Why Everything's Dumping, Should You Short Oil, the Problem with 4D Chess, Why I Dropped Out - Threadguy: March 20th, 2026

Timestamps: 

01:35 - the problem with 4d chess
03:44 - ranking countries spawn points
05:26 - i have a barrel of oil 
09:17 - why gold is dumping
13:33 - @rasmr_eth’s oil “short”
19:49 - sports and why i dropped out

Transcript

SPEAKER_02 0:00

iPhone 23 with 16 with an M16.

SPEAKER_05 0:04

Yo, positive note on a positive note, Thread Guy, how was the email from the accountant? Can I be honest for a second? Can I break the fourth wall for a second? If I told you the number, you wouldn't even believe it. You wouldn't believe me if I told you the number. You'd be shocked that I made that much money. Not just the amount itself, but based off how much money I have. I'm looking at this number and it's supposed to be 54%. That's my tax bracket of everything that I made in 2025. And then I look at my accounts and I'm like, where's the other 46? Pete Heggseth took it and spent it on a lobster. So no, it's horrifying. Dude, I woke up today so sad. I'm not gonna lie. I woke up today like so sad. I know a lot of people don't pay taxes on crypto. You should pay them. Like you should definitely pay them. And I'm not trying to say I'm like a public figure, but like Gavin Newsom is the president or AOC wins the election, and they're catching bodies. They're coming after me, bro. They're coming after me. Like they just are. I they're just gonna hit me with it. And so there's nothing I could do about it. So yeah, I fucking pay taxes, and we're kind of falling off a cliff right now. Um, spy down two percent, which I don't know when the last time we had a down two percent day on spy, but I did see the Kentucky Busy beat a go OG. That was insane. The whole situation here is escalating. Russell's down three percent, Q's down two, IGV down two, Nasdaq down 3.4, the Dow down another percent. Vix is sending up 15% gnarly. Um, crypto actually looks fucking pretty impressive. I'm not gonna lie. Gold off a cliff, and then individual names getting crushed. I'm just gonna read a bunch of Trump headlines. Iran unwilling to talk about opening Hormuz while under attack, which I think is like a kind of a funny scene. Is like we're just like launching missiles at Iran, and we're like, hey, can we have a discussion about opening like the oil? Like, uh, can you stop attacking this first? So gold falls. That this come this one kind of came out of nowhere. Denmark is ready to blow up airfields to stop a US invasion of Greenland. First one. Trump says we don't need the Strait of Hormuz. Second, I think Israel will be ready to end the Iran war when the US wants to end. We want more or less similar things. Next, SP declined to two percent. Next, traders turn positive on US dollar for the first time this year. So dollars ripping. Next, Trump on opening the Strait of Hormuz. At a certain point, it will open itself. Next, Trump on Carg Island. I may have a plan or I may not. I mean, what is that? What is that? I mean I may have a plan or I may not. Have you guys ever considered it's just 4D chess?

SPEAKER_06 2:27

The US is playing 4D chess, they just really fucking bro.

SPEAKER_05 2:36

I feel like I've been shitting on him too much. I mean, the 40 chess guys, like, here's my problem with the 40 chess guys. 40 chess with a perspective, I'm down for. I'm down for 40 chess with a like it's for blank, and you have a way to tie it together. If you say just 40 chess, and then you don't have a like goal, it's like it's just like intellectually boring. Give me some sauce. Otherwise, what's the point, you know? Then there's this is Trump has made detail the Trump admin has made detailed preparations for deploying the U.S. ground forces into Iran. Um, uh senior military commanders have sent Trump specific requests aimed at preparing for a ground invasion. Trump has been deliberating whether to position ground forces in the region. The U.S. has held meetings to prepare for how to handle the possible detonation of Iranian soldiers. The US is preparing to deploy elements of the 82nd Airborne Division into the Middle East region. It's going to be another busy weekend ahead. U.S. forces enter. Look, this thing was down, it's fucking back up 71%. And they're now talking about sending 8,000 Marines and sailors. Okay, US is a goaded spawn point. Because, like, okay, I think Australia is kind of goaded too. Because you're a full island, but you don't want to be like, I think being entirely an island is like a little bit whack because you have like no bodies of land surrounding you. This, I think, is objectively where you want to be. Maybe Argentina is pretty sick too. Argentina is pretty sick. The US is sick because you have like it's give Canada above, like, bro. We're not worried about Canada at all. So if you have Canada above, you're a big chilling. Canada above Mexico below, you dominate this in Alaska. How many people live in Alaska? 730,000. That's actually more than I thought. And so if you're the US, you get like giga protection because nothing is happening down here. You dog this, and then nothing's happening up here, they're useless. And so you have like full body protection. That is a goaded spawn point. Iran low-key isn't is a tough one, I feel like. Like you get the mountain protection, and you just happen to own this strait, but you're surrounded by like chaos. Iceland is kind of goaded too. That's a good spot. Australia, I like, and then objectively, Russia has an OP spawn. Although it gets really cold because it's also like they have oil. What is Saudi Arabia doing in all of this with the Strait of Hormuz? What is Saudi Arabia doing right now? Nothing? They can't do anything. By the way, India has a pretty sick spawn point as well. I like India's spawn, it's a really good spawn point. Russia not OP until they own Ukraine. Yeah. Fair. And then South Africa is objectively goaded. What is this? Yeah, Madagascar is lit. Argentina is lit. But US has the best spawn. I I don't really think this is much of a debate. Like, we just have OP spawn points. I did a thing. Crude is up only. I feel like it should be up higher. It's candling. And all I'm hearing is price controls this, export controls this, export ban that. And you guys know I'm I'm pretty I I have been on and off long crude, and I will not let that happen. I am not willing to have my upside in this market be stopped and be shunned by some export controls or some export bans. So I took matters into my own fucking hands and I exercise my contracts, baby. We got a shit.

