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Trump Is In China, My AP Swatch Preorder, Chris Camillo Interview, Crypto Traders Will Dominate Stocks, AP Swatch - Threadguy: May 13th, 2026

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<Untitled Chapter 1>

SPEAKER_01

Yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, yo. What the fuck is good? How y'all doing? How y'all feeling? How are y'all living, man? It's a beautiful day. It's an incredible day. It is so good to be back on the stream. I'm sick. I'm down a lot of money, and I feel fucking incredible. Sick, poor, and grateful. Call that a triceratops. Call that a a a triple entendre. Call it whatever you want, but

Trump is in china

SPEAKER_01

it's me today. Um, we have a fun stream. It's crazy. We're at all-time highs again on the stock market. It feels like a rather quiet day. I don't know if that's just me holding garbage or exactly what that is. The whole world, or at least the important people in the world, are in China right now with G and President Donald J. Trump. The rest of us plebs are trading liquid markets and are not in China. We're in wherever else you are in the world. And there's a lot going on today. It is Wednesday. Crypto looks. What do you want? I mean, what do you want me to say? It looks what do you want me to say? What do you want me to say about it? There's nothing to say that I haven't already said. At the very least, maybe I stopped some people from some late longs, and that is what it is. It looks horrifying. It looks, it looks the way that it looks. And there's one particular coin that I'm I have just fallen in love with, and you're not gonna shake this one, you're gonna have to carry me out. And I get PTSD when I do this because the last time I did it, I lost a million dollars. But it's like you wanna be you want to be great, or do you wanna just be like a casual trader? And if you want to be great, you're gonna swing. It's the name of the fucking game. So it is what it is. We'll talk about it in depth. I'm out of the taunt thing, time rug for sure. I'm out of uh near just eh, whatever. And I am a huge Zeke bull. I don't know what to tell you. We're gonna cover stocks. We got a lot to talk about in the stock market, all-time highs moving crazy. We got smart bulls, we got smart bears, we got everybody in between. And we have Chris Camillo, who is what I'm mainly excited for today, is coming on the stream at 5 p.m. And I love Chris Camillo because I think he's just like one of us. He's a freak, he's a like a retail trader. He doesn't give a fuck about anything macro, he doesn't care about interest rates, he doesn't care about forex and currencies and bond yields, he doesn't care about anything other than the alpha that he's in. And there's not that many guys that have ran 20k to 80 mil. And I'm particularly enamored with Chris Camillo

