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The College Student Who Broke Polymarket - BrokieTrades
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Yo, yo, yo. Hello, hello. How are you?
SPEAKER_02Um, good, Mr. Brokey. This uh PFP might get me banned on Twitch. I hope not.
SPEAKER_03Oh well, it's it's it's just a joke. It's not I'm not the real Andrew Tate.
SPEAKER_02There we go.
SPEAKER_03Nor do I nor do I endorse. Well, I mean I endorse them.
SPEAKER_02I won't uh I won't hold you to that one either direction.
SPEAKER_03No. I I I I agree with them on some things, disagree on it.
SPEAKER_02We can save the Tate topic. Welcome to the stream, dude. It's an absolute pleasure to have you here. Um sick yes, sick PL, man.
SPEAKER_03Thank you, thank you. So I just want to clarify a few things. So um there's this concept on polymarket called neg risk. Basically, you can have option A, like you have outcome A, outcome B, outcome C. You know, um, if you buy no shares of outcome A, you can convert those no shares of outcome A into yes shares of outcome um B and C, assuming that that it's guaranteed that A, B, or C will occur. And because of this, I essentially neg risked um the no shares of JD Vance to um all of the other brackets. Now, I I also have yes shares on JD Vance, so it's a little bit confused, and and this is sort of like a polymarket bug. But regardless, so like all most of the PLs on that bracket are actually like incorrect.
SPEAKER_02Um but wait, can you can you back up and uh explain uh polymarket neg risk? I've never I don't know if that's crazy, but I've never heard that explained before.
SPEAKER_03Okay, so essentially, um you know you have you have let's say there's a sports event, right? And it's let's say it's soccer where you can tie in the first 90 minutes, right? Um, and one of those three outcomes will occur. Um, so basically, if you have no shares on you know um team B winning, it's the same as having yes shares, the same amount of yes shares on both team A winning or it's tying, right? Because mathematically there are only three options. Um, so the prices will be the same. You can go on any polymarket markets, and if you add up all the odds of yes on all the other brackets, they will add up to the price of no on um one of the other brackets, which is a fun thing. And bots actually are arbitrage using this.
SPEAKER_02Whoa, that's that's I've so how often are you like thinking about this and using this? Uh yeah, how how often are you thinking about this?
SPEAKER_03So I think it's very strategic because sometimes you can get um shares for cheaper, and obviously you can just use these market mechanics to make more money.
SPEAKER_02Whoa, that was thank you for the explanation. Let me back up like give me an intro. Who are you for as much as you want to share? And how like what is your trading experience in lore?
SPEAKER_03Yeah, so I guess I like my first experience in crypto was like not on prediction markets, you know. First it was actually OpenC. Uh, I I know you're just looking at that. I bought into some of those at the the higher prices. Um but that from there I went into MIB coins and uh yeah, now I recently I like two years ago I went into prediction markets. Um yeah, so I'm I'm primarily training prediction markets. I I think I've traded literally every category of prediction markets of market on polymarkets. Um and uh you know I I think I've made money on on all of them and I I think I just like always look for edge. I think I use like a lot of I use a lot of like just rational, common, like common sense, I want to say, although like that's a little bit rude to people that you know make make uh you know the are my counterparties. Um but um yes, so I I do a lot of that, and uh but more recently, like since February 28th, I'm primarily trading geopolitics uh because I have a lot of insights on there. So like on February 28th, obviously we know the United States commenced the military operation against Iran, and uh so on that market, you know, Khomeini ultimately like met his demise, but in between that, um many people were had not priced in this. So the odds of Khomeini being out, um Ali Khomeini, the father, the son obviously being Mochdaba, um, people hadn't priced this in. So it was like the market was roughly at 50 cents by the time I had woken up. Um, and I put bought a lot of shares of yes, and he turned out to die. I think people were trusting Iranian media, state media, in that scenario a lot. I'm just giving an example of a trade of how I use this edge. Um, so people trusted Iranian state media a lot, um, rather than you know looking at um the Israeli media. Israeli media was saying that you know this was a targeted strike, he's definitely dead. So I think this is this um was kind of my edge. That's like people in the West don't really understand that, you know, people don't know which media sources to trust. I I would say that like and I would also want to say like people in the West don't understand how to try and don't don't understand Islam, and as a result, you know, it some of these terrorist organizations don't uh make the right trades due to that.
