Beating the Oil Market, Hyperliquid at $40, Iran War Update, Pokémon Go is an AI Company? - Threadguy: March 16th, 2026

Timestamps:

00:44 - How I beat the oil market 
09:14 - i explained hormuz to my date 
14:24 - Trump's 180 on the oil blockade 
20:08 - Why Hyperliquid is ripping
22:53 - Pokemon Go was an ai data farm

Transcript

SPEAKER_02 0:05

Welcome back to the stream. It is so good to see some beautiful fucking faces in the stream. What a weekend we had, huh? We spend like five hours a day now prepping stream. And the stream got so much fucking better. Once when I was in LA, bro, we used to just roll out of bed and I would stream. And it was cooked. It was actually cooked. I used to roll out of bed and we just go live instantly. Since moving to this background, we actually spend like six hours a day prepping stream. Tulip King, Daniel, Malcolm, the whole squad. And it's turned it into absolute cinema. And this is just, bro, this is just the energy of 2026. And with that, let's get into it. This is what I tweeted. Um, I said fully TP the oil trade. There's too many forces working against Sting Long here. We get a ton of reports of this trade is opening back up to everyone but the US and Israel, which assumes we are closer to a resolve. I don't know. Not worth getting crushed by a fake headline, arbitrary Trump declaring victory or tacos. Bam. I still think there's a huge spread between how the market is positioned and how out of control the conflict has spiraled. But I DK if oil is the best vehicle to express that anymore from here. We monitored the entire situation and covered the trade live on stream, which you guys can vouch for. Monday through Friday, 3 30 p.m. EST every day. Here was the actual trade entry, average entry. I bid 83, I bid 84, then I bid 88. Average was 85. Uh fully TP, just stacked it all of it. One clip at 101.32. Right now it's trading at 926. Okay, here's the deal. I originally entered the oil trade at like 78 crude on low size, high leverage. Okay, I think it was like 7, 8, 9, 10x leverage. On low size, high leverage. And I was able to ride it until maybe 84, give or take. And once we got to $84 on hyperliquid, I sat here and I thought to myself that there is a legitimate size, real opportunity to make money on this oil trade. And it is going to be a really rocky road to get there. And there is just no way that I'm going to be able to get there on 10x leverage. Like I'm just not. It's going to be rocky. It's going to be a fucking mess. And I'm just not going to make it. I'm not going to make it on 10x leverage. I'm not. I'm not going to make it a 10x leverage. And I realize that the only way I'm going to make the money that I think I deserve to make on this trade, or I think is on the table for me to make, is going to be if I fucking put my dick on the table, get long with size on really low leverage, and I can survive tacos. I can survive fake headlines. I can survive fuckery. Best in the order books. I'm just like, man, if I'm going to get through this, this isn't like a Bitcoin breakout. This is an oil long, which is an essential resource to the United States of America, who is actively pushing the narrative that we're winning this war. Um, media is banned and illegal. You can't talk about what's happening. Nobody knows. It's headline versus headline, and they're just gonna be shakeouts and fuckery. And so I sold Palantir, I put my balls on the table, spot, then up to 2x and said, I'm gonna ride 2x and I will be able to make it through wicks, leverage cascades, any fuckery that happens. And so let's just like talk through the whole trade. So I closed my my small size long and I I put on some some big size low leverage. And the reason I did it is that I I mean we basically collectively realized as a group here, as a stream, as a community, that the market was pricing the war ending in 72 hours. And it was like our first time, it was my first time covering geopolitics seriously, but it was very clear the market was not gonna that the war was not gonna end in 72 hours. Polymarket is saying it's not gonna end tomorrow. Everything is saying it's not gonna end tomorrow, but for some