you'd be better off taking part of that money and actually doing something fun with your family, your friends. You'd be better off buying something rather than just making a dumb trading move because that's what you're likely to do. Because you know, like I think most of us are not in this to like buy the you know, the exotic car or the plane. Most of us are in this because we love to win. We just want to prove it to ourselves that we can do it. This is like the big people do not understand. Let me say one thing. This is important. People don't respect what we do.
SPEAKER_02Hell yeah.
SPEAKER_00The this is the biggest game on earth outside of soccer. Do your research outside of soccer, there is no more competitive sport than investing. So if you make it to the top rung of investing, you have just outcompeted more people than any game or sport or any competition in the world, more than chess, more than anything. Okay. The only thing that has more people playing and trying to be good at it is soccer, according to my research, right? So, like, how cool is it to like play a game where the stakes are that big? And if you can make it into the top 1%, like, and we don't get an we don't get enough credit for that. Like, if you look at the top baseball players, the top tennis players, the top football, the top basketball players, dude, they got nothing on us who have gotten to the top ranks of investing because there's many people. Like, because that's the rush. We're just doing this is sport for us, and people don't understand that we do this for sport, and the same same thing as athletes, we love other investors. I love other great investors. Yeah, I want to beat them, but I also want us all to become better over time, you know. So it's like, and by the way, we're all making money at doing it, it's so fucking fun. And you realize how big that, by the way, we will eclip soccer soon. That's the other thing. Like, this is growing now at such an exponential rate in terms of new young people getting into the game and investing. Like, there will be no competitive sport on earth in five years bigger than investing. So, like, we're part of the biggest game on earth.
SPEAKER_02Chris, I think you probably know this, but uh, you're not quitting after 20 years.
SPEAKER_00I'm not quitting, dude, but I'm gonna say, dude, I got to slow down, man. I got to do it.
SPEAKER_02I think you know this already, but it's not looking likely.
SPEAKER_00I I'll I'll slow down. I know I tell people I love this sport because I will be on my deathbed in a hospital. All I need is my phone, man. Just give me my phone. I'll still be trading. You know, I can you could still do this. People like golf because you can play golf when you're older. Dude, you could play this game when you're e-mobile. Okay, so it's like, how fun is that? And you're still competing. I listen, I I welcome the competition. I welcome all the crypto kids because like I know my job's gonna get harder. I'm up for it. Like, yeah, welcome to my world. Let's let's go.
SPEAKER_02Chris Camello, absolute pleasure, man. You're you're the go. Oh, when do you sell Amazon?
SPEAKER_00Uh I don't think it's going to be for a while, and here's why. I think the ultimate move on Amazon hasn't happened yet because they are the number one beneficiary of the AI efficiency wave, which has not started yet. So if you look at the AI waves, starting with chips, then moving towards uh infrastructure and power, the next big wave is the AI efficiency wave. And that hasn't started, and that's where Amazon is really going to shine. And no one is talking about that yet. So, like Amazon has like layers of things that are happening right for the company. The thing I'm most excited about, people aren't even, they're not, their brains aren't even there yet. So, like, I think we have rounds of positive surprises for Amazon in the future. And I could see myself just continuing to like compound and and lay back into Amazon after every big win. And this could go on not just for months, but we could have years left in this Amazon trade. If the world plays out the way I think it's going to. And by the way, I might change my mind tomorrow if things you have to. You have to be uh willing to kind of look at new information day to day. But right now, it's still my number one.
SPEAKER_02When you wake up in the morning, how much time do you let pass before you check the tape?
SPEAKER_00Uh usually I don't even check it in the morning, right? Sometimes I'll check it right when I when I look at it. But honestly, I like to, you know, do my stuff, do my cold, my cold ice shower. Yeah, you're a cold cloud kind of guy for sure. I chill out, I do my little meditation, try to get my head right and you know, stuff like that. So usually like 45 minutes.
SPEAKER_02Are you like a 5 a.m. wake-up kind of guy?
SPEAKER_00No way. No way. You gotta remember, I'm up late. I'm up really late, man. Yeah, I'm I'm up to like three usually. So like really? Yeah, so that's what I do on my research. So I am I am usually not even up until after the market has opened. And so you don't do market open 8 30 my time. Central.
SPEAKER_02Oh, that's tough.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, so I'm not I'm not up and I don't care. Like, I do, I do not, I tell all my friends, I'm like, dude, you all my friends are like texting me, shit's happening. I'm like, dude, I don't care. I do not care. I do not need to pay attention to the market. I I I I went, I think one of the healthiest things that an investor can do, and I challenge every investor to do this. I know you won't. You must take a full 24 hours off from the market. You are not allowed to look at stocks or look at business. You don't know if the market was up that day or down. You don't know what the hell happened. You must take at minimum a 24-hour break once every one to two months. If you can't do that, you got a problem, man.
SPEAKER_02Chris, I got a problem, brother.
SPEAKER_00You gotta do it. I would say you you know, like Tim Ferris will literally go to the to to to like Costa Rica and like lock his phone up and and and learn how to salsa dance and crap for mental health. I'm not telling you to do that for a week. I'm telling you just to not look at any financial assets or business news for 24 hours. I promise you, you will feel so great if you pull that off. You will be so proud of yourself and you will feel like a normal fucking person, dude. Okay, like I know what it's like to be the way that you guys think as younger traders. I used to get depressed on Fridays when I was a kid because the weekend was coming and the market, there was nothing. There was no crypto, there was no after hours, none of it. I literally remember being like depressed because I didn't know how I was going to get through the weekend. So I that is not okay. It's not mentally healthy, and I know that's the way every single one of you guys are, but like this is why I don't want 24-hour trading. I'm fried. I don't want it. Chris, I don't think it's not good for you.
SPEAKER_02I'm fried, yeah. I mean, this is actually uh uh 24 hours. I can't even, I mean, I'm watching every tick on a lot oftentimes. I'm at the gym, my phone's out.
SPEAKER_00It's do it one time, do it once. The next one before I talk to you again. Uh before the next time I come on your show, uh, the next time you email me to do it, I want you to tell me when you did the what should I do?
SPEAKER_02You have a recommendation? Like, where should I do it?
SPEAKER_00Anything you want. But you here's the deal: you cannot tell everybody don't talk, don't text me crap about the market. I'm taking a 24-hour cleanse. Uh, it's like a juice cleanse, man. It's for your brain and it's for your nervous system, and it's so damn good. And it's gonna make you remember who the hell you are as a person outside of this crazy life of trading that we're all get we all get sucked into.
SPEAKER_02Chris, before part two, you have my promise. 24 hours, I'll do a juice, even I'll even do a juice cleanse at the same time. I'll buy them from sweet green, I'll wear my swatch AP, and it'll be a whole thing. Um, dude, you're awesome. Thanks for coming on. Thanks for staying so long after. We'll we'll do part two at some point, but you're awesome, man.
SPEAKER_00See you on the swatch line on Saturday. Guys, guys, follow me on X. Chris Camillo and dumb money.tv for all the socials.
SPEAKER_02Cool. I got guys out in every line. Good luck. Good luck to yours, I'll tell you that. All right, later. Chris, have a good one. Peace. Cinema, man. That guy That guy fucking is nuts, bro. That guy's a fucking lunatic, man. That was cinema, bro. I'm not gonna lie. That guy's a lunatic. If that doesn't make you feel like you can make money in the markets, I don't know what will. I genuinely don't know what will make you feel confident yourself to make money in the market, that doesn't feel like