SPEAKER_04 0:01

Welcome back to the stream. Welcome back to the stream. Welcome back to the fucking stream. Look, uh here's the deal is like we have to take we have to take these fits seriously. It's just turning into a fashion show. I had this fit on before where I had like, okay, I'm wearing this like a really tight chain. It's like a choker. It doesn't choke me, but it's low-key a choker. It's a 16-inch. I probably should have got an 18-inch. And I was wearing a wife beater under this, like a small wife beater, like a really tight one that would like came down. And my chest hair was flinging out. And we had a whole debate about whether or not I was allowed to wear the fit or not. And I called my mom as the final verdict, and she said, Son, I love you. And she just looked at me like this. I said, All right, fine. I took it off and we pivoted to the banker shirt. So I'm fucking hype. Welcome back to the stream, man. It's a beautiful day here in New York City, New York. Market closes in 12. The SP is only down half a percent, which all things considered is not very bad. We have a lot to cover, we have a lot to get into. We have big earnings. We have Robin Hood. We have Elon lawsuits going on as we speak with scam. I mean Sam Altman. We have the Wall Street Journal FUD article on OpenAI. We got Paul Tudor Jones dropped an art uh a podcast. Um, we have some oil stuff, specifically the UAE leaving OPEC, which seems to be a pretty big deal. And then as always, we got the general market stuff. We have hood earnings, we have huge ones tomorrow, we have FOMC tomorrow, and then of course, if that was not enough, we have the star of FinTwit coming on the show today. He goes by the name of Bubble Boy, B-U-B-B-L-E-B-O-I. And I am of the understanding that he is now post-economic after the Intel trade. He's probably like the Intel guy. I went, I went deep on his Twitter yesterday, which by the way is no fucking easy easy fate. It took me 30 minutes to get to April 10th, and then I just gave up trying to read all of his tweets. But he references a bunch of old tweets where he was shilling Intel at February 25. Like he'd been shilling Intel for absolutely ever. And some are calling him Intel G CR. I think or all of the fuckery that's going on in this AI bottleneck, photonics, rotate out further. This is a bottleneck. No, that's a bottleneck. No, this is a bottleneck. No one knows what a bottleneck is. I think he's one of the people that can come here and talk to us about what a bottleneck is. What's actually interesting, what's actually has value, what's actually important, and where should we actually focus. And so if you have no idea what's going on in some of this AI stuff and you're trying to figure it out, Bubble Boy interview, I think, is gonna be absolute cinema. I dressed up for him. I have sweatpants on underneath, can't show you that, but I dressed up for him. I threw a banker fit on, I threw the white blazer. I've been looking for an excuse to wear the white blazer. This thing was not fucking cheap. So I got my excuse. I threw the fit on, Bubble Boy. I'm looking good for you, baby. I have a lot I want to say, I have a lot to get off my chest, I have a lot to cover, and we have a lot to go over if we're gonna fucking stay on top of these markets. So I did start watching Game of Thrones. Okay, I started watching Game of Thrones for the second time, and um three episodes in. I see a lot of myself in Cal Jirogo. I think uh I see a lot of myself when I look at him. And the one thing that's so crazy to me to think about is I'm watching Game of Thrones and thinking to myself as I watch it on my Amazon Prime subscription with my iPhone in front of me and my throat coat T and my laptop in front of me, and I'm looking at hyperliquid equity perps, thinking about Robinhood options, reading base 16Z tweets, and I'm thinking to myself, basically, for all of human humanity, people walked around in wool coats with swords on foot and horseback and ate like cow jerky and didn't have an internet connection. I'm just watching how these people live and I'm like, man, I would have done well in that era because I could do well in any era, but unbelievable that these people, this is how most of humans lived ever. Like, we just live in an anomaly time. Yeah, how do they eat without YouTube? How do they trade? How do they what do they do all day without 24-7 hyperliquid perps? Second thing is I bought an on-chain coin yesterday. I bought an on-chain coin and I bought a lot of it. And I'm not here to show you the on-chain coin because it's down a lot, and I actually think it's a bad coin. But I am here to tell you I'm having mixed opinions on trading in public. It's very difficult because my somebody posted my perps account as well when I longed. What did I long? I longed NVIDIA on the breakout, close at a loss, small loss, but I longed on the breakout is a decent trade and close at a loss just because I'll talk about why I think the market it's a tough market to trade right now if you're sideline. This is one of the things I want to talk about about is I'm actually struggling trying to figure out what to do in this market with equities because it's like, what do you what do you do? You know, there's so it's so overextended, and we're going further and further and further out on the risk curve. The accounts are getting scammier and scammier, and we have this oil overhang continuing. There's just like a I don't know, it's a very weird spot, but trading in public is weird, man. And I don't know how I feel about it, but trading in public is weird, and these on-chain guys are so brutal, man, because you talk shit about meme coins and everybody calls you a retard, and then you bid meme coins, and then everybody calls you a retard. It's like, man, it's so it's a weird spot. Like it doesn't feel good to be wrong when you call your shot, and it also doesn't feel good to be really right, and then people have FOMO, and then you make money, but people in the pit lose money because they got excited because you were excited, they chase your entries, and it still ends up in a weird spot. Also, one more thing. Um, I have a guest announcement for May 13th, Wednesday. That would be two weeks from now. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think it's the favorite my one. I think it's probably the favorite guest that I have a uh message out to right now. And it's one, it's probably the most no, it's not V16. I never asked him, I'm scared to ask him. Um, it's probably the most requested guest guest that has ever been discussed on the stream. Not the biggest, but the most requested, I would argue. He's probably the most requested guest. Wednesday, May 13th at 5 p.m. ST will be joined by Chris Camillo. Let's go, man. Chris Camillo, let's go. Fucking go, man. We're moving up. We're moving up. And yeah, let's go. It's gonna be very evident very soon that if you are a big trader or you're a big founder with a public asset that can be traded, you come on counterparty, you come on the Thread Guy stream because we have people in this chat that are young, that are hungry, and that actually move markets, that actually trade, that actually have size, that actually participate. And so Chris Camillo will be joining us on the stream very shortly. I'm fucking stoked. And we will also be joined by Bubble Boy today. I'm so hype on the retail, like the non-quant guy that trades his own book, moves real size, moves real money. I'm fucking hype about like it's just like my favorite archetype. Um, we have a lot to get into today. Somebody update me if Robin Hood uh earnings come out ASAP.

