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Trump Admin Resignations, Vanity Fair Covers Crypto, Stablecoins Will Save US Bonds, Citrini Was Right Again - Threadguy: March 17th, 2026
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Timestamps:
00:37 - Marc Andreessen doesn’t think?
04:14 - Trump admin resignations
09:53 - Citrini keeps being right
12:11 - Vanity Fair’s crypto expose
17:17 - Stablecoins can save the US bond market
28:48 - fejau_inc interview
Let's go, let's go, let's go. We got a very special stream. We got a holiday stream. Look, man, not everyone streams on the fucking holidays. That's what I do. Greened out. I'm overgreen everything, baby. Look, we got a bunch to talk about. We got we got a lot to get into today. Hey, here's how we're gonna start the stream. I have a bitwise video. It's gonna set the tone a little bit. Take 60 seconds to watch this graphic from Bitwise. Then he goes, the audio is not from Bitwise. I'm gonna talk about this tech meltdown, this tech PR meltdown. What the fuck is going on with tech, man? On what just feels like the worst PR tours in the history of the world. If Sam Altman and Dario wasn't bad enough, who I mean, just generationally bad. The Sam and Dario press tour was so bad. Finally, they stopped going on podcasts. And now the biggest investor in the world is on this like global tour talking about how he doesn't think.
SPEAKER_05You don't have any levels of introspection. Yes, zero.
SPEAKER_04As little as possible. Why? Move forward. Go. Yeah, I don't I don't know. I've just I've found people who dwell on the past get stuck in the past. It's it's just it's a real problem, and it's a it's a problem at work and it's a problem at home.
SPEAKER_05So I've read obviously 400 and I think now 10 biographies of history's case entrepreneurs, and that was one of the most surprising things. Like, what's the most surprising thing that you've learned from this? Like, oh, they have little or zero introspection. Like Sam Walton didn't wake up thinking about his internal self. He just woke up.
SPEAKER_07Chat, y'all got an inner monologue or not? I have a crazy one. I I do a hella introspection. I'm not gonna lie. Like a lot, y'all, y'all got an inner fellas. Is it weird to have a have an inner monologue or no?
SPEAKER_05It's like I like building Walmart, I'm gonna keep building Walmart, I'm gonna make more Walmarts, and just kept doing it over and over again.
SPEAKER_04And you probably know if you go back like before hundred years ago, it never it never would have occurred to anybody to be introspective.
SPEAKER_07Like it's the the whole idea of I mean, the just the all of the modern wasn't like Marcus Aurelius and like Plato and shit just sitting around talking all day and thinking. Isn't that what philosophy is? Isn't that what they were doing all day? Is you're sitting around smoking weed, doing acid and talking about Rome.
SPEAKER_04It's it's all it's it's it's it's all a new construct.
SPEAKER_07It was you know isn't it? It's called meditations, right? Marcus Aurelius Meditations, that's the book, no? It's called Meditations, and then this came out, which is like US tech billionaire Peter Thiel is holding secret lectures in Rome about the anti-christ and technology intention with Pope Leo XIV who warns about AI risk. Teal says AI regulation could enable a global authority authoritarian system that holds scientific progress, where the Pope argues regulations need to manage AI dangers. Regulation is not gonna happen. The private talks organized by a conservative Catholic group linked to the far right have been criticized by Vatican figures in uh Catholic media. Dude, I just think like SF AI scene should just elect a public speaker and he should speak on behalf of everybody. And that should, we're just done with it. It should there should be a democratic vote amongst all of the AI leaders to select one person who was allowed to go on podcasts and do media and tweet and speak. Feels like it's gonna have cultural impact on how polarizing these people are to the entire world. There's just going to be blowback to this. I cannot remember a technology or a cultural movement or anything similar. Correct me if I'm wrong, that was this hated by normal people. And a reasonable amount of the hate is from these fucking podcasts. Like it, bro, it is. I it is it's from these podcasts, it is these Sam Altman clips, it is these Mark and Dreesson clips. Like it it matters, and it's gonna manifest in them making life harder for themselves. It just is, it's gonna manifest in subsidies, it's eventually gonna manifest in UBI, it's gonna manifest in making political power more difficult, getting laws passed more difficult, policy more difficult. It is just going to manifest in friction. It there's no scenario in which it doesn't. I mean, I