Why TAO is Pumping, TAO Founder Interview, Ceasefire News, How The Iran War Will End - Threadguy: March 24th, 2026

Timestamps:

00:54 - why tao is pumping
03:46 - full interview with the co founder of tao
1:03:18 - ceasefire news???
1:08:21 - how the iran war will end
1:11:46 - playing kahoot with my chat

Transcript

SPEAKER_02 0:04

What's up, man? Welcome back to the stream. Look, guys, I'm gonna be honest. They have a lot to talk about today. I have 17 minutes to get my shit together because we have a towel, uh we have a guest coming on that I have to like focus for. Guys, I think we're just coming to a head on the war stuff where something is going to clash. And I think Friday is kind of our day where these troops are getting there and they are either escalating. Trump's gonna taco for real, or Trump's gonna taco when it's not gonna work. And we're gonna get some fucking volatility. That's what we're gonna get. We're gonna get some fucking volatility, is what we're gonna get, I think. And so I think we gotta get through the next couple three, four days here. Fuck it, we're trading crypto until then. And the whole world is just on hold, man. So we're gonna get a VIX 40 day. We're gonna get a VIX 100% or in a day. It's coming, I can feel it. So I guess to just lock it and get ready for this interview. I guys, I haven't seen when what is this? Like, what's going on here with Jason Kyle Canis? What is he doing exactly? I uh when is the last time you've seen this? I don't even know when I've seen it. What is I don't exactly understand what the what the game plan is here. He obviously has a lot.

SPEAKER_00 1:12

There's something there that could compound to you know a$500 billion market cap for you know um tau, which would be roughly, you know, if it's trading at two or three billion, let's put it at 2.5 billion, it's a 200x from here. That's my base case is I think we could be sitting here and tau in five to ten years could go 200x. Now you say, like, well, how does J Cal even come up with that number? Just historically, I've seen things of value when I see.

SPEAKER_02 1:49

Oh, that was good closure. How does J Cal come up with that number? He says, Well, historically, look, you never want to be the guy. This is just you never want to be the guy that's responsible for the thing going on. You don't want to be the guy ever. You don't want to be it. You just you don't want to be the guy, but somebody is always the guy. And Jason Calicanders has decided he's gonna be the guy for Tao. It was good enough for me. It was good enough for me. It was good enough for me. It was good enough for me. That's enough for me. The last time, the last person that was the guy, it was good enough for me. The last time there was a guy, um it was Naval. It was Naval with Zcash, and then it was Mert. It was Mert with Zcash, and they went honestly. Uh Zcash doesn't happen without Mert. The the way that it it curved. I mean, look at this chart real quick, just for scale of how ridiculous. By the way, I still really like Zcash. I think Zcash is a great coin. Look at this, this, this fractal here. Just for like context of how ridiculous this pump was. We can go like right where it started a little, take it down a little bit to Top Wick. This thing pumped 1300% on honestly infinite size. I mean, it pumped 1300%. The thing about crypto that's so unique from any other asset class is outside of Bitcoin, what's the market cap of crypto? A couple, a couple, a couple Ts, one, a couple trillion. I don't even know, two, one and a half, three, I don't even know, a couple trillion dollars that's basically decided, like the narrative is driven by like a couple hundred people, really. Because when you don't have earnings reports and all these fundamentals and all these revenue to fall back on, the whole thing just becomes a narrative game. You know, like you know, I don't know, you know how it goes with crypto. It just like when things get moment, it's just pure momentum emetics. And so when things like really get going, they get going. Um, all right, let's get it. One second, sir. Let me get you full cam. And let me just adjust you. And boom! Mr. Comps, welcome to the stream, man. How are you?

SPEAKER_05 4:02

I'm very well, nice to nice to have you here.

SPEAKER_02 4:04

Yeah, dude, I appreciate you jumping on on like uh one second notice. I know you're in a little bit of a weird time zone, but uh dude, my whole feed is talking about tau. I'm streaming, everyone's like, what you know, what is tau? Please bring somebody on. And so I I you know I think we got the best person we could to come on and talk about it on no notice. So I appreciate you being here. Why why don't you start? Give us a quick intro, who you are, what you do. Give me give me like a little bit of lore to set the stage.

SPEAKER_05 4:31

Um well, I was the first developer to work on BitTensor. Um, I helped write the write paper. Uh I spent many years of my life building BitTensor. I've been building it since 2015, um, which is a really long time. 2015, really? Yeah, yeah, actually, like straight out of university. Um, and uh I had the idea of the neural internet and you know how to mine intelligence way back then, because um I was actually, you know, I was doing my degree in computer science and mathematics, uh studying artificial intelligence. This was before AI was a thing. Okay. Like it was it was just the beginnings of deep learning.

SPEAKER_02 5:14

And why were you doing this? Like, how did you even how did that come across your desk?

SPEAKER_05 5:19

Um, well, it's it's kind of interesting story. Um, I I graduated, I was really interested in something called neuromorphic computing. Okay. Um, neuromorphic computing is it's uh as the name sounds, like the brain, neuromorphic. Um, and I ended up working for this absolute genius named Alex Nugent, who um started the DARPA synapse program. It's a program out of DARPA where they were trying to build the brain chip. Uh you guys have heard of extrapic, right? Like extropics. Okay, yeah, it's familiar, but I couldn't tell you what it is. Yeah, yeah. Well, he's like trying to make a thermodynamic computer, um, a computer that you just compute with electricity. Whoa. Um and uh and the idea is that like the you know, modern machines, the CPU, there's this bottleneck between uh where we store information and where we compute on it. So when you want to do, let's say, uh a multiplication on your computer, you have to take information out of memory, put it into the into the CPU, and then do a multiplication and put it back.

SPEAKER_02 6:18

And that's not it's Beth, it's Beth, Jesus.

SPEAKER_05 6:21

Beth. Okay, yeah, I know Beth.

SPEAKER_02 6:23

Hell yeah. Okay, okay, okay. I thought it was familiar.

SPEAKER_05 6:26

That this is his. I'm basically, you know, pumping Beth's company right now. Cool. Um, it's really an idea. And basically, the idea is that like this is the way the computers work right now, and they're very slow because that's not natural. It's actually completely unnatural for there to be a separation between the memory, the state, and the thing that operates in the state, and the brain is the best example of that, right? You your neurons actually encode um the like the structure of the neurons, like the connectivity of your neurons is how you compute, and it's also where this the state of the neural network is at the same time. And so when you're like, let's say, thinking, all of your neurons are firing at the speed at which neurons fire, which is very fast, and all multiple trillions of them can fire at the same time, although that would probably kill you. Um, but there's no there's no separation. So those von name bottleneck, and basically I was working on that back in 2015, so it's really interesting to see extropic blow up because it's like actually a very old idea um uh to build these neuromorphic chips. And in fact, Alan Turing, he he was the first to propose this back in the 19 like 1940s. He he envisioned this computer that was um you know a neural computer where there was neurons and and all these things, and he he was one of the first to think of in this direction of making computers like the brain for the purpose of artificial intelligence. I was working on that after my graduate, after I graduated because um, you know, it was pretty obvious that artificial intelligence was was constrained, the bottleneck was compute, and so if we could make things faster, and like that's what NVIDIA does, right? Like that's why NVIDIA is with so much money, because they can make it faster and and they're the fastest in the world, and and they have these you know$200,000 machines, GPUs, that that people pay a hell of a lot of money for just to get speed. Because if you can run more iterations, you can go faster, right? You can try more things. And anyway, so I was working for this guy, and he was a he was a Bitcoiner, okay. Um, he was a really interesting genius guy that worked with DARPA and and made this the Synapse program to build these chips and funded IBM and funded Intel and funded Qualcomm to build this. And he basically saw them build it and was so you know depressed by their speed at developing this chip that he went to start his own company and hired me as his first engineer. That's how I got into Bitcoin because he was this cypherpunk with like you know 10,000 Bitcoin buried in his backyard kind of guy, and he paid me and uh yeah, really, really awesome guy. And he he taught me about um like real Bitcoin, you know, not like uh pumping. He taught me about real Bitcoin. What is this about? Like, you know, uh what are the ideals behind it? And as a consequence, I got involved with crypto and I was a machine learning engineer. Um and I was fascinated by you know how how is it possible that that we were able to create the supercomputer um in space in cyberspace that was so powerful. Um, and you know, I was there was studying about how to compute with electricity, and there I was watching this this economic experiment, this computational network that is run by a form of electricity. Basically, that form of electricity is money, it's a mining network. Um I put two and two together, and I was like, okay, we can we can compute with money. Um we can compute electricity, an abstract form of electricity is money, and here's this example in in in playing out in real time in front of us, this supercomputer that is you know a gargantuan and larger than uh I think that the the idea is that Bitcoin is so big that that even governments can't outcompete it in terms of hashing, right? So, how did it achieve such an aim that that like even the United States government can't attack it? Like there's not that many things that can say that, right? Mo everything's underneath the table, right? Like OpenAI and Anthropic, they're all funded by the American military. Like there's very few companies. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. That are like, I'm gonna be a complete, I'm gonna be at the nation state level of computing. Um and uh and so I was like, wow, uh okay, we can do computational, uh, we can do computation with electricity, we can do it with money. What exactly is that principle that allowed Bitcoin to be so fucking efficient that like there's there's these super geniuses out there. Uh like I've I've met I've met the um the guy from um uh ants, the guy who made Antminer. He's this Chinese guy.

