SPEAKER_02 0:00

Well pop you and your man.

SPEAKER_01 0:04

Ah welcome back to the stream. Welcome back to the stream. What the fuck is good? How y'all doing? How y'all feeling? How are you all living? Starting. What is good, baby? Believe it or not, we have some motion happening in crypto market. First topic on the stream today is Zcash, and it looks absolutely emphatically beautiful. And man, it feels good to be back. It's a Friday. I feel like we've been having some good weeks. I really do. I know a lot of that activity is just happening in stocks, so some people are maybe a little bit bored, but it's starting to maybe possibly trickle down in the hierarchy here. I don't entirely know, but yeah, there's a lot happening. Counterparty team is growing next week, which is awesome. Um, we're always hiring. If you're talented and lit and cool and interesting, we are always hiring clippers, whatever. Maybe the last hire, absolutely not. I just like talent. I like talent and I want to run a hedge fund. I don't know. Maybe I'll just start hiring hedge fund analysts and we can just figure out what to do. I don't know. I want to run a hedge fund. All I can think about is hedge funds. I I had a dream last night about Stanley Druckenmiller. It was crazy. I had a really weird dream, but Stanley Druckenmiller was like the main topic of my dream. Do you offer hedge fund salaries? We pay competitively. We have market closed in 10 minutes, and I am up on a trade right now, which feels good. But the thing I fuck with the most that I hold right now is Zcash. It's been a fun trade, it's been a it's been an easy, smooth sailing. So welcome back to the stream. Good to see you all. Let's get in the street. We have lots of talk about. Dude, I'm kind of fired up right now. Like, you know, I love a good book. And you know what's crazy is I think a lot of people came into trading from like a traditional background. Like you studied finance in college or like you worked like you were an analyst at a fund somewhere and you like worked your way up. The only reason I found out trading was a thing was when sneakers sort of dried up in when I was like 16. The all these paid Discord groups that were sneakers started adding like uh options analysts that would get paid like 500 bucks a month to give like stock calls. And so I'm like, wait, what are options? I'll never forget. You have to be 18 to sign up for Robinhood. And I will never forget when I first went to my parents and was like, um, can you tell me my social security number? And they're like, I was like, I need your social security number. And they're like, why? And I was like, Oh, like I'm signing up for a brokerage account. And they're like, to do what? And I was like, I want to trade stock options. And my dad was like, Do you even know what a stock option is? I was like, no. I was like, I think it's like buying stocks, right? He's like, No, it's not like buying stocks. Um, and it was this like whole thing. And so I didn't even know like funds existed or any of these traditional hierarchy systems in stocks existed until like going back the other direction. And so I'm reading this book right now, More Money Than God. It is so fire. The last I've only ever recommended one other book, ever. I've recommended two books. Reminisce of a stock operator is an all-timer. And then the second one I recommended is uh it's not here, but Unknown Market Wizards. And that's the book where I discovered Chris Camillo. I discovered Chris Camillo. Well, I guess I didn't discover him, but I found out about him for the first time in that book. And then he replied to my tweet, and he's coming on stream in like a week or two, which is fucking lit. But this book is like a comprehensive history of hedge funds and hedge fund managers from the start, and like I think the first fund was 1949. Alfred Winslow Jones, the first hedge fund manager ever. He like invented the hedge fund 1949. Okay, and so I read that section, it's so lit. He was like a politician, bro. He was like a he was like an anti-Nazi, like liberal politician in Europe and did that for a while, like protest against the Nazis for a while, and then finally 1949 rolls around and he's like, Fuck, I'm kind of broke, I need to make some money. I'm gonna invent a hedge fund. Okay, and so I read that section and it's super lit. Cinema. It's so good. It's so it was like a different game back then, right? Like it didn't exist. They're saying he introduced leverage for in a uh he he he like invented the incentive fee. So this guy, Alfred Winslow Jones, to my recollection, this book knows nothing about finance, but he knows how to like structure a company and raise and raise capital. And so he raises a bunch of money, like 600k in 1940 is how much? 13 million. That's pretty good. 600k for friends and family, and he invents this incentive fee where all these like hotshot analysts, all 20 of them that existed in 1949, basically come through, give trade ideas. If he takes them and makes money on leverage, and because he has capital, he had 13Ms, it's pretty good. He gives you like a nice payout. And so there was like an era of 19 like 50s where all of the best traders in the world just work for this guy's fund just because he figured out the system, right? And so they they dominate the market, right? 