kind of listen to this stuff and I'm like, guys, what the fuck? Anyways, that's my take. SF Tech is losing it. Guys, I'm just gonna be honest, it there's been zero good news that have come out of the Middle East since this thing has started. There's been zero positive headlines that have come out of the Middle East with Iran versus US slash Israel. And I know I sold, and I know that I entered a small position with high leverage, and so it's like a little bit annoying for me to come here and like bullpost oil again. But man, I have yet to see a positive de-escalating headline since this entire thing has gone down. Here's the latest news Joe Kent, okay, who is the director of the National Counterterrorism Center, stepped down today. And it seems rather significant. Here's his announcement. President Trump, after much reflection, I have decided to resign from my position as director of the national counterterrorism center effective today. This was this morning, I believe. This morning. I cannot, in good conscience, support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation. And it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby. Kind of a crazy post. I support the values and the foreign policies that you campaigned on in 2016, 2020, 2024, which you enacted in your first term. Until June of 2025, you understood that the wars in the Middle East were a trap that robbed America of the precious lives of our patriots and depleted the wealth and prosperity of our nation. He basically came out and said, one, Iran posed no threat to America. Two, I supported your efforts before completely, and thought you were right before. Three, back in the day, your admin understood more than any modern president how to decisively apply military power without getting drawn into never-ending war. Four, you were psy-opped into believing that we should get into a war with Iran. Crazy. That's a mask-off comment. He basically said, you were psyoped into believing that we should get into this war when deep down you know we shouldn't. And then he says, as a veteran who deployed to combat 11 times, and as a gold star husband who lost my beloved wife Shannon in a war manufactured by Israel, I cannot support sending the next generation off to fight and die in a war that serves no benefit to the American people nor justifies the cost of American lives. Crazy post. He basically comes out, this is a disaster. Trump was psyoped. He has no idea what he's doing or why we're fighting this war, and that many Americans are going to die in this war for no apparent reason. I don't know. I feel like he's alluding, especially with the timing of this, to ground troops in Iran. Right? To me, that's what this means. And so immediately after Trump comes out and says, basically, he says it's a good thing he's out because he said Iran was not a threat. There's another clip actually here. Watch this.
SPEAKER_01I always thought he was a nice guy, but I always thought he was weak on security, very weak on security. Uh I didn't know him well, but I thought he seemed like a pretty nice guy. Uh but when I read a statement, I realized that it's a good thing that he's out because he said that Iran was not a threat. Iran was a threat. Every country realized what a threat Iran was. The question is whether or not they wanted to do something about it. But Trump basically says he was weak.
SPEAKER_07Good thing he's out, which seemed fine until I clicked on the Twitter profile of Joe Kent and read his pinned tweet from February 3rd, 2025. Donald Trump. It is my pleasure to nominate Joe Kent as a director of the National Counter-terrorism center. As a soldier, Green Barrett, and CIA officer, Joe has hunted down terrorists and criminals his entire adult life. Above all, Joe knows the terrible cost of terrorism, losing his wonderful wife, Shannon, a great American hero, rest in peace, who was killed in the fight against ISIS. Joe continues to honor her legacy by staying in the fight. Joe will help keep America safe by eradicating all terrorism. Da-da-da. Congratulations, Joe. Bro, he appointed him. He nominated him. Trump hand selected this guy to run this division. Hand selected him. The guy comes out and basically says, Hey, you're not like a whistleblower, but he's like, hey, this Iran war is a fucking disaster. And I'm out. And Trump is like, it's a good thing he was out. I never, I never, I never really knew the guy, I never really liked the guy, never really trusted him. And this guy, this guy's pinned tweet on Twitter is Trump nominating him for this role. I sit here and I look at this chart, let's go hourly, on this crude oil chart. And I cannot help but feel that basically under no circumstances will I sell the small long that I re-entered. Small size, high leverage. If I get stopped, it means the war is