reason, deep oil futures, like oil market price, and then like deep futures were saying, like, no, no, this shit's gonna be over. And so really, we missed the trade, like we really missed the trade, okay? Because the real trade was over the weekend, February 28th, when the strike happened, oil went from like $70, $80 up to, I mean, let's like look at Brent $70, $80 to like, let's see. Ooh, ooh, a I mean, look at this thing. It went from like $70, $80 up until 114 on Brent. And we missed it straight up. It was early. I wasn't paying attention to escalation. Like, we missed this trade. But something happened in this candle, which we could say whatever we want, but at the end of the day, we realized the line in the sand for the United States of America is they cannot have Brent over 100. And so, what exactly went down on that red candle? Was it Bescent? Was it a fake headline? I look, all I can do is speculate. I can't really tell you for certain what happened, but we know some fuckery went down, and they figured out how to get oil back down to like $82. And so this was when we started covering it really closely. And what we did was we came to the stream with a presentation. And the presentation was that the United States' response to cap the oil price was the SPR and releasing 180 million barrels in some change from the SPR. But we did the math and we realized, you guys remember we did that like slideshow presentation, and we basically realized, again, collectively, that the announcement was complete bullshit. Like complete non-event bullshit. And so they parlayed the SPR with a Trump taco and they candled oil down to like $80. And I'm staring at this presentation and doing the math in my head and like, okay, we're missing 20 million barrels of oil a day. The SPR maximum you can bring into the market is like 2 million barrels a day. We're short 18. The math, like, this is not a solution. And the market is dumping like this is a solution. I'm like, what? Everyone's dumping oil. I'm like, this is no one reading this. What we're reading on stream, we're covering it. Uh is nobody reading this. And so I said, fuck it, bro. I'm entering the trade. I don't know shit about oil. I didn't even know you could trade oil until like two months ago. I've never entered a trade on oil before, but hyperliquid fucking house of finance has oil futures. And so I said, fuck it. I closed my high leverage, low size long. I I put size on the board, up, slid the leverage out of 2x, and I entered. And I entered because I couldn't understand why the market wasn't taking this seriously. And I came on stream and I said that I don't have a price target. My price target to sell is going to be when the market takes this seriously. That was it. That was the entire thesis. Okay. I did some math. I realized the strategic strategic petroleum reserve was fucking bullshit and a complete farce. The market should not be dumping. The straight is closed. Iran is bombing ships, and the market isn't taking this seriously. Okay. So I'm going to enter the trade when they're not taking it seriously, which is right now. And I'm going to exit when the market does take it seriously. Whatever price that may be, that's my trade. Okay? That is my trade. Whatever price that is, I'm out. I'm not, I don't, like, this is the thing, is that I'm not a professional oil trader. Okay. I'm trading sentiment and I'm trading headlines because that's how the market's moving. Market's moving on fake headlines. I'm going to enter on fake headlines. Okay. And so I don't have, everyone kept asking me, what's your price target? What's your price target? I don't have a price target. I'm strictly sentiment and vibes and headlines driven on this. That's how I got in. That's how I got out. And when it becomes consensus that uh oil should be fucking higher and it goes higher, I'm gonna get out. Okay. That's the trade that I wanted to make because I felt like there was free money on the floor and I just wanted to pick it up. Okay. And so that happened. And the one thing I'm gonna say before I conclude this rant is that understanding Twitter is actually all that we need to be good at this