SPEAKER_04 5:58

We got a shit, baby! I got one.

SPEAKER_05 6:01

They will not nope, no, no, no, no. I got this shit right here. One barrel of American crude oil in hand, okay? You can cap the price, you can slap export controls on it. This thing right here,$200 a fucking barrel. We're using the house as a storage facility, and all contracts of crude that I am long, I am exercising. There is a fucking UPS truck outside. There's two guys, they have one of those dollies, and they're legging them into the house. These things are not going for less than$200 a barrel, and I will not be subjected to fucking price controls. So got one of the big boys, man. Fucking around, man. I have a thesis. I see it through the whole way. Now it leads me to a tweet. I have a tweet. I have a pretty good tweet. I had actually had never seen this before. It was a really good one. I wish I didn't read it because I was crying laughing when I read it earlier. Now I'm not gonna laugh, but it's really funny. And it reads, Can I refuse delivery on my 50 tons of egg futures? Still, it's still really funny. So I went a bit overboard with DCE JD contracts, fresh egg hen futures. I took a bunch of drugs and my friend had a bird, and I don't know why it made me think a bird flu strain was coming this year, so I got a shit ton of contracts. Turns out I hit the lottery as farmers across the nation massacred their chicken stocks because of a bird flu. I got in about 3750 a contract and cash out at 4,400. I apparently did not get all of my contracts out, and now I have people contacting me saying I need to take physical delivery of 10 contracts. A contract is five metric tons of eggs. I live in an apartment. I cannot take delivery of 50 tons of eggs. What do I do? I made a killing so I can hire whoever I need to make this go away, but can somebody help me? I do not want 50 tons of eggs coming to my door. Would it be illegal for me to list delivery address to the nearest Federal Reserve building? For reference and perspective, there are approximately 1,174 and 2381 dozen eggs in a single ton. This puts me at approximately 1.2 million eggs. I'm really stressing out over the logistics of how the fuck I'd ship out this amount of eggs to shelters. It would have to be so many shelters. Edit. Those of you DMing and commenting, offering to buy my eggs, there's a 0% chance of doing business with anyone autistic enough to use this sub. Somehow we would find a way to both lose massive money. Um, I had tears in my eyes when I read it for the first time. It's an incredible post. This is from the pit. Yo, Caleb reads. I read this on the on the company call this morning. I was just re-watching the stream recap yesterday that you started posting recently, which is super sick, by the way. Thank you, my brother. Thank you. And the whiteboard seg had me thinking if we ever went troops on the ground, the war officials need to zoom out and look at what it is like from a clash royale PA POV. Now hear me out. At first it sounds like the most retarded thing ever, but to win a Clash Royale base, you need to take out air defenses first, then you start sending the Jits on the ground to take over. If you go D-Day mode, you will get absolutely cooked to the next stratosphere. But if you parlay drone warfare while simultaneously sending troops on the ground in certain pockets and repeat that process, you may just have a victory in the works. Pit, baby. That's what we do. Be honest, y'all think Pete Heggseth is on Clash Class. I think he meant Clash of Clans. Y'all think Heggseth is on Clash of Clans or no? Okay, here's here's what we're gonna do. Remember yesterday we wrote we read the article from A. B. Campbell, the silver trader who said that they we should like airdrop guns into uh Iran and shit. One of the smarter commodity, like gold medals guy on this app posted a new article. So, all right, what the heck happened to gold? Here's gold right now. And by the way, you would think that geopolitical unrest would lead to gold performing well. Like so you would think this would trade inverse to risk, right? Risk sells off, geopolitical tension goes up. This should like go up with geopolitical tension, but it feels like everybody is like who is it? Middle East is selling gold to buy oil, Middle East is selling gold because the revenue is down because the oil is is paused. Jane Streets in the order books, what did it just get overbought and it's just a speculative risk asset now? Like, yeah, maybe. I don't really know. Um, I read, yeah, this is the Centrini, is like when you when you are afraid, when you think bad things are gonna happen, you buy gold. When bad things are happening, you sell