over. And if I don't, it means I do really well. But every headline that comes out to me is terrible. It just is terrible. And you cannot convince me that this guy sitting down is like bullish for the war ending. On the Citrina Still Right section, we haven't been covering this that closely. We've been distracted, but layoffs accelerating. Crazy. Actually, crazy. One Oracle confirmed cutting 20 to 30,000 jobs, and sources are saying the real number is closer to 45,000. I'm hearing it isn't just about AI data center costs. Word has they've been running pilot programs with AI agents doing database administration work for eight months. One source told me a team of 47 DBAs in Austin got replaced by three senior architects, plus automated Oracle Cloud Infra. The agents are handling routine maintenance, performance tuning, backup verification. Stuff that used to require armies of L4 and L5 engineers. Definitely AI driven. Second, and market performed well. Like green, like uh when did this come out? March 11th. Let's see, Oracle. I guess on the day at the top. Yeah, so not great. It's down a little bit. Yeah, it was like an earnings pop at the same time. Second, Amazon confirmed 16,000 layoffs, but the insider sources are telling me the story is much worse. Um, they're saying the 16k number is just phase one. Internal docs show another 14,000 cuts. A director in AWS walked me through the new efficiency matrix. Entire teams being replaced by two to three senior engineers running clawed sonnet workflows. Crazy. Amazon stock. This was announced March 11th as well. Also at the top, basically flat, but flat, flat. Third, meta HR sent a target of 20% unregretted attrition for 2016-2017. One in five employees is supposed to leave or get pushed out every year. Run the math and see what that does to a team. If you joined four years ago with a squad of 10, statistically, six of those original people are gone. Crazy. Huge layoffs. While we haven't been talking about AI that much, I think we're getting to the point where we're gonna start to see the second and third order effects of like the block setting. We'll probably look back and say block and Jack Dorsey set the first domino, right? That's probably what we're gonna say. That that was the first domino. It's crazy because block overhired. I don't really think block overhired, bro. We did the math. We did the fucking math, and the math was like, eh, no. So maybe some. Maybe some. Vanity Fair dropped an article today titled Crypto's True Believers Demand to be taken seriously. They partied like rock stars, searched for aliens, practiced survivalism, and sometimes showed up without shoes. Then crypto winter came and they lost billions. Here are the representatives of the crypto market. Number one, Olaf, the Bitcoin Playboy. Number two, Mike Novogratz. By the way, when I have my ascension, I'm not mad at it at all when I have my ascension. Read the captions on the picks. When Carson Wee is not running one of crypto's largest headphones, he can be found jetting to the United Arab Emirates, where he was recently spotted beach blonde on a mega yacht celebrating Token 2049. A far cry for a preacher's kid. Second, Michael Novogratz, the Wall Street Rebel. Before he became a multi-billionaire, Novogratz felt the distance between his world and his college roommates. He remembers emailing his mom, quote, rich people's sheets kick the shit out of our sheets. Three Meltum Demores, Demiores, Demores, the Kator Venture Evangelist, the Crucible Capital founder judges potential investments on a sliding scale of Riz and Tiz, Charisma and Autism. Stop. That's not a real quote. Here's the secret to lasting a really long time. You become the main character. Everybody knows who I am, but nobody really knows why. Chat, yes or no? You know who she is? Yes or no? Be honest, yes or no. All I need 151 answers. You know who she is? Yes or no? I know who she I mean, I like know of her, but I don't really know why. She's the Adams over bits originator. No, she is not. Danny Ryan, the barefoot builder, running Etherealize, a company attempting to bring Wall Street onto the blockchain. As Ryan spending his days talking to men in suits, which is an adjustment from his old gig designing apps for a duty-free theme park on the Mexican border. Kathy Wood, the market profit. Look, all love to Kathy Wood, but I gotta do it. Oh, it's actually not bad. It's actually not doing bad. It's actually not doing bad. Respect. The market profit. Shout out to Kathy. Wood's Exchange Traded Fund Ark is named after the Ark of the Covenant, the gold-covered chest described in the book of Exodus that carried the Ten Commandments. She has also been crowned the best stock picker in the market in 2020 and the worst in 2022. Last but not least, former guest of the Thread Guy stream, Devin Finzer