game. Like this is I just am increasingly convinced that this is a beatable fucking market, bro. Everything trades like Mega Church, everything trades like crypto, nothing is efficient, which the market just showed us. And if you can understand the spread between sentiment, positioning, and get the Twitter thing right, you're just gonna win. So I sold, I'm out. I I bought a little bit of a position as Cope Insurance at 93.3. Low size, high leverage, just be just in case, because the trade is definitely not open and the war is definitely still going on. But yeah, oil is basically going down in the straight line since we sold. I have a date story I need to cover. I'm not sure if she knows it was a date, but to me it was a date. But the whole time I was just asking her questions. Like I was on stream doing interviews, right? What's going on? What are your hobbies? Like, I'm just like getting the whole, I'm getting the lay of the land. You know what I mean? I'm getting the whole like feeling it out. And so we just talked for like three hours. I didn't say a single nothing. I said nothing about me at all. Okay. Other than I'm like, yeah, I'm in finance. I kept telling I'm in finance. I'm in finance, I'm in finance, I'm in finance, political, pseudo-political commentator, pseudo-spec. I'm in finance. I kept saying, I'm in, I kept ripping, I'm in finance, I'm in finance, I'm in finance. So tell me, and she's like, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. There's no tell me about nothing. Tell me your shit. I need to what does it mean to be in finance? What do you do? What is your what is your job? And I'm like, do you like okay? Do you act like do you actually want to know what my job is? By the way, at this point, it's Saturday morning, and I am, I mean, I'm like balls deep in this oil trade, and I'm getting fried on the timeline as well. So I'm like really, really this is like before I sold and like stopped paying, like logged off for like a day. I'm like really in it. And so she says to me and she's like, no, no, no, no, tell me what you do. What like what do you do? Explain your job to me front to back. I'm like front to back. She's like, I wanted the whole thing. And I'm like, all right, so like there's this thing, and like there's this, like, there was this NFT project called Bored Apes, and then like there's this thing called Twitter Spaces, and then there was this like guy named Alan who like made this product and it was called Pump Fun, and then there was this coin called Go, and then there's this guy named like Andrew Tate, and he lives in Romania, and then there's like this this Donald Trump was like running for president, and he had like his NFT collection, and I spent 25k, and we get like all the way to the back, and she's like, Okay, so what do you talk about right now on stream? Like, what did you talk about yesterday? And I'm like, Okay. Um, do you know anything about the USA-Iran conflict? And she was like, Well, sorta, I guess. And I'm like, Okay, what do you know about oil? And she's like, I don't know, what can you tell me about oil? And I'm like, okay, where do I start? And I basically go front to back, starting at there's this thing called the Strait of Hormuz, which 20% of the world's oil flows through. And she's like, Well, that's that's a lot of oil. Like, how many barrels is that? I'm like, like 20 million, and we start there, and by the end of a 35, 45, no, no, no, no. By the end of like an hour-long rant about Shahid drones and asymmetric warfare and questionable Israel strikes and this Netanyahu, maybe AI video, and the GCC countries and oil fields. And at the very end, I basically go like non-stop for an hour, and at the very end, this girl looks she she stops and she looks me dead in the eyes, and she says, Stop. And I'm like, what? And she's like, I just I just don't get it. It doesn't make sense, and I say, what part doesn't make sense? And she looks at me and she's like, I I she's just kind of stuttering, she's pausing. I just I I I just don't understand how it's possible that the United States of America launched a strike on Iran and didn't have a plan for the Strait of Hormuz.