SPEAKER_02Tell okay, I have a bunch. First, tell me what uh media outlets you should trust. Like, how do you know who to trust and who not to trust? There's been uh the notorious, I've looked also since February 28th, all we've covered is geopolitical geopolitics as well. And there's been the infamous uh Israeli news network 12 that has false reported like 10 different things, and markets have ripped whipsawed both directions.
SPEAKER_03And and that's why I don't like true so I mean it it's extremely hard, as you said. Um, I think you also have to think a lot about incentives when you're going through these problems. Um you know, I obviously like have I'm like there's some there are some like niche analysis, you know, news networks that probably have like very few um um like readers or viewers or listeners, but they have like extremely good insights. Um traditionally these are like either like universities or like some nonprofits, and I don't really want to say the names because you know it's a big edge, but there's sources like this, like they gave insights, for instance, into Muchtaba community being the leader, despite him being only priced at like five to 15 C on polymarkets. Um, when the Iranian clerks, which are like religious leaders, actually voted for him. Um, but yes, Muchtaba ultimately was the leader. By the way, I I want to make it clear there is like a controversy whether Muchdaba is truly alive. I don't know if you've gone over this. It is my opinion that give me the give me the breakdown and what you think. I think I think he's dead. Um like the the IRGC is incentivized to pick like a dead leader, you know, Muchtaba was already next in line, but when he died, like the like the leaders of the RGC would have significant more power if if they picked someone who's already dead, because um there wouldn't be like as much internal um you know like uh internal conflict. So I so I think that like if that's that to answer the question of why they would pick someone dead, it's because they would get much more power on an individual level. And and secondly, I think the whole story of Mochtaba's quote unquote survival from the compound, um it the story is like mentioned as him walking outside of the main compound, and he goes into this other part of the compound and then he r walks down the stairs back to the compound, and the Israeli bombs hit hit the compound, his his father's compound, killing his father, and Muchtaba Khomeini, thanks to Allah, his only his arm was was destroyed or hurt or something. And that story just seems so far-fetched that I I think it's uh you know, they're they're they they have to use like this religious figure to sort of justify I think it's extremely likely that Muchtaba is dead.
SPEAKER_02Okay. Is uh is there an active market that you're positioned in either direction on that?
SPEAKER_03Uh I have I have some some um I have some shares on on the yes that he'll be out. But okay. By by when? By the end of the year. But I'm just really worried that you know, even though I know he's dead, he could, you know, they they could just hide it because the RGC doesn't want to um make it clear. They they want the power, right? There, why are they gonna why are they gonna say Mojtaba's alive if they can keep this power and keep this sort of deception? Got it. Okay, like the RGC has no has no incentive to to to say Mojtaba is dead, and they would also have lied.
SPEAKER_02What did what do you do all day? Give me your like daily routine. Like, what are you doing all day? Are you are you how yeah, I'm a student. You're a student? This is like a part-time thing for you? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Like you're in university. Uh I mean, no comment. Sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry. You're that is insane though. So this is you're a student and you are trading prediction markets. Are you trading other markets? Are you mostly trading prediction markets?
SPEAKER_03Uh yeah, so I've also been trading um, you know, the oil markets on hyperliquid, um, which is very interesting, which is which has a very interesting mechanic because they are tied, they have an Oracle price. Like I'm sure everyone on the stream is familiar with hyperliquid and how you have the funding rate, and this essentially pegs you to the Oracle price. But if people believe the Oracle price to go down, for instance, you know, the war you like we can all agree the war will has like above an 80% chance to to uh resolve in the next like six months, right? And and and because of that, you know, the funding rates should in theory price down the market. Yes. As in like the funding rates um should make it such that longs pay sh such that shorts pay longs in the in the long run, because um, you know, the markets will end up there eventually. And you can actually, and I actually think hyperliquid, this funding rate is mispriced on hyperliquid, such that you know, if you open a short position for the next six months, um, you'll you'll make money. And I think this is actually one of the best instruments to short oil um because of this sort of mechanic.