gold. So here's the article. When you see something falling 10z, you kind of need a good reason. So the blow list may feel uncomfortable, but but not many of them are also in play during the January 30th. Worst puke. Dollar strength, higher rate uh rates, scramble for liquidity, lack of Middle Eastern Asian buyers. I think this is a big one right here. Um Ugly chart, aka technicals, reversion of speculative flows. Let's go through them in order. Dollar strength. The dollar is ripping, DXY is back near 100, up almost 5% annualized off the lows. When oil spikes, dollars get scarce globally because everybody needs them to buy energy. This is the same mechanical dollar strength we saw in 2008, 2020, and mid-2022. And every time that happens, gold get hit first because it's the most liquid thing people can sell to raise cash. Fully like that. Higher rates. Higher rates weren't just expected, but for the first time in the oil crisis, they gapped up. When the market opened this morning, US two-year rates were 60 basis points higher than they were at the end of last month. This wasn't just a US story. European rates are not pricing in direct hike hikes. While the US has a weird curve where SOFR saw for trends up for the next six months, and then we get another cutting cycle. This is the interest rates curve's way of telling you how painful the shift in monetary policy is. If you recall, most other periods of sustained gold weakness came in moments where the dollar was strong and real yields were rising, like 2008. So DXY up and yield up is bad for the market. And so if we look at DXY up, go like four hours, dollar strong as fuck, and then like US, he said US two year pair handling. Uh okay, so both of those things are happening. Yields up and dollar up. Interesting, and then gold just gets wrecked. You get the idea for gold denominated in dollars, tight dollar and global liquidity is bad news. Three out of five scramble for liquidity. So who might be scrambling for liquidity right now? Well, there's a lot of folks. This is my this is what I think who in the Middle East who coincidentally are not only having a hard time selling their petroleum, but are finding a lot of stuff they use to make that equipment on fire. As they say, the pain will continue until I no longer post oil and gas rigs on fire in the blog. This theory is under debate as we have no official confirmation of private or public flows in Gulf countries. Four out of five. Lack of uh Middle Eastern and Asian buyer. What we do know is Dubai was serving as the primary hub by which gold went from London sellers to Indian and other Asian buyers. The pipe is broken right now. This isn't a structural shift in demand, it's a plumbing problem. But the plumbing problems can take months to reroute, and in the meantime, the marginal physical buyer can't get their gold. Iran was also a decent-sized purchaser going into the crisis, running at around 100 tons a year or close to 3% of the total demand. But both of these are specific, are war-specific one-offs. They reverse when Hormuz reopens, but right now they're real and removing a meaningful chunk of physical demand from the market. Uh added new restrictions on Chinese demand, gold in China, and the pipe for buyers just got much tighter. Last but not least, the same people who came out of the woodwork at the end of January are now coming out in force, pushing the narrative that not only is gold a bad hedge, but that basically the chart looked crappy as it passed a trend line. This kind of stuff does matter to some extent when you have CTAs, trend followers, moving fast and pushing people through their stops. He basically just said what we said about why it's down.

SPEAKER_03 13:33

I was watching Thread Guy's stream, and he has a surprise for the chat. He gets a big, big oil barrel, and he starts dancing around. We got the oil, we're longing this shit. We're we're stacking up our oil.

SPEAKER_05 13:45

By the way, I did not say we're longing. I did not say that. I did not say that. I said I will not be subject to export bans. I did not say I'm long. I am, but that's not what I said in the clip. I did not say I'm long. I'm not pushing my longs on anybody.

SPEAKER_03 14:00

Oil to 200, baby. It's going to the moon. I'm opening my short. I didn't say I did I say that chat? Yes or no? I've I've just suddenly been authorized to like open up my short and take a conviction trade because the early celebration is just unbelievable. He's like, I'm not doing an early celly. I'm not doing the early celly, but we were right about everything. Okay, let's go. Let's go. Rasmer versus the pseudo-intellectual com- Wait, G-Man from our chat?