and I believe his wife, Yuchi Lyra Koo. The build-a-bear in the product mommy. Finzer met Koo just as his NFT Marketplace Open C was approaching a$13 billion valuation. I crashed a New York Fashion Week party that she was hosting at her penthouse, says Finzer. It was like all these crypto OGs, and she was just brilliantly immersed. Five years later, the two are relaunching OpenC, which cratered in 2022 together. This is crypto's Vanity Fair. And Devin Finzer gets a feature immediately after announcing that OpenC token is delayed again. Chat, it's never gonna come out. I mean, I don't even want to talk shit about crypto companies anymore because what's the point? What am I gonna say about OpenC? Like, what am I gonna say about OpenC? Seriously, what am I gonna say about OpenC other than we don't want it? I mean, what am I gonna say about OpenC that you haven't already heard? A million like what am I supposed to say about OpenC? I mean, yeah, it's a dumpster fire, dude. But is it their fault NFTs are dead? No, I don't think so. But you gotta admit that the timing of that article is hilarious. What did they raise at in 2018? All that I know is that there was I think there was a round raised at like a billion in 21, and it was marked up as much as 15. I think 13 billion dollars was the top. And I know a lot of people didn't sell that C or like were like series A or whatever, up 13x at a B, at 13 B, and didn't sell, and walked away with nothing. I don't think it's like worth zero, but I mean it's not worth a lot. Let's watch this. 1.5x.
SPEAKER_03The biggest risk to the United States economy was never the AI bubble, it was never China, and it was never the orange man in the Oval Office. It's something much more boring, and it's something you've likely never heard about, unless you've gone deep down the finance rabbit hole, and that's exactly why nobody's paying attention to it. Because if you've been wondering why mortgage rates refuse to fall, why stocks randomly freak out every few months, and why the Federal Reserve can talk about cutting rates but financial conditions still feel tight, the answer doesn't start in Washington. It starts in Tokyo, and more specifically, in the most boring asset on earth, Japanese government bonds.
SPEAKER_05A few moments later.
SPEAKER_03And this is the main point of the video, because for 30 years, the United States benefited substantially from being on the receiving end of the world's largest carry trade, and now that trade is unwinding. And as Ray Dalio said, the bond market is the backbone of all markets and the interest rate that determines what all asset returns are going to be. And what we are currently seeing is a tangible catalyst reshaping the foundation of the bond markets. And there's a reason why traditional financial media is ignoring this. It's because it's not clickable, and because it wouldn't trend on Twitter. Nobody wants to hear, let's discuss the cross-currency carry trade and how Japanese institutions are reallocating capital. Because that requires patience and nuance, and more brain cells than doom scrolling allows for. Instead, people want inflation, they want AI, and they want whatever NVIDIA did last week. They want the topics that are visible, loud, and create headlines. So instead, the narratives become dramatically oversimplified to, if the Fed cuts rates, financial conditions will ease. And that's not necessarily true, and that's the lie we're being sold. That one rate cut fixes everything, that liquidity is automatic, and that someone somewhere will always show up to buy our debt. But what if they don't? And what if the largest foreign holder of US treasuries decides to take a step back? Well then you see global liquidity tighten, and liquidity is the oxygen in markets.
SPEAKER_07Stable coin? Like, okay, so basically saying that we don't have a marginal buyer of our bond anymore? Because the yen is dead. Is it actually just stable coins getting approved? Is it actually just stable coins? Infinitely bid bonds forever? This is what I've been saying, yeah, but I never understood it. Huh? Who knew that was a thing? That's fascinating. What are the size of how do I even uh okay, wait, wait, wait, okay, okay, okay. We actually I know exactly how to do this because we have the all single powerful AI that can do everything.
SPEAKER_06Roughly how much money was being spent on bonds, on buying bonds from the Yen Kerry trade.
SPEAKER_07Um to the oil trade I can relate to how much you how you were thinking about the trade. Couldn't find anyone else, YouTubers' friends, who I can discuss and didn't think that was crazy, maybe push from the oil that we're trading commodities. Star Lord, welcome to the show, baby. I can have some fun here. Whoa. About 10 to 20 trillion. How much can Tether spend buying bonds, right?