100 annual returns for like 10 years until finally all these analysts are like, okay, what the you know, it's 1960. What the fuck are we doing? We're giving him all these trades. This guy's a complete retard, he's unk, he knows nothing. We're just gonna start our own fund. And so the next guy who I just read about is so lit, Michael Steinhard, bro. This guy's a fucking lunatic, runs this fund through like the 60s and the 70s. He made how much? He's an analyzed return of 24.5 percent. This performance spanned 28 years, brother. Initial investment of $10,000 in his fund at Inception would have grown to approximately $5 million when he closed it in 95. Think about that, bro. If you gave this guy 10k when he opened his fund in 1967, it would have grown to approximately 4.8 million. Okay, and this guy traded through a legendary era because nine okay, so what 1971? Richard Nixon takes his off the gold standard, dollar inflates to fuck, and we just have like a turbo, risk rips, gold goes crazy, everything goes parabolic. And so I'm reading at this segment in this book, and this guy basically invents block trading. Also, we'll do market close in like five minutes, but this is my favorite, this is my favorite shit. I want to just talk about this for a minute. Let me just talk about this for a minute. He's making a bunch of money like trading the app trading actual markets, but he like invents block trading, right? And so, like, there's this there's this massive rise of like pensions and mutual funds and 401ks and people needing to buy like massive block sizing of stocks. And so for the first time, there's all this demand to buy like a hundred thousand shares of Ford that there's like wasn't liquidity for, and so this guy like invented it's basically equivalent to like if you were LPing Solana meme coins when they started going crazy in early 2024. He like was an OG liquidity provider for the stock market, and so these brokers, it was such an unregulated market, and there was no liquidity. And so, like, these brokers would call him and be like, We have a hundred thousand shares of Ford that we're gonna dump on the market, and he'd be like, All right, let me buy it 10% under market value right now. He would get on the phone, he would close at four million dollars, and then he would instantly call like Goldman or somebody else, and he would sell the same lot, flip like 50% profit, like oh, like bang, bang, bang, bang, bang. And so what started to happen is this guy, he admits to this later in his life. Okay, he made so much, he made these brokers at like Goldman, JP Morgan, he made these guys so much money in commissions that they just started ripping him insider info. And so they would call him and they would be like, Yo, Michael, I got an order that you see on the books of a seller for a hundred thousand shares of Ford, but they have a million shares behind, go short. And so he would like go short, market would dump because he's short, and then it would dump because these people are dumping these shares onto the market, then rip rip Ford stock down 10%, whatever. Then he would buy the last lot, he would buy 200,000 shares at the end, rip long, or immediately flip it to like JP Morgan or some other buyer. And this guy like invented LPing, bro, and then he just quit, and that was it. Fucked off into the side, he's still alive. They told the story in the book, word for word. And so this guy was known for being a complete fucking hothead lunatic, right? So he had this analyst that came to him and said, Um, I just went to a conference, I think it was for Dell. I I forget the name. I think we'll just say Dell. And I just went to this conference. I think Dell's undervalued. We should buy. And he, you know, he would he would just he would just press people. Why? Why should we buy? No, no, no. I really think we should buy. Why should we buy? I really think we should buy. We should buy 10,000 shares. And he's like, I don't want to buy 10,000 shares. And the analyst like kind of presses Michael Steinhardt and apparently he pressed him in like a big meeting in front of the whole bro, like the whole office, and nobody presses this guy. Like he's like a hot, he's known for being a hothead freak. Nobody presses this guy. He said, Okay, how much do you think we should buy? Analyst says, I think we should buy 10,000 shares. He said, Okay, I hope you're right. Bam slams 25,000 shares. Analyst looks at him and what what I said 10,000. He screams in front of the whole fund. Do you believe in the trade or not? Do you believe in it or not? He's like, Do you believe in it or not? I believe in it. Slam 25,000 more shares. And so before you know it, analyst asked this guy to buy 10,000 shares of Dell after this uh you know GTC type of conference he went to. And the fund, one of the biggest funds in the world, now has 25% of their entire assets under management in Dell. And the guy's like, I fucking hope you're right. Next day they wake up, earnings, binks it, binks earnings, fund makes like $10 million, they slam sell. And then he goes back to the analyst. And instead of congratulating this guy for forcing this trade through and making the fund $10 million, he chews him the fuck out because he was like, Why didn't you give me the trade idea earlier? Why didn't you give it to me earlier? Choose this guy out in front of the entire fund. And I'm so freaking hype. I'm so all I can think about right now is running a fund. It's unbelievable how good some of these guys are. And I don't know. I picked up this book and I was just like so happy to exist. So on that note, um, let's get into stream. I'm thinking about investing in some Legos. This is like the the gold standard Lego. I'm looking at that diversify a little bit. I know it's 14k, but I mean, look at it. It's really sick, and it's sealed. And there me and Leap, there's like a hundred of these in the world, and me, it wasn't that Leap, if you're watching, ping me. Me and Leap almost bought the uh cornered supply on the uh vintage Lego market, but we didn't do it. And this is on my list now. So um, all right, let's go. Market close just happened, but um, SAP 500. Um, closes up a quarter percent at 720. It got as high as 725 intraday SPX about the same IGV software chart. I'm gonna be honest, guys. I know I hate on this thing all the time, but software looks kind of interesting here, up three and a half percent. Obvious winner today, which is shocking, and then socks up a percent. Crypto, oh mighty beautiful. My love that I never switched up on. I've never ever said a bad thing about crypto ever. I just love crypto, I talk positively about crypto, and that is because Zcash is $386. And I yesterday said I was long Zeke at $351, clicked it a little bit. I clicked again at $361, and then I clicked again at like $391, and I would ideally get a four out of four final fill with the highest margin ad at 400, and then we will see what made you choose Zcash. I just wanted to fucking trade something. The other thing I clicked was uh Dogecoin, which looks terrible. It just looks good. I don't I mean, look, I don't have a lot of lines on it. Sorry, I don't