SPEAKER_03 7:15

It's out Robin Hood 1.07 billion. They missed hard.

SPEAKER_04 7:19

They missed, they missed hard. Oh, bummer.

SPEAKER_03 7:21

1.07 versus 1.7. So this this was worse than what the analysts had already revised down for. Fuck revenue way worse. Revenues up 15% year over year. EPS also missed by a penny. EPS is up three percent year over year.

SPEAKER_02 7:36

Wow, their their take rates must have been so much lower.

SPEAKER_03 7:41

Starbucks getting a nice pump right there. We'll check that out. Spikes, no numbers yet. T Mobile, that is up. Seagate 606. Almost 607, now 601. Visa crush Bloom 237. How much is this up? Up from 228.

SPEAKER_04 7:57

Yeah, Visa Crush.

SPEAKER_03 7:59

Uh Visa, I'm just looking at their numbers here. They're got a double beat, beat by 7% on EPS, beat by 4% around 331 versus. Let's see.

SPEAKER_02 8:08

I think they might have a little bit of a micron. I honestly will you could probably even buy now. I think this might be similar to micron, where the beat was so big that people wanted to hear a little bit more. Bloom. This is a middle. Wow, this is nuts. Uh this is one of Chris Camillo's biggest stuff. Dude, Bloom is is gonna run. Look at this thing.

SPEAKER_04 8:26

Here's the update. Oh my god. Wow.

SPEAKER_00 8:30

That is a monster, huh?

SPEAKER_04 8:34

It's like 10% after hours. What else?

SPEAKER_00 8:37

Revenue coming in.

SPEAKER_04 8:38

Hood, we saw cut again. Trying to hold Bloom.

SPEAKER_00 8:41

1.8 billion expected revenue, also weaker than expected. Man, down seven percent 23 million. It's down 20% sequentially. Just equities and crypto revenue all missed consensus. What do you think it is for Robinhood? Do you think it's crypto? Their rates came down. Uh yeah, GEO, why start using the platform, and those customers typically management is also pointing to customer deposits and decided rates.

SPEAKER_03 9:07

Okay, so before we go deeper into hood, Bloom is up 10%. Seagate is pumping. I just want to say something that all three of us have been talking about for the past couple days. Bloom and C gate both up 10%. I'm gonna watch for a second. Is obsessed and with a good reason for AI data center infrastructure stocks. Bloom is in there, even though it has an expensive multiple. Seagate's in there, and their multiple is actually quite healthy. And if they put up the growth and you're part of that thematic because the whole entire world is spending trillions and trillions of dollars on this stuff, you're gonna get a pump. It's just that simple. People would rather pay a higher multiple for something that they know is in the right versus something like software. What is this, dude? What's happened with the IGB over the past couple months? And so I think that's another hand, unfortunately.

SPEAKER_04 9:47

For hood and would you ever get a co-host potentially if they were sick? I'd rather just have guests every day. So they're top wick on this thing is not.

SPEAKER_03 9:54

We don't have Teradine's numbers yet, right?