SPEAKER_02Because you are heavily priced again, the war being over and that destroying oil.
SPEAKER_03Well, I don't think the markets like I don't I think the funding rate on hyperliquid like bounces a lot on on the specifically on the Brent oil, which is the one I've been trading. Okay. Um and you know, I I think that you will not pay that much money to short. I see like you won't lose that much money on on a funding rate. I I know you mentioned like trying to short or to long Bitcoin. Um, you know, I I I think I think the hyper liquid way is much more um it's a better way to do it. But I would also like to clarify, like I saw someone on your stream earlier said that you know they're short oil. I I'm I'm short oil in in short and in long run, but I'm I'm very long oil um in the short run in the next three days. I think I'm okay.
SPEAKER_02What happens in the next three days? Escalation this weekend.
SPEAKER_03I I I yes, I believe so. What do you bet against? But but but but like let's put it this way. I think it's like a 30% chance, right? So let's not I'm not sure.
SPEAKER_02Okay, and how do you come to how do you come to like what are you calculating when you come to 30% chance? It's like a specific number.
SPEAKER_03I I think is I can't put it's just I don't know. In the past there's not uh I I can't really like justify.
SPEAKER_02Interesting. And so what do you um how are you positioned for it and like what so how are you positioned for it in oil market? How are you positioned for it in prediction markets, and then what is your general read on like where this is going?
SPEAKER_03Well, I think this is this is one of the my my issues on prediction markets, like I don't necessarily always price in the news correctly, which is why I always um look for a substantial edge, like more than uh 20 per 20 to 30 percent. And and and for that reason, uh you know, I usually make I make money on like most of the trades. Um but so, anyways, to answer your question, I what I think like Trump will do is I think there will be a very short strike, and I think it will decapitate a lot of the um RGC, and I think he will like destroy a lot of the oil oil infrastructure and like energy power infrastructure. And I mean, I think that's I think Trump believes that doing that will allow um that will bring the Iran to the negotiating table in a place more willing to um give away the highly enriched uranium, which is the I would say like big like biggest factor by far about why um why why Trump hasn't you know met or agreed to the Iranian demands.
SPEAKER_02Interesting. What do you think about um uh trading what do you think about trading oil on hyperliquid versus trading some of the oil market to polymarket?
SPEAKER_03Yeah. I think the oil, like all markets in polymarket are time constrained, right? You know, they all have a resolution date. They will go to zero, one or fifty percent, um, depending on the market rules, by by whatever resolution date. And and because of this, you know, like I haven't always like the time frames are harder to predict than what will actually happen. Um, you know, I I saw this on my accounts, like I bet a lot on a US and Venezuela operation, but I bet on like uh you know late 2025 and it happened on the third of January of 2026, right? So I think time frames are harder to predict, and and for that reason, you know, sometimes it it is better to use perpetuals, but you know, sometimes I do have like shorter term conviction, and for that reason, you know, you I I would use polymarkets in that case. I think it really depends on the the opportunity.
SPEAKER_02Interesting. So where where have you been the most wrong since February 28th? Like what markets have you gotten wrong uh for the biggest losses?
SPEAKER_03Most wrong, yeah. Okay. Um I was so I I was very long oil right when it's been such a proof of trade. When the when the last ceasefire occurred, I was also very long oil at the beginning of the war and I made a lot of money, but uh yes, but but most recently where I lost money like since February 28th was um that these oil markets. And on Poli market, I think it was like similar related markets to that. I I I didn't think a ceasefire would occur. I I think the ceasefire has been rather stupid to be to be frank with you. And um, I had I listened to some analysis and it had basically said this is very interesting, that Axios, the the news agency, is essentially like Trump messaging. And you know, I I I and the messaging of Axios at the time was that's such that you know it uh oh Iran's not agreeing to a deal, you know, Trump's the peace guy, it's all Iran's fault. And and and that and that would be clear messaging um for for an operation, you know, like that justifies it. We Iran's trying to build a nuclear weapon, and uh, you know, they're not agreeing to this peace deal or giving us the heavily enriched uranium back. So I thought I was I was very I had a lot of conviction that that would be the messaging. Um, and I I honestly don't know why they did the ceasefire, and I'm I'm still confused with it to this day. I think it's probably pressure from the American people. Um, and you know, maybe oil prices were too high for Trump. But look looking back today, you know, the straits still closed. Um, if you some people speculate maybe we go to no deal, um uh no nuclear deal and no no reopening of the straits, which would also bring oil up. But but yeah, I think there are like a lot of factors.