SPEAKER_01 13:27

That's what I'm saying. That's what I'm saying. And she's like, I don't I just don't buy it. Like, why can't they just open it? And I'm like, no, no, no, the Shahid, I I know.

SPEAKER_02 13:44

And she's like, how long have you known about geopolitics? I'm like, I don't know, like two weeks, two and a half weeks. And she says, wait, and you bought oil before this happened? And I said, I wasn't the first, I didn't make like the best trade, but yeah, I did. And she's like, and you just cover this stuff every day on stream, is what you do on stream. And I'm like, yeah. And she's like, What are you gonna cover when the war is over? And I just look at her and I'm like, Monday through Friday, 3:30 p.m. EST. Two announcements from Trump. I think it was announced two days ago, and this was like shortly before I sold, actually. Um, many countries, especially those who are affected by Iran's attempted closure of the Hormuz Strait, will be sending warships in conjunction with the United States of America to keep the strait open and safe. We have already destroyed 100% of Iran's military capability, but it's easy for them to send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close-range missile somewhere along or in this waterway, no matter how badly defeated they are. Hopefully, China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others that are affected by this artificial constraint will send ships to this area so that Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by a nation that has been totally decapitated. In the meantime, the United States will be bombing the hell out of the shoreline and continually shooting uh Iranian boats and ships out of the water. One way or another, we will soon get the Hormuz Strait open, safe, and free. President Donald J. Trump. Look, even now, even after I sold, it is very clear that the strait is still not open at all. It's not open. And Trump comes out and is basically begging, soon to be threatening, US allies to help. And it's a complete 180 from most of their comms and headlines that you read that basically are saying we are dominating this war, we have complete control. And so still, even with crude oil on hyperliquid right now, I'm looking at it's trading at $92. I think I sold at 102. I think the peak is 105. The straight is not open at all. And it's definitely a stretch that we've got to the point where we're like asking, I don't want to use the word begging, but we're asking China to please help us in negotiating the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. And so the follow-up post is this, which is kind of a long one. March 15th. So this was yesterday afternoon after I had sold. And it reads, Iran has long been known as a master of many media manipulation and public relations. They are militarily ineffective and weak, but are really good at feeding the very appropriate fake news, media, false information. Now AI has become another disinformation weapon that Iran uses quite well, considering they are being annihilated by the day. They showed phony kamikaze boats shooting at various ships at sea, which look wonderful, powerful, and vicious, but these boats don't exist. It's all false information to show how tough their defeated military is. The five U.S. refueling planes that were supposedly struck down and badly damaged, according to Wall Street Journal's false reporting and others, are all in service, with the exception of one, which will soon be flying the skies. Buildings and ships that are shown to be on fire are not. It's fake news generated by AI. For instance, Iran, working in close coordination with the fake news media, shows our USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, one of the largest and most prestigious ships in the world, burning uncontrollably in the ocean. Not only is it not burning, it was not even shot at. Fake news, fake news, fake news. This is a particularly difficult discussion because, as we know, basically all media across the GCC countries and across the Middle East is banned. It's illegal. They're sending people to jail in Dubai, they're sending people to jail all across the Middle East. And if you post anything, you're basically breaking the law as to what's happening. That is why this trade has been so difficult. That's why monitoring this war has been so difficult. I think that's why we've been able to make money on this trade was partly because there's really no way to accurately prove what is real and what is fake. It's been the hardest, it's been the biggest eye-opener for learning about geopolitics for me. Like, it has been. It's like holy fuck. Nothing is real, and there's no way to figure out what is actually real. You are at the mercy of headline fuckery at any second that you're in this in any of these trades. You just are. You're at the mercy of it. Is it is hard. Even for like a terminally online crypto person, it is hard. This, my friends, is the headline that I believe is fake or questionable that basically pushed me over the edge to sell my oil long. Look, I said makes me want to TP IDK, March 14th, Saturday morning. Um, right after my date, by the way. I came back from my date and I'm like, it's time to fucking sell. And so here's where we're at. Sure's been close to 15 days. This is obvious, expected, and verifiable, with few transits occurring only with Iranian approval. I just never imagined the reaction from so many would be flat denial of reality to the point of falling for every lazy PR. The problem is that there is no way to determine what is real and what is not. And so you are at the mercy of fake headlines. I you just are. You really, really, really are with this geopolitical stuff. When media is banned and people are getting censored and people can't speak freely, it's impossible to navigate. No pun intended. It it really is, dude. Look at this chat. Who you guys hype? This is nuts. You know what's crazy is I don't have I don't have any hype right now. It's it's disgusting. My whole life is in this coin right here. My whole life is in this coin. I actually have a lot of crypto stuff to talk about. Let's just like fully switch gears and go crypto mode. Honestly, the timing here is so just beautiful with crypto. It's like Bitcoin is showing itself and its value amongst geopolitical strain and hyper liquid, like Bitcoin showing its value, and hyperliquid is arguably emerging as the most important product in crypto at the same time that stable coins are doing the same. It fucking man, it's fucking beautiful. Really, it is. An article came out today by someone who I think is, and I don't say this lightly, arguably one of the smartest people in all of crypto. And it's Ryan Watkins, and the article is titled The Great Purpification. So I feel like hyperliquid showing the world its importance through the silver trade and through the oil trade. During the past weekend, hyperliquid facilitated over one billion of crude oil trading during heightened fears around the Iran conflict. Traders were able to capture a 30% spot move from Friday's closed to Monday's open, while retail traders everywhere forced to sit up. Also, I wouldn't have been able to close this weekend without hyperliquid. It's just not possible. You get fucked as a retail trader. Over time, however, it may become clear that these exchanges are actually modernizing the trading stack. In much the same way that electronic trading at the tail end of the 20th century transformed how markets handle execution, monitoring, clearing, and settlement. Crypto native exchanges are rethinking how these functions can be integrated and automated within a single system. It's hard to imagine just a few decades ago, the world's trading actively congregated around physical. Exchange floors. Chat. What do we call this?