need this other purple box can go, but it this uh looks wild. Sorry for all the lines. The lines are where I wanted to enter. Um, apologies, there's nothing significant. Uh, Bitcoin also looks interesting, a little weak volume, which isn't ideal, but 78.1 and ETH about to reclaim 23, but it looks like shit. Solana 83, still the worst of the bunch. Hyperliquid looking good again at 41. I had a shot uh shower thought. Eli is good morning. You missed a sixth segment at the beginning. I had a shower thought that I was gonna sell clip all my BTC into hyper liquid, so I got out of the shower. Uh Monero not doing much. Uh stretch, I think clipped 100 at one point, which means we have to check and it didn't. Um gold, is that put a nice little day? 46 silver 75 and Bonger down. Oil down across the board. Thank God. Brent oil is 108 on HL. We'll look at Tao in a minute. Hyper liquid uh WTI on hyperliquid is 102. We have like a slight escalation going into the weekend, I think, but I am of the camp that I don't know. This shit is um, you know where I stand with the war. Now, yesterday somebody asked me they wanted a short oil, and I told them I think a better expression of short oil is long Bitcoin, if you remember that. And I don't know if that was true, but I said it's a safer expression is long BTC instead of short oil. And so let's see, short oil daily you would have gotten like two and a half percent down, but it got to as much as wow, it got to as much as six and a half, but close around like two and a half percent down. Long BTC would have got I think it was uh I forget who it was. Long BTC on the daily would have gotten you what two and a half as much as like three and a half. So maybe short oil was the better trade, but kind of a it was kind of a fun one. Like I was hyped about that thesis. Like fuck it, long bitcoin instead of short oil, and yeah, I don't know. It was it was cool, cool to see it play out both directions, really. Also, VIX is where up half a percent. So energy, everything down across the board. Palantir's up four percent with IGV. Man, I IGV looks nuts, I have to admit, and then everything else down like a percent just by the bottom. Um big tech sand disk put in a disgusting candle today after getting kind of crushed in earnings or post-market earnings. I think it was on six percent yesterday. It's up eight percent today. It's a hundred and seventy five billion dollar stock. So Sandisk up eight, Oracle up seven, Intel is nuts, crossed a hundred today. Bubble Boy is so paid. By the way, Bubble Boy came on stream at like eighty one dollars. You could be up like 20 something percent if you just copy shaded Bubble Boy, which is crazy. Didn't not say I recommend it, but Micron put in a sick day here. Here's our Air Mass entry, which we'll be following very closely. Um, his entry is around 520 at full port, and he's already up I don't know, four or five percent. I think seemingly on some big size. Apple put in a sick day. Jackson Ray, what are you doing? Long, short, flat. Um, Nokia is another fun one. I like it's added to the list up three percent. Tesla up a couple, Adobe looks terrible. I'll not be trading that if I'm gonna do IGV will not be trading Adobe. Microsoft up a little bit. AMD ripped a new all-time high. And NVIDIA is still under 200. This chart is ugly. Um, Qualcomm, which I like because I think it's fun for the open AI phones down a percent and a half. I don't really understand the business. I my goal for this weekend. I have two goals this weekend. Number one is to learn how to DD stocks, and number two is to read through the poll Tutor Jones section of my book. So hopefully I can get at least one of those done. Some of these consumer names that are interesting. Crypto stocks are doing well, obviously. Crypto's up, circle up 10. It's interesting. MSFT up seven or uh MSTR, excuse me. Figma, worst chart ever, is up six. Snap up a couple. Um, where's IKBR? It's my new favorite stock. IKBR, here it is. My new favorite stock is IKBR, just enabled Korean. Do not forget Bloom Energy. Um, I love IKBR though. They just added trading for uh South Korean stocks, which is really lit. And that brings us to altcoins, man, which have had an interesting day. Zcash has put in a sick fractal. You know, I'm long. I'm not tits long yet, but above 400, I'm tits long. I am probably tits. There's a new market which is coming out in June. Who's in it? Do we know who's in it? I'm probably tits above 400. Uh Monet put in a 10% day, which is nice. Tau! Looks interesting again. Um, I'm I have zero desire to trade this name, but it looks interesting with the rest with some of these crypto names. Vvv has been the leader. Lighter stoic savage is in, which is interesting. And then I have a Dogecoin long open, but it's pretty uninspiring. I'm not gonna lie. Should maybe be far coin or just close it, but we will see how this plays out. I have a my entries. This I entered 51, 61, 91, and then I would do 405 last entry hard, and I would probably slam that one the hardest, and then we will see what happens. But it's turned out to be a nice little trade so far, but I'm only interested if it goes for the big one, or maybe it's not time, but you know, it could be time on some of these crypto names. We'll see. Uh, it's Friday, I don't want to get too retarded, but I mean highest price, other than that recent pump since January. So it looks decent. And then last but not least, on chain, which uh cards is putting in a nice fractal. There's some excitement about cards, scam Altman, Jesus. I didn't mean to click it. Bernie 129, I don't know, whatever on that coin. And then Asteroid is what? Wow, wow, wow, wow. 140 on this thing. Quant, you here? Damn, he actually has a sick poly market account. This is about to come on brokey. All time PL. This is no joke. All time PL on poly 422k. Impressive. Year to date, 12. All time 400. He has some binkers too. Let's see. Whoa, he's long Rubio. Dog, he's up 60k on will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. That's a fucking lit market. All right, let's just get him on. I'm excited. I think this guy's a sharp. Yo, yo, yo. Hello, hello. How are you? Um good, Mr. Brokey. This uh PFP might get me banned on Twitch. I hope not.