SPEAKER_04 9:56

All right, that's crazy. Wow, wow. Likely's in your PC right now. Crazy. Um, all right, let's go over market close. Let's go over market close. Let's do our normal flow here, and we'll get into the swing of things. We'll we'll we'll look check back in on some of these companies' uh earnings and see how they trade, see how hood does. Let's get into it. But without further ado, let us go over market close here. And we have spy SP 500 coming in with its first red day in a couple down half a percent. It was down more, it got to 708 and some change, maybe 709 on the dot, 708. Um, Q's down a full percent, 657, IGV down half, um, SPX down half. The Dow is flat, NASDAQ down one, and the semiconductor index down four percent socks back to back red days. It is now 5.5 off highs, five and a half percent off highs. Look, I know it's been up only forever, but it is down five and a half percent off of highs. Crypto is just completely uninspiring right now. I don't have a better word for you than uninspiring. Um, VIX is down a percent. Zcash is 334 and looks terrible. Our guest tomorrow created Zcash in alts pretty well, Tolks. I'm excited to have him on. Uh, Bitcoin just ugh weak 76.4, ETH under 2300 and holding on this line for dear life. Solana is under 84 and looks like it wants to puke. Hike really under 40, Monero 378, wavy 80, nice close. Bitcoin dominant 6050. Looks I like BTCD being high right now. I'm not gonna lie. I want Bitcoin to trade well. Um, blah blah blah. Stretch under 100. That means there's no reason to check this, but we'll do it anyways. 5.2 BTC for Sailor Gold, pretty ugly. 46 and silver is 73 and looks like it wants to lose it. I drew this line a long time ago. Why does soul suck so much? Soul sucks so much because it needs a new narrative. It doesn't have a narrative. It sucks for the same reason ETH sucks. What's the narrative to push Soul above 300? I don't know what it is. I really don't know what it is. Energy here is starting to feel a little bit scary, I would argue. Um starting to feel a little bit scary. Now, this would print a nasty head and shoulders, but you know, a rip above 102 and some change on CL, and all of a sudden you're you're scared, right? Like this could print a nasty chart and we could be done with it, but I don't know what exactly is gonna happen here. What's the trade for UAE leaving OPEC? I think short-term bearish oil, long-term deep uncertainty in the oil markets as to uh like hierarchy is gonna be shaken up. So I don't really know. Um crude up four, Brent up two, and then a lot of these energy names. I added quite a few of them yesterday. I added NRG yesterday down three and a half, I added VST down three and a half, I added CEG down three, and I added TLN down 2.3. This was if we're following hallucination yield, by the way, this TLN name is what um GP likes the most for a long energy that is in bloom. Um, it's 16 billion dollar name TLN, and they have a I think they have a bunch of contracts. It's considered a high conviction AI infrastructure play, notably partnering with Amazon used to power data centers with nuclear energy. So just I'm not in, I'm not in it not in it, but just flagging the hallucination yield to trade uh open AI and Claude like TLN as a bloom energy beta, and then the gas names are up a little bit. Fence is Palantir's down 1.3 with IGV, Nox up half, uh Lockheed's basically flat, and Raytheon's up a little bit, but these have traded terrible. These have traded like not only I saw this tweet that like Raytheon is trading like not only is the war over, but we will never go to war again. So interesting. It's a funny tweet. And then here we are with big tech. So Sive Serenity main name. We'll look at the Serenity Index in a second. Sive is a serenity main name, chart looks kind of ridiculous, but it's up eight percent today. It got crushed when Poet got crushed yesterday on that they broke and then lost their contract with Barvell, which we covered. That was fucking hilarious. It kind of got dragged down, but it's up eight percent. Adobe looks terrible. Apple is up a percent. Um, Microsoft, here's the big zoomed out MSFT chart, is up a percent, Netflix up a percent, and then everything else is pretty red today. Google basically chilling at all-time highs, flat Intel, which is the bubble boy stock, which we will talk about today for a while, is I mean, it looks yeah, it looks insane. Down basically down half a percent today, but it looks nuts, chilling at all-time highs. Um, Amazon down half, also chilling at all-time highs. Tesla down a percent. And man, if there was ever a time for me to learn how to short, maybe this is the time. SpaceX inside Elon Musk's pay to massive milestones, including a 7.5 trillion valuation, a million person Mars colony, which is so ridiculous, and space-based data centers. He only gets paid if SpaceX hits the targets. But the structure also puts more pressure on the biggest question on Musk is how much attention Tesla actually gets. Now, this is crazy because all of the Elon paydays to come from here are dependent on ridiculous goalposts for SpaceX. Like he has to basically not only change the world, but like revolutionize other planets, not just change Earth, but change other planets if he's gonna hit these pay packages. And the way you could think about it is I think it's very zero sum, right? The it's it's uh every second he spends on Tesla is one second he cannot spend on getting people to Mars and getting a million person colony on Mars. And so this, I'm sorry, I know it's Elon. I know we're not dealing with altcoins, and I know these are way bigger assets, but it feels very akin to a slow rug of a second coin, Andre crypto DeFi andre. So, anyways, meta down a percent, NVIDIA. This is kind of a scary chart if we don't get a follow-through on this, right? Like it's fine if we get a 200 retest and some change, but scary without a follow-through. I I would imagine. MD down three. This is Bloom was down a couple percent, but after hours, this thing just candled back. Sandisc is down a bunch today, down six percent, and then arm is down eight. Moving over some of our consumer names, anything we care about, not really. Where's Hymns? Down five percent to 28. It looks like, guys, look at how we binked that sell. I cannot lie. I'm pretty happy with my with my cell. Exit on the second leg, enter on the second leg aggressively, exit on the beginning of the third, and then if you miss out on 20, you miss out on 20. Oracle down five on some of this open AI news, which we will cover a little bit today. Hood crushed down three, and then down another six after earnings, and then Snapchat, which for some reason is all over my feed again. Is Snapchat all