SPEAKER_03 11:00

I don't know what that is.

SPEAKER_05 11:01

Is that am I gonna get flame for this? Uh yeah, yeah. Well, like this is like old school crypto, right? Like it's not all the know about this, but there's like the hash wars that happened, and and you know, it it attracted these super geniuses that basically won in the hashing game, right? And uh they won by being, you know, you they didn't have PhDs, they they they were not qualified for the job of being the the largest compute providers. So how do they win that work? How do they win? Gosh, that's I I think about this a lot. Like, how how do you win in a game that is perfectly competitive, right? You're a you're a superhuman player. Perfectly competitive. You're like a superhuman player. You're you're you're a psychopath. I don't know. You're you're like run Cristiano Ronaldo of mining Bitcoin. Like that, what is though?

SPEAKER_02 11:54

Like what like Ronaldo's like 6'4, 40 inch vertical. Like, what is your your intangible aesthetically?

SPEAKER_05 12:01

You can exactly it's tangible. You can look at Cristiano Ronaldo and be like, well, handsome. Well, or yeah, I meant soccer skills, but that works too. Soccer skills, you know, physical, but but someone uh you know like this guy who who who made these the the you know that took over you know bitcoin and and in many cases, many people that have taken over over bit tensor in in similar fashions, is like they're just car uh hard capitalists, like they know how to procure and and organize matter really, really well. Yeah, um yeah, and and and apply it to to and and so, anyways, like so Bitcoin is run by all of these people. Like I you may know people that mine Bitcoin or at least used to when it was a hobby, but now it's this industrial process, like it it you know, they seek out um access to um latent energy reserves in Paraguay, uh and you know, that because there's because you're you're capable of of of moving across this border, you to get electricity price slightly cheaper, you know, you go over here, and and and so like that's all enabled by the permissionlessness and the global 24 hours, 24-7 hyper competitive monetary that is Bitcoin. Okay, and we were like, hey, let's take that to everything, and that's basically BitTensor.

SPEAKER_02 13:24

Okay, so then first of all, that was incredible. I I've never heard you talk, so I don't know. I just like I saw you tweet, so and I was like, fuck it, let's get this guy on. I I never really heard you like speak, so that was incredible. Can you let's start here and then we'll like work backwards? Is can you give me the fifth grader explanation of what is bit tensor and why is it so special, and then we could dive into like the the the nitty-gritty.

SPEAKER_03 13:52

Cool, yes. I know, I know, I know.

SPEAKER_02 13:55

Sorry, I know, I know, I know, I know.

SPEAKER_05 13:57

Like I'm five and I'm like, oh dude.

SPEAKER_02 13:59

I don't know about when I'm like 24 and like a little bit slow. How about that?

SPEAKER_05 14:03

I'll just explain it to like your audience, I suppose. Um I'll try to explain it in a different way that I've explained it, you know, using like modern uh terminology. Like you're you you're following what's happening with like um Carpathy's auto research, right?

SPEAKER_02 14:17

Okay, what's happening like vaguely high level? You could break it down if you wanted to first.

SPEAKER_05 14:23

Yeah, okay. So, like basically machine intelligence, like AI, used to be really complex. It used to be that people would sit down and they would try to write down the rules of like let's say chess, okay. And and then they just gave up on that idea. And there's a famous essay called The Bitter Lesson, where they're like, let's just row compute at it, which means let's just try everything, just force fucking figure it out. Yeah, whenever we find something that kind of works, we just do that a little bit more, okay. And you know, that's why the the you know open AI and Tropic and and and Elon Musk are spending billions of dollars on compute so they can run more experimentation, but like all of AI is basically just uh that loop. It's just try, did it work? Adapt ourselves, try, did it work, adapt ourselves and do that a hundred trillion times per second, and eventually, you know, you create you. That's like the fundamental learning process of nature and AI. Um, so okay, why is that a relevant starting place? Because you know, what do we see when you when you start doing that process, you recognize that the core problem is just defining the thing against which you you use to validate performance. So you say, like, okay, hey, like we did a bunch of things. How good were we? That's the validation, right? Yeah, and then we adapt. Right. So then we we push more into the ways that were good, right? So so bit tensor is basically that process, okay. Do a bunch of stuff, validate it, and then feed the the thing that did well more money. So instead of using the computational substrate, which is in in in artificial intelligence, like uh say like genetic algorithms, you would mutate the the genetic algorithms that the genetic codes that are you know better at solving your problem, we would give them more money. And that's bit tensor is basically a machine for creating this this like cycle of things try to solve the problem, we evaluate it, and then we pay them, and then and we just run this loop. And that like that's what Bitcoin is. Bitcoin is basically people try to mine Bitcoin, and if they can mine it faster, they get paid money. Okay, so we took that idea and we've abstracted it. Okay, like what if we want to do that for everything? What if we want to build like uh a mining network for you know um storing files, producing procuring compute, but also like training machine learning models, and this is where it gets interesting because those last two have been done in in crypto, right? Like you golem, file coin, okay, right, uh uh exec, um, ionet, they're all basically the i the same idea, right? Like, let's build mining for GPUs, let's build mining for storage, okay? But they only do one thing, they only do one thing. Yeah, and and so because we focused on that basically that loop, that recursive loop of um like incentive loop, you could call it, or or like adaptation loop that's in AI. We basically abstracted that the monetary adaptation loop, and we said, hey, go nuts. People can let's go build a bunch of these things. Um, we have this abstract version of it, so we can build all those things at once. And like I we made we made enemies with the render community because I tweeted randomly. I was just like, renders render's just a subna on BitTensor. Like, um, you know, if file point's just a subna on BitTensor, and we we made a lot of enemies because because, but it was true, right? It's actually true that all of those things are just instances of the same thing, which is a monetary feedback loop where you have people do things, you measure their performance and you pay them money. And you you can you can design that game in a whole bunch of different ways, right? We tried to build a framework for representing them based on on basically um machine machine learning, like we use basically um weight matrixes and softmax and all these things, but it doesn't really matter. The point is that we built this abstract tooling called Humaconsensus that allows us to do that in a trustless manner, right? So, how do we build a mining network for anything in an abstract sense that that can be trustworthy? So we can do it a distribution, and that's really difficult because Bitcoin's very easy actually. Bitcoin is um the the transaction is either cryptographically um uh verifiable or not, uh-huh. Right. So the the truth is it's just one or two, right? Zero, one like the outcome. Um, but when you when you get into like let's build a mining network for you know, like what one of the subnet that I'm building right now is like, how do you how do you make it so that all those really smart people that are mining Bitcoin are actually going to go out there and try to train machine learning models? And the the performance of machine learning models is actually really, really difficult to measure. It takes a lot of time and there's a lot of randomness and in the evaluation of a machine learning model, but this is why we have benchmarks, and in AI, we have benchmarks, but there's those benchmarks are standard, right? Um, we so we can basically take a benchmark and turn that into an incentive mechanism and have people train machine learning models that are good at the benchmark. Um and and so so BitTensor is basically that process at the core level. That's what a subnet is. A subnet is this monetary feedback loop that we can apply to different things. And so the examples on BitTensor are like let's apply it to training machine learning models across the web, um, where hey, you run a machine a node, and we're gonna measure how many flops of training you've done. That was what Templar did.