SPEAKER_05 14:28

What? G-Man plays from our chat right now? This is live. Nah, deadass Bandon, bro.

SPEAKER_03 14:34

I'm opening an oil short at 90. Bro, what? He's in here. What the fuck? 98. And I'm not married to this bag, right? Like, Brad guy's getting a fucking big old barrel of oil and he's married to it. He's getting emotionally invested, and that's exactly what I want to see, right? When I short. Wait, where did you short? Like, what's your entry?

SPEAKER_05 14:51

Just let us know. And how much leverage and size. I'll open it after stream. This is the difference, by the way. This is the fucking difference between this stream and everyone else. That's like, oh, I'm a financial, like I'm a finance content creator. It's like, no, none of these people fucking trade. Nobody takes risks. Everyone gets on the stream and they fucking yap and they talk this, that, the third. I'm I'm this position, I'm this position. Nobody puts size in the market. It's very simple. Risk takers respect risk takers, and everybody else should go fuck themselves. And that's why people ask me, like, oh, threat guy, like, oh, you only have 166 viewers on Twitch. I have 166 people that show up every day that fucking take risk, put their dick on the table, spend every hour of every day trying to get smarter so they can take more risk, make money in the markets, and accurately speculate. Because I want to make fucking money. I want to sit down when some new shit happens in the world. I want to have the ball knowledge to digest it, to see through it, to pick a side, and I want to fucking pick up the money off the floor. I want to pick up the money off the floor. And the only way we're gonna do that is if we sit here and we read these dog shit ass articles so we can figure out who's a LARP, who's not, what's good, what's bad. You think I want to listen to fucking professor Jang for an hour every day? You think I want to do that? No. But if you can't figure out who's smart and who's retarded, then you can't figure out where you sit on that spectrum, you can't pick up the free money off the floor. And so we're good on this side. We're good on this side. We're good on this side. Yeah, Jang caught it crazy straight. Yeah, he did go and talk about it. By the way, I'm gonna be honest. I'm kinda hype to watch the Jang video today. I'm gonna I'm gonna be so for real. Um I'll call Raz real quick and then I gotta I gotta get back to the work. Hey man, dude. I am on stream by the way.

SPEAKER_03 16:46

No, I'm not a larger. I really do trade though. Like you have a chat.

SPEAKER_05 16:50

I didn't I didn't I didn't call you a larger. I just I we just wanted the position, that's all. I just wanted to know what your entry and your stop loss was. That's it.

SPEAKER_04 16:57

Stop loss? Oh, you do stop losses on your fucking trades? You're fucking soft, you little bitch. I got a stop loss, it's a liquidation.

SPEAKER_05 17:06

Okay, the position's not even open, right? Or no?

SPEAKER_04 17:10

Okay, bro. I I got you. I I'll post the position.

SPEAKER_05 17:14

No, you I'm not even asking you to tweet. I just like go to the number just so I can mark it.

SPEAKER_04 17:18

Okay, well, you have about 10x the net worth as me, so maybe my you know.

SPEAKER_05 17:22

No no, I didn't ask you, I I I didn't ask you how much it was. I just said like what what what's the entry? That's all.

SPEAKER_04 17:27

Oh my god, and it's dipping, bro. What the fuck? I'm getting worse entry.

SPEAKER_03 17:31

Okay, okay, fuck it. Do I just take I mean dude, it's down three dollars. What did fucking Trump say some shit?

SPEAKER_05 17:36

Like, dude, it would have been so much aura if you actually did it and you fucking didn't. You didn't have the fucking balls to put on the table and make the trade. If you did, you would have been so cool and you fucking admitted you're not even in it. So now you can't even victory lap your clip. You can't even victory lap your clip, because if you did victory lap your clip, we're gonna fucking, we're gonna shit on you. We're gonna shit on you. I gotta go.

SPEAKER_00 18:00

Y'all tapped into Palm Beach Pete. Good morning, everybody. This is Palm Beach Pete from Palm Beach, Florida. I want to thank everybody for the positive comments I got from saying I'm not Jeffrey Epstein. I'm just Palm Beach Pete. Going to play some tennis today, going into town, have lunch. I'm so not Jeffrey Epstein, I'm just me being me, and it's a crazy phenomenon that has gone really viral, and I really appreciate all the support. And just want to reiterate, I'm Peter from Palm Beach. Have nothing to do with Jeffrey Epstein. He's a very bad person, what he did, obviously, and he is dead, and I'm alive.

SPEAKER_06 18:47

Oh my god, dude.