SPEAKER_06No, 26 and including your growth.
SPEAKER_07Holy shit, I fucking I get it now. I fucking get it now. This was good Alexander's thesis too, right? Oh, I get it! I get it, we got a long way to go. Oh my god, they have to rip stable coins.
SPEAKER_06Oh man! Wow! Wow! The buyer of our bonds are gone because they jacked rates. If that buyer doesn't get replaced, what happens to US economy? Wait a second, wait a second, wait a second.
SPEAKER_07It's not dead. Um, less demand for treasuries, no one wants to buy our debt. Okay, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. Yields are structurally elevated, tenure doesn't go back two to three percent. There's reprices every long duration asset. Housing, growth stocks, private equity, it's not a cross event, it's a slow suffocation.
SPEAKER_06Um before we talk about replacing, let's just assume yen carry trade is dead, and there's nobody left to buy. What happens to economy?
SPEAKER_07Whoa, yields spike hard, mortgage rate follow, housing market seizes, nobody sells, nobody buys. Whoa, government interest explodes. Oh, their interest gets so bad. Private equity is uninvestable, sovereign debt spiral. Okay, wait.
SPEAKER_06So now enter stable coins.
SPEAKER_07Whoa, stable coins are obviously the next marginal buyer to replace. So basically, the economy's cooked, interest rates get so ridiculous. There's no one to buy these bonds, bond yield long dated bond yields go crazy. Crazy and then nobody can afford to borrow anything. Stimulation in the economy gets fucked, money stops transacting. I have that right, right? Like, let's assume there was no one no one came in to buy the hole that's left of the carry trade dying. Yields go crazy, nobody can afford anything. Nobody can borrow money. Stimulation growth stops, expansion stops. Do I have that right? I think that I do.
SPEAKER_06Then how much by pressure do they currently provide bonds? And what has to happen for that to get to ten to twenty three? Wow, wow, wow, wow, wow, wow, wow, wow, wow.
SPEAKER_07Oh, they passed a genius ass.
SPEAKER_02Okay, okay. Okay, okay, okay, okay, okay, okay, okay.
SPEAKER_07So Tether does one fifty. So they do like nowhere close. The Genius Act is legal stable coins in the United States of America. So we basically get the hundred acts to stable coin supply. So we have two hundred access to stable coin supply. To buy enough bonds because that's how they make money. That's exactly why. We're connected to that. The US government has a bond demand problems and stable coins with the most elegant solution they've ever found. You get a private sector entity that must be must by law buy your debt. It requires zero government balance sheet expansion. It's a backdoor QE mechanism that doesn't show up as money printing. Because instead of the government buying fucking bonds with a QE keeping rates down, yields down, expansion high, stable coins do it because it's how they fucking get rich.
SPEAKER_06Ho, Vejo, come back!
SPEAKER_07The Genus Act is physical policy disguise crypto regulation. Trump Abbott is procreating because they like Bitcoin. They're pro-stable coin because they need buyers of treasuries. As China, Japan, and others reduce exposure. Wow. Stablecoins are a replacement mechanism. Oh my god, I get it. Scott Bess understands this. I fucking get it. The trades. Circle, Coinbase, Visa MasterCard. Oh, wait, what did MasterCard do today? I don't know. How about acquired stablecoin infrastructure startup for$1.8 billion? Oh. If stablecoin 10 to 50x and become structural treasury buyers, long end yields stay more control than the bear case suggests.
SPEAKER_06Why is it good for the economy? If long yields stay down because stable coins are twapping bonds. Wow.
SPEAKER_07Oh wow. Oh wow. Long yields are the price of money for everything in the economy. Mortgages are cheap, corporate debt is cheap, government interest expenses stay manageable, equity valuations stay elevated, dollar doesn't spike violently. Wow. So how do we print 100x more min, I guess, stable coins. Chat, I fucking get it. I get it, I get it, I get it, I get it, I get it, I get it, I fucking get it. Yeah, they get minted. You know what I meant. Global dollar reserves coming on chain. Oh my god, BlackRock tokenized everything. Emerging market adoption, banks issuing stable coins, tokenized market money funds, BlackRock. Oh my fucking god.