SPEAKER_02 20:26

Okay, okay, okay, okay, okay. Following me on kind of No, I know I please keep going, then I'll I'll try to like re-bring it. Yeah, keep going. Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_05 20:34

Um, so but but we can also do like, let's say, measure the speed at which someone can inference a machine learning model. Like that's very valuable for for like when you talk to open router or or or shoots, which is the subnet, um, or like OpenAI, it is a really difficult problem of like uh how do you do that really fast? How do you take an input and you give an output really quickly? And it's called inferencing. So we can we can say, hey, we'll pay you for the speed at which we can inference or like the bandwidth that you can inference, and then we can turn that into a product because now we have the people out there not just going to secure the network in Bitcoin, which is useless, right? In some sense, it's useless. Um, but we can have you doing this actual monetary problem of why is it useless? Why is big why is Bitcoin mining useless? Yeah, well, it doesn't produce anything, it's not useless. I'm gonna get in the shit with the talk. I wanted the clip.

SPEAKER_02 21:23

I mean, you just gave me the God intro. I had to follow up.

SPEAKER_05 21:26

Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's not useless because obviously it secures the Bitcoin network, right? So it's like it has infinite values, perhaps, but there are there are other things in in life that have more tangible value, like storing files. Like, how many files can you store? And these are kind of like not very interesting ones in some sense, but like they get more interesting when you apply this idea of um feedback loops to things that are much more abstract. So, example, don't provide me compute because that's obvious, and then basically anybody can provide. But I want you to develop software that works well against a well-defined benchmark, right? Like I and the example of that was ridges or platform on BitTensor, which they basically build coding agents. And those coding agents are evaluated based on how well they can solve coding problems. And so we can not only mine like raw commodities like GPU speed or like how many flops you can provide, but we can also mine, build taking this primitive and apply it to actual software development. Now, this is where I started from auto research. I said, hey, this is the target of the day, Carpathy, genius. You apply to auto research. And we then just loop on that. And eventually you have this like process of of annealing the software towards a better and better version of itself. And so we basically do that for all these problems. Okay. Um, one of them is is is coding challenges, and and that's that's also basically just the mining of software. Um, so that will we just finish the last part? So that's that's like the subnet level. Okay, and then bitten is a market of those subnets. And yeah, okay, maybe you want to.

SPEAKER_02 23:17

So okay, okay. So so um the way my brand works usually is I like bring it all in for like three days, and then at the end I spit out a finished product. But kind of how I'm understanding BitTensor right now is it's basically like the like the like Tau emissions are like a reward mechanism of such to incentivize improvement or success across like defined metrics. So you would say, like, I want this thing to be done very well, or like this parameter to be met, and you're like rewarding a subnet, I believe, as I understand, to like create and manifest said thing into the world well. And the better you do, the more emissions you're receiving. Like, is that correct? So you just have like you know, 128 subnets that are all being incentivized with monetary tau to like build X, Y, Z, A, B, C.

SPEAKER_05 24:08

More or less. Like, okay, okay. So let's go through like the stages of Bit Tensor, so people can understand cool cool um through its history because it actually has changed a lot, right? But we we did we didn't do a pre-mine, right? So, and and and that was really good because it gives a lot of time to develop this technology. So, like back in 2021, when we launched, there was just one subnet on Bit Tensor. Wow, and it was broke, and it didn't work very well, and it didn't produce anything, and we didn't really understand the start, we didn't really understand what we were dealing with. Um, and and it failed and it got hacked.

SPEAKER_02 24:40

And so, what was it? And and how did they why did they create subnet number one?

SPEAKER_05 24:43

Like what we created it. Okay, we created it. We created and what basically the original version of subnet one um was uh we we it's actually quite brilliant, and today maybe we could do it properly back then far far out of far out, but basically it's it's a cool idea. Basically, the the miners in the network produced what's called an embedding, which is basically just a tensor. A tensor is a long list of numbers that represent um text or basically anything, but in this case text in a numerical form, okay, where that numerical form is basically the the at the in the center of a neural network, like where you put text in, you get text out, but in the center it's all numeric, and that's called an embedding. Those the basically it passes embeddings through the layers of network. And so we we said, Hey, let's build a mining network, let's build a Bitcoin mining network for information theoretic value, which is the isn't is a mouthful. Basically, how valuable is the vector that you can produce if we were trying to solve problems in in language, okay. And this was like before this is before Chat GPT. This is like uh for the AI people in the crowd, like this is like Bert and like Roberta, okay. Like old school transformer stuff, and and and so it turns out that like that's possible to do, um, but we were just really not prepared to do it properly. So we switched to something else, we built another network that was based on you would you query the miners, um, and they would answer, and then we would we would basically use another machine learning model to evaluate how good the answers were from the models.

SPEAKER_02 26:26

Can I ask you a quick intermission? Is like um what benefit would subnet number one being good contribute to bit tensor?

SPEAKER_05 26:38

Yeah, the top layer you know if I were doing the the industry of AI moves so fast, yeah, right. And one of the benefits is that because we have this abstracted layer, we didn't build into the substrate of the chain exactly what we were doing, we just could then switch out to another thing. Thank god, because if we built it in rust and substrate, we would have been fucked because yeah, yeah, you can't fast. So at the at the time we were working on on basically these embeddings. Now, if I were to do it now, yeah, I would frame it as um doing basically like context embeddings, um, or like basically take it's still it's still actually a field right now that's useful. Like if you look at Pine Cone and other other industries, like you open AI serves embeddings, right? If you if you want to like uh if you want to take your your your whole code base and then put it inside of what's called an embedding database, which you can then like search really quickly with with LLMs, you embed the data. And and that means you send the data and then you get these embeddings, and these embeddings they they encode like dense information about what was given to you, but it's also a compression. It's basically a numerical compression. Okay, so if I were to take that subnet and rebuild it, which I'm not doing, so I guess I wouldn't, I would still train it to be producing embeddings very quickly and incredibly dense in information because that would be valuable to things like pine cone if you're making embedding data. The way that bit bit tensor subnets work is that basically, in order to in order to get access, gain access to these subnets, you you need to have a fair amount of stake in them, right? And so that's what creates the economic game. So, like the token represents access in some sense, in some way. The people that have the token are the people that can gatekeep the network and therefore they can monetize it. And so if you if you um were to try to build a subnet around that, which maybe somebody will do, you would then build like a website and an API service for people to clear that and try to make money. And so now that subnet would have its own token that is paired with a Uniswap pool, Tau. Got it, and and that's what creates the demand side for Tau, basically. It's like um a flywheel. Got it.

SPEAKER_02 28:50

Got it. Um and so the main benefit of um the success of subnets is paired with tau, more demand on tau price, more value to compete for future admissions. And so every like every subnet there's 128. Is that true? I make that up.

SPEAKER_05 29:13

There's 128.

SPEAKER_02 29:14

Okay. Every subnet like exists in a silo and is doing its own thing, completely unrelated to what anyone else is doing by default, and everyone is basically commit uh competing for, in theory, increasingly valuable tau emissions. Yes, and okay, and so the the Is there any like pairing process where everyone's contributing to like bit tensor, the like top hub, or is it strictly like a financial faucet?