SPEAKER_02Well, are you not like okay? I dude, I've been trading oil non-stop too, and I'm kind of cucked on it. Like, I the reason I said long BTC instead of short oil is like, okay, if if war uh Trump comes out, whatever we have the actual ceasefire war uh uh peace, war is done. Oil is gonna crater down, but I also have this there's you know three months of the closure of the trade of war moves, which accounts for you know 20 plus percent. I I don't know how what the long-term impacts of like supply chain oil are. There's also all the stuff that's happening in Russia, uh, oil fields, refineries are getting blown up. I have no concept for how to account for the long-term effects of that. And so uh oil short, longer than that first red like leverage candle. I don't know what to do with. Yeah, and and you want to hear something interesting?
SPEAKER_03Yes, so um I'm just thinking I should say this. Whatever. I I know I know that hedge funds um are the opposite of you. They they do not know how to they don't know how to trade um this conflict, they don't know what's going on. Um, but they what what do these hedge funds that trade energy understand? I I uh they they understand you know supply and demand, obviously. They understand like all of these other effects, and I think that's what they're good at. But what they're not good at, and where we can gain an edge as as retail as or I don't know if I'm retail, I I don't know, right? But what whatever I'm classified as, where I can gain an edge, is from is is from like these geopolitics, um, which which which you say which we say we understand, but uh you know I I think it's the inverse of what the hedge funds understand, which is quite fascinating, and and is where we gain an edge. Did you watch the whole stream today? Uh I I watched some of it.
SPEAKER_02Can you um where does retail edge exist in 2026?
SPEAKER_03If you're really, really smart, you know, everywhere, if you're like average IQ, like don't uh just like buy SP.
SPEAKER_02Uh what is the level of how smart you have to be to uh extend beyond buy SP?
SPEAKER_03I don't know, maybe like 130 IQ plus.
SPEAKER_02What is that? Like how how smart is that? I don't know. I don't I've never done an IQ test.
SPEAKER_03I don't I don't know, I don't know. I I think I I think I'm like 145. I don't I don't know. What percent is 145? Let's see.
SPEAKER_02I don't know, like maybe 95. Uh I mean that's top 1-3% of of the general population. 1 in 700 people. And there's a hundred there's like probably 250 people watching the stream. So by uh default, over the next three days, you would be the smartest person in the stream. Just off like pure math. I think that's correct.
SPEAKER_01Can you hear me or no? It's you, it's you, it's you. No, no, don't worry, don't worry, don't worry. Yo, yo, yo, check, chuck, check. Hey, tell me to leave and come back. Where's the uh I can't find the channel then? You y'all can hear me, right?
SPEAKER_02What should I ask it? What do you gotta be asking? Not that smart. What IQ do you think I have? What IQ do you think I have? Be honest. I'll take an IQ test on stream, I swear I'll do it. Can we do a short one? How long how long can an IQ test be?
SPEAKER_03Yo, my wifi canal. Okay, you're back, you're back, you're back.
SPEAKER_02Sorry, sorry, sorry. Dude, that uh that's one in 700. What? Yeah, yeah, that's high. Did you make that up or you took a test? No, I took like some test. And so you think if you're under 115 IQ, you should not trade. I didn't think we'd buy it.
SPEAKER_03I didn't know it was that I didn't I didn't know it was that high to me. Give me no, give me the full take. Like, give me, give me like a number.
SPEAKER_02Well, I look like you just or you just made your IQ up. It's not true.
SPEAKER_03No, no, I took the test. I I can screenshot you the results. I mean, whatever. So maybe, maybe, maybe, maybe it's like 120 plus. But I I think also, like, you know, there are people with lower IQs that are very successful in life and in these sorts of industries. So I I think what why are you laughing at me? It's just good. Keep going, keep going, keep going.