over your feed? Or is that just me? Is down about two percent today. Last but not least, um, twofold. One, the serenity list, just me. Sive up a lot, poet somehow up, but it's gonna be fun to follow. I mean, I don't the the CEO of this company owns fifty thousand dollars of the stock. Okay, it's a one billion dollar stock, and the CEO owns fifty thousand dollars of it. I don't know how this could ever go up again. So we'll follow this, and then everything else on the serenity list is kind of down bad. Light down eight, ayer down seven, plied down six, coherent down six, KLA down five, Marvell down three, AXT I down two. Last but not least, Alt Galaxy up a bunch, looks good, tau up three, farcoin, nothing really to see here. Zcash on a bunch, Mona down a bunch, chip, pretty uninspiring. Um everyone just like call me out. This scam Altman shit is so gay. Jupiter down, yeah, everything, everything pretty uninspiring again. I'm gonna keep using that word today because I think that's the best that I got. And then we'll look at on-chain real quick because I like a retard bought something on-chain. I bought this garbage because I thought it was funny and it's done a lot. Scam Altman, five mil. Amit was actually talking about it today, which was which was funny. Bernie, 15 mil, decent. Uh, car, I don't know, cards. What do you think care about? Where's Quant? Cards looks fine, I guess. 20. Asteroid, 112, and it is holding on for Deer Life Boar. I'm not even gonna look at that. Cards is interesting, but they are yeah, look at Ang, I guess. What five mil? Yeah. On-chain. Until further notice, I'm completely uninterested in on-chain. Sorry, I don't have to tell you. I ate some shit yesterday just to see, and I also got called out pretty bad yesterday for talking shit about NFTs, and so I wanted to see what exactly was going on in NFTs. Am I like I can't believe I'm doing this, but is there anything here for a price 30 days? Is it really up a hundred percent? Huh? What about like open sea volume? Is there anything here? Wow, not bad. I mean, it wasn't really like it could get much worse. Is this monthly volume? Nah, yeah. I mean, you look at it here and it's a complete nothing burger. Really? Yeah. What is this is terrible. Defy Llama, let me look real quick. Everybody was shitting at me, NFTs are back. Thread guy, you're a hater. I'm like, are you sure? Guys, I'm gonna go, I'm gonna take the other side of that until the absolute last second. Yeah, okay. Cool. Is open sea revenue? Cool, cool, cool, cool, cool. Got it. So I'm the I'm uh the problem here. This is uh completely uninspiring. Anyways, that is where we are at on the markets. That's how we look today. Big news today in the oil markets. So a couple things. One Trump tweet. Imagine just informed us they are in a state of collapse. They want us to open the strait as soon as possible. This is just like so ridiculous. So you're trying to figure out the leadership situation, which I believe they will be able to do. Thank you for your attention to this matter, President Donald J. Trump. Um, it's funny that they're asking the US to open the strait. What you know, what is even really going on there? It's pretty funny. But the big news is the UAE has decided to exit OPEC. They work together, all these oil-producing countries or petroleum-producing countries, to basically give limits on who can produce what and how much you can produce so there isn't an oversupply. I mean, oil is like one of the most abundant resources in the world, right? And so they work together to coordinate on production, on pricing, on supply, and to figure out how much to sell, when to sell it, how to do it, right? And the UAE has left, which I interpreted as they will now just produce as much as possible. And short term, it's probably bearish for oil, right? Because there'll be more in supply, more in the supply chain. This is how I interpret it. Short term, it's bearish for oil. Long term, it's pretty unclear how the hierarchy of oil production evolves as a result of this. Therefore, you could probably call it bullish oil. I don't know, uncertainty is bad for markets, bullish oil bad for is bad for markets, right? Bearish oil, good for markets. And so it definitely, I think, like the the read that I was getting reading other people's posts and their takes is that it's uncertain. People don't really know what this means, how this evolves, and how this plays out. And so you get that at the same time that you know, oil looks like this, and it's a little bit, uh I don't really know. So that announcement came out today, and this guy from the UAE also said that oil market needs extraordinary measures, and so there was a little bit of a market sell off today. I think there's a couple ways to look at it. So Trini had a post, and so two things happened. One, there is war drama, this OPEC thing, and just oil in general going up. And then second is this Wall Street Journal article came out about open AI being way off on revenue and user growth. And the reason that's a problem is that open AI has these massive contracts. I think $600 billion of contracts in partnership with Oracle to build out data centers for open AI. They're supposed to pay back in the next like by 2030. And so they have ridiculous. Ridiculous CapEx commits, and they have to sort of achieve ridiculous goals to get there. And so this FUD article comes out basically the same what day after the Microsoft soft split happens with OpenAI. And everybody was panicking. This dump was open AI, but I don't know. So Trunia does this take, and so it's pretty obvious that the cell of today is much more about Iran than about open AI. And so I don't know exactly what is true here or what is not true here, but one thing that is definitely true and the case is that this is a weird market to navigate. Like I am finding myself unsure what to do as far as positioning. I'm mostly in cash. I am clicking around a little bit. Like I clicked in NVIDIA ATH Break because it just felt like I'm a crypto trader. I just felt like the brain thing to do is to click ATH Break on the biggest company in the world. And then I let it just get stopped because I was whatever. I I wasn't convicted to sitting it. And then you look around on these charts, especially like the Serenity names, and these pretty like small cap. I mean, this company is what? This is a billion-dollar company getting pumped up before the dump, you know, up, you know, 220% here, 220% here. This is a three billion dollar company since like April 1st, ATH, 130% here, 140% here, 140% here, rotation, rotation, rotation, bottleneck, bottleneck, bottleneck, bottleneck, bottleneck. And so you have shielders getting a lot louder, assets that were pumping