SPEAKER_05 29:40

The this like integration aspect is really interesting. We didn't build the mechanism to require integration, so like I build this embedding thing, like does it help this guy? Yeah, it it seems to be epiphenomenal that people, as in like it's a consequence of the the system itself, like uh the ecology of BitTensor, that they work together. So, like everyone builds off shoots because shoots provides a really good service for both producing mechanisms, in the sense that like if somebody's uh somebody solved this really hard problem of doing verification of this thing, I can now use that as a as a subunit for my thing that does verification of something at a higher level. And and and then also he's my friend because he's also you know backed by tau and we're in the same ecosystem. So, you know, we're all bedfellows here, and so like that tends to that tends to to work out in practice, but there's no actual mechanism in Bit Tensor that enforces that. So we we we had you know one subnet, then we had two subnets, then we had three subnets, they were all built by the foundation. Then we opened it up so other people could build the foundation, the subnets, and then we tried to basically manage it with like an oligarchy and people voting, and this didn't work. And we always knew it wasn't gonna work. And in about two months into doing that, we were like, let's switch to D Tau. Okay, and dynamic tau was basically the idea that what we could do is build an actual market for the tokens and use market dynamics. Like basically, people are gonna buy the subnets that make sense, make economic sense, and they're not gonna buy the subnets that don't make economic sense, and and they're gonna buy the subnets that are aligned with the bit tensor's future because they hold tau and they have to buy it with tau and things like this. And and so we built, we took all the subnets, we gave them a token, and then we paired them with tau. And then we we have a mechanism basically to measure how much tau is going in or out in and out of the pool, and that incentivizes the subnet not only to you know get more buy pressure, but also ultimately to constrain tau. So so we're minting 7200 tau per day, but it's all being put into the subnets that are the most constraining of tau. So like if your subnet can't it can't keep it together, it's just leaking tau, you know, ultimately you don't get any more emission. And so we we have this sort of like structure in BitTensor where the the system itself directs the emission of of the inflation of tau itself to the places where they can constrain it, where they can keep it locked in the pools.

SPEAKER_02 32:05

Got it. And so what happens? Like, we're still pretty early in the we're like a third of the way through emissions less, um, of like where are we third? Uh like 11 million cool. So we're just we're just just over half. What happens at the end? What happens at 20? 20 to half when we get close to 21. Like, how is the network of tau evolve when we basically chase the the final form of of emissions?

SPEAKER_05 32:35

Yeah, it's a good question. And and it's it's a it's a similar question about Bitcoin.

SPEAKER_02 32:39

Like, so how does Bitcoin I was gonna ask you that one next, honestly? What do you yeah?

SPEAKER_05 32:43

Yeah, I I have always believed that like you're building basically a nation state with a cryptocurrency. And the the like the pump and dump schemes don't make any sense for crypto because they don't have any time. Like, this is why you shouldn't sell out to VCs huge supplies. This is why you shouldn't go and try to get market makers, this is why you don't need to get on exchanges, because you you should be in this for the long game because it's gonna take time to develop the ecosystem, to develop the mechanisms, to develop like the liquidity, to develop the miners. Like these things basically are organic and they and they need they they need to grow. And so, like Bitcoin, I'll answer that second question first. It's like so Bitcoin's idea is like, hey, after 104 years, that's how long they're thinking, right? This technology, which we made, we're pretty sure we made perfectly, is going to be uh foundational to the the world economy. Yes, and it's going maintaining control over it plus transaction fees, and I actually think that the control over it is actually going to be more important than the transaction fees in the future of Bitcoin, um, will be worth a lot of money enough to sustain it past the emission schedule. So the idea is that basically Bitcoin's not even there yet. We're not Bitcoin is just being birthed, like it's it's only it's like 15 years into being birthed. Really, it needs it's it's good, it's only really truly galloping as it is after 104 years or something like that. It's kind of the same thing with with with Bit Tensor. Obviously, we want to go a bit faster. The first question is with tau. So, like once tau emission goes to zero, the subnets should be incubated because that's not going to happen for 50 years, 60 years, right? Like a long time, um, maybe 104 years as well. Um, so it's it's going to at that point the subnets are have functioning markets, they're fully paired with tau, right? Like it's the it's the United States dollar of these crypto projects, right? So everyone is the network center, everyone's largest liquidity pools are with tau. And so like basically tau survives. But the question is, okay, what happens with the subnet tokens? Because they also have 21 million, and so and but they need to pay their miners. Um, and and like the idea is that like if you get it to that point, if you get it to that point, which is it, which is not very many are gonna get to that point, um, and but it's like after decades or not even decades, really. I could see this happening with some some some subnets already, potentially it will happen in much more the next 10 years. Is you start to actually not need the subsidy, but you pay the miners directly in the token because people like right now they're on a subsidy. Yep, is it like we're printing to pay just keep them alive? But eventually, like the system is is mature and in the same way that Bitcoin is mature, and and you pay them in the token to continue doing what they're doing. So people are people that want to access need to pay, right? And so there's no subsidy anymore, and like that's that's basically how the you know how I see Bitcoin working and and also how I think Bit Tensor will work as well.

SPEAKER_02 35:48

You're I mean you're a full-flown, uh, full-fledged Bitcoin maxi as well, huh? I love that. Um yeah, like I love that. How can you how can you not?

SPEAKER_05 35:58

How can you not? It's so disrespectful. I like honestly, I like it's I don't know, maybe I just like raised differently, but it's it's like walking into your grandfather's house and fucking clocking him in the face or something and being like, I'm faster than you, grandpa. You know what I mean? It's like, yeah, yeah, you piece of shit, like you loser. I'm I'm World War II for you, you know what I mean? Like, and and uh and I hold the wisdom of the whole the whole industry, and not only that, but like if Ethereum is Ethereum can be captured, Ethereum has a founder, you know, he's a guy, he's got ideas, you know, he he's um uh you know, like they can they can take him out, and and but they'll never take out Bitcoin. It was built to be immutable, and and and as a consequence, and I think people take this for granted, governments are just forced to deal with it. There were experiments with Bitcoin style things, right? It's like um uh was it die money or be money and and bit gold, right? They were just destroyed because they were centralized. And and that was what governments usually did with people to try to create currencies. But Bitcoin by its nature, and because it's this massive shield, and it had it's it is it is you know impenetrable, it is impossible to take out without just mining it and overtaking it. Um it's it's opened up the space for us to to explore and work with the the power of money, like the the language of money. Basically, we were no one was ever in history allowed to actually write with money, except for like the Medici's and the and and the bankers, right? Like now, if you can just be an individual and you can use this language that's like a coding language of money, yeah. And like and and thank god for Bitcoin. So, and if Bitcoin goes, you know, they're coming for you. So why would I want to be better than Bitcoin? That's retarded, and it's also kind of like we're obviously building on the on the on the top of it in the same way that that I made an analogy in my post. It's like Telegram doesn't say fuck you TCP, like they use TCP, like they're built on TCP, it makes no sense. And and so I I've always found that like it's really embarrassing when people have come out and they like they love that kind of tweet, you know, like uh ETH is bigger than Bitcoin, and I'm like you know, humble yourself a little bit.

SPEAKER_02 38:24

Okay, wait, wait, wait. I I had like four things I was gonna ask you, but you kind of like throw me no choice at this last question. Here is like I mean, Jason Calicanis is like on Twitter talking about BTC or Tau over BTC, which has to be a weird feeling because on one hand, it's like probably everything you ever wanted is all these eyeballs and attention and capital on top of BitTensor. But on the other hand, based off what you just said, he walked into his house and like punched your grandpa.

SPEAKER_05 38:53

Yeah, I mean that's why I responded. Um, and uh, but you know, like it's an open network, it's permission because you you can you can make it you can make it your own. It's not just about the thing. And so hey, more power to you. That's what you think, but like you know, it just creates drama. And I think that like he's doing that on purpose. You know, he's he's a he's a guy like that likes attention, and and that's a great way to get attention, and um but it's not what I believe. Uh and I think that my my uh my opinion matters more than his, probably at the end of the day.