I preordered an AP swatch

SPEAKER_01

because during the Iran War, when Trump was threatening to nuke Karg Island, and I was panicking and bearish and scared and had my tail between my fucking legs. Chris Camill was on the timeline, like talking like I don't even like what there's a war. Just bought five million dollars at Bloom Energy. Is there's a war? What binked it like a fucking Chad. And if you don't know who this guy is, you're in for a fucking treat. So we're gonna cover a lot. It's gonna be it's gonna be a Chris Camillo stream, though. I'm not gonna lie. We're gonna cover what we have to cover. We're gonna do market clothes in six minutes, and then we're gonna fucking do Chris Camillo. Chris Camilo's stream. Tomorrow we have air masks on as well. He's a rare guest. That's not a guy you just like get on. You don't just like get air mask on stream. Okay, Chris Camillo goes on the circuit, he does the pot. You don't just like get air mass on the stream, okay? This is like a it's not something you just do, you don't just grow out of bed and be like, oh, I want air mass on tomorrow. It's like, no, no, that's not how this shit's not how this game works, okay? That's not how this works. Let me explain something to you. But that is how it works if you're us and if you're the pit and if you're our community. So congratulations and thank you because it works because of you, motherfuckers. And on that note, big stream, let's not waste any time. I don't know what to do with the swatch drop in three days. I paid this kid, I didn't pay him, but he's sitting outside, I haven't paid him yet, but he's lined up outside like a Brooklyn swatch store and thinks he's gonna get $4,000 for three swatches, but I thought they were wristwatches, not fucking pocket watches. And he's he's out there in a tent with a fucking Nintendo Switch, and I just don't think they're worth $1,500 a pop anymore. I'm gonna be honest. It's it's not I I put up $1,500 for a wristwatch, okay? I did not put up $1,500 for a pocket watch. And so what do you think I should? I don't know, what should I do? Like, should I just send them home? I don't really know what to do with them. I feel bad because he keeps asking me for updates, and I'm kind of like ignoring it. I don't really know what to do with them. Wait to see how they do on secondary. I mean, there's already posts or sales on eBay. I'm gonna wear this fucker like a laboo-boo around like my satchel. I'm gonna give these things out like goodie bags. I'm gonna leave them on my uh on my nightstand, toss them out. It's like the home poker games when they when they're bringing the drinks around, you throw like a 25. Toss an AP. Um, so that's the swatches update, real quick. You know we had to start with it. Um, let me just check this real quick. Yeah, price, dude, price went down. They're selling them for 800 now. 12, 15. Ah, they're band. They're like a band. This kid is grinsing me, bro. He wants 1,500 a pop, bro. I'm just gonna do, I might just do it. I want it, I want it for stream. I might just go sit my ass in line. But what's the what's the poly market on that? Me sitting my ass in line. All right, market closed. Let's just get right to it. Spy new all-time high. Close up 8.58%, 742.3. Disgusting. SPX closes up same 0.58%, 74426. This is absolutely disgusting. We're now up an official 18 from carg island nuke threat. Horrifying Nasdaq 100 up 1.23. Gross. Semi ETF socks up 2.37%. I mean, this it's just unbelievable. From carg nuke scare lows, 73% green in about two weeks. IGV, the worst ticker ever, which structurally, technically, fundamentally structurally and technically looks pretty good. Fundamentally awful is down a percent. The Dow basically flat and Q's up a full percentage point. They are now, oh my god, 28% on the triple Q's since Carg Island nuke lows. Crypto currency. First of all, the fix down half a percent, 1790. Bitcoin, which I'm gonna be honest, I don't think it looks that bad. It looks boring, which is awful, but it doesn't look that bad. 79.7. I mean, look, if at any point this thing was able to get back above 82, it feels like we're gonna go for it. But until 82, we're stuck in a dead zone. Zcash, pretty ugly. I have a pretty clear plan. Unfortunately, Zcash, it's like having the nicest house in a horrifying neighborhood, is basically what Zcash is. I'm still in the long. My entry is, I don't know, 370, 4x leverage. Um, a lot of size. What I think is gonna happen is they're gonna dump this to about, I don't know, 500, 490, 480. At which point I'm gonna empty my perps book and buy. And I'm either gonna be a hero or I'm gonna round trip mid-six figures. Either way, it's gonna be entertaining. And either way, we're gonna get to an outcome one way or another. Now, on the rest of this stuff, I'm not really interested in touching any of it. I think Nier looks pretty good, honestly. But I just got frustrated and didn't feel like sitting in it. ETH looks terrible, but it could turn it around above 2500. Um, Seoul also looks terrible, but could turn it around over like 98, 99, 100. Monero, basically the same thing. Hyper liquid, exact same thing. You gotta get above 45 and and some change. Um, Bitcoin dominance is whatever. Bonds are ripping, stretches at 100. They bought 3100 BTC. Bought almost 250 million dollars worth of Bitcoin, and the chart is just like uninspired. So that is crypto. Gold looks decent, silver looks great. I was fired up about silver today. I almost bid it, I almost placed a silver bid. I didn't do it, but I think silver looks really good. Is anyone in this trade? Bro, don't you own a ton of silver jewelry? You're in the trade. Yeah, I guess. I guess. I do have a bunch of silver jewelry, but nothing really expensive. And it's all like designer shit, so it's like like cheap designer, so it's not this actual silver melt value, it's like whatever. Um, and then copper, which this is gonna be a fun one. Really, this is gonna be a fun one to watch. Um, you sort of got your like ATH, your like real ATH break. Pull back to sit right on top of it, and then we'll see what happens. Is anyone in the in the this is a fun one to watch. I'm gonna enjoy watching this. And then we have uranium now on the list, which a lot of the CT guys like. I don't, I don't know. It looked kind of uninspired. All right, moving on. Oil, energy, crew down a percent, Brent down 1.5, and then all of our energy names got crushed. TLN crushed, C E G crushed, VST crushed, NRG crushed everywhere. Looks like it wants a gap fill down here. All right, semi's big AI. Um, Sive Serenity stock monster, must admit. Hate to say it. Up 31% today. Nokia up 12, monster, Marvell up eight, arm up six, rocket lab continues, gap up five point six percent. Micron, the air mass stock who will be on our stream tomorrow, is now up 54% from the public air mass full port entry. He'll be on tomorrow. What time is