SPEAKER_02It's just fun. The chat's just like geek to the IQ take. They they like the IQ take.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, yeah, good, good. Okay. Um, I think a lot of people are like, I think also what a lot of people don't understand, like just talking to people. They don't understand that you need to actually like have an edge and you need to like justify why something's not priced in. And if you can't justify why that's why that you know, why it's not priced in, then you should not make the trade.
SPEAKER_02Um I think that's a good take. Um, when or like how did you realize you could make money in a poly market for the first time? Like, where did you realize you have an edge?
SPEAKER_03I think it probably was like Middle East or like uh copy trading people.
SPEAKER_02Copy trading people, what's your strategy for copy trading people?
SPEAKER_03I I well I wouldn't say copy trading. I I think I think it's actually the opposite of copy trading. I think one way to get no well so okay. So one way to get some some more edge on pulling markets is to um you know, I I think it's very, very valuable to speak to your counterparty, to speak with the um other side. So so I essentially like if there's some markets, like sometimes it's hard to know why why it's priced in this way, and you know, by talking with people on the other side, you can essentially just find um why why they why they are betting on that side, and you can find if they're complete idiots, and uh yeah.
SPEAKER_02Okay. So how often are you talk how often are you trading solo in a silo versus talking to other traders? Like how much of your trading is like independent versus like crowdsourced?
SPEAKER_03I think it's like 50-50 on on oil, it's like only me because like obviously there's no um data there's no no nobody else I know is like trading the oil futures.
SPEAKER_02Interesting. Um it's interesting depending on hyper liquid. Like, how many uh polymarket traders that are good in prediction markets are making money in other vehicles like hyper liquid, crypto markets, whatever?
SPEAKER_03Uh I know you. Had like map on your stream like a few yeah uh months or weeks ago. Um, I I know he like bought like oil futures, maybe it was like using Tradfy. Um but I I I'd say the percent is like maybe five to ten.
SPEAKER_02Interesting. What do you think is gonna what do you think is gonna happen? Um we talked about at the beginning very briefly. What do you think is gonna happen with 2028? Rubio, Vance, the other side as well.
SPEAKER_03So Ruby is not gonna run. Um, you know, Ruby Ruby enjoys his his job as you know Secretary of State, and he's not gonna want to go on the campaign trail. Risk probably will lose, by the way. Um, and you know, he he's he's going he would rather retain his secretary of state's job. And and because of this, I just don't think he'll he's gonna run because he he he won't want to go on the campaign trail. I think that's much more on on JD Vance's path. I think the fair value for JD is is likely.
SPEAKER_02Dude, I feel like they're sabotaging Vance. Like JD Vance, who was the most uh in-trap admin, the most they are, yeah, the most anti-Middle East war. War starts, he says nothing the entire time. The first time they let JD Vance speak, they throw him to Pakistan to do negotiations that was next. I can I can tell you why.
SPEAKER_03Okay. They're they're they're they're they're saving Marco, who is who's in my opinion, a remarkable candidate for 2032. And they know 2023.
SPEAKER_022032?
SPEAKER_03Fuck, are we gonna make it that long? I I mean that's the that's the assumption, I suppose. Why would they save him for 2032?
SPEAKER_02Because the 2020 election is cooked, yes. You think it's cooked regardless? Yes, yes. And so what, Gavin Newsom? Uh like or AOC, I guess.
SPEAKER_03Are you betting on it? That direction? I I I haven't bet on like candidates. I've bet on um the the the party winner. And I've bet on JD Vance over Marco like by selling my yes shares. But uh yeah. I I do think like AOC is much more much less likely than um Gab than Gavin Newsom I though. It's just like those are the top two. I know I'm just reading what chat's saying.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, fair. I mean, I yeah, there's yeah, I mean AOC is tough, right? But I guess we'll see. I I don't have much of a take on 2028 at all outside of the repo Republican side. We'll we'll see.
SPEAKER_03We'll see. I I think if if AOC like wins and gets nominated, like, or if it's very clear she's going to win, like obviously. Um someone said apply to Jane Street. Yeah, I I got an interview, anyways. Uh uh if AOC runs, I think Marco is much more likely to run because you know she's such a weak candidate and she's way too extreme, and Marco's pretty centrist or right of center, I guess.