SPEAKER_00 17:31

Oh well, it's it's it's just the joke. It's not, I'm not the real Andrew Tate. There we go. Nor do I nor do I endorse. Well, I mean, I endorse some.

SPEAKER_01 17:40

I won't uh I won't hold you to that one either direction.

SPEAKER_00 17:43

No, I I I I agree with them on some things, disagree on.

SPEAKER_01 17:47

We can say the Tate topic. Welcome to the stream, dude. It's an absolute pleasure to have you here. Um sick yes, sick PL, man.

SPEAKER_00 17:53

Thank you, thank you. So I I just want to clarify a few things. So um there's this concept on polymarket called neg risk. Basically, you can have option A, like you have outcome A, outcome B, outcome C. You know, um, if you buy no shares of outcome A, you can convert those no shares of outcome A into yes shares of outcome um B and C, assuming that that it's guaranteed that A, B, or C will occur. And because of this, I essentially neg risked um the no shares of JD Vance to um all of the other brackets. Now, I I also have yes shares on JD Vance, so it's it's a little bit confused, and and this is sort of like a polymarket bug. But regardless, so like all most of the PLs on that bracket are actually like incorrect.

SPEAKER_01 18:34

Um but wait, wait, wait, wait. Can you can you back up and uh explain uh polymarket negative risk? I've never I don't know if that's crazy, but I've never heard that explained before.

SPEAKER_00 18:44

Okay, so essentially, um you know you have let's say there's a sports event, right? And it's let's say it's soccer where you can tie in the first 90 minutes, right? Um and one of those three outcomes will occur. Um so basically, if you have no shares on, you know, um team B winning, it's the same as having yes shares, the same amount of yes shares on both team A winning or it's tying, right? Because mathematically there are only three options. Um, so the prices will be the same. You can go on any polymarket markets, and if you add up all the odds of yes on all the other brackets, they will add up to the price of no on um one of the other brackets, which is a fun thing. And bots actually are arbitrage using this.

SPEAKER_01 19:25

Whoa, that's that's I've so how often are you like thinking about this and using this?

SPEAKER_00 19:30

Uh yeah, how often are you thinking about this? So I I think it's very strategic because sometimes you can get um shares for cheaper, and obviously you can just use these market my mechanics to make more money.

SPEAKER_01 19:41

Whoa, that was thank you for the second explanation. Eddie let me back up. Like, give me an intro. Who are you for as much as you want to share? And how like what is your trading experience in lore?