getting further and further out on the risk curve. You have this looming situation that just, I don't know, it's not going away. It feels like at some point this is gonna be a problem. I don't know enough to know when it's gonna be a problem, but it is gonna be a problem at some point, I think. Maybe, maybe not, but it seems like increasingly, yes, this oil thing is gonna be a problem. At the same time, you have these scary articles coming out about OpenAI, um, Wall Street Journal, that they're like way off on revenue, missing. People are panicking there. You have FOMC tomorrow. You have like one of the biggest earning days in I don't know how long, tomorrow as well. Tomorrow we have SoFi, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Google, Ford, Qualcomm, Chipotle tomorrow, Apple on Thursday, MasterCard on Thursday. And you, I don't know, you're seeing these small caps pump and rip and get bit up to ridiculous after the big caps also made a move. And if you're sidelined, it's a weird time to get in. You know what I mean? It's it's a very weird time to start taking positions. And so I'm finding myself a little bit, I'm a little bit frustrated. I'll be honest. I want exposure, I want to buy, but it doesn't feel right to click here. It doesn't feel right to click here, but it also doesn't feel right to be sidelined on the on the you know biggest risk asset melt up of all time if it continues. And so, what exactly do you do there? I don't fully know. I made seven figs buying a XTI in January and selling a month ago. Let's look at that chart. AXTI. Where am I? Where am I? Where am I? Wow. Yeah, this thing's a monster. You told a month ago, huh? Nice. This thing's a monster, but it is definitely a weird spot if you are just now entering. Um, we'll come back to markets. Let's go over open AI real quick. So this article comes out today that caused, I think, a lot of panic. And the, you know, a little bit of a narrative violation of AI goes up only. So open AI misses key revenue user targets and high stakes sprint towards IPO. So this article comes out today from the Wall Street Journal exclusive, and it says OpenAI recently missed its own targets for new users and revenue. Now keep in mind, these numbers are ridiculous. I think that they uh the number is like a billion weekly active users, is the goal. It's like something, it's like 20% of the world population. Um, open AI recently missed its own targets for new users and revenue. Stumbles that have raised concern among some company leaders about whether it'll be able to support massive spending on data centers, specifically Oracle. I think that's $600 billion committed to OpenAI for data center butts. CFO Sarah Fryer has told other company leaders she is worried the company might not be able to pay for future computing contracts if revenue doesn't grow fast enough, according to people familiar with the matter. Now, the problem with this is that this feels like an underwhelming headline. Like this, everybody knows this is that the the worry is that OpenAI and these labs can't grow fast enough and can't generate revenue fast enough to be able to uphold these contracts. You didn't exactly say anything new, and so I'm not sure how warranted the panic was or the fear was on the timeline today. But regardless, it it was posted, it came out. This is like what we've been talking about for a year. Plus, this has been the discussion for this is the Brad Gersner clip. You know what I'm talking about, though. He asked them how you know he asked Sam, how are you gonna be able to commit to these massive contracts that you have? How are you gonna be able to pay back these massive contracts? And Sam replies, and he's like, if you would like to buy my shares, Brad, I'm sure we could find you. If you would like to sell your shares, Brad, I'm sure we could find you a buyer, right? And it's the same, it's the same, and the clip's like a year old at this point, so it's nothing new. Board directors are also also more closely examined the company's data center deals in recent months and questioned CEO Sam Altman's effort to secure more computing power despite the business slowdown. The spending scrutiny is constraining Altman's once boundless ambitions ahead of a potential IPO that could take place by the end of the year. This is the real problem is that they need to secure October 2025. Yeah, it's from October 2025. It's like it's it's old. October, November, December, January, February, March, April. It's over half a year. This is not a new situation. Now, something to take it take into account you want to make money in public markets. If you're not gonna be the smartest, which we're we're not gonna be like the smartest, right? We also don't have access to proprietary a lot of proprietary data. We don't have citadels, HFTs, jumps, internal tooling, but you can get edge by being hyper retardedly online. I really believe that you can be terminally online, and you that's where you can get edge, right? Smart is fastest to cheat. So we'll just be terminally online. And so one of the things you know if you're terminally online is that um mainstream media is just now starting to report that open AI is like losing to anthropic. That's the discourse, it's coming out now. Over the next couple weeks, you'll probably see a lot more of it. Anthropics winning, anthropic's winning. What you know if you're terminally online is that open AI was losing for the last four months, but as of like a month ago or three weeks ago, open AI it was losing to anthropic, but anthropic clawed is bricked, and 5.5 is in the lead again. And so it isn't toolpicking on this take. It isn't that people are using AI less. It's that people are just flip-flopping what they're you can using. The tokens are still getting spent. People are still spending the tokens. They were just spending them on Claude for a while, and now they're gonna come back and spend it on open AI for a while. And we're just gonna go back and forth. And the value and demand for tokens, I think, is just will continue to go up only. So if they can hit these ridiculous revenue numbers, is relatively unclear how that's gonna play out. But if you're terminally online, you know that open AI is the sauce again. They just do. Open AI has got the sauce again, it's come, it's come back, and I don't find myself that worried that these companies aren't gonna be able to make money. I don't know. This this isn't the the bubble pop fear to me so much. Yo, yo, yo, yo, Mr. Bubble Boy, welcome. Uh welcome to the stream, man. How are you? I'm doing great. How are you? I'm good, dude. I appreciate you coming on. Uh, congrats on the T VPN feature as well. You're on a little bit of a mediator right now, huh?