SPEAKER_02 39:29

That was good. Um okay, this might be I I might have just like missed this, but can you explain what makes BitTensor inherently like AI and artificial intelligence adjacent? Because at least how I would understand BitTensor in layman terms, it's like you could utilize emissions to incentivize anything per se, right? Like the subnets could essentially I don't I don't know exactly how it works, but I I would imagine like the way you explained it, it could be anything. Why is it AI, you know, decentralized AI? What is the AI tie-in to BitTensor?

SPEAKER_05 40:02

Yeah, I mean, I've always had the problem with this because it's it's it's it was like, oh, is it is it crypto applied to AI? Or is it AI applied to crypto? Or you know, are they actually just kind of one and the same thing? Uh and I like to sit in that space because you know the the the truth is that um basically we took ideas from artificial intelligence, like the structure of these like feedback loops and like kind of think about it like a machine learning engineer. And then we took the ideas of crypto and we basically put them in, right? So and this new thing in the center is is neither crypto nor AI because it's it's it's monetary computing, you could say, or like incentive to computing. And um, but but okay, so so then in the technology is AI crypto and it's crypto AI. Uh it it doesn't actually like AI itself um is just a bunch of tools, but it's applies to everything, right? So you use AI to do robotics and and farming and and language and statistics and everything and computer science and and business, you know, you you you you apply this tool to all things, and like are in the same way that you can apply, and basically, when you can apply, you can a reason you can apply it is because it's like abstract, really powerful tooling for solving problems. And so we built this abstract, really powerful tooling for solving problems that's like AI, it has very similar artificial intelligence qualities, and therefore we can apply it to all these things, including AI, because why it's the hottest thing in tech right now, and it's also the fastest moving thing. So, obviously, we're gonna apply it to AI because there's so much demand for commodities and things like inference, but then take it to everything else. Crypto invented for the first time right in human history, the ability to write with money, um, and to build with to build AI systems with money, and so therefore, obviously, crypto is is part part and parcel of what we built, and and but yeah, it's neither it's ne it's neither.

SPEAKER_02 42:02

I was honestly a beautiful answer. I I guess like a follow-up on this is the way you see it, you know, I know it's open network, but if bit tensor played out exactly how you could imagine it in your grand vision, like what what does that look like? Like what a value would be created for BitTensor that you would see as like a success case. Well, I don't know that's a brutal question, but I just like what direction do you want this thing to head?

SPEAKER_05 42:36

We're beginning to see in like the the beginnings of say like subness on BitTensor, they're like fully self-contained functioning economic systems, right? So you can bring compute, you can you can you can provide in this permission permissionless market and you can make a little bit of an edge with the token, and and that makes sense, and that's exciting, right? So that like we can have these permissionless markets for all sorts of different things, which is which is valuable and lowers the price, and that's cool. But like that's not the that's not really that compelling. Like like the finance angle and like just oh, let's make things cheaper and more efficient. We spend a lot of time doing that, obviously, because you know it doesn't it doesn't matter if you you have this grand vision, if it doesn't work, right? So it works, right? Like people, thousands, millions of people use BitTensors inference and and compute and things like this, and like that's fantastic. And I'm really happy that we can provide that. But but there's another angle to this too, which is that we we're not just trying to be fast and efficient, we're not just trying to be Bitcoin mining applied to things for the good of Bitcoin mining. We also believe that that like when you build systems like this, when you build, say, like a neutral technology like Bitcoin, that many people can hold and own and contribute to and build on top of and see transparently what is built, it's built of and and just. And actually critique it for its structure in in and out, in the way that you can do it through centralized technologies. Like that is the bosom that we should be developing artificial intelligence in. Like that is the womb for proper aligned AI. Not in a centralized lab that you can't tell who owns it or what they're and like you can never work for it. And you're always just going to be suckling off the teeth of this AI Elysium Borg thing, right? That we don't know if it's like Epstein aligned or not, but you would never know because it's not transparent. It's not transparent and you can't own it. Like it's it's a close round, and and and like you you you can never contribute to it. You can't go there. They don't want to hire you. You don't know how it works. You know, that is just a recipe for I think a really, really disastrous outcome for this, this, this like machine god that we're building, right? We're building this machine god. Is this machine god gonna be this you know top-down totalitarian? Like, I think that the real risk is is basically Elysium. Have you seen the movie Elysium?

SPEAKER_01 45:02

No, right? No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. I have to go watch it. No, no, no, what is it?

SPEAKER_05 45:08

Uh it's a sci-fi and it's um Matt Damon, and uh basically it's this future world where the whole world looks kind of like Gaza, okay, right? It's just destroyed, and the the elites live in this space station uh where they have access to like better medical medical technology and robots. Okay. Um and you know, like this is the vision for the Silicon Valley elite, right? Because they don't have the tools for anything else, so they just imagine that they want to be the people that are own everything, yeah. Pick the ladder up behind you, right? Yeah, and there's like no agency for the rest of us in in their vision for the future, and um, you know, they'll have robot like Elon Musk will have a robot army to himself, yeah. He will be a trillionaire, uh, and and you will not participate, and you will you will own nothing and be happy or whatever. Nothing and be happy.

SPEAKER_02 46:07

Yeah, so can this decentral uh finish? Sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry, finish.

SPEAKER_05 46:12

No, it's okay. Like, I think you get the point. Like, we we can we we can just build it differently, and like two paths that people want like one is the centralized labs, and the other one's like government oversight, and the government oversight is just not gonna work because it's really inefficient, and the centralized labs are just winning because they're faster, but they they they're there there's no openness, there's no there's no shared control, and and you just can never participate. Whereas, like anybody who's watching this, anybody who's watching this this this thread right now can just go out and per join our Discord and mine bit tensor and become a successful person in bit inside BitTensor, participate in in like you know, give us your humbled masses, you're to be free. Like, you can come and just join BitTensor and become a board of directors, right? Like you can just become important in this ecosystem. And you there's no way that you can do that with the centralized lab.

SPEAKER_02 46:57

So so the unfortunate story with AI or with crypto, at least as it relates to AI, is it's always like um, you know, in in Silicon Valley artificial intelligence, they build this like really cool thing, and it's like, hey, crypto kids, go play with like the retard light version. Like, cool, Peter Steinberger builds open claw, and then we're like trading open claw meme coin on fucking Solana Nintendo, right? And so the question is like, okay, Bit Tensor, um, you could participate in building this like open and decentralized, you know, AI future, but like, can you actually compete at a serious, meaningful level? Like, how what does that look like? How can you actually compete? You can participate, fuck it, but can you can you compete?

SPEAKER_05 47:40

Right. Well, okay, so just take shoots. It's one of the top centers of the tensor, um, was for a very long time. So they built this perfect market for compute where you can like the miners bring the compute and and you inference them and you get the outputs, and like that runs open claw as an example, or you can build a real agent or code with it as an example. So the they were getting um the fastest tokens per second on open router on a whole bunch of open source models and at the cheapest price. Um, and and not just the cheapest price, like because they lowered the price, but like economically, they were able to get the lowest price when they looked at the cost at the price they were paying per H200 hour. And why was that? It was because let's say that you want to go become an inference provider with somebody that that has a bunch of compute and you play this game. Um, you can't actually compete against the the like this like liquid wear economic system where basically if at any every moment in time, if you're not as good as the last, the next guy, you just get kicked from the network, and the better guy who can run infrastructure and for do it for cheaper brings comes in. So you build this this inferencing providing company, and then you want to like you know rest on your laurels and like take a bit for yourself. Well, the market takes a long time to cut that away, that inefficiency, but we do it instantaneously, we do it every hour, right? Every hour we're remeasuring and replacing and remeasuring and replacing. And so this like hyper annealing towards efficiency is where we are able to get okay, the compute for way cheaper and the inference very fast if we can measure that properly. And so, you know, we don't just talk a big game and don't do anything. Like we we were serving um at one point the the largest number of of open source model tokens on open router for like a whole six month period. We it was just shoots. And uh we were doing that by this competitive game that was allowing us to do it for really cheap and and really efficiently. And that's just one narrative, that's just one narrow band. But then, like you apply that to everything else, like uh building like coding agents that are really good at solving problems. I want to asterisk here because it's like really difficult to do this, like it's it's it's a much harder problem to do what we're doing. But when we get it right, it just goes way faster. And we and it goes, it's way more efficient. And and so we can compete, we can actually just like always win if we can define the problem better than them because we can just consume theirs and put it into ours and then beat it, and and it just goes faster. And corporations tend to just stultify and die because people don't want to work. But when you when you're you know, fuck the miners on BitTensor, they have to work, man. And uh they they do. And so, like we we've proved time and time again there was a good period, like in 2024, we were just crushing benchmarks everywhere. We were we were crushing benchmarks of you know, fastest searching, fastest embeddings, fastest uh AI, best AI detection, best, best like three generation, best, best, best, best, best, best, best, best, best, best. Every single one of those has something that they're the best at. And you know, you you go and you become the best at it, and then you try to monetize it, and sometimes it doesn't work. But yeah, we we we're probably one of the only cryptos that can say that, like that we actually do things that are soda, state of the art. Um, uh, and I think that like we will continue to do that. We so we have the best, you know, the largest decentralized training run in the world, we have the largest decentralized model ever run, we have the best algorithms for it, the the model the miners are doing it the most efficiently and the most effectively. Um, and then that will I think we'll just is really just gonna continue in that direction. And so we just need honestly time because it it's nothing's gonna happen fast, but yeah.