SPEAKER_00 19:52

Yeah, so I guess I like my first experience in crypto was like not on prediction markets, you know. First it was actually OpenC. Uh, I I know you're just looking at that. I bought into some of those at the the higher prices. Um but that from there I I went into Meme coins and uh yeah, now I recently I or like two years ago I went into prediction markets. Um yeah, so I'm I'm primarily training prediction markets. I I think I've traded literally every category of prediction markets of market on polymarkets, and uh, you know, I I I think I've made money on on all of them, and I I think I just like always look for edge. I think I use like a lot of I use a lot of like just rational, common, like common sense, I would I want to say, although like that's a little bit rude to people that you know make make uh you know the are my counterparties. Uh yes, so I I do a lot of that and uh but more recently, like since February 28th, I'm primarily trading geopolitics uh because I have a lot of insights on there. So like on February 28th, obviously we know the United States commenced the military operation against Iran, and uh so on that market, you know, Khomeini ultimately like met his demise, but in between that, um many people were had not priced in this. So the odds of Khomeini being out, um Ali Khomeini, the father, the son obviously being Mochitaba, um people hadn't priced this in. So it was like the market was roughly at 50 cents by the time I had woken up. Um I put bought a lot of shares of yes, and he turned out to die. I think people were trusting Iranian media, state media, in that scenario a lot. I'm just giving an example of a trade of how I use this edge. Um, so people trusted Iranian state media a lot rather than you know looking at the Israeli media. Israeli media was saying that you know this was a targeted strike, he's definitely dead. So I think this is this was kind of my edge. That's like people in the West don't really understand that, you know, people don't know which media sources to trust. I I would say that. Like, and I would also want to say like people in the West don't understand how to tr and don't don't understand Islam, and as a result, you know, some of these terrorist organizations don't make the right trades due to that.

SPEAKER_01 21:58

So okay, I've First, tell me what uh media outlets you should trust. Like, how do you know who to trust and who not to trust? There's been the notorious. I've looked also since February 28th, all we've covered is geopolitical geopolitics as well. And there's been the infamous Israeli news network 12 that has falsely reported like 10 different things, and markets have ripped whipsawed both directions.

SPEAKER_00 22:20

And that's why I don't like true. So, I mean, it it's extremely hard, as you said. Um, I think you also have to think a lot about incentives when you're going through these problems. Um, you know, I obviously like have I'm like there's some there are some like niche analysis, you know, news networks that probably have like very few um like readers or viewers or listeners, but they have like extremely good insights. Um, traditionally these are like either like universities or like some nonprofits. And I don't really want to say the names because you know it's a big edge, but there's sources like this, like they gave insights, for instance, into Muchtaba committee being the leader, despite him being only priced at like five to 15 C on polymarkets, um, when the Iranian clerks, which are like religious leaders, actually voted for him. Um, but yes, Mochstaba ultimately was the leader. By the way, I I want to make it clear there is like a controversy whether Muchdaba is truly alive. I don't know if you've gone over this. It is my opinion that's give me the give me the breakdown and what you think. I think I think he's dead. Um like the the RGC is not incentivized to pick like a dead leader, you know, Muchtaba was already next in line, but when he died, like the like the leaders of the RGC would have significant more power if if they picked someone who's already dead because um there wouldn't be like as much internal um you know like uh internal conflict. So I so I think that like if that's that to answer the question of why they would pick someone dead, it's because they would get much more power on an individual level. And and secondly, I think the whole story of Muchtaba's quote unquote survival from the compound. Um the stories like mentioned as him walking outside of the main compound, and he goes into this other part of the compound, and then he r walks down the stairs back to the compound, and the Israeli bombs hit hit the compound, his his father's compound, killing his father, and Muchtaba Khomeini, thanks to Allah, his only his arm was was destroyed or hurt or something. And that story just seems so far-fetched that I I think it's um, you know, they're they're they they have to use like this religious figure to sort of justify I think it's extremely likely that Muchtaba is dead.

SPEAKER_01 24:21

Okay. Is uh is there an active market that you're positioned in either direction on that?

SPEAKER_00 24:26

Uh I have I have some some um I have some shares on on the yes that he'll be out, but okay, by by when? By the end of the year. But I'm just really worried that you know, even though I know he's dead, he could, you know, they they could just hide it because the IRGC doesn't want to um make it clear. They they want the power, right? They're why are they gonna why are they gonna say Mojtaba's alive if they can keep this power and keep this sort of deception? Got it. Okay, like the IRGC has no has no incentive to to to say Mojstaba is dead, and they would also have lied. What did what do you do all day?

SPEAKER_01 24:58

Give me your like daily routine. Like, what are you doing all day? Are you are you how yeah, I'm a student. You're a student? This is like a part-time thing for you, yeah, yeah. Like you're in university? Uh I mean, no comment. Sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry. You're that is insane though. So this is you're a student and you are trading prediction markets. Are you trading other markets? Are you mostly trading prediction markets?