SPEAKER_06Chat, I get it. I get it, I get it, I get it, I get it. Wow. Wow, oh wow, oh wow.
SPEAKER_07What happens to Bitcoin price? Also, yeah, buildle, which we had the fucking securitize guy on. Mocha, what's good? What happens to Bitcoin price if we meant a hundred X more stable coins? Wow. This is why they need to get clarity passed. Directionally up massively. Stable coins are the primary armor of crypto. Wow. How beautiful was this? This is what it's all about. You know? This is what it's all about, really. This is what it's all about. Um, it's what it's all fucking about. Okay, now for the so now we understand the importance of genius. No, not clarity. This is genius. Genius has already passed. They basically said this is what you have to do to make it legal to mint a stablecoin in the US. Um, the moment you've all been waiting for. Not great. Uh, plus 2.7% in 30 days. Clarity laws banks to get involved. Okay, cool, cool, cool, cool, cool, cool, cool, cool, cool. I don't ATH, I guess. 13.315 billion. We have to 100 exit. All roads lead to crypto. Everything leads to crypto. All roads lead to crypto stablecoin issuers whopping long dated bonds to keep rates down, stimulate the United States economy, and send Bitcoin to many, many, many millions of dollars. Wow. Wow. How about that for a fucking thesis? How about that, huh? Huh? How about that for I'm new and I like the stream? How about that? How about them? How about them apples? Huh? After six years in crypto, I understand stable coins. How about them apples, huh? Alright. Fei Zhao is the GOAT. Okay? He's one of these macro guys that just really understands CT and our culture. And I really want to talk to him about the war, the oil trade, but like headline trading, Anon's running Twitter, the whole discussion. What's up, man? Welcome back to the stream, dude.
SPEAKER_00Dude, good to be back with you. You've been killing it since the last time we chatted.
SPEAKER_07Thanks, man. You too. You're uh I I I I don't recommend much content to the stream, but I'm like, you got you have to tap in. It's it's an absolute must when when you post a recording. So it's good to see you, man. How you been?
SPEAKER_00I've been good, you know. I've just been uh trying to be as as uh non-introspective as possible, you know, just trying to not think about anything ever. You know, just trying to move fast.
SPEAKER_07Dude, I said like SF text C needs to just like elect one person. He's the only one that's allowed to go on podcasts and speak, and nobody else should be allowed to.
SPEAKER_00Dude, you should run their PR. I was I was listening to you say that. I was just like, it's insane. Like they you just have these guys, these like I don't know, autistic SF guys that get out there and just say the most tone-deaf things of all time. And it's just like it's brutal.
SPEAKER_07It is pretty brutal, it's hard to watch, but at least it gives us some content to talk about. But uh man, the last three weeks and my uh my entrance into the geopolitical career has been has been something we've talked a uh a little bit, but my favorite topic that I've learned through the the geopolitical stuff is that well, at a baseline, finding correct and accurate information it feels like it's impossible, right? Like the news is wrong and late, YouTube is wrong and late, everyone in these, like in the Middle East is like going to going to jail for posting footage of what's happening. You're listening to Trump versus whoever is in charge in Iran, and there's maybe some level of truth, but they're both posturing, they're both tacoing together, they're both LARPing, they're both like, you know, what like Pete Heggsath, how much of what he won't say, how many people are dead. Like it's like there's just like a lot of posturing and misinformation going on. And the people that are known for covering this at news outlets, uh don't do a good job. And the people that do do a good job are these fucking random anonymous. Like my list that I gave the chat is you, Pee PP Poo-Poo, chump like Chumba Wumba, and Calvin for like a couple hours. It got a little bit ridiculous, and a couple others, but it's like these these Twitter Anans are trading this. Like, I think I saw like Citadel lost like 2% on the oil squeeze, and PP Poo-Poo posted a PL of like six million dollars. Like, he just like destroyed Citadel in the order books, these like random Anons. And we see this in crypto all the time, right? This is like the crypto game, but it's crypto, and you're like, yeah, of course, it's beam coins, it's on chain, you know. Citadel doesn't want to trade this stuff. Well, chain street was, but whatever. But when you see it on like oil, it's like it's a pretty eye-opening revelation, and then second, you're starting to see this like crypto fin twit macro crossover that has been so electric to watch. And yeah, I mean, you're one of these accounts that I mean you cover this shit better than Fox News. Like, what do you think of just that whole like transition that we're seeing towards I don't know, independent trader journalism, whatever you want to call it?