SPEAKER_02How do you trade uh like Trump announc trade directly and around Trump announcements and speeches?
SPEAKER_03His announcements and speeches. I think you need to be very careful because Trump says a different thing every day. I recently charted like Trump's statements on like graphing from um you know how likely he is to make a deal versus how likely it is to escalate, and it literally like spiked up and down every single day. So I think you have to be very careful on what he says. He says a different thing every day, especially with the Suran W. And you know, that that's a big risk uh if you're just like fully going into like one statement after he said it. Um and the markets actually like have begun to understand this a little bit more, but you know, they still fluctuate with these varying statements. Um, obviously, like when he says we've just secured a two-week ceasefire um through our through our mediators in Pakistan, like obviously that's a that's a very clear signal. But beyond that, like a lot, I think a lot of what he says varies day to day. What uh what's been your biggest win?
SPEAKER_02Like, or maybe maybe not just pure PL, but the trade that you're the most proud of.
SPEAKER_03Trade I'm the most proud of.
SPEAKER_02Yeah.
SPEAKER_03Um I think I I'm I'm very proud of the the uh like commanding trade. Uh that that was pretty good. I'm I'm I'm very I'm fairly proud of like I I've just traded so many like really small markets. Yeah, that's the thing. With like where I've made like I I my trades are actually like pretty small, at least they were uh until like recently, like where I kind of sized up. Um but yeah, so like I have so many, like just like a few thousand dollar wins. Yeah, yeah. But but you know, that just makes money.
SPEAKER_02Huh. Um, dude, I've enjoyed talking to you. Give me like a uh give me a uh like what is it what do you tell people or advice that you give people to try to figure out how to make money or where to make money on polymarket? Like, how do you make money on polymarket if you're a profitable crypto trader or elsewhere?
SPEAKER_03Make make make sure you have your edge. Make make sure you can justify where the market's mispriced, make sure um you know you understand why people are betting on the other direction. Um make sure you have all the information and um don't be afraid to not take a trade because not taking a trade is a trade, basically. Who who do you think we should get on? Who are like your favorite polymarket traders? Favorite polymarket traders. I think I think I'll get my my friends remember on like on. He's he's pretty smart. He he's pretty he's a sharp, he's made like I don't know, maybe a million dollars in the last uh few since he started like a year and a half ago. Um yeah, that I think he's he's he's a great guy to talk to. Obviously, you already spoke with Map, who's great as well. What do you think is the upper bound of how much you could make on poly? Like you specifically, upward bound me with my strategy, yeah. I think a few few few few million a year, which is why I'm like I'm excited for there to be much more liquidity, and you know, uh obviously like Polymer can announce perpetuals. I I think I would ultimately like need to expand my strategy um to to other like markets beyond Geopol, and I would need to be much more frequent um and and much more online.
SPEAKER_02Huh. Um dude, I just I I uh appreciate you coming on. This this is sick. It's like a different side. Um, is there any any uh anything you want to shill, anything you want to sign off with, recommend people to direct links, whatever. Your Twitter's on here. I'm sure people some people are following you on the stream.
SPEAKER_03No, no, I don't I I don't I don't I don't have anything to promote. Just check out my Twitter page, Brooke Traits. Dude, the PFP is killing me by the way at the beginning. It's hard to focus. I I apologize. It's a it's a joke, but okay, man.
SPEAKER_02Thanks for coming on stream, brokey. It was a pleasure, man. It was great to meet you. Maybe we'll uh we'll do it again in a minute at a million PO. Yes. All right, thank you. Bye, my brother. Much love, dude. Peace. The guy's nuts, man. I I I like that. That was fun. He's fucking those are the type of people I like to talk to. Those are the type of people I like to talk to. Um he's up, damn, he's up 500k.
SPEAKER_01Impressive.
SPEAKER_02He thinks a couple million a year, too. Impressive. Shout out to uh shout out to Brookie Trades. Fucking I followed it. I think he's a good follow. I just followed him too. I I hadn't followed him before. Um these polymarket guys are hilarious, they're really funny. Shout out to Brookie.