SPEAKER_01 29:18

Yes, yes. I'm doing the runs. Um, when you get a trophy, you know, you gotta milk it while you can.

SPEAKER_04 29:25

You gotta dude. What's the low? What does Bubble Boy mean? What where does that come from?

SPEAKER_01 29:30

So I've told the story a couple times, but maybe not publicly. Um, I've been kind of trading on and off since I want to say 2016, right? And I was in college at the time. Um, there was a time where I think it was Silicon Valley Bank was failing. Um, and I had like my little portfolio or whatever, and I was working uh this job, I'm not gonna say where, but it was in the financial space. And by the way, I should mention I'm a hardware engineer, electrical engineer education.

SPEAKER_04 30:03

You you have a job, like you work.

SPEAKER_01 30:06

Yes, yes, yes. Believe it or not, okay. Believe it or not, I'm overemployed. Okay, I work, I work hard, but more or less, the long story short is I like threw up at work and I was like, no, it is over, like I'm gonna lose everything. And then I made like a trade that just ended up working out amazingly well. And I told my coworkers and they were they called me bubble boy. So wait, what was the trade? Right. Oh, it it's technical, but um, it had to do with uh interest rates. So in um derivatives, there the most liquid like future on earth is this thing that used to be called euro dollar, but it's now called the secured overnight financing rate.

SPEAKER_04 30:47

Okay.

SPEAKER_01 30:48

Um, it kind of sets the interest rates for most of the world. Um, and that day, because a bank was failing, people were like, interest rates are gonna go down, right? Um, but it was the biggest move in interest rates at the beginning of the day, and then towards the end of the day, it was like double what even that, right? Whoa. So I ended up being kind of lucky, and I was like, ever since then, I was like, Yeah, this is a funny name to have, and everyone kind of gave me credit. They were like, Okay, well, you definitely called that one, right?

SPEAKER_04 31:18

Whoa, word okay, so you really understand the intricacies of how these chips work and like the tech side of the AI trade in general, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 31:30

I like to think so.

SPEAKER_04 31:31

Yeah, how many of these people, especially the finance, you know, KOLs or like Schiller guys on Twitter? Like you you tweeted this a bunch of times, there's like a hundred like a hundred people in the world that understand the the chip trade, or no one understands how computers work. Like, how how well understood relative to how many people are talking about these stocks and these names? Are like is the AI trade, is the chip trade.

SPEAKER_01 31:55

So is the question how well understood would it be on the like institutional finance side, or more so just generally, how well understood is it?

SPEAKER_04 32:04

I think generally, how well understood is it, especially by the retail trading side that's piling into these names?

SPEAKER_01 32:10

The retail, I would put it as 50-50. I think where retail really gets burnt is when they try to go into stuff that like even I don't understand quite right. Like, like when we have to start like talking to people electrical engineering to really understand the differences, um, like that's a bit too far, right? So I think I think there's a couple people, but I mean, I'll nail it, I'll name drop a rational analyst who I think is really good and called a lot of things early. Um, but I've met a rational analyst, and a rational analyst is really good in photonics. He's actually an expert in that field, right? But I don't think you know, telling a retail trader, hey guys, you need to get in on like lumenta. I mean, they would have done fine, right? But there's so many of these niche, niche companies in the supply chain. I'm just like, you cannot actually in confidence know which one's gonna win or lose. But honestly, maybe you don't need to, right? Like, maybe you don't need to pick a winner in a sector, you just just go along with the sector, right? So I don't know if that answers the question, but I think I think it depends, right? So I would say mostly retail, probably not, but there are a few people who I would say are retail, but to call them retail is a joke, you know. These are very educated, you know, talented people, right? Beautiful.