Cerebras IPO incoming

SPEAKER_01

Cerebrus IPO? Um, Thursday, I guess tomorrow, like trading hours, like will it be open when the stock market opens? I don't know if we have a plan for this. I kind of want to just like ape it, just to fucking ape it. I don't I don't know if we have a plan for this. What I will say is I think Cerebrus is gonna be a pretty good liquidity test. Like, if Cerebrus rips and everything else dumps memory, memory-wise, if AMD dumps, if NVIDIA dumps, if a lot of these other names dump, it is not gonna be a great sign as far as the hotball of money. But if Cerebrus rips and everything else also rips, then I think you get pretty bold up. TSMC up five, ASM up four, Google up four, new ATH, um, Bloom Energy, Chris Camilla stock, Tesla up three. Looks nice. NVIDIA, anyone in this ATH trade really clean, meta up 2.5, Amazon to Chris Camilla stock with a really strong day. Best stream on earth, I agree. Um, Oracle 1.5, QCom, Apple had a sick day, back of a 300. Biggest losers on this list Microsoft, Adobe, and Salesforce,

how to trade AP swatch

SPEAKER_01

consumer names and stocks. Number one, Swatch is down two percent today, but it appears that the Switzerland market is still open. I mean, look, this is gonna be a giga sellout, right? Every Swatch store in America is gonna have a line, if not already, out front, and every single one of these is gonna be off the rack instantly, and they're gonna be reselling it. It's 10:30 p.m. in Switzerland right now. So I'm curious to see like if this makes a serious move. See what happens. But, anyways, consumer names we care about. Nebius Monster, Texas Instruments good day. Circle had a really good day. Uh, is anyone in this? This is getting some hype around the Clarity Act getting past. Uh, I don't know. People like this. Reddit, people like in this chat. Snap is terrible. Roblox, terrible. IBKR, I love. That's where he's gonna trade the switch thing, probably. And then nothing else we really care about. Emist is down four. Uh, Elias, what are we doing, brother? Uh, Lulu, big mother, worst stock ever down two. Hood, Camillo stock down two. GME, Ryan Cohen went on a podcast. He won an Anthony Pomp, Pompliano, Pomp, Pompeilio, Pompliano, and talk some more about GME or talk more about eBay. He said it eBay needs to take Ozempic or a bloated company. I like that line, particularly. I'm a fan. Um, I'm actively trying to get Ryan Cohen on the stream. If you know him, let me know. And eBay. Wow. My god. I mean, eBay going up would signal theoretically confidence in this takeover at 125, right? I would suggest maybe that that would be the case. I don't know. They're not getting bought by GameStop. Yeah, it doesn't seem like they are, but he seems to be pretty serious about it though. And they put in a good offer now, whether they can afford it or not, the bid was rejected, but I believe it can go over their head to shareholders. And potentially this is GameStop's just swapping eBay because they don't own that much and they only own options. They bought a lot of options. They're up on the options, by the way. Probably they're actually probably up a lot on the eBay calls. Is that public? Can we see? Huh? Was that a decent trade? Like just on the news, that even if they're not gonna buy it, they don't want to lose money. No, they're down. So they're the 13d, which is quarterly, cooked. Yeah, cooked. It's the 13d, whatever. They also bought shares at 117. They bought the top, and they're down 120k. They didn't buy them any fucking shares. I could have bought their size. Okay, whatever. That would have been fun. Um, okay, last but not least, Alts. The leader's bear a chain. Ridiculous. Gito, decent. Some reason doge like looks pretty good, by the way. I don't know if anyone's in this, but doge looks decent, and everything else looks terrible. Vvv looks fine, I guess. Ccash, terrible. Everything else, all coin related, is horrible. And then really quick, we'll check uh on chain just because I care about you guys and I love some of you. Scam Altman, Viblet. I'm sorry. Oh, 800k, not bad. Uh, Hantavirus, no dia uh asteroid, somehow. How? Cards, yeah. And Bernie, I guess.

the Chris Camillo interview

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, nothing. Okay, that's the market. And yo, yo, Mr. Chris. What's up? Welcome to the stream, man. How are you doing?