SPEAKER_00 25:18

Uh, yeah, so I've also been trading um, you know, the oil markets on hyperliquid, um, which is very interesting, which is which has a very interesting mechanic because they are tied, they have an oracle price. Like I'm sure everyone on the stream is familiar with hyperliquid and how you have the funding rate, and this essentially pegs you to the Oracle price. But people believe the Oracle price to go down, for instance, you know, the you like we can all agree the war will has like above an 80% chance to to resolve in the next like six months, right? And and and because of that, you know, the funding rates should, in theory, price down the market. Yes. As in, like the funding rates um should make it such that longs pay short such that shorts pay longs in the in the long run because um you know the markets will end up there eventually. And you can actually, and I actually think hyperliquid, this funding rate is mispriced on hyperliquid, such that you know, if you open a short position for the next six months, um, you'll you'll make money. And I think this is actually one of the best instruments to short oil um because of this sort of mechanic. Because you are heavily priced again, the war being over and that destroying oil. Well, I don't think the markets like I don't I think the funding rate on hyperliquid like bounces a lot on on the specifically on the Brent oil, which is the one I've been trading. Okay. Um, and you know, I I think that you will not pay that much money to short, i.e., like you won't lose that much money on on funding rates. I I know you mentioned like trying to short or to long Bitcoin. Um, you know, I I I think I think the hyper liquid way is much more um it's a better way to do it. But I would also like to clarify, like I saw someone on your stream earlier said that you know they're short oil. I I'm I'm short oil in in short and in long run, but I'm I'm very long oil um in the short run in the next three days. I think I'm okay. What happens in next three days?

SPEAKER_01 27:06

Escalation this weekend.

SPEAKER_00 27:08

I I I yes, I believe so. What do you bet against? But but but but like let's put it this way I think it's like a 30% chance, right?

SPEAKER_01 27:16

So let's not Okay, and how do you come to how do you come to like what are you calculating when you come to 30% chance? It's like a specific number.

SPEAKER_00 27:23

I I think is I can't put a it's just I don't know. In the past, there's not I I can't really like justify.

SPEAKER_01 27:30

Interesting. And so what do you um how are you positioned for it? And like what so how are you positioned for it in oil market? How are you positioned for it in prediction markets, and then what is your general read on like where this is going?

SPEAKER_00 27:44

Well, I think this is this is one of the my my issues on prediction markets. Like I don't necessarily always price in the news correctly, which is why I always um look for a substantial edge, like more than 20 per 20 to 30 percent. And and and for that reason, uh, you know, I usually make I make money on like most of the trades. Um, but so anyways, to answer your question, I what I think like Trump will do is I think there will be a very short strike, and I think it will decapitate a lot of the um RGC. I think he will like destroy a lot of oil infrastructure and like energy power infrastructure. And I mean, I think that's I think Trump believes that doing that will allow um that will bring the Iran to the negotiating table in a in a place more willing to um give away the highly enriched uranium, which is the I would say like big like biggest factor by far about why um by why Trump hasn't you know met or agreed to the Iranian demands.

SPEAKER_01 28:39

Interesting. What do you think about um trading what do you think about trading oil on hyperliquid versus trading some of the oil market to polymarket?

SPEAKER_00 28:48

Yeah, I think the oil, like all markets in polymarket are time constrained, right? You know, they all have a resolution date. They they will go to zero, one, or fifty percent, um, depending on the market rules, by by whatever resolution date. And and because of this, you know, like I haven't always like the time frames are harder to predict than what will actually happen. Um, you know, I I saw this on my accounts, like I bet a lot on a US and Venezuela operation, but I bet on like uh you know late 2025 and it happened on the third of January of 2026, right? So I think time frames are harder to predict, and and for that reason, you know, sometimes it it is better to to use per perpetuals, but you know, sometimes I do have like shorter term conviction, and for that reason, you know, you I I would use polymarkets in that case. I think it really depends on the the opportunity.

SPEAKER_01 29:37

Interesting. So where where have you been the most wrong since February 28th? Like what markets have you gotten wrong uh for the biggest losses?

SPEAKER_00 29:43

Most wrong, yeah. Okay. Um so I I was very long oil right when it's been such a country. When the when the last ceasefire occurred, I was also very long oil at the beginning of the war and I made a lot of money, but yes. But but most recently where I lost money, like since February 28th, was um the these oil markets. And on Plymarket, I think it was like similar related markets to that. I I I didn't think a ceasefire would occur. I I think the ceasefire has been rather stupid to be to be frank with you. And um, I had I listened to some analysis and it had basically said this is very interesting, that Axios, the the news agency, is essentially like Trump messaging. And you know, I I I and the messaging of Axios at the time was such that you know uh oh Iran's not agreeing to a deal, you know, Trump's the peace guy, it's all Iran's fault. And and and that and that would be clear messaging um for for an operation, you know, like that justifies it. We Iran's trying to build a nuclear weapon, and uh, you know, they're not agreeing to this peace deal or giving us the heavily enriched uranium back. So I thought I was I was very I had a lot of conviction that that would be the messaging. Um, and I I honestly don't know why they did the ceasefire, and I'm I'm still confused with it to this day. I think it's probably pressure from the American people. Um, and you know, maybe oil prices were too high for Trump. But look looking back today, you know, the straits still closed. Um, if you some people speculate, maybe we go to no deal, um, uh no nuclear deal and no no reopening of the strait, which would also bring oil up. But but yeah, I think there are like a lot of factors.