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I think I think it's the best thing ever. Like, I I just you know, I would say the the other side of that argument of what you said there is people that get pissed off that when when something happens, suddenly all of CT or the timeline becomes an expert in that thing, and then then they get all upset, right? And they're like, Oh, you know, last week we were experts in this, and now we're expert in the trade of form. But it's like, I don't know. I've I've I've seen and you know, I'm I'm young, but I've seen enough of these over the years now to understand that like especially this cohort of of crypto traders, I think it's I think it's so cool to see them moving into these other markets. And I like you know, you you you get the elitists that say like, oh, you know, you have to you have to be Pierre Andoran to be an oil trader. Like, yes, there is a certain level of respect you need to give, but also like I've I've seen you know guys like yourself or I don't know, like um David or like Crypto Ethan, these guys who who have been really great crypto traders and now are starting to experiment in macro a lot more and are doing really well and are really good at digesting and looking for for legitimate information effectively. Um, whereas like the boomers are just getting you know distracted or or thinking AI slop is real. But like we've like these crypto traders who have just been you know, they've been PvPing in the trenches against like people that have just been you know extracting and that sort of thing for so many years are so war hardened that they have this skill set now that just naturally developed that they can apply to these other markets, and I think it's been really cool to watch. Like, I am I am all for it. I think it's awesome.
SPEAKER_07A lot of these guys that we mentioned, the chumbawambas of the world, are also really bearish on macro and have been for a while. And I got a little bear pilled there for a while, and I I wasn't trading it, but I'm just thinking to myself, holy fuck, if I was actually a bear and I was running the numbers and doing the math, and I had been bearish, I would be driving myself absolutely insane, just like losing my mind. And it's like uh, you know, three three tankers blow up in Hormuz, spy is like down like minus point one percent, just like nothing. What is your read on where what period we're entering over the next I don't know, three, six months on probably like Mac like equities?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, yeah. Um dude, it's it's tough to be a bear. Like I I've said this many times that I almost never short anything ever. For me, it's either cash or or long, cash. You know, sometimes I'll punt on on on on little things, like maybe I'll buy some some puts here and there as like a partial hedge, but um I'm always pretty much net long or just have more cash. And and I think to me, that's just you know, that's what I did in Liberation Day in April, is that I I didn't catch the short, but I had a lot of cash to buy at the bottom. Um I think it's just it's it's it's really tough to be a sustained bearer. You're fighting so many different things. You're fighting you're fighting a little present, a literal president who wants to make sure assets go up at all costs. Like that's one. You're fighting, yeah, you're fighting the passive behemoth of just like people that get their paycheck and plug it into index funds every couple of weeks. You're you're fighting, you know, options have just become hugely popular over the last few years, and with that growth, options now impact indices more so. So now, you know, when when you buy a call, there's an options market maker on the other side of that trade who's hedging that other side, and that has impact on the market. And you know, if you have whether it's like a you know, they talk about positive or negative gamma environments, and like if you're in a positive gamma environment, basically they want to keep they want to keep price range bound, and anytime it goes lower, they will they will buy reflexively to hedge their books, and it's kind of the opposite in a negative gamma environment. So more and more you have options that impact uh markets overall. So you just have you're finding so many different things. It's it's really difficult. So even though thematically, I probably agree that look, like if you if you look at the history of of economies, you get a big oil shock like this, and most of them lead to recessions, you know, eight to twelve months down the line. But but the hard part is the sequence of events to get there too, right?