SPEAKER_01 22:04

What do we call this? What do we call this right here? The pit. Brad Pitt. Olive Pitt. The Pitt. Pittsburgh Steelers.

SPEAKER_02 22:18

And so Ryan Watkins basically argues that hyperliquid is a one trillion dollar opportunity. Perfect access, rather. Right now they're worth about 40 billion dollars. This is hyperliquid right now. Just disgusting. Also, timestamp on the article. 7 09 a.m. on my computer. Yeah, literally right here is crazy. Literally right here. Nuts. Here's the deal. Pokemon Go, one of the most popular games ever. Maybe the most one of the most popular mobile games of all time has spun out an AI division. Okay. Because everybody realized that for multiple years, the entire world was running around catching Pokemon with their location on, their camera open, and basically mapping out the geography of the entire world. And everyone realized holy fuck, Pokemon Go has infinite data, and they are basically now an AI robotics behemoth. Okay. Here's the announcement is the maker of Pokemon Go spun out an AI division. It's working with Coco Robotics and uh autonomous luggage-sized delivery vehicles. You know those fucking delivery robots that drive around and like run into poles and hit people on the street, and they're the they're so bad. They're so fucking annoying and they suck and they're terrible. Yeah, well, they're not gonna suck anymore because they have an insane amount of data from Pokemon Go players starting now. 30 billion images, 100 million active players, 1 million plus popular urban locations. For last mile city delivery, they can't rely on only GPS. So Niantic, the creator, trained a model on every image since Pokemon Go's breakout launch in 2016. The most popular AR AR game ever, and they have one billion plus downloads. Look at this shit.

SPEAKER_00 24:31

Coding, creating new apps. I don't know who created Pokemon Go, but I'm trying to figure out how we get them to have Pokemon Go to the polls.

SPEAKER_02 24:48

Cannot believe it's been 10 years since this. Do you remember this? Look at the shit. Look at this. The world has not been brought together in a way since Pokemon Go 2016. I mean, look at this, it captured the entire world. Oh yes. My mom used to convince me to go on walks with the dogs because we'd go catch Pokemon. As you're watching think about this. Every single one of these people has their cameras on, location enabled, and they're training an AI model for robots to navigate streets, paths, parks, roads, sidewalks, everything. Bro, we were going on dates catching Pokemon. Bro, the Hubs were playing. My homie used to have a golf cart, and we would drive around to the golf cart and we needed an excuse to get on the golf cart, and he'd be like, Wanna catch Pokemon? And we would pick up the shortties in the back of the golf cart and we'd go drive around to catch Pokemon, bro. Like, this is a real this was really happening. And the whole time we're just training a fucking AI model. 143 million people thought they were catching Pokemon. They were actually building one of the largest real-world visual data sets in AI history. Niantic just discovered that photos and AR scans collected through Pokemon Go have produced a data set of over 30 billion images. Niantic was initially funded by the CIA. Okay, bet you didn't know that. The CIA funded Niantic. So that's why we can't have fucking anything nice. And second, is that Niantic is owned by Saudi Arabia, brother. The CIA invests into Keyhole, later acquired by Google and turned into Google Maps, which turned into Niantic. The studio behind Pokemon Go, same founder as Keyhole, board members from the CIA, was acquired by Saudi Arabia, which is owned, bought by Scopely, which is owned by Saudi's Sovereign Wealth Fund. Little did you know when you first downloaded Pokemon Go to run down your street and basically live out every child's dream of catching Pokemon in real life, you were actually training one of the most valuable proprietary AI real-world imaging models that will probably ever be created. Those little fucking Coco robots that drive down the street are about to be perfect. And so you gotta just think that every other game, experience, snap maps, whatever the fuck that requires your location and your camera and your real time information is going to just make more money if they evolve into some AI tool. Every single one of them. Google Maps, Waze, all of them. So Pokemon and Pokemon today. And I had no idea that the CIA had a fucking investment portfolio, bruh.