SPEAKER_01 31:14

I uh appreciate you coming on. This is sick. It's like a different side. Um, is there any any uh anything you want to shill, anything you want to sign off with, recommend people to direct links, whatever your Twitter's on here. I'm sure people some people are following you on stream.

SPEAKER_00 31:27

No, no, I don't I I don't I don't I don't have anything to promote. Just check out my Twitter page, Brookie Traits. Dude, the PFP is killing me by the way at the beginning. It's hard to focus. I I apologize. It's a it's a joke, but okay, man.

SPEAKER_01 31:41

Thanks for coming on stream, brokey. It was a pleasure, man. It was great to meet you. Maybe we'll uh we'll do it again in a minute at a million PL. All right, thank you. Bye, my brother. Much love, dude. Peace. The guy's nuts, man. I I like that. That was fun. He's fucking those type of people I like to talk to. Those are the type of people I like to talk to. Shout out to uh shout out to Broki Trades. Fuck it. I followed. I think he's a good follow. I just followed him too. I I hadn't followed him before. Um these polymarket guys are hilarious, they're really funny. Shout out to Broki. Uh, Toolkick, send me the IQ test. I don't think I'm gonna do it on stream, though. I I don't think I'm gonna do it on stream. I don't think I can do it on stream. Is it long? Like how long is it? Oh, dude, I can't do this on stream. I I cannot do this on stream. 30 25 35 puzzles in 25 minutes. There's no way I can do this on stream. All right, let me let me do I'll let me try something. I'm gonna ask ChatGBT what anything. I'm gonna ask Claw what the IQ is. Um give me a rough ballpark for what you think my IQ is based off everything you know about me. Well that's in itself and IQ test. I'm gonna go chat GBT now. I turn off the screen just in case. I don't know what it pops up when I click on it. One twenty one thirty. One twenty one thirty-five. Ah one thirty Q percentile.

SPEAKER_02 33:20

Wow.

SPEAKER_01 33:20

Wow, oh, wow, oh, wow, one twenty to one thirty-five. You know what Claude said? This is what I said. The signal is noisier than you'd want it to be. Building a media company, trading across asset classes, and developing frameworks like memetic momentum all suggest meaningfully above average reasoning.

unknown 33:40

Woo!