SPEAKER_07Like, how do you get there?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, to get there because because to get there, you you know, initially you have the hawkish reaction because oil up, inflation up, and then central banks have to be hawkish into that. Um, and it's only afterwards that that happens that you get the demand destruction and the recession. And then throughout that whole time, like we've been seeing over the last few weeks, there my my belief that the reason we haven't seen markets go down that much is that everybody nobody wanted to actually sell their their books, they just bought puts to hedge it, and and they were just hoping that okay, I'm gonna hold these puts and then I'll make it I'll make some cash on it, and then I'll I'll keep my longs. Yeah. Um, but when everybody buys puts at the same time, everybody's hedged, and then you don't get that that that move lower. So so pits put skew is super elevated. So it's sort of because it's an interesting contrast to show that against these information games on Twitter these days now, where everybody gets smart to the next thing really quickly, but because everybody does that at the same time, the dynamic of that reflexively makes it so that it doesn't happen, if that makes sense.
SPEAKER_07Where are you right now with like the oil trade and the uh Iran conflict? I know it's a big question, but where, like, yeah, where are we in this process and how have you traded and or thought about this conflict as it's going on? Since I think February 28th was the initial strikes.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I've been trying to trying to get a good understanding on how to think about all of this. So, yeah, we had the initial shock at the end of February, and then now the name of the game is like in terms of what's relevant to the economy and markets, it's all about like the Strait of Hormues. And everybody's been, of course, focused on the oil market and what's been going on there, but it's also important to look at the other important commodities that flow through the Strait of Hormuz, like Qatar is they they they export 20% of the world's LNG, and that that got hit by a by a drone by Iran. So they they haven't been producing LNG for the past like two weeks at all. So even though we're seeing you know the odd oil tanker from Iran move through still, um, those other sectors and commodities, like the LNG market, if you take off 20% of the world's LNG supply, like that's not something that you fix really easily. And the same thing with the helium market, which is super important for basically going into the AI data center build-out and like chips, helium is an incredibly important commodity, and a huge proportion of helium comes through the straight-of-form use. So those other sectors that I don't think have been talked about enough are are really important to keep in mind of how it trickles through. And so, are you like are you long oil at at here? I'm not long oil specifically, I'm long or short a few different things. Like, I don't know, to be honest, I think trading direct oil futures is really fucking hard. And like I'm stoked that you made money, but I'm not yeah, I'm not thinking I'm gonna make a career out of this, by the way. Yeah, no, for sure. But it's it's it's difficult for a few different things. Um it's it's very it's a very efficient and sophisticated market. Like, there's some very well-regarded oil-specific hedge funds that have blown up before. Like, I don't know if if people are listening, go Google Pierre Andurand. Like, he's people view him as like one of the best oil hedge fund managers, and he's he's blown up funds. Like, it's it's a really difficult market during this or previously. No, previously. Um, I don't I don't remember when. I I think it might have been 08 or something. Really well-known oil hedge fund guy. Um so there's there's a few different things I'm looking at. My my big conviction right now is honestly on on the US dollar rallying, the Dixie. Um, and it's because so this is how I think about it is that a lot of the stuff going through this trade of Hormuz impacts Asian economies and the European economy. Like Japan is is highly dependent on the flows coming through there and other Asian markets and and that sort of thing. Like Qatar's LNG capacity, all that volume that goes to those countries. The US is actually this is the first major oil shock where they're largely energy independent. Like we had the the US shale boom in the 2010s. So so the US is actually in a in a much better spot than in in 08 when we saw the last like big oil surge on in 2022 or like the 1970s. Like the the US can actually produce its own oil now and be largely independent. Um, you can't say that about those other countries. So, my thought process is that this is a really, really bad situation, way worse for Asian markets and and European markets than the US. I actually think the dollar will rally because all these other countries are probably gonna go into recession if this holds on for much longer. Like you just can't operate under the situation.
SPEAKER_07That was a stream today, Tuesday, March 17th, 2026. Every day we fucking bang, we make it happen, we make shit shake. This is what we do every single day. If you like the stream, you're gonna like it more every single day. Because this is what the fuck we do. We pull up, we make shit shake, we made shake happen. This is what we do every day. Some new shit, some cool shit, some some some blue shit, whatever. It's what we do. Money blue, money green. Happy St. Patrick's Day, it's a holiday, it's a national one, be good, be great. I love y'all. See you tomorrow. Say that's the P MBS T every single day. I've catch you gonna catch you on the soon. Have a great day, let's boost.