SPEAKER_04 33:29

And I want to talk about the Intel trade, obviously. We'll start there, then we'll go backwards. Um how okay, I was going through your Twitter, which by the way, I mean, I thought I tweet a lot, man. You tweet it took me like 45 minutes to get to April 10th or something, but you you kept quote, I think one of your I don't want to call it your first Intel tweet because I don't know when that actually was, but you kept referencing uh a gigable post from like February 25 where you were talking, it was like the the dancing video about you know when Intel hits $100 or something like this. Um, how like what from your work history and prior knowledge using that and whatever else you you know or studied or learned, like how were you able to identify Intel as the trade back then?

SPEAKER_01 34:12

Okay, so there's a couple of points, and I'll go through them quickly. One of them was um Intel was a turnaround story, they took on a lot of debt to expand their fabs. Um, and they basically telegraphed to the market. They said, hey, free cash flow for this year and maybe next year is not good, like it's negative, right? And what you need to understand, and what I'm learning by talking to more finance guys is that's actually all they care about. Free cash flow and margins is like the only reason I actually want to own a company. So what I saw was a distressed company, but it's investing, right? So I actually like that counterintuitively to many other people. If I see someone's actually investing in the right technology in the roadmap, again, they have to execute. But that's actually a way better use of your capital than just returning money to shareholders to do nothing with it. Um, so there's partly that, right? Secondly, um when I was um looking at Intel and really what Intel's big bet was adopting high NA. Now there's a lot of controversy of is that good or not. But basically, high in A is a, I would say, a pretty big uh game changer when it comes to like making chips, right? Yes, you're getting way better resolution, you're making smaller transistors, right? The questions on high NA were never about technology. That was never the question. Everyone knows the physics is very basic, right? High school physics, we all know this makes smaller patterns. The question was: is this profitable? Are the margins good, right? Um, so TSMC famously didn't adopt it, and they actually are just telegraphing they're not adopting it until 2030. Um, I think uh Intel's early adoption of that, and I knew somewhat of the intricacies of how hard that is to adopt that. It's not just a simple plug and play thing. That to me was like, okay, well, if there's a 50% chance Intel gets this working, we'll say F it, like 20%, right? They have a technology technological edge, but I was pretty bullish on that. Um, but now I think the Intel story, like, they've actually executed very well there, by the way. I would say um their yields on 18A are great, are are much better than they were originally, and I think 14A now is just 14A is kind of like what comes after this current generation of chips, and 14A is looking like a leapfrog of TSMC.

SPEAKER_04 36:44

So um you are obviously have a much deeper understanding of like how these chips work than I do, but at a high level, the public sentiment on Twitter is that it feels to me the public sentiment on Twitter is TSMC dominance, and it is not the case that most people think Intel is ahead the way that you do.

SPEAKER_01 37:04

Right. And I I wouldn't just say Twitter, I actually talk to like hedge funds and institutions, and they feel the exact same way. It's a very easy narrative to latch on. You know, TSMC is this big brand, Taiwan, it's it's a champion. But I think what people aren't understanding is um TSMC has a very conservative uh culture when it comes to leading the leading edge. They don't, basically, right? Um, they're very careful with how much money they spend because semiconductors are capital intensive, it's a capital intensive business. What I saw was Intel was having a strategy that said, okay, I'm actually gonna burn all this money to use that weakness against them. And I thought of it as a nice strategy and a nice strategic thing. And as far as like right now, and I think this is more of a recent thing because we could talk about uh earnings, okay. Uh like like uh node quality or like node density is one thing, but increasingly semis isn't driven by nodes at all, it's actually being driven by packaging. Um, and this is a case where I've really been hammering that TSMC is not investing at all, and they're really behind the eight ball on packaging. And this is why Intel is going to win. It's not necessarily the transistors being smaller on Intel's node, it's that they actually just have this packaging solution no one has, and it's world-class better.

SPEAKER_04 38:30

And this is a big reason why NVIDIA invested with not so, in in uh in layman's terms, for the chat, not for me, but for everybody else, for everybody else that isn't an expert on Intel packaging chip packaging, give me the the Intel packaging thesis and why that matters, how it improves margins, like what it does for the business, and what uh TSMC can't do.