SPEAKER_00

I'm doing great, man. It's a good day.

SPEAKER_01

It's a great day, man. I'm happy you uh you could make it. Look, I I want to start, I want to give you a quick a quick intro. Everyone's always asking you for intros. I want to give you a quick one. Um, quick lore on me is I've always been like an internet hustler kid, right? And so uh in high school, I'm like a sneaker reseller. Near the end of my high school, I graduated in 2020, move on to sports cards in the beginning of COVID, found NFTs, which I know you had a little NFT stint at one point. NFTs sort of age out, move over to crypto. Then we're trading crypto on chain. And in 2025, the fall of 2025, crypto has a really rough year. 1010 happens, volume, liquidity, open interest sort of falls off a cliff. And I realized more than anything, I want to trade volatility. And so in October of last year, I start talking about stocks. And for the first time, I'm posting these you know, clips are coming out from my stream, and I'm saying, like, man, I just feel like crypto traders can do well in the stock market, and that a lot of not all of our skills, narrative, attention, momentum, memetics port over. And so I post this clip. And at the time, I'm reading Unknown Market Wizards, and I I think I'm on the Peter Brandt chapter, which is funny, it's like the antithesis of how you trade. And you quote tweet me and basically say something along the lines of I've been saying this forever, it's about time they catch on. And I click on it and I'm like, who is Chris Camillo? I click on your Twitter profile, and I see your banner is Unknown Market Wizards, and I'm like, no way, I have the book in front of me. And so I skip ahead, you know, a couple chapters, and I get to your section at the same time. I'm trying to convince myself I can win in stocks. Like it wasn't lucky in crypto. And I read your chapter, and I mean it starts with the Snapple story, it gets to the Michelle Obama, and then it just ticker tags the whole thing. And I honestly could not believe what I was reading. Like, I felt like it was it was meant to be at the time. It was, yeah, it's an unbelievable chapter. And yeah, man, I'm excited to have you on. When did you record that interview?

SPEAKER_00

Oh man, that was years ago. Uh, I don't know, maybe like eight, nine months before that book came out. So, like, I don't know, 21 or something like that.

the lone trader

SPEAKER_00

Um, dude, well, imagine this. Imagine you're who you are, but you're my age, and you were doing all that stuff, but the crypto didn't exist. And none of that stuff existed. The only thing that existed was equity markets. Imagine you're the only guy in the world that is taking that approach, and you're like, this is insane. There's literally, I'm not talking about not having 50 million other people like you have in crypto trading, not one other. That was my life, right? That was my life in you know decades ago, dude. And I've been just waiting and waiting and waiting for other people to catch on. And then the moment that people finally catch on to my methodology, it's not with equities, it's with this new thing, crypto. I'm like, dude, there's no, there's no effing way. There's no effing way that I've been waiting my whole life to have people think like me, trade like me, like, and they're not doing it with stocks, they're doing it with this new thing crypto. It was, it was like insane. Um, and on one hand, it was super frustrating because it sucks to be a lone wolf forever. Like, you want to have a community, right? You want to be able to relate. Like, dude, I I've been like, you know, an investor. So like I go to investing events and conferences, and there's technical traders, there's fun, dude. I'm just like an alien, dude. Like I don't relate to anyone, I don't give a crap about anything that anybody else is doing in the investing world. Like it is it could be as foreign to me as like anything you could imagine. Um, and so I've had like no friends in my world, right? Like I had no one to no one to relate to. And then all you guys step in and you're doing this crypto stuff. And I'm like, okay, it it sucked for me because I was like, dude, what the hell are they doing? But then on the flip side, I'm like, dude, if all these efforts got involved with equity trading, my edge would like go down meaningfully because these kids are young, they're they're sharp, they're using algos, like everything that I'm doing, they're doing, but they are relentless. They're they're doing it the way I did it a long time ago, whereas I just didn't sleep. And I'm like, I don't know that I need millions to tens of millions of those kids competing with me as you know, attention arbitraders, social arbitraders, whatever you want to call it in the equity market, because my competition in an equity market is freaking nothing. Nothing. And people are like, how