SPEAKER_02 51:25

How does that like acceleration curve work once, like you said, it really starts starts working? Like how uh like violent is that?

SPEAKER_05 51:33

Well, yeah, it it's like the the thing about incentive mechanisms is that they're very hard because they're permissionless, you don't control everything. There's so many ways to exploit them, there's so many ways to cheat. And so you have to get very, very precise about how you define the metric of success in a in a way that people can't just like say copy the answer, like as an as an example. Um, but when you do, it's kind of like aiming this massive laser cannon, and and you finally get in the line, and then boom, it explodes something. It's it has this kind of quality where there's the zero to ones, always zero. It's like it's not working at all, and then it's working all in an amazing way. Um, and so that's that's often like when you're if you're looking at subnets, you know, they may have a really good idea. It might the incentives might not be aligned properly. If they can get the incentives aligned, they'll have success very quickly, like in whichever domain they they pick.

SPEAKER_02 52:31

What what are you the most excited about right now? Like you're working on a subnet, BitTensor. I mean, it's not I don't think it's fair to say you're getting a lot of attention right now because you've honestly been had it for a while. But what are you like? I don't know, you're kind of like fucking Chad. I was gonna glaze you when you got off, but you could clearly, I mean you could look, you can work out whatever you wanted, I'm sure. And so what what are you like the most excited about and like trying to solve like with Bit Tensor and like in the world? I don't know.

SPEAKER_05 52:59

Um good question. I have a lot of projects going. Um wow, interesting. One of them I think that uh we need to solve, and and like we're trying to solve on Bit Tensor, and I think we will solve it, is is like human identity in an open source way. Um, you know, rather than the orb, like let's build open source software that can do human detection, um, and the human and uniqueness as well. So like we can build like identity identity systems that are open source. I think that's really cool. And why did WorldCoin fail? Not to just throw you off off because everyone hates them. Um like because you can't get funding from Sam Altman, the guy who's trying to enslave us and then pretend to be like you know, like we're freedom technology. Yeah, like what are you trying to do? I don't know. Like it just seemed odd, and like the orb like was so dystopian.

SPEAKER_02 53:51

Yeah, brutal.

SPEAKER_05 53:52

Well, why would you do it like that? And then the technology is actually really good, though. Like the the guys were really smart, it works, right?

SPEAKER_02 53:57

It's it's a great there's I always I always tweet this whenever some weird shit happens. There's like a parallel universe where world coin is like flip flip bitcoin, you know.

SPEAKER_05 54:05

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Isn't that a testament to this industry? Like that we we actually, you know, people fucking hate crypto people so bad for good reasons sometimes, but also like deep down, we're we're freedom fighters, and that's why world coin didn't work, is because we're permeated by people that actually believe in freedom. You know what I mean? Like that that's that is actually who we are, and that's not an AI, by the way. The AI people who think they're so hot and high and high high and mighty, they're all just they're just normies, they're all blue church people. I love them to death, they're all very smart, but they're not freedom people, they don't really grasp geopolitics, you know what I mean? They don't really understand, and they don't really care, they're just gonna go work for the Borg and make their money and live and play their board games. But the the crypto people are are like we're renegades, man. And so you can't try to do world coin on us, it's not gonna work. Um, so, anyways, but the human human thing is a big thing. Like, um, taking decentralized training to like a trillion parameters is is is is really the angle for for Templar. Um, and then like I'm currently what I'm trying to do is is basically stitch all of the subits together in with an with agentic. Um basically, like you've seen what's happening with auto research and like what people can do with their their open claws. Well, I a bit tensor is like moving into a new era where it's the perfect ecosystem for agents because you can play every side of it. So, like you can a machine learning model is now at the point where it's like an AI can mine BitTensor and also build subnets and trade it and like buy the commodities that it needs directly from the chain. And so it all starts to really integrate as an ecosystem with agents. You say, here's a towel wallet, go run some compute, get some inference, store some files, go mine bit tensor and make money to fund the whole thing, and then make a subnet to do you what you want. And like that, that's you know, crypto is the is the perfect play play place for agenc, um, the agentic world. And like what I'm excited about is basically you doing that myself. Like, I I I can now just run 10 companies with with the IA agents, and like that's what I'm excited about using it to to speed up Bit Tensor and like build on BitTensor.

SPEAKER_02 56:19

That was beautiful. I um I know it's late for you. I kind of want to ask you like a sign-off here. I I think we hit like most of the Bit Tensor stuff. Um, I want to ask you like a crypto question. I wasn't expecting you to be like so cypherpunk and like just have great takes on crypto. Is you're really optimistic about crypto. I'm really optimistic. Crypto changed my life. I I would not be here without crypto. I came in through NFTs, I have like a different origin story. I came into trade stayed because it's fucking awesome here. But you're building and working on you know the future, and I'm trading. And most stuff here is slop and garbage. So when you trade a lot of slop and garbage, you tend to get pretty, pretty fucking cynical, taking into account where we are right now, where the market is, and then maybe like you know, where where AI has gone, where it feels like a lot of talent is fleeting, running away, we get like the light version. And so I think a lot of the trading side, I'm not even sure how much you interface with with this cohort, is very cynical, is very jaded, and questioning was it all just a vehicle for BlackRock tokenization and Bitcoin's and Epstein Pito coin, and we all just die and lose. Like, where 2026, like you know, you were here 2015 mining Bitcoin, you have to eat those cyberpunk freedom fighters 2026. What keeps you so obsessed and passionate about crypto? Because you're you're like a dying breed, if you will.