SPEAKER_01 38:50

Well, think of it like why are we doing packaging for a customer? Um, if you look at like an H100, that is as big as a chip could go um on normal technology. That's as big as you can go. It's about 800 millimeters square. Okay, and we went to B200s. Well, well, what do you do? Like you can't shrink the node. Well, what do you how do you how does Jensen deliver 50% performance year over year? Uh Moore's Law doesn't work that way, you know? So what did they do? They got one die, right? 800 millimeters squared, they got another, and they start stitching them together, right? They started having little communication between them. Um, and many chip companies have been trying to do this. No one's done it quite like Nvidia, where it's a whole mega-sized chip. They would use a smaller chip. This is AMD strategy. So that's packaging. And when you think about it, you just took one chip and you're adding another, and now they look like one chip, just have more area to do stuff, right? So packaging is huge, and actually, packaging is actually the only way NVIDIA actually on their roadmap is driving performance. Now, here's the problem the way TSMC is packaging things is they're using a you know very well researched thing where you kind of put like a they call it an interposer, but you can kind of think of it as like a plate below the two dies. Intel is very different. Intel will use a little ribbon to connect them, and that sounds like a small difference, but it's a world of a difference because one, imagine if your plate cracks, imagine if any of the lines that go through the plate are messed up. Goodbye chip, start over, right? You need to rip it out and redo it. Now imagine if a ribbon is kind of not doing well. Well, that's actually an easier thing to fix. And also, the ribbon's gonna take less area, so you can actually package things denser. Um, packaging is you know, different compute dies, but also HBM, other kinds of you know, technology like people will mix, networking, I.O. photonics would actually have to be packaged because photonics would go on a different node than what compute goes on. They're different kinds of classes of technology. So, given all that, if you look at a video's roadmap, they want to go from two dyes to four, and they couldn't pull it off with Vera Rubin. Now Feynman wants to do four and wants to go to eight, and then they want to do even more HBM. So the stack of HBMs, I actually don't have a number at the top of my head, but let's just say 16 or 18 stacks. They want to go to like 24 or more, and this is just more heat, it's more stuff for things to go wrong. And Intel is really the only people who are investing in a solution for this. Rumors have come out already that Feynman will be using this Intel EMIB, EMIB is the name, by the way, for their packaging, this packaging technology um for their Feynman series of GPUs. Now, when that note was released, they said, hey, like Intel is just packaging it, um, but TSMC still gets a bit of the packaging, right? Okay, maybe that's believable, but do you think Jensen put bought 5% of that company for no reason? You think if he's using that technology on Feynman, he's not like looking at it for the real thing, um, like making it integral to their manufacturing? So that's really where I think now the Intel thesis is like, yes, the yields are good on 18A, 14A looks really good so far, but packaging is where like this is screaming at you in the face. This is obvious. But I don't know how that's it in other words, right? Like, this is as obvious as it gets on the packaging side.

SPEAKER_04 42:38

Dude, I appreciate you coming on. I'm a fan of yours because I like I think there's a lot of you on Twitter that's just like these anon PFPs that are super deep on a sector, on a trade idea, on a concept. You get autistic about it, you hyper understand it, and you publicly just like have alpha, like reading, you know, uh just you're kind of just like a guy, a really smart guy, but you're a guy that's on Twitter, you respond to people, you're you you you can communicate with people, they can get in contact with you, you post your thoughts publicly, and then you bink a monster. And I think it's inspiring for a lot of people that are on this app trying to figure out how to trade, trying to figure out how to navigate markets that like it can be done, and there are people that aren't, you know, citadel that are doing it publicly with a thesis that's logical, that's linear, that makes sense, and then putting the the bow on top. So, dude, congratulations on the trade.

SPEAKER_01 43:27

Thank you, and thank you so much.

SPEAKER_04 43:29

Thank you for coming on, man. Maybe we could do a part two at some point.

SPEAKER_01 43:32

Definitely, man. Thank you for your time. It was great fun.

SPEAKER_04 43:34

Hell yeah, boy, you're the man, dude. Anything you want to show before you leave? Anything you want to shout out, chill, mention, whatever.

SPEAKER_01 43:40

I gotta mention my boys um at through. Since you're uh since you're you're you're big in crypto.

SPEAKER_04 43:45

Hell yeah.

SPEAKER_01 43:46

I want to mention my friends at through. You can see it on my profile. My bad. So mention my friends over there.

SPEAKER_04 43:51

Shout out Robert Chang, baby.

SPEAKER_01 43:53

Yeah, let's go.

SPEAKER_04 43:54

Hell yeah. All right. All right, brother. Have a good one. Peace. I got rocks. I I really Enjoyed that man. What'd you think? Bubba interview. This is these are the kind of guys that uh get missed in a lot of these big finance podcasts and like shows that I'm the most excited about them. I'm the most excited about the like random Anon that just is like a guy. I mean, he's like a obviously a really smart guy, but he's not, you know, top engineer at Jane Street. And he's just like a guy, gets autistic about an idea, understands it super deeply, finds a opportunity, crushes it, slow slams size behind it, and then crushes it, and then is super right in public. It's just like to me, that is the storyline of the stream. Like, this is what I am interested in. This is what I care about. And I think we could just, I don't know, like I think you could be Bubble Boy. You could be Bubble Boy. Like, I could be Bubble Boy, you could hit that trade. It's possible for you to do it. Folks, tomorrow, Bubble Boy today, stream over. I love y'all. Thank you so much for bomb. Thank y'all so much for supporting. I will catch you when I get to a sea when I see you. If you're new here, I'm live every day at 3 40 p.m. EST. 3 40 p.m. EST. It's 3 30, but it's really 3 40. More like 3 45. I do the same thing we do today that we do every single day. It's a banger, it's a movie. We're getting better. We're getting bigger. We're getting stronger. We're getting better. I love you. I appreciate you. I'm out. Peace.