crypto traders will dominate stocks

SPEAKER_00

did you generate 70% returns for 18 years? Well, I mean, the new audit's not out yet. It will be soon. I'm waiting on Jack to give it to me. I think it's going to be roughly 70% on 18 years. And like, you don't understand how weak the competition is in equity markets. You don't understand how slow hedge funds are. You really, really don't understand how much of a herd mentality is in this space that I've been working in. Yeah, they're smart technically. Yes, they have access to tens of billions of dollars and infinite resources technically, but none of that matters. They don't know what the hell they're doing. Um, and so, you know, I just started talking about this recently about these crypto traders coming into my space because I knew it was inevitable and it actually is starting. And I'm more happy about it than mad because truthfully, like my life obsession is to like fully democratize the investing landscape, have every human on earth enter, you know, the investor class and having them be successful and having them truly understand and believe that they could be great at this, because like no one fucking believes me, dude. Like every person is like, oh, well, the game is rigged, it's rigged against us. I'm like, dude, it's rigged for us, dude. If you're a retail truck, if you're a normal human that like doesn't have to report to a to a conventional office on Wall Street every day with a bunch of suits and protect your job and and like go by conventional research research methodologies, if you're just normal and connected culturally to the world and can do whatever the hell you want, this market is rigged for you, not against you. And like nobody ever believes me when I say that.

SPEAKER_01

So I want to ask you about this because you are so adamant, outspoken, and open that you want everybody to participate

the game is rigged for retail

SPEAKER_01

in these markets. I historically have gone around in my life not lying to people, but avoiding the discussion of what do I buy, what do I trade? Because there was a time where I wasn't doing that, and I'm like, you buy this, you should trade this, you should buy this. I convinced my dad to buy NBA Top Shots to my friend to buy Solana, and every time it ends in it either ends in a disaster where they lose money or they make money and think it's because that they're a genius. And I have like found the easier path of least resistance here is to just not talk about it. And you are as far on the other end of the spectrum as possible with trying to get people to trade. Like, why is that?