SPEAKER_05 57:46

Well, I mean, like, yeah, if you I've been in the industry since 2020, 2015, and like I've seen a number of bull runs, right? And like uh people get so exuberant, and then you get all these just assholes show up, like the like the frat boys show up, and and they just ruin it, and and then they lose a bunch of money, and then they're disenthralled, and then it's a great breath of fresh air, and then it comes back. And like obviously that's like cycles, and um, but like what what what keeps me going is is what kept me going from the very beginning is like like Bitcoin's vision of a fair monetary future, with like one where you know governments are tethered to a system that they can't manipulate through war, right? It's like what are we seeing right now in the world, right? We're seeing people trying to fight for the dollar reserve currency, like the number of people that have died because the only way to win that game is through violence. And and Bitcoin comes along and says, Hey, we can build it so that that you know they can't take that away from you. You'll always be you'll always be able to have this digital currency, you'll you'll never be able to inflate it away, uh, and they can't steal it from you, you can store it in your mind, you can transfer across the globe. I like that never died for me. And and in people always like they speculate, but like it was Epstein involved. Like, who cares? If you're smart enough to read the code, you can see how it works, and it's not doesn't say anything about Epstein in there. Like, you can just like like it doesn't matter if Epstein, it's Satan himself made Bitcoin. It doesn't matter. Bitcoin is inherently good, it's inherently a freedom technology, it doesn't matter who made it, and but most people just they can't understand it, so they so they just they they're like you know, they're playing this game where they're like, oh no, a bad person is involved, therefore it must be evil. And not that I think that Jeff Jeffrey Epstein was any in any way involved, but even if he was, is what I'm saying. Um, like that vision has never really changed. And so, okay, what Bitcoin enabled this whole future where we can play with money, right? And Ethereum invented this ability to build smart contracts, like which was a classic financial idea, in a decentralized and a trustless way. And like that still exists and is still gonna be the place where where a lot of the the digital web is is you know, the the the the web 3 web is living is in Ethereum, and I'm a big Ethereum fan as well. Um, but like also I think that we we eventually are gonna draw the attention of like real researchers that that see what we're doing at BitTensor and understand like this is real technology, like this is you can compute with money. And and so you know, none of that changed for me. So if you if if you got if you were like into pump pumped off fun, like yeah, I guess like that's not really it. I guess maybe maybe it is, but if you if you were disenthralled with it dumping, then like I I don't know. I like I think that that was uh you're kind of setting yourself up, like if you thought that was gonna go to a billion billion or whatever. So I don't know, what do you think? Dude, I think you're incredible.

SPEAKER_02 1:00:54

This is like why I love crypto, and I've been spending so much time talking about fucking oil and everything else that this was like a breath of fresh air. You you were the first person to contribute to BitTenser White Paper 2015. That's and so how many people actively work on like BitTensor versus like the subnets separate from that? How many people actively work on like bit tensor?

SPEAKER_05 1:01:19

Um not that many people actually. Do you actively work on it? Yeah, okay, yeah, yeah. I mean, I you I I stepped down from the foundation as the CEO because I wanted to just participate in the network and being in this like central figure, and like you can't have any fun. Like, I can't mine because people will like conflict of interest and things like this. So I've stepped down. Um, but yeah, yeah, I've I'm always contributing. I uh my people know my opinion for sure. What's the painting behind you?

SPEAKER_02 1:01:53

The painting?

SPEAKER_05 1:01:54

Yeah, I don't know.

SPEAKER_02 1:01:55

Oh, just a rental. Okay. I thought you gotta have some six story for me. Um, dude, this was awesome, man. I really appreciate your time and you coming on. I know it's late in Europe. Is there anything you wanted to like sign off with, or I was really supposed to ask you that I didn't ask, or anything, any yeah.

SPEAKER_05 1:02:12

I I watched you uh talk to Sammy and um I got a lot of um invites on podcasts today, but I I wanted to speak with you because I just really like your show and I like your vibe, and I think you're really dope person. Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 1:02:23

Oh, that's you felt you saw the Sammy interview. That was awesome. Someone said to me, we did November, which was actually funny, it was a while ago. Um, that's awesome, man. I appreciate you doing it.

SPEAKER_05 1:02:33

Yeah, that was sweet. And anyways, I just I just think of a great vibe, man. So, like, yeah, let's let's keep crypto going because we need to.

SPEAKER_02 1:02:40

Sick. Um uh I'm gonna DM you some stuff when we get off, just like when questions come up. Because uh, yeah, I think you're sick. Um, is there any anything you want to like direct people to? Any links you want to share? Substack, your Twitter's linked, they have it, obviously. Is there anything any place you want to send? Yeah, people fuck with you. Like, is there any place you want to send people?

SPEAKER_05 1:02:59

Uh the the big tensor discord, go try to mine a subnet. It's really fun. Sick.

SPEAKER_02 1:03:05

Um, const, by the way, pronouncing it right, yeah?

SPEAKER_05 1:03:08

Yeah, const.

SPEAKER_02 1:03:09

Dude, absolute pleasure, man. Thank you for coming on. Thank you for your time. I'm sure we'll talk offline, and this was a lot of fun, dude. Awesome to do it. All right, buddy. Have a good night. Peace. All right, where are we at with oil? Um, it's looking like the taco of all tacos has happened. Six percent candle down. Okay, oil tumble stocks surge as Israeli TV reports imminent one-month ceasefire announcement. It's just that one headline. It's just a headline, really. US seek's one month ceasefire with framework to end the war. It's just one headline. Whoa, here we go, here we go, here we go, here we go, here we go, here we go, here we go, here we go, here we go. All right, lock in, lock in, lock in. A ceasefire for a period of one month. By the way, we stop paying attention to war for like one second and everything happens. A ceasefire for a period of one month will be announced according to a mechanism that Wickhoff and Kushner are working on, according to AI setting Israeli channel 12. That's where the news came from is Israeli channel 12, no Trump. No Trump? Stop. No Trump, no Netanyahu, but Israeli channel 12 is our news source on this. Really? This is why we stopped longing oil. No, I know those guys don't negotiate, but like the announcement doesn't come from Trump himself claiming victory, anything. All right, here we go. According to AI, uh the US aims at a month-long ceasefire. The agreement with Iran is very similar to the understandings in Gaza and Lebanon. A 15-point agreement will be negotiated during the month of a possible ceasefire. The 15 clauses of the agreement with Iran. One automatically cancel the threat of reimposition of sanctions, dismantling Iran's existing nuclear capabilities. That's huge. Agreement with Iran, Iran vows to never seek nuclear weapons. I'm sure that that they will stick to that. Preventing the enrichment of any nuclear material on Iranian territory. Five, delivery of enriched uranium to the IAEA. What is this? International Atomic Energy Agency. Six. Decommissioning and destroying is this are these nuclear sites? Are these nuclear sites? What is this? Okay, they're like energy infrastructure. Grant the IAEA full access to all information. Iran abandons proxies approach. Stopping funding and arming militias in the region, keeping the trade of Kamuz open without any closure. Postponement of decision on ballistic missile program. Ballistic missiles are only used for defense, lifting all sanctions on Iran. Support the development of a civilian nuclear program. Automatically cancel the threat of reimposition of sanctions. We didn't already say this. This reads like a Christmas wish list. This is like what I really hope happened. This is like Trump's like, I really hope we get all these. This is like what he gave Kushner to go negotiate. Was like, please get these 15 things done. Um, what does Polymarket say? Hold on, before I give any takes. Um, troops on the ground is flat, didn't move. And ceasefire, ceasefire. By March 31st, hard. I mean, didn't really move, bruh. What is Israeli 12? The times of Israel channel 12. It's not the story, isn't even here. It's not on the front page. How is it not on the front page? What? This is like coin. Yeah, Cointelegraph did start the bull market. Brother, it's not even on the front page. Why is it not on the front page? Nowhere to be found. It's a free-to-air television ch television channel. I mean, this is insane. I'm sorry. This is nuts. There's no this is why I'm out of oil. Because it's fucking, you're not gonna make money in this market. Iran on potential US ground evasion. For years we've been awaiting the Americans' entry. We have just one message for the American soldiers. Come closer. Uh that does not sound to me like a ceasefire. Let's just do a quick TL scroll, then I have some takes. We have some stuff to cover. Wait, I want to read this. Seems highly irrational for Iran to open the strait during a ceasefire and forego all negotiating leverage. In that case, Trump would just aim for an indefinite ceasefire. And for that of that to even get off the ground, Iran would need to know the US is negotiating in good faith, which was proven to be a false belief weeks ago when they attacked during negotiations. The moral of the story is Iran had the leverage here as Trump is crying, uncle not Taco. But he could do everything possible to make it seem that's not a case. I mean, this is what we've been saying, but the market is just gonna crush you. Okay, a couple. Announcement of announcement. When Trump believes that his words are losing power, he Whoa, crazy take, actually. When Trump believes his words are losing power, he delegates them on to Jared Kushner and others alike who have a fresh health bar of credibility. In the war, there are no rules. Lying is the absolute least of anyone's concern when there are dead bodies in the mix. They will lie as much as they need to. Wow. That's actually a really good take. This is why we closed our fucking oil long, man. Because you're competing. If you are long oil, your counterparty is magic. Okay? Your counterparty is black magic. It is dark magic. You are competing against you are competing against a an entity that isn't even real. You're competing against an idea. We're not even trading oil. We're trading you're trading like Trump sentiment, is what you're trading. You're trading how if you're long oil, you're trading how much do people believe in Trump as a president? You're trading Trump approval rating at this point. That's what you're trading. If you're if you're trading oil, you're trading Trump's approval rating. Period. That's it. That's what you're trading. You're trading his approval rating. Many commodities traders around the world are asking thrag guy, what do you think? Thrag guy this, thrag guy that. What do you think? What do you think? What do you think? Well, I'll tell you what I think. I will tell you what I think. And in order to articulate what I think, I'm gonna bring out my old trusty, Microsoft. I think that there is a time, a timeline here. A timeline right now. Okay, there's a deadline, there's a clock. I've been watching too much, Professor Jang. I'm arguably one shot, okay? Timeline here is five days. Okay. And what is significant about five days is that in five days, 8,000 Marines are going to arrive in Iran. And so the only thing Trump cares about right now, at least it seems, and I wish we had like thought this through when we were trading oil at the beginning, is the whole game here is he's trying to buy time, right? He's trying to buy as much time as possible to do whatever he wants to do. Okay. And so there's like three outcomes here, honestly. I think there's three outcomes. Number one, which is 65% likely on polymarket. And I feel like every day that goes by that we don't have a ceasefire and we don't have a deal done feels more likely, which is just like invade ground invasion, right? There's 8,000 marines on the way to Iran, take Carg Island, whatever it is. Like number one is just invasion. And when this happens, oil's gonna get cooked. I I mean, I think, I think, right? The obvious response is oil, oil down bad. Okay, you have more wiggle room, I think. At least if I'm thinking if I'm thinking about this logic, I'm trunk. You have more wiggle room if Brent is at$95 and if Brent's at$120 when you do this. I mean, oil goes up on the invasion because once we get there, you're not. This was originally pitched to us as a three-day war, right? This was pitched as like a 20 as a 72-hour war. And so oil rips on this because full-blown escalation. Now, if it was an in and out, we're done, straights open, regime changes happen, Iran's taken. But the the assumption is that this lasts a long time. It's like, because this is not in and out. And so this is like the obvious one of the three. I'm not gonna put percents on this because I don't fucking know. But this is option number one, okay? This happens, it happens on Friday. Friday is the fucking deadline. Second option here is the best outcome for all cases. Trump taco, but for real. This means deal is done, okay? Deal is actually done. Terms don't fucking honestly at this point. I don't really care if he lies to us or not. Terms don't matter. Oil down a ton. Risk up a ton. Now, the thing about this is it doesn't solve uh pregnant man sold what's good. It doesn't solve our like initial problem, which is that AI, AI, doom, SAS pocalypse, stocks are top. Like it doesn't actually doesn't solve our like initial problems, but it solves our war problem if this gets done. Okay, this is feeling like increasingly likely is probably the best outcome for all sides. You doesn't if no matter what happens, I I feel the terms that were laid out in that ceasefire, there's no way we get all of them done. Because it's clear that Iran can just hold the straight-of-hour moves no matter how hard it takes. But let's just assume this happens. Let's assume they get the terms. This plays out. Okay. This let's play Kahoot! Hey, if somebody wins, I'll give you like a soul or something. I don't know. How much should I give?