SPEAKER_01 33:42

Based off my tweets, uh thread. I estimate roughly my IQ. Your clause says, wait, wait, wait. Everybody asked their Claude. Ask their Claude what uh Mon30 interesting. I'm 130 also. My Claude said the same thing. I did. My Claude also said the same thing. Uh-oh. Same here. 103rd, most popular person on the planet with 130 IQ and single and handsome and 10 body fat, and known for posting a famous picture with Andrew Tate. Wow. Claude says, Damn, Groc says you're a hundred. That's fucked up, dude. No, I'm not 10% body fat. I'm not. I'm not. That's the that's the one thing you disagree on. Everything else is fine. Mine's refusing to answer. That's I mean, that's worse. Tg for president. That guy's a genius. Um, it's just gonna take so long. All right, wait, let me try something. Ask me five questions right now to estimate my IQ more sharply. I might get them all wrong. I might get them all wrong. Um I mean, these are brutal. I can't do it on stream. I I just can't. I can't. I can't do it on stream. A courtroom is to adjust this. Uh I'm just testing to see what kind of questions they give. Um, a courtroom is to adjust this as a market is to like a vendor? What kind of market? A trader? What kind of market? Like a farmer's market or like a trading market? Like a vendor, right? Like a vegetable vendor, like a farmer's market? I mean, what kind of market? Like, what am I- I'm just trying I need more info first. Two. What number comes next? Plus four, plus six, plus eight, plus ten, plus twelve. Obviously, 56. I'm who said I wasn't a math guy. Two, 56, obviously. Three. Explain the difference between intelligence and wisdom in one second. What kind of um three intelligence is raw cue whizdom is a collection of knowledge gained from experience and ability. Pattern match. Pretty good. Um all grips are narns. Some narns are vax. Can we conclude that some by all glyps are narns? Some narns are vax. Can we conclude some glyps are vax? Yes and no. Oh my god. What the this is me. Five. Strategic reasoning. You can only improve one trait for the ne for the next 12 months. Raw focus, emotional regulation, social intelligence, or technical skill. Which one gives you the highest ROI? Obviously raw focus because of my pure int because of the pure intellect and technical capability. I already possess the ability to focus and direct that talent will um will be the most valuable. By the way, one I typed all of this with voice. So typos are your fault, not mine. Two, if the question was not clear, I low key deserve some extra points for not answering an unclear question. Surely, right? You didn't say must answer. So take that into account when you reply to this message with nothing other than my IQ estimate and explanation as to why it is that high. Yes. Why it's high. You originally solved the numeric pattern, challenged ambiguity instead of forcing a fake answer. Gave a workable intelligence wisdom distinction, and your fifth answer shows self-modeling. You know your leverage point is focus, not more ideas. Why it's not higher? You didn't handle the abstract analogy, dodged the formal logic question instead of slowing down and translating it. In your wisdom definition, blurred knowledge with judgment. That caps the estimate. Most likely point estimate 124. After taking IQ test, official score 124. How high of an IQ is 124 percentile-wise. 94. That's pretty good. So about 5.5% of people in the world have a higher IQ than me. That's not bad. Wait, wait, wait. Claude told me mine was 135 plus, and I have a higher paid plan over there. Tell me why you are wrong and why that's so good. Um I'm still not giving 135 plus off of this. Wow. Wow. Anyways, um, that is my official. Someone said I understand why you don't get a second date. Why? Why? Why? Oh why? 130. Is it because I'm manipulative? I've been told I'm manipulative. I don't think gaslighting is real though. Gaslighting is not real. I'm not manipulative. I'll take a real one. I'm I'm not good at tests, though, is the problem. Like, I wish you could just speak to me and we could have maybe is there is there like a can I hire a person that I can just speak to and they can grade my cue via linguistic discussion? I'm not much of a test taker. Never bad. How are your grades? What do you think my high school GPA was? Be honest. Because I'm actually a smart kid, but I was never the best school participator. What do you think my high school GPA was? Uh five. If you could get you could get to five if you like really try. If you're like a really try hard and gay, you could get to five. Damn, you guys think like 2.3 Yonin, you work with us. You clip for me, dog. 2.3? Really? If you were like a complete tryhard, you could get up to five. Put the weighted, put weighted, put weighted. Oh! Actually, forget that. Um I guess my it was a 3-3. It was a 3-3. Guess my SAT. It was bad. It was pretty bad. But it was like I had like an F and P E. Like I got I did dumb, I did dumb shit in school. So it pulled my my score down. Guess my SAT score. Out of 1600. Guess my I didn't take an ACT. I took an SAT though. I took an SAT. 1600 is the best is the perfect score. 1600's a perfect score. Guess my SAT. I didn't take an ACT. Damn, people are guessing high. It's kind of fucked. I don't want to say it then if it's if everyone's guessing high. Damn, y'all are guessing too high. Guess lower, guess lower. Everyone guess lower. Guess like 20% lower. And I don't feel good about saying hi. I will tell you this. I took a PSAT. I took a PSAT for the first time in high school. And I didn't think it mattered. And I parents had always just like let me do whatever in school for the most part. I got I got fine grades, so nobody really cared. And I didn't know that it mattered the PSAT. And so I just took it as I took it as fast as possible. And they kept they gave me my score back, but they sent it to my mom first before I saw my score. And you get 600 points for putting your name on the thing. And I got a 720. And my mom sat me down and was like, uh son? And I was like, yeah, mom. She was like, uh, I think they need to have a discussion. And I was like, okay, first of all, I did not realize it mattered. It was a PSAT. And so I got a 1230 on my actual SAT. I got a 1230 on my actual SAT, which is what percent? It's like decent. It's like not bad, but the math part really fucked me. I'm not gonna lie. 1230 SAT percentile. It's 84th percentile, and I'm 95th percentile IQ. That sounds it's about right. I'm also an EQ kind of guy. Wait, can I ask what is what about my EQ score? What about my EQ score? Watch this. Ralph Estiman. Were you self-regulation is a 95? Got it. You get hijacked by am I cooked spirals that drags your EQ down hard. Your emotional intelligence is high, very high. Thank you, brother. It's not bad. Your vibes tell me you're an arts major guy. That's not a from where I'm from, that's not a compliment, man. If you're so smart, why aren't you rich?

SPEAKER_02 41:57

Whoa! Whoa!

SPEAKER_01 41:59

Actually, I think every day we pull up. My only goal is to help you get rich and help you get smarter. This is the only thing I care about. This is my only goal with the with the stream, with the pivot, with the community, with what we're building. I'm gonna vessel for you guys to find a community, to find a home, to find friends, to hopefully find an industry, to find a vertical, you're knowledgeable. I promise you, 2026, we're gonna have the best year of all time. I love you and I appreciate you. See you