SPEAKER_00 18:49

Hi, this is Palm Beach Pete, and my video went viral because some dude randomly filmed me while I was driving on I-95, unbeknownst to me. And the next thing I know, I'm a viral sensation. Um, I had my phone down for about four hours, and I didn't know my phone was blowing up with all these comments from that video. So I got a lot of traction. It's pretty crazy. Thanks. You're not Jeffrey Epstein? I'm not Jeffrey Epstein. I'm Pompey.

SPEAKER_05 19:20

Okay. Hey, Via, is you're thinking election in the city or no? No, they got on a podcast, bro.

SPEAKER_01 19:26

Um, what we did what the internet couldn't is Jeffrey Epstein.

SPEAKER_05 19:30

The Nick Gordo show? Nah, bro.

SPEAKER_01 19:33

Is Jeffrey Epstein alive? Um, what we did what the internet couldn't do, we searched. We asked around, we looked all over Florida and we tracked down the man.

SPEAKER_05 19:47

Wow, we got him on a pod, bro. By the way, VCU, baby. My fucking VCU Rams. Got a top. I had to bet. I bet a thousand on polymarket. I had to do it. VCU. I'm gonna be honest, guys. I went to college for one year just so I could drop out, and then I could have some niche college that I tell people I've gone to that they've never heard of that, like, just so happens to be nasty at college basketball and wins a couple upsets every like decade in March Madness. That happens to be VCU. Like, I straight up went just so I could like have some fucking lore for the Floyd's at the bar. Like, yeah, I went to this college. I'm like, what's this college? I'm like, you're right at Richmond, Virginia. Yeah, there's a party in my city because we fucking beat North Carolina. What did you study? I didn't. I really didn't. I was a business major undecided. I went to college for a year, and then I went to accounting 101, my sophomore year. I went to the first class and it was all Zoom. And we were in the in the group me, it's called group me, and we were learning material day one in accounting 101. And I said, I can't I can't do it. I actually was telling a story the other day. I said, I can't do this. And I walked to the admissions office, and there's a sweet lady sitting there, and I said to her, um, is it too late to drop out? Like, she's like, No, you can drop out whenever you want. And I'm like, Can I get like tuition back? She's like, You absolutely can. I'm like, all of it. She's like, You absolutely can. And I'm like, Okay, can can we like do that? And she's like, We absolutely can. I'm like, okay, yeah, do that. And she's like, All right, it's done. And I'm like, what do you mean? Like it's it's like done? She's like, yeah, like a refund is on the way. I'm like, that's it. You know, I'm like, call my mom, nothing. Nope, that's it. You're over 18, aren't you? I said, Yeah, I am. She said, Yeah, you're good. Uh, you're no longer a student. Good luck. I was like, okay. And I was out. Also, quick story. My mom texted me to bring this up. My college roommate's little brother. Who here knows ball? My college roommate's little brother is a pro, bro. I just saw him. He plays for Tennessee. Nate Ayman. He's gonna be a top 10 pick. He's a legit pro. This kid's a fucking pro. Um, like actually a profess. He's gonna be a professional. Top 10 pick, probably. First round pick for sure. Plays on Tennessee. So if you're watching, tap in, go roof my boy. At Tennessee. And last but not least, I made a couple retarded bets just because I couldn't help myself. I bet Kansas at 1% to win it all. Like 500 to win like fucking 40k. St. John's, same thing at 1%. 500, and I bet Arkansas. Darius Acuff, the best guard in college basketball. Um, maybe the best guard Calla Perry's ever had at Arkansas. Um they play uh Grand Canyon, bro, tomorrow or in two days. I just fired a couple Hail Marys. I'm a I'm a diehard Kansas fan. Darren Peterson. I love St. John's because I think Rippertino is the cool let's just watch this real quick. We'll sign off with this. I think Ripertino is the coolest guy of all time. And I think Darius A. Cuff's the best guard in basketball.

SPEAKER_02 22:44

Oh, I love this guy.

SPEAKER_04 22:48

Oh, I love St. John's!

unknown 22:52

I can feel it.

SPEAKER_04 22:55

I fucking love St. John's, bro.

SPEAKER_05 23:05

I fucking love St. John's. Shout out to Rick Patino.

SPEAKER_00 23:09

It's more than just bad.

SPEAKER_05 23:10

Imagine if RJ Lewis played good last year, man. Basketball.

SPEAKER_00 23:13

It's my family.

SPEAKER_05 23:19

Imagine RJ Lewis played good last year in that one game.

SPEAKER_02 23:27

Godfather, baby. I love you. I appreciate y'all so much.