SPEAKER_04 1:11:52

No. Alright. Whoever wins, I'll give you like how much I give. Wait, wait. What should I give the winner? What should I give the winner? Alright, I'll give you two barrels of crude oil. Whoever wins.

SPEAKER_02 1:12:07

Two barrels of crude oil. Use your uh use your your your name so I know. Alright, I think we gotta go.

SPEAKER_04 1:12:15

Ten, nine, eight, seven, six, five, four, three, two, one. Don't for me, cheat. I can't let people people are gonna claw it. I'm skipping. I'm skipping, I'm skipping, I'm skipping in five, three, two, one. People are gonna cheat, bro.

SPEAKER_02 1:12:59

What rasp? Raspberry get the fucking answers, bro! What body of water? Oh, fuck my life. Oh man, oh man, oh man, oh man, oh god. Dude, what the fu Stupid, stupid, stupid. I thought it was a trick question.

SPEAKER_04 1:13:36

Dude, who no who said it? Who said it? Who said it? Who said it?

SPEAKER_02 1:13:41

Who fucking said it? Give a I'll give a a a barrel of crude to whoever whoever doxes as green. Just do it. Just say it. Who did it? Come on. Come on. Just say it. We got who said it? Who fucking it? This was my words. I used to hate this about Kahoot, by the way. I used they would they would there'd be one person like picked yellow and they'd be like, who did it? And I'd be like, fuck, it was me, it was me. It's like the easiest question ever. Bro, how is Razmer first? I'm 53 points behind Jackson Ray, who also got the second question wrong. I know that because I got it wrong. Fuck my life. Dude, are you fucking kidding me? Razmer's actually cheating, bro. Oh. I was first. I was first. I was first. I was first. I was first. I was first. I was first. I had to be first. Dude, how? Bro, Tulub Kid can't fucking win. I'm on a work call taking this stupid quiz. If anyone gets this wrong, you're banned. 25th place. I'm fucking cooking. How many more? How many more? How many more? How many more? I don't know how many with this I can do. Like 10 more.

SPEAKER_04 1:14:59

If you get this wrong, I'm done. Dude, you made this too difficult.

unknown 1:15:05

What?

SPEAKER_02 1:15:12

No, this is bullshit. Alright, that's fine, I guess. I'm locked the fuck in now. Viblet, don't fucking get this wrong. Do not get this wrong. Board. I'm in 12th place. Let's fucking go, bro. Oh, do I look he have edge? Because I can see I'm I don't have a delay. Eighth place!

SPEAKER_04 1:15:54

Eighth place! Six plays!

SPEAKER_02 1:16:14

Nah, there's other wrong answers in the chat. I didn't even drop. Bro, you guys can't win. Why are you playing? This is actually whack. You guys can't you fucking made the question. Nah, you gotta you can't answer the next two. You actually can't answer the next two. You fucking made the questions. You can't answer the next two. I'm I'm not trolling. I'm not trolling. Somebody has to win. You can't win. Actually, you can't. You have to stop. Hey, actually, no.

SPEAKER_04 1:16:42

Actually, we're simulating the real trading environment. We're simulating the real trading environment. Okay? This is what we just talked about. There's a Trump admin and a real trading environment. Malcolm Tulip King. Answer. We're simulating a real trading environment.

SPEAKER_02 1:17:41

Okay, so remember when I told you that if Trump says the sky's red, the sky's fucking red? Welcome. Dude, in Miles is so fucking whack. Nah, nah, nah, fuck this. I'm nah. I mean, like, I got it right, but like that's so unfair, bruh. Nah. Who approved that? Two more questions. I'm just fucking. I I I didn't know. I didn't know. Last question. This is so whack. It's obviously false, right? Finn! Finn, where you at? I don't know. It says Finn Clancy, and this says Finn C. Does that count? Does that count? He didn't use the same name. Ah, he didn't use the same name, bro. He didn't use the same name. What do you mean from Rasmers chat? This thread guy's chat. This is the pit. I joined last minute from Rasmer's chat, dude. Stop. What? Guys. Alright, first person to say they were FinC and Kahoo auto wins. Um, okay. What did I say? Two barrels of crude? Fuck this, dude. We gotta do this again. I I should have had eyes on this shit. Two barrels of crude is how much? A hundred and who's in fourth place? You get a barrel of Brent. Malcolm, you fucking guys. Alright, FinC. Hey, send me a soul wallet, Fincy. Or something. Send me something. Whatever. You get a hundred and wow, this is more than I thought. 192.40. But it's fucking the only way you can claim is if it send me a screenshot of Unfalling Rasmer on Twitter and you can claim. Rasm, a screenshot of Unfall on Twitter and you can claim.

SPEAKER_04 1:20:00

I love you. I appreciate y'all. Peace.