trading in public

SPEAKER_00

So when I first created my company Ticker Tags, which was the first social data intelligence company for hedge funds and banks, I want to prove that my methodology could be institutional. Like that was like my high ground. Like that was like, dude, if I can get the biggest funds in the world paying me money for this sort of intelligence, how cool would that be? I always I've I was always like an outsider. I was always on the outside of Wall Street. I always wondered what it would be like to see, you know, to get deep in the inside of like Wall Street. And I did, I got as deep as one could go. I worked with the biggest funds in the world at the top levels of those funds, educating them on conversational data sets and how to look at them, how to interpret them. Ultimately, they're so lazy and intimidated by that. Like most of them still to this day don't know what the hell they're doing in this space. But um, I when I was making the rounds with these funds, which is a pretty cool damn experience for me at the time. This is like mid 2010s. Uh, one guy sat me down and he's like, Listen, like what you're doing is incredible. Your track record, your approach, your methodology. He goes, but no one in this industry is going to respect it. He goes, What you need to do. Is as hard as it seems, as intimidating as it seems, because you never want to be called out for being wrong. You just have to be outspoken about what you believe and what you're seeing in the market. Like you gotta call, you gotta call your shots out loud. And every time you take a meeting, you go, This is what I'm seeing, this is what I'm doing. And people are going to see it work more than they're going to see it not work. And over time, you're going to earn the respect of other investors and institutional Wall Street. And so since that day, I've been very outspoken, not in terms of like, you need to invest in this, but this is what I'm seeing. This is what I'm doing, knowing that I could just fall flat on my face because that trade might, and it doesn't always work, right? It never always works. Um, but truthfully, like, you know, I this is kind of insane, but like over 18 years, I don't know. There's been 70 to 80 high conviction trades that I've made over 18 years, and I think less than 10 of them have been wrong. So, like, you know, it's that seems insane. I know it seems insane. But but like I've been very outspoken with all of those 70 to 80 trades. So, like, if one were to go back throughout all of Twitter and all of YouTube and everything I've ever done, you would find the 70 to 80, and like a person could document all of them, the book, everything I've ever talked about, like before the trades happened. And it's it's kind of nuts, man. Like, like the guy was right. Like, eventually, if you're willing to just be open and be like, this is what I'm doing, this is why I'm doing it. There's always gonna be a weird thing that might creep up that you missed. The trade didn't work, the macro environment crashed right in front of you, so the trade didn't even matter. Like, there are a lot of ways for a trade to go bad, but damn, so many of them have gone so freaking well. And it's like, you know, even the most recent one. I mean, Amazon at 197, and every single person was shitting on Amazon, every big institutional investor, every retail investor, they were all of X was like, dude, this 200 billion that they're spending is insane. Like I'm like, I was like, you know what? I came out, I was like, dude, and Amazon was hurting. I was like, I'm doubling, tripling, quintupling down. I did the same thing with Bloom Energy. Bloom Energy shit the bank. It was down to 80. Bloom Energy came down to 70s. I think it came down to 77. I'm doubling down. I don't care. The reason why it's down makes no sense to me. Therefore, I'm doubling down. Now it's a 295, like a few months later, right? So it's like it's so hard. People don't understand how fucking hard it is when nobody believes, and and it seems like that's the dumbest move in the world to say, I so believe in this. I'm tripling down, like Palantir in the 30s. There were guys coming out, they're like, dude, you're getting into Palantir now, dude. Are you kidding me? This move is so over, so over. Robin Hood at 27, you know, it's just like, and here we are again. Robin Hood's down the 70s again, you know. Like, I'm good, I'm doubling down in Robin Hood. I'm still doubling down in Amazon, right? Um it's just it's hard, man. You know, but by the way, it's hard for me in equities. It's not hard for you guys in crypto because you guys are used to having the world against you. You're used to having outlandish, you know, opinions that are uncorrelated, that no one believes in. And you you guys are fucking nuts just like me. So it's like the thought of you guys coming into my world is both invigorating and exciting. Um, meanwhile, I know what's gonna happen. Like the edge is going to slowly, if you guys really do this, which I know you will, I know you will. You're already starting over the next five years. The edge is going to come down uh with what I do. But yeah, I'm at the tail end of my career, man. Like, I got I want two more years of big returns. I want to hit the 20-year return mark. Okay. And I'm getting involved in, dude, I've been grinding since I was 12 years old. Okay. Like, I'm not, I'm not young. I I I've made all the money I want to make times 10. There's nothing I want to buy. Like, I'm just I just want to help people. I'd love, you know, I don't sell anything. Like, yeah, yeah. I just want to in in I just want people to get in the market, learn how to invest for themselves, not be afraid of Wall Street or intimidated by Wall Street. Um, so I I the timing could not be better. I'm so pumped to have more of you guys getting into equity.

SPEAKER_01

Dude, you're awesome. Thanks for coming on. Thanks for staying so long after. We'll we'll do a part two at some point, but you're awesome, man.

SPEAKER_00

See you on the swatch line on Saturday. Guys, guys, follow me on X, Chris Chris Camillo and dumb money.tv for all the socials.

SPEAKER_01

Cool. I got guys out in every line. Good luck. Good luck to yours, I'll tell you that.

SPEAKER_00

All right, later.

SPEAKER_01

Cinema, man. That guy's nuts, bro. That guy's a fucking lunatic, man. That was cinema, bro. I'm not gonna lie. That guy's a lunatic. If that doesn't make you feel like you can make money in the markets, I don't know what will. I genuinely don't know what will make you feel confident in yourself to make money in the market if that doesn't fire you up. I'm gonna run! I love you, I believe in you, I appreciate you. I think we're at the very beginning of a mega trend. I'm live every day at 3 30 p.m. EST. If you like us, if you like me, if you like Chris, if you like what we do, welcome. I